I was a season-low 7-8 last week and now stand at 39-27 on the year. In particular, I really blew my Tennessee-Georgia, Alabama-South Carolina, Miami-FSU, Green Bay-Washington, and NY Giants-Houston predictions. Not only wrong winners, but way off on score predictions. Hopefully I can bounce back this week.
COLLEGE--scroll to bottom of post, below my NFL picks for my write-up on UVA vs. UNC
Noon
Illinois at No.13 Michigan State
The Illini easily handled Penn State on the road last weekend and have had a solid year, with their only losses coming at home against Ohio State by 11 and against Missouri by 10 on a neutral field. Both OSU and Mizzou are still undefeated. The Spartans are coming off a big win over Michigan, and are trying to earn respect and show they belong in the same conversation in the Big 10 as Wisconsin and Ohio State (they already beat the Badgers this year). Michigan State actually avoids playing the Buckeyes this season because of the Big 10's type of scheduling, so it should be interesting to watch if both of those teams remain undefeated throughout the year. How much respect will the Spartans get compared to the Buckeyes? First, however, they need to win the games they have in front of them. And Illinois should challenge them this weekend. At Illinois, they'd be an upset alert candidate I think, but at MSU the Spartans pull out a 27-20 win.
No. 21 Missouri at Texas A&M
The Tigers have snuck up on me as an undefeated team. They just entered the top 25 but have no real impressive wins, except in their first game against Illinois. The Aggies have had a rough go of it the past two weeks, losing at Oklahoma State (still undefeated) by three and in Dallas to No. 11 Arkansas by seven. This week, A&M finally heads back home to face the Tigers. A&M is a solid squad that has really been tested the past two weeks. It just has played well, but just not well enough to win their last two contests. I like the Aggie offense to get going at home. QB Jerrod Johnson will play well, limit his mistakes, and A&M will end the Tigers' mini-run into the top 25 with a 30-28 victory.
Maryland at Clemson
The Terrapins are 4-1. A great start for the Fridge after a 2-10 record last year. However, it's a soft 4-1. The year started off with a hard-fought win over a Navy team that has turned out to be not as strong as people thought. The Terrapins got leveled at WVU, and their other three wins were against Morgan State, Florida International, and Duke. This will be only the Terps second true road game of the year (Navy game was in Baltimore). Clemson is a disappointing 2-3. The Tigers underperform every year, but I think they will give Maryland too much to handle in Death Valley. The last three weeks, the Tigers have faced Auburn, Miami, and UNC, and been in every game. Clemson may have the worse record, but it is the better team. Tigers win 24-17.
3:30
Texas at No. 5 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are rolling along quite nicely with freshman Taylor Martinez under center. They are putting up nasty numbers on offense (2nd in rushing yards, 9th in points per game) and the defense seems to have picked up where Ndamukong Suh left them last year. And you know the players and fans have had this game circled on their calendars ever since Texas beat them on a last-second field goal in the Big 12 title game last year. Texas is still a solid team, but Nebraska is going to get its revenge. 42-24.
No. 12 Arkansas at No. 7 Auburn
The Tigers have a way of winning close games so far this season. This is another one where I'd be tempted to pick the underdog--in this case the Razorbacks--but they are on the road and I think therefore I like Auburn, but in a close one. 35-34.
No. 15 Iowa at Michigan
The Wolverines were exposed last week by Michigan State as many people predicted. Iowa is recovering from its loss at Arizona still, but has looked tremendous besides that one game. If you take out their game against the Wildcats, the Hawkeyes have beaten their opponents by a combined score of 141-17. Wow. Rich Rod has Michigan headed in the right direction, and I think he'll keep his job this year, but I don't like the Wolverines' defense against QB Ricky Stanzi and the Hawkeyes. Iowa wins 30-13.
6:00
No. 10 South Carolina at Kentucky
The Gamecocks picked up quite possibly their biggest win in school history last week against No. 1 Alabama (I say that without knowing any of their history, although Steve Spurrier did at least say it was his biggest win since he won the national title with Florida). How will they respond on the road at a tough Kentucky team, which gave Auburn all it could handle last week? I think South Carolina will look sluggish but pull out a 26-17 win.
UNC at UVA--keep scrolling....
7:00
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Wisconsin
If there was ever a game for me to pick the upset, it's this one. Ohio State has looked great all year, but did struggle at Illinois. Wisconsin has played well all year as too, with its lone loss coming at MSU. Wisconsin doesn't lose often at Camp Randall Stadium, one of the most daunting places for teams to play in the Big 10, and maybe even the country. When the game is at night and at home for Wisconsin, its record jumps even more I believe. Maybe I'm just afraid to pick the upset, but I don't know if I trust this Badger team to get it done against these Buckeyes this year. I think Ohio State is just a little too strong. It will be a great game, but OSU wins and stays atop the polls with a 28-24 win.
10:15
Oregon State at Washington
The Beavers reentered the top 25 this week with a win at undefeated Arizona. Washington has been alternating wins and losses all year it's time for a victory. I don't think Oregon State can pull off another tough road win a second week in a row. So I thought I'd be picking the upset here, but the Huskies are actually the two-point favorite so I'm once again being boring and going with the favorite. 31-29
NFL
1:00
Baltimore at New England
The Ravens have looked terrific so far this season, but Bill Belichek has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Baltimore finally gives up more than 17 points. I like the Patriots at home, 21-17.
Detroit at NY Giants
The Lions have really gotten their offense on track the past two weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Giants have gotten their defense on track as well. I like New York in a close one, 27-24.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Mike Vick's old team vs. Mike Vick's new team. Philly and Kevin Kolb looked good last week against San Francisco, but not as explosive as when they have had Vick healthy. I like the Falcons in this one, 28-24.
Kansas City at Houston
What has happened to the Texans? After looking terrific in their first two games--especially on offense--they have gotten blown out by 14 and 24 points by the Cowboys and Giants, respectively, the past two out of three games. In the middle, they won unimpressively by seven over Oakland. The Chiefs meanwhile, continued to show they are for real last Sunday, giving Indy all it could handle at home. I like the Chiefs in this one, 24-21.
4:15
Dallas at Minnesota
Everyone probably predicted these two teams to be 3-1 or 4-0 going into this game, not 1-3. But as it stands, both squads are incredibly desperate for a win. Falling to 1-4 could really hurt their playoff chances. Dallas has looked better overall. Bone-headed mistakes and bad luck have kept the Cowboys from going anywhere from 2-2 to 4-0. The Vikings, who had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season, have been lackluster on that side of the ball in 2010. Brett Favre has looked old after looking youthful last year, and now he has elbow tendinitis, and a controversy swirling around him and the team. I feel like this is a game the Cowboys should win, but I trusted them too much last week. So I'm going to pick the Vikings in a move of reverse mojo and hope it works. Vikings, 20-17.
8:20
Indianapolis at Washington
The Redskins, unlike the Cowboys, have shown grit and determination down the stretch in close games, and are 3-2 as a result. The Colts have been mildly disappointing, but have still scored a lot of points. The Redskins have one of the worse defenses yardage-wise in the NFL, but have created lots of turnovers. I don't think they can count on that though against Peyton Manning's offense. I like the Colts, 34-24.
Monday night
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Every AFC South team is 3-2. I like for the Texans to fall to 3-3, Indy to improve to 4-2, and in this one, I like the Jags to go to a surprising 4-2 and the Titans to fall to 3-3. Tennessee is in line to lose this one, having alternated wins and losses all season. The Jaguars offense has really been impressive the past two weeks, scoring 31 points against Indy and 36 against Buffalo. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Chris Johnson should be fun to watch. Jacksonville wins, 27-20.
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THE SOUTH'S OLDEST RIVALRY-North Carolina at Virginia
The Heels and Hoos gear up for their 115th meeting Saturday in Scott Stadium. Only three pairs of FBS teams have met more than these two--Kansas-Missouri, Wisconsin-Minnesota, and Texas-Texas A&M. North Carolina has been snake-bitten in Charlottesville, with Virginia winning the last 14 contests at home. UNC hasn't won in Cville since 1981, despite holding the upper hand going into some of those contests. In 2008, Virginia was down 10-3 and Marc Verica led the team on a memorable, game-tying drive in the final two minutes of the game to send it into overtime--or seemingly. The extra point by Virginia was tipped at the line of scrimmage and barely squirted over the crossbar. All of Wahoo nation breathed a collective sigh of relief and the game headed to extra time. UNC would score a field goal but momentum was on the side of the Hoos big time and Cedric Peerman plunged into the end zone to capture victory for the Hoos, 16-13. I rated this game the No. 3 best UVA game I have ever attended in a column I wrote for the Cavalier Daily last fall. UVA has not lost in the rivalry since a 7-5 debacle in 2005 at UNC and has won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Overall, UNC leads the series 56-54-4.
All signs point to this year being the end of the curse in Cville for the Heels. They are 3-2, but have won three games in a row, the last two over quality teams in ECU and Clemson. The distractions swirling around the program seem not to have bothered them. Their only two losses came against LSU (still undefeated) and GT, and both were close games. Virginia has gotten blown out the past two weeks by FSU and GT. Arguably, the Heels aren't as good as those two teams, but are still certainly better than Virginia. The Hoos looked better last week against GT than the week before against FSU, but it still looks like the Cavs are getting used to playing fast after two games against FCS schools. I'm pretty worried the Hoos won't be able to move the ball against UNC's vaunted defense, which has been great thus far. Last week against the Jackets, Virginia was held to 21 points by a defense still learning Al Groh's 3-4 scheme, and the last touchdown by UVA was late. In 2008, Virginia couldn't move the ball against UNC. The defense kept it in the game though. In fact, in the past fives games between these two schools, Virginia has held North Carolina to 7, 0, 20, 13, and 3 points. Now this year, even UVA's defense has been suspect, especially the past two weeks. The rush defense in particular has been a big area of concern. Normally, I wouldn't be worried about our offense not moving the ball, but this year I am moreso because thus far, in the big games, Virginia's defense has not looked as good as it has in past years under Groh. The Cavaliers will need to come out firing on all cylinders on offense and have maybe their best game of the year. If they get the ball first, they don't necessarily need to score a touchdown, but making a few first downs would at least build confidence and show UNC they are in for a fight and getting that long sought after win in Charlottesville won't be easy. Marc Verica must take shots down field and OC Bill Lazor must make smart play calls that put Verica in position to succeed.
Like I've stated, things look grim for Virginia. UNC is clearly playing better football right now. In 2008, though, they looked like the better team and the curse lived. The Heels came in at No. 18, 5-1 and the Hoos came in at 3-3. The Heels had lost only to Virginia Tech by three. The Cavs were .500 and had won two in a row, but had started the year 1-3, including losses to USC, Connecticut, and Duke by 45, 35, and 28 points, respectively. I don't know if it can be argued that this game looks any more grim than that one did. Virginia has played perhaps two of the toughest teams in the ACC the past two weeks and showed progression from playing the Noles to playing the Jackets. In both games, the Cavs had chances to close the deficit and make it a ball game. Against FSU, UVA was driving in the third with the score 27-7 when a Verica pass was intercepted in the end zone. If we had scored to make it 27-14, with the crowd back in the game, you never know what could've happened. Last week, UVA was inside the 10-yard line early in the 4th, down 27-14, and could not punch it in. This week, UVA will have to take advanatage of every opportunity. The Hoos face a tall task in beating the Heels, but it can be done. It's far from impossible, but they will have to play a terrific game all-around, no doubt.
PREDICTION
So far this year, I have picked UVA's games with my head, not my heart, and I'm 5-0. Unfortunately, my head says the Heels will snap their 14-game slide at Virginia. Unfortunately for UNC, I'm 5-0, and this week I'm picking with my heart. A dark cloud follows the Tar Heels all the time in Cville, muddying their already ugly Carolina blue. The streak lives! 21-18. GO HOOS!
COLLEGE--scroll to bottom of post, below my NFL picks for my write-up on UVA vs. UNC
Noon
Illinois at No.13 Michigan State
The Illini easily handled Penn State on the road last weekend and have had a solid year, with their only losses coming at home against Ohio State by 11 and against Missouri by 10 on a neutral field. Both OSU and Mizzou are still undefeated. The Spartans are coming off a big win over Michigan, and are trying to earn respect and show they belong in the same conversation in the Big 10 as Wisconsin and Ohio State (they already beat the Badgers this year). Michigan State actually avoids playing the Buckeyes this season because of the Big 10's type of scheduling, so it should be interesting to watch if both of those teams remain undefeated throughout the year. How much respect will the Spartans get compared to the Buckeyes? First, however, they need to win the games they have in front of them. And Illinois should challenge them this weekend. At Illinois, they'd be an upset alert candidate I think, but at MSU the Spartans pull out a 27-20 win.
No. 21 Missouri at Texas A&M
The Tigers have snuck up on me as an undefeated team. They just entered the top 25 but have no real impressive wins, except in their first game against Illinois. The Aggies have had a rough go of it the past two weeks, losing at Oklahoma State (still undefeated) by three and in Dallas to No. 11 Arkansas by seven. This week, A&M finally heads back home to face the Tigers. A&M is a solid squad that has really been tested the past two weeks. It just has played well, but just not well enough to win their last two contests. I like the Aggie offense to get going at home. QB Jerrod Johnson will play well, limit his mistakes, and A&M will end the Tigers' mini-run into the top 25 with a 30-28 victory.
Maryland at Clemson
The Terrapins are 4-1. A great start for the Fridge after a 2-10 record last year. However, it's a soft 4-1. The year started off with a hard-fought win over a Navy team that has turned out to be not as strong as people thought. The Terrapins got leveled at WVU, and their other three wins were against Morgan State, Florida International, and Duke. This will be only the Terps second true road game of the year (Navy game was in Baltimore). Clemson is a disappointing 2-3. The Tigers underperform every year, but I think they will give Maryland too much to handle in Death Valley. The last three weeks, the Tigers have faced Auburn, Miami, and UNC, and been in every game. Clemson may have the worse record, but it is the better team. Tigers win 24-17.
3:30
Texas at No. 5 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are rolling along quite nicely with freshman Taylor Martinez under center. They are putting up nasty numbers on offense (2nd in rushing yards, 9th in points per game) and the defense seems to have picked up where Ndamukong Suh left them last year. And you know the players and fans have had this game circled on their calendars ever since Texas beat them on a last-second field goal in the Big 12 title game last year. Texas is still a solid team, but Nebraska is going to get its revenge. 42-24.
No. 12 Arkansas at No. 7 Auburn
The Tigers have a way of winning close games so far this season. This is another one where I'd be tempted to pick the underdog--in this case the Razorbacks--but they are on the road and I think therefore I like Auburn, but in a close one. 35-34.
No. 15 Iowa at Michigan
The Wolverines were exposed last week by Michigan State as many people predicted. Iowa is recovering from its loss at Arizona still, but has looked tremendous besides that one game. If you take out their game against the Wildcats, the Hawkeyes have beaten their opponents by a combined score of 141-17. Wow. Rich Rod has Michigan headed in the right direction, and I think he'll keep his job this year, but I don't like the Wolverines' defense against QB Ricky Stanzi and the Hawkeyes. Iowa wins 30-13.
6:00
No. 10 South Carolina at Kentucky
The Gamecocks picked up quite possibly their biggest win in school history last week against No. 1 Alabama (I say that without knowing any of their history, although Steve Spurrier did at least say it was his biggest win since he won the national title with Florida). How will they respond on the road at a tough Kentucky team, which gave Auburn all it could handle last week? I think South Carolina will look sluggish but pull out a 26-17 win.
UNC at UVA--keep scrolling....
7:00
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Wisconsin
If there was ever a game for me to pick the upset, it's this one. Ohio State has looked great all year, but did struggle at Illinois. Wisconsin has played well all year as too, with its lone loss coming at MSU. Wisconsin doesn't lose often at Camp Randall Stadium, one of the most daunting places for teams to play in the Big 10, and maybe even the country. When the game is at night and at home for Wisconsin, its record jumps even more I believe. Maybe I'm just afraid to pick the upset, but I don't know if I trust this Badger team to get it done against these Buckeyes this year. I think Ohio State is just a little too strong. It will be a great game, but OSU wins and stays atop the polls with a 28-24 win.
10:15
Oregon State at Washington
The Beavers reentered the top 25 this week with a win at undefeated Arizona. Washington has been alternating wins and losses all year it's time for a victory. I don't think Oregon State can pull off another tough road win a second week in a row. So I thought I'd be picking the upset here, but the Huskies are actually the two-point favorite so I'm once again being boring and going with the favorite. 31-29
NFL
1:00
Baltimore at New England
The Ravens have looked terrific so far this season, but Bill Belichek has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Baltimore finally gives up more than 17 points. I like the Patriots at home, 21-17.
Detroit at NY Giants
The Lions have really gotten their offense on track the past two weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Giants have gotten their defense on track as well. I like New York in a close one, 27-24.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Mike Vick's old team vs. Mike Vick's new team. Philly and Kevin Kolb looked good last week against San Francisco, but not as explosive as when they have had Vick healthy. I like the Falcons in this one, 28-24.
Kansas City at Houston
What has happened to the Texans? After looking terrific in their first two games--especially on offense--they have gotten blown out by 14 and 24 points by the Cowboys and Giants, respectively, the past two out of three games. In the middle, they won unimpressively by seven over Oakland. The Chiefs meanwhile, continued to show they are for real last Sunday, giving Indy all it could handle at home. I like the Chiefs in this one, 24-21.
4:15
Dallas at Minnesota
Everyone probably predicted these two teams to be 3-1 or 4-0 going into this game, not 1-3. But as it stands, both squads are incredibly desperate for a win. Falling to 1-4 could really hurt their playoff chances. Dallas has looked better overall. Bone-headed mistakes and bad luck have kept the Cowboys from going anywhere from 2-2 to 4-0. The Vikings, who had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season, have been lackluster on that side of the ball in 2010. Brett Favre has looked old after looking youthful last year, and now he has elbow tendinitis, and a controversy swirling around him and the team. I feel like this is a game the Cowboys should win, but I trusted them too much last week. So I'm going to pick the Vikings in a move of reverse mojo and hope it works. Vikings, 20-17.
8:20
Indianapolis at Washington
The Redskins, unlike the Cowboys, have shown grit and determination down the stretch in close games, and are 3-2 as a result. The Colts have been mildly disappointing, but have still scored a lot of points. The Redskins have one of the worse defenses yardage-wise in the NFL, but have created lots of turnovers. I don't think they can count on that though against Peyton Manning's offense. I like the Colts, 34-24.
Monday night
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Every AFC South team is 3-2. I like for the Texans to fall to 3-3, Indy to improve to 4-2, and in this one, I like the Jags to go to a surprising 4-2 and the Titans to fall to 3-3. Tennessee is in line to lose this one, having alternated wins and losses all season. The Jaguars offense has really been impressive the past two weeks, scoring 31 points against Indy and 36 against Buffalo. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Chris Johnson should be fun to watch. Jacksonville wins, 27-20.
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THE SOUTH'S OLDEST RIVALRY-North Carolina at Virginia
The Heels and Hoos gear up for their 115th meeting Saturday in Scott Stadium. Only three pairs of FBS teams have met more than these two--Kansas-Missouri, Wisconsin-Minnesota, and Texas-Texas A&M. North Carolina has been snake-bitten in Charlottesville, with Virginia winning the last 14 contests at home. UNC hasn't won in Cville since 1981, despite holding the upper hand going into some of those contests. In 2008, Virginia was down 10-3 and Marc Verica led the team on a memorable, game-tying drive in the final two minutes of the game to send it into overtime--or seemingly. The extra point by Virginia was tipped at the line of scrimmage and barely squirted over the crossbar. All of Wahoo nation breathed a collective sigh of relief and the game headed to extra time. UNC would score a field goal but momentum was on the side of the Hoos big time and Cedric Peerman plunged into the end zone to capture victory for the Hoos, 16-13. I rated this game the No. 3 best UVA game I have ever attended in a column I wrote for the Cavalier Daily last fall. UVA has not lost in the rivalry since a 7-5 debacle in 2005 at UNC and has won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Overall, UNC leads the series 56-54-4.
All signs point to this year being the end of the curse in Cville for the Heels. They are 3-2, but have won three games in a row, the last two over quality teams in ECU and Clemson. The distractions swirling around the program seem not to have bothered them. Their only two losses came against LSU (still undefeated) and GT, and both were close games. Virginia has gotten blown out the past two weeks by FSU and GT. Arguably, the Heels aren't as good as those two teams, but are still certainly better than Virginia. The Hoos looked better last week against GT than the week before against FSU, but it still looks like the Cavs are getting used to playing fast after two games against FCS schools. I'm pretty worried the Hoos won't be able to move the ball against UNC's vaunted defense, which has been great thus far. Last week against the Jackets, Virginia was held to 21 points by a defense still learning Al Groh's 3-4 scheme, and the last touchdown by UVA was late. In 2008, Virginia couldn't move the ball against UNC. The defense kept it in the game though. In fact, in the past fives games between these two schools, Virginia has held North Carolina to 7, 0, 20, 13, and 3 points. Now this year, even UVA's defense has been suspect, especially the past two weeks. The rush defense in particular has been a big area of concern. Normally, I wouldn't be worried about our offense not moving the ball, but this year I am moreso because thus far, in the big games, Virginia's defense has not looked as good as it has in past years under Groh. The Cavaliers will need to come out firing on all cylinders on offense and have maybe their best game of the year. If they get the ball first, they don't necessarily need to score a touchdown, but making a few first downs would at least build confidence and show UNC they are in for a fight and getting that long sought after win in Charlottesville won't be easy. Marc Verica must take shots down field and OC Bill Lazor must make smart play calls that put Verica in position to succeed.
Like I've stated, things look grim for Virginia. UNC is clearly playing better football right now. In 2008, though, they looked like the better team and the curse lived. The Heels came in at No. 18, 5-1 and the Hoos came in at 3-3. The Heels had lost only to Virginia Tech by three. The Cavs were .500 and had won two in a row, but had started the year 1-3, including losses to USC, Connecticut, and Duke by 45, 35, and 28 points, respectively. I don't know if it can be argued that this game looks any more grim than that one did. Virginia has played perhaps two of the toughest teams in the ACC the past two weeks and showed progression from playing the Noles to playing the Jackets. In both games, the Cavs had chances to close the deficit and make it a ball game. Against FSU, UVA was driving in the third with the score 27-7 when a Verica pass was intercepted in the end zone. If we had scored to make it 27-14, with the crowd back in the game, you never know what could've happened. Last week, UVA was inside the 10-yard line early in the 4th, down 27-14, and could not punch it in. This week, UVA will have to take advanatage of every opportunity. The Hoos face a tall task in beating the Heels, but it can be done. It's far from impossible, but they will have to play a terrific game all-around, no doubt.
PREDICTION
So far this year, I have picked UVA's games with my head, not my heart, and I'm 5-0. Unfortunately, my head says the Heels will snap their 14-game slide at Virginia. Unfortunately for UNC, I'm 5-0, and this week I'm picking with my heart. A dark cloud follows the Tar Heels all the time in Cville, muddying their already ugly Carolina blue. The streak lives! 21-18. GO HOOS!
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