I just picked one game last week, Virginia-Georgia Tech and incorrectly picked the Yellow Jackets to win. Two weeks ago, I went 8-2 in college picks and 6-3 in NFL picks. I am 71-33 on the year.
No. 4 Oklahoma State at Missouri, Noon FX
Missouri is a good 3-3 team that has had some tough opponents so far this season, with losses to Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. Analysts have Oklahoma State on upset alert here, but I'm not buying it. I think the Cowboys will just score too many points for the Tigers to keep up with, but I do think Mizzou keeps it close going into the second half. As a side note, how about the Big 12, which actually has 10 teams now? Wow. There is some quality football being played in that conference. I might would put it beside the SEC as best conference this year. Only Kansas and Iowa State are having bad years, but Iowa State actually defeated Iowa this season.
Oklahoma State 42, Missouri 31
North Carolina at No. 7 Clemson, Noon ESPN
Clemson came back from being 18 down to beat Maryland 56-45 last week in an incredible game while UNC fell to Miami 30-24 in Chapel Hill. I'd give the Tar Heels a decent shot at bouncing back if this were at home, but I like for the Tigers' dream season to continue with a win in Death Valley.
Clemson 38, North Carolina 21
Boston College at No. 12 Virginia Tech, 3 p.m. ESPN3.com
Lots of years, the Eagles give the Hokies problems, especially in Massachusetts. Not this year, and especially not in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech should roll over what has looked like the worst team in the ACC so far this season.
Virginia Tech 42, Boston College 10
No. 20 Auburn at No. 1 LSU, 3:30 p.m. CBS
LSU will be missing two of its top players this week -- running back Spencer Ware (512 yards, six TDs) and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu (42 tackles, two interceptions with one returned for a TD, four forced fumbles and three recoveries, one of which he took back for a TD) -- for failing drug tests. Backup cornerback Tharold Simon is also suspended. I don't think it will matter for LSU in this game, as the Tigers should have enough to get by the other Tiger team from the SEC West. I think the margin of victory will be closer than if everyone was playing for LSU, but I'm still not expecting a nailbiter. Auburn has had trouble scoring in recent weeks so probably won't be able to take full advantage of the suspensions.
LSU 33, Auburn 17
No. 22 Georgia Tech at Miami, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
The Yellow Jackets are attempting to bounce back from an upset loss to Virginia while Miami picked up its first ACC win of the season on the road at UNC. Miami is 3-3 this season but its three losses are all by single digits. I think the Jackets bounce back and hand the Hurricanes another close loss. Miami head coach Al Golden has the 'Canes improving though, and I think they'll get to at least six wins this year and get to a bowl game.
Georgia Tech 31, Miami 28
Maryland at Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ABC
This is a difficult game to pick. Florida State is 3-3 and has underachieved yet again this season and has yet to beat a good team. At home several weeks ago, the Seminoles lost a tough 23-13 game to Oklahoma that started a three-game slide for FSU -- the 'Noles also lost to Clemson and Wake Forest by identical 35-30 scores. You could say the Terps have underachieved this season also as they sit at 2-4. But last week, C.J. Brown got the start for Maryland at quarterback, replacing Danny O'Brien (who was ACC Freshman of the Year in 2010) and helped the Terps put up 45 points on Clemson in a strong effort. I think Clemson was taken by surprise somewhat with Brown and FSU will be ready at home and will be able to slow down the speedy signal caller.
Florida State 38, Maryland 28
USC at Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m. NBC
I like the way Notre Dame has played since their 0-2 start to the season. USC has struggled at times this year and I think the Irish win this one in a close game at home.
Notre Dame 36, USC 32
No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 16 Michigan State, 8 p.m. ESPN
The Michigan State defense is really good and will easily give quarterback Russell Wilson and the Wisconsin offense the toughest challenge it has seen yet. The Badgers have yet to scores less than 35 points and Michigan State, besides one bad 31-13 loss at Notre Dame, has yet to give up more than 14 points, so something's gotta give. Wisconsin hasn't really been challenged yet this year except for early in its 48-17 whooping of Nebraska. Wisconsin lost at Michigan State last year but it did not have the dynamic Wilson at quarterback (I'm not sure why Wisconsin has to play at MSU again; I suppose it has to do with the new-look Big Ten with the divisions and it somehow messed with scheduling). The Badgers lead the nation in scoring. I think this game will be tight and the Spartans will give the Badgers all they can handle but it won't be enough in the end.
Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 28
No. 25 Washington at No. 8 Stanford, 8 p.m. ABC
Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian has done a good job with the Huskies this season and they have clearly progressed. In their first game of the year, Washington eeked out a win over FCS defending champion Eastern Washington. Their last two games, the Huskies have cruised by Colorado and Utah. They put up a respectable fight in their third game of the season in a 51-38 loss to Nebraska. I think the Huskies will get a wake up call against the Cardinal. Stanford has been going about its business without much fanfare this season, besides everyone saying Andrew Luck is the nation's best quarterback. As a whole, though, I think Stanford this year is being overlooked. It is fifth in the nation in both points and points against and the Cardinal hasn't scored lower than 37 points so far this season. Washington is playing well but is going to run into a buzzsaw in this one.
Stanford 45, Washington 27
N.C. State at Virginia , 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
I think for Virginia to beat N.C. State, it needs to follow the same formula as it did last week in its win over Georgia Tech -- pound the ball with the running backs and play solid defense. I don't think the Cavs will have trouble with the first part of that plan -- the Wolfpack is 88th in total defense and 77th in run defense. I think offensive coordinator Bill Lazor knows by now that Virginia's bread-and-butter is our three-headed monster at running back -- Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson. We should run them and run them until they can't run anymore or the Wolfpack proves it can stop the run. Neither Michael Rocco nor David Watford has proven they can go out and win a game at quarterback and Virginia lost one of its most reliable receivers this week, Matt Snyder, to a broken foot so the passing game should be managed and not used too much Saturday. Just give each quarterback (if we still plan on using both) some easy throws to loosen up the defense (because N.C. State is likely going to stack the box to stop the run) and take an occasional shot downfield.
The defensive side of the ball is where I'm most worried. I'm sure I sound like a broken record because that's what I say every week. But I just still can't trust this defense yet, even though it gave up just six points in regulation Oct. 1 to Idaho (touchdown came on a blocked punt for a TD) and 14 to Georgia Tech last week (one TD was on an interception return). I hope they prove me wrong. N.C. State is kind of the opposite of Georgia Tech was last week. It will try to make its hay through the air as opposed to the on the ground. The 'Pack is 36th in passing offense and 95th in rushing offense. This week, the focus on Virginia's defense shifts from the defensive line and linebackers to the cornerbacks and safeties. It will be interesting to see how the Hoos handle Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon and that passing attack. Southern Miss QB Austin Davis and UNC QB Bryn Renner definitely had some good moments against the UVa defense so hopefully the secondary is on point.
Virginia is infamous for losing winnable games the week after upset wins. Most notable, in 2005, UVa beat No. 4 Florida State, then proceeded to lose 7-5 at UNC the next week in what was a lackluster performance. So, that is another reason to worry. I hope Mike London has this group motivated and hungry for more. I think this team knows it can't take anything for granted. Hardly any players know what going to a bowl feels like (there are a few who were redshirt freshmen in 2007 when the Cavs went to the Gator Bowl) and a win Saturday would put the Hoos one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Hopefully, this team doesn't need a lot of motivation from its coaches. But London seems like a coach I would want motivating me so that is an added bonus.
It still wouldn't surprise me though to see UVa come out flat at first and take a few drives to get going. I think eventually though, the run game will wear down the 'Pack and the defense will step up and do just enough to help secure a victory. I'm calling for another close, three-point win.
Virginia 31, N.C. State 28
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NFL picks
The slate is not very appetizing this week in the NFL. There aren't many games between great teams. Lions-Falcons, Jets-Chargers, and Texans-Titans are the best games.
1 p.m.
Falcons at Lions -- Lions 28-27
Texans at Titans -- Titans 24-21
Broncos at Dolphins -- Broncos 24-13 - Tim Tebow wins his first start this season
Chargers at Jets -- Jets 27-24
Bears vs. Buccaneers in London -- Buccaneers 20--17
Redskins at Panthers -- Redskins 24-22 - John Beck wins his first start since 2007
4:15 p.m.
Rams at Cowboys -- Cowboys 37-14
Packers at Vikings -- Packers 31-21
Monday night
Ravens at Jaguars -- Ravens 31-10
No. 4 Oklahoma State at Missouri, Noon FX
Missouri is a good 3-3 team that has had some tough opponents so far this season, with losses to Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State. Analysts have Oklahoma State on upset alert here, but I'm not buying it. I think the Cowboys will just score too many points for the Tigers to keep up with, but I do think Mizzou keeps it close going into the second half. As a side note, how about the Big 12, which actually has 10 teams now? Wow. There is some quality football being played in that conference. I might would put it beside the SEC as best conference this year. Only Kansas and Iowa State are having bad years, but Iowa State actually defeated Iowa this season.
Oklahoma State 42, Missouri 31
North Carolina at No. 7 Clemson, Noon ESPN
Clemson came back from being 18 down to beat Maryland 56-45 last week in an incredible game while UNC fell to Miami 30-24 in Chapel Hill. I'd give the Tar Heels a decent shot at bouncing back if this were at home, but I like for the Tigers' dream season to continue with a win in Death Valley.
Clemson 38, North Carolina 21
Boston College at No. 12 Virginia Tech, 3 p.m. ESPN3.com
Lots of years, the Eagles give the Hokies problems, especially in Massachusetts. Not this year, and especially not in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech should roll over what has looked like the worst team in the ACC so far this season.
Virginia Tech 42, Boston College 10
No. 20 Auburn at No. 1 LSU, 3:30 p.m. CBS
LSU will be missing two of its top players this week -- running back Spencer Ware (512 yards, six TDs) and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu (42 tackles, two interceptions with one returned for a TD, four forced fumbles and three recoveries, one of which he took back for a TD) -- for failing drug tests. Backup cornerback Tharold Simon is also suspended. I don't think it will matter for LSU in this game, as the Tigers should have enough to get by the other Tiger team from the SEC West. I think the margin of victory will be closer than if everyone was playing for LSU, but I'm still not expecting a nailbiter. Auburn has had trouble scoring in recent weeks so probably won't be able to take full advantage of the suspensions.
LSU 33, Auburn 17
No. 22 Georgia Tech at Miami, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
The Yellow Jackets are attempting to bounce back from an upset loss to Virginia while Miami picked up its first ACC win of the season on the road at UNC. Miami is 3-3 this season but its three losses are all by single digits. I think the Jackets bounce back and hand the Hurricanes another close loss. Miami head coach Al Golden has the 'Canes improving though, and I think they'll get to at least six wins this year and get to a bowl game.
Georgia Tech 31, Miami 28
Maryland at Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ABC
This is a difficult game to pick. Florida State is 3-3 and has underachieved yet again this season and has yet to beat a good team. At home several weeks ago, the Seminoles lost a tough 23-13 game to Oklahoma that started a three-game slide for FSU -- the 'Noles also lost to Clemson and Wake Forest by identical 35-30 scores. You could say the Terps have underachieved this season also as they sit at 2-4. But last week, C.J. Brown got the start for Maryland at quarterback, replacing Danny O'Brien (who was ACC Freshman of the Year in 2010) and helped the Terps put up 45 points on Clemson in a strong effort. I think Clemson was taken by surprise somewhat with Brown and FSU will be ready at home and will be able to slow down the speedy signal caller.
Florida State 38, Maryland 28
USC at Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m. NBC
I like the way Notre Dame has played since their 0-2 start to the season. USC has struggled at times this year and I think the Irish win this one in a close game at home.
Notre Dame 36, USC 32
No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 16 Michigan State, 8 p.m. ESPN
The Michigan State defense is really good and will easily give quarterback Russell Wilson and the Wisconsin offense the toughest challenge it has seen yet. The Badgers have yet to scores less than 35 points and Michigan State, besides one bad 31-13 loss at Notre Dame, has yet to give up more than 14 points, so something's gotta give. Wisconsin hasn't really been challenged yet this year except for early in its 48-17 whooping of Nebraska. Wisconsin lost at Michigan State last year but it did not have the dynamic Wilson at quarterback (I'm not sure why Wisconsin has to play at MSU again; I suppose it has to do with the new-look Big Ten with the divisions and it somehow messed with scheduling). The Badgers lead the nation in scoring. I think this game will be tight and the Spartans will give the Badgers all they can handle but it won't be enough in the end.
Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 28
No. 25 Washington at No. 8 Stanford, 8 p.m. ABC
Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian has done a good job with the Huskies this season and they have clearly progressed. In their first game of the year, Washington eeked out a win over FCS defending champion Eastern Washington. Their last two games, the Huskies have cruised by Colorado and Utah. They put up a respectable fight in their third game of the season in a 51-38 loss to Nebraska. I think the Huskies will get a wake up call against the Cardinal. Stanford has been going about its business without much fanfare this season, besides everyone saying Andrew Luck is the nation's best quarterback. As a whole, though, I think Stanford this year is being overlooked. It is fifth in the nation in both points and points against and the Cardinal hasn't scored lower than 37 points so far this season. Washington is playing well but is going to run into a buzzsaw in this one.
Stanford 45, Washington 27
N.C. State at Virginia , 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
I think for Virginia to beat N.C. State, it needs to follow the same formula as it did last week in its win over Georgia Tech -- pound the ball with the running backs and play solid defense. I don't think the Cavs will have trouble with the first part of that plan -- the Wolfpack is 88th in total defense and 77th in run defense. I think offensive coordinator Bill Lazor knows by now that Virginia's bread-and-butter is our three-headed monster at running back -- Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson. We should run them and run them until they can't run anymore or the Wolfpack proves it can stop the run. Neither Michael Rocco nor David Watford has proven they can go out and win a game at quarterback and Virginia lost one of its most reliable receivers this week, Matt Snyder, to a broken foot so the passing game should be managed and not used too much Saturday. Just give each quarterback (if we still plan on using both) some easy throws to loosen up the defense (because N.C. State is likely going to stack the box to stop the run) and take an occasional shot downfield.
The defensive side of the ball is where I'm most worried. I'm sure I sound like a broken record because that's what I say every week. But I just still can't trust this defense yet, even though it gave up just six points in regulation Oct. 1 to Idaho (touchdown came on a blocked punt for a TD) and 14 to Georgia Tech last week (one TD was on an interception return). I hope they prove me wrong. N.C. State is kind of the opposite of Georgia Tech was last week. It will try to make its hay through the air as opposed to the on the ground. The 'Pack is 36th in passing offense and 95th in rushing offense. This week, the focus on Virginia's defense shifts from the defensive line and linebackers to the cornerbacks and safeties. It will be interesting to see how the Hoos handle Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon and that passing attack. Southern Miss QB Austin Davis and UNC QB Bryn Renner definitely had some good moments against the UVa defense so hopefully the secondary is on point.
Virginia is infamous for losing winnable games the week after upset wins. Most notable, in 2005, UVa beat No. 4 Florida State, then proceeded to lose 7-5 at UNC the next week in what was a lackluster performance. So, that is another reason to worry. I hope Mike London has this group motivated and hungry for more. I think this team knows it can't take anything for granted. Hardly any players know what going to a bowl feels like (there are a few who were redshirt freshmen in 2007 when the Cavs went to the Gator Bowl) and a win Saturday would put the Hoos one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Hopefully, this team doesn't need a lot of motivation from its coaches. But London seems like a coach I would want motivating me so that is an added bonus.
It still wouldn't surprise me though to see UVa come out flat at first and take a few drives to get going. I think eventually though, the run game will wear down the 'Pack and the defense will step up and do just enough to help secure a victory. I'm calling for another close, three-point win.
Virginia 31, N.C. State 28
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NFL picks
The slate is not very appetizing this week in the NFL. There aren't many games between great teams. Lions-Falcons, Jets-Chargers, and Texans-Titans are the best games.
1 p.m.
Falcons at Lions -- Lions 28-27
Texans at Titans -- Titans 24-21
Broncos at Dolphins -- Broncos 24-13 - Tim Tebow wins his first start this season
Chargers at Jets -- Jets 27-24
Bears vs. Buccaneers in London -- Buccaneers 20--17
Redskins at Panthers -- Redskins 24-22 - John Beck wins his first start since 2007
4:15 p.m.
Rams at Cowboys -- Cowboys 37-14
Packers at Vikings -- Packers 31-21
Monday night
Ravens at Jaguars -- Ravens 31-10
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