Getting the prediction train rolling early this weekend because the Cavaliers travel to face the Hurricanes tonight in Miami for their first Thursday night game since 2006, when they played in two Thursday night games. They lost at Georgia Tech and won at home against UNC. In their last trip to Maimi, Virginia was blown out 52-17 in 2009. In 2007, Virginia went on the road and absolutely crushed Miami in its final home game ever 48-0 at the Orange Bowl in one of the more surprising results in Virginia football history. Even though that team was 8-2 at the time, I don't think anybody forsaw UVa so thoroughly crushing the 'Canes on such an historic night.
BACKGROUND
A lot has changed since then. In 2007, Virginia had a resurgent year under Al Groh. Things were looking promising again, like they were from 2002-2005 under Groh. Things were mostly on the downswing for Miami, with then-coach Randy Shannon, who was hired that year but never really got things going and was fired after last season. Of course, what looked like a promising year for UVa in '07 ended up dissolving over the next few years. In 2008, Virginia won four games in a row after a disappointing start and was 5-3, but the team dropped its final four games to finish 5-7 and missed a bowl. In 2009, Virginia went 3-9, winning just two games in the conference and Groh was fired. Last year, Virginia went 4-8 and won just one ACC game under first-year head coach Mike London -- against Miami at home in an upset victory. The Wahoos held a 24-0 halftime advantage and survived a furious comeback by the Hurricanes in the fourth quarter that saw them score 19 points. UVa held on for a 24-19 win, London's first marquee win as Cavs head coach.
Funny enough, the first team to beat UVa after its four-game win streak in 2008 was Miami. Virginia held a 17-3 halftime lead in that game only to lose 24-17 in overtime. The Cavs have never really picked up the pieces from that loss and we are now in 2011. Since that loss, Virginia has won just five games overall and two in the ACC.
Another interesting note is that first-year Miami coach Al Golden has ties to UVa. He was an assistant in the early Groh years and was also rumored to be in contention for the head coach position at UVa after Groh was fired. Golden was the head coach at Temple following his assistant years with Groh in the early 2000s and took Temple from a Division I laughingstock into a nine-to-10 win team. I really like Golden; I just hope in a couple years I don't wish Virginia would have hired him instead of London.
So, these two teams have quite a history. Miami was supposed to dominate the ACC when it entered in 2004 but it hasn't and the Cavs are 3-3 against the 'Canes in that time frame.
Here is a quick look at some recent games between these two teams:
- 2006: Virginia's first win against Miami, 17-7
- 2007: Virginia shocks Miami, 48-0, in the final game in the Orange Bowl
- 2008: Miami comes back to beat UVa 24-17 in overtime. Virginia has really never recovered as a program since that loss.
- 2010: Virginia beats Miami 24-19 for the first ACC win and first upset win in the Mike London era
PREDICTION
Now, UVa takes on Miami in the two teams' first Thursday night contest between the two teams. Miami is an improving team. The 'Canes lost to Maryland to open the season but they are 4-2 since then. They almost beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg but fell, 38-35. The last two weeks they have beaten UNC 30-24 and Georgia Tech 24-7.
The Cavaliers have their work cut out for them tonight. Michael Rocco will be the main man under center for the Wahoos as the coaching staff has decided to stick with him for most of the game and decrease the number of snaps for true freshman David Watford. I think Rocco plays a decent game and throws a touchdown, but also gets picked off once. I think UVa bounces back nicely from a bad game vs. N.C. State but it won't be enough. I really like the way Miami has improved and it has all its players back from suspension now.
Miami 31, Virginia 21
BACKGROUND
A lot has changed since then. In 2007, Virginia had a resurgent year under Al Groh. Things were looking promising again, like they were from 2002-2005 under Groh. Things were mostly on the downswing for Miami, with then-coach Randy Shannon, who was hired that year but never really got things going and was fired after last season. Of course, what looked like a promising year for UVa in '07 ended up dissolving over the next few years. In 2008, Virginia won four games in a row after a disappointing start and was 5-3, but the team dropped its final four games to finish 5-7 and missed a bowl. In 2009, Virginia went 3-9, winning just two games in the conference and Groh was fired. Last year, Virginia went 4-8 and won just one ACC game under first-year head coach Mike London -- against Miami at home in an upset victory. The Wahoos held a 24-0 halftime advantage and survived a furious comeback by the Hurricanes in the fourth quarter that saw them score 19 points. UVa held on for a 24-19 win, London's first marquee win as Cavs head coach.
Funny enough, the first team to beat UVa after its four-game win streak in 2008 was Miami. Virginia held a 17-3 halftime lead in that game only to lose 24-17 in overtime. The Cavs have never really picked up the pieces from that loss and we are now in 2011. Since that loss, Virginia has won just five games overall and two in the ACC.
Another interesting note is that first-year Miami coach Al Golden has ties to UVa. He was an assistant in the early Groh years and was also rumored to be in contention for the head coach position at UVa after Groh was fired. Golden was the head coach at Temple following his assistant years with Groh in the early 2000s and took Temple from a Division I laughingstock into a nine-to-10 win team. I really like Golden; I just hope in a couple years I don't wish Virginia would have hired him instead of London.
So, these two teams have quite a history. Miami was supposed to dominate the ACC when it entered in 2004 but it hasn't and the Cavs are 3-3 against the 'Canes in that time frame.
Here is a quick look at some recent games between these two teams:
- 2006: Virginia's first win against Miami, 17-7
- 2007: Virginia shocks Miami, 48-0, in the final game in the Orange Bowl
- 2008: Miami comes back to beat UVa 24-17 in overtime. Virginia has really never recovered as a program since that loss.
- 2010: Virginia beats Miami 24-19 for the first ACC win and first upset win in the Mike London era
PREDICTION
Now, UVa takes on Miami in the two teams' first Thursday night contest between the two teams. Miami is an improving team. The 'Canes lost to Maryland to open the season but they are 4-2 since then. They almost beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg but fell, 38-35. The last two weeks they have beaten UNC 30-24 and Georgia Tech 24-7.
The Cavaliers have their work cut out for them tonight. Michael Rocco will be the main man under center for the Wahoos as the coaching staff has decided to stick with him for most of the game and decrease the number of snaps for true freshman David Watford. I think Rocco plays a decent game and throws a touchdown, but also gets picked off once. I think UVa bounces back nicely from a bad game vs. N.C. State but it won't be enough. I really like the way Miami has improved and it has all its players back from suspension now.
Miami 31, Virginia 21
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