No. 5 Virginia Tech at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2

Well, the day has just about arrived. This game was looking big for a few weeks now as Virginia kept steadily winning and improving, and the game just got some extra meaning after last weekend's events. UVa beat Florida State, which means this game is for the Coastal Division title and the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship. The winner of that game will play in a BCS bowl. Also though, Tech now has a legitimate shot at not only a BCS berth, but a BCS title game berth if things happen to fall right. Even with a win today though and a victory over Clemson next week, I think the Hokies would be on the outside looking in. But the chance is there.
There are several other storylines for this game. It is not only for the Coastal and the possibility of staying alive in the BCS title hunt:

Virginia Tech has beaten Virginia seven straight times.
I don't know about other Hoos, but I can rattle off those painful scores easily. We last won in 2003 and the score was 35-21. Since then, we have lost by scores of 24-10, 52-14, 17-0, 33-21, 17-14, 42-13, and 37-7. Can Virginia take back the Commonwealth? Coach Mike London is already starting to make some gains on the recruiting trail. A win would keep that momentum going and possibly speed up the rebuilding process. With Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer getting older, I think he would feel a swing of momentum in the state  if the Hoos won. Beamer is likely 5 or so years from ending his career while London is 50 and just getting something started in Charlottesville. If you look at the Clemson game, too, I think if UVa could win vs. Tech, it could beat Clemson, too. The Tigers are known for falling off at the end of seasons and last week, they lost 37-13 to N.C. State. If the Cavs won that, they would likely play in the Orange Bowl and if they played a Big East team, they would probably have a great shot at winning since the Big East is weak. That would be an amazing year for London. From 4-8 and a 30-point loss to Tech in 2010, to beating Tech and winning the Orange Bowl in 2011. A Hokie win, on the other hand, would mean they could keep their bragging rights for another year and the message that would resonate throughout the state would be that the Hokies still own the state of Virginia. But if Virginia plays them tough in a loss, I still think Tech would know UVa is nipping at its heels.


Lynchburg's own face off as starting QBs for the state's two flagship universities.
UVa starting QB Michael Rocco is from Lynchburg and went to Liberty Christian Academy. Virginia Tech starting QB Logan Thomas, also from Lynchburg, went to Brookville High School, which is about a two-minute drive from where I live now. How cool is it that one city, in the state of Virginia, is the hometown of the two starting QBs of the arch rivals facing off for the Coastal Division title? I'd say very cool and quite rare for one city to have two starting QBs in the same state at FBS schools. It is extra cool because I live in Lynchburg now.

Other thoughts on the game (more of an Xs and Os analysis):


This is the best chance UVa has had to top Tech since 2007. The 2008 game was a three-point game, but UVa kind of caught Tech by surprise by using Vic Hall as a running quarterback. So I don't know if I would really count that game. The 2007 team was led  by Chris Long on defense but he was feeling sick for that game and wasn't as disruptive as usual. The offense that year also wasn't as good as this year's offense. Virginia does not want to get down by more than one score, obviously, but if it does, it has the offensive prowess to come back. Rocco has proven he is a reliable quarterback and I think he can lead clutch touchdown drives.


If Virginia can control the line of scrimmage, the Cavaliers' chances for success increase. I know it sounds obvious, but it so true for a team that relies on the running game. The Cavs have proven quite dominant all year on the offensive line. The Hokies defense has had its injury problems. If Virginia can get its running game going, scoring will be that much easier. Rocco is a good QB, but I don't think he is ready to win a game like this all by himself. He needs a complementary running game and the ability to use play action pass effectively.


How will the Virginia defense fare against the Tech offense? The UVa defense hasn't allowed more than 21 points since the Sept. 24 Southern Miss game. It has grown and developed a lot. The Tech offense has had its struggles, but has been better as of late and has a lot of weapons. RB David Wilson is one of the best in the country. Logan Thomas can get it done through the air and with his feet. I have seen many defenses this season fail to account for his draw plays up the middle. How have defenses not honed in on this play by now? UVa has a lot of film on him and holding down Thomas' rushing yards will be key. How will we handle the deep ball? UVa has a terrific cornerback in Chase Minnifield. Virginia Tech wide receiver Danny Coale is small but gets the job done. The last time UVa had a great CB in this game was in 2009 when the Cavs had Ras-I Dowling. Well, he got burned by Coale more than once in that game. Hopefully Minnifield can fare better.


Which team will come up with a game-changing turnover? Though Rocco hasn't done so recently, he has thrown nine interceptions this season. Wilson, the Hokies RB, has fumbled the ball seven times this year and has lost four of those. The turnover battle is always a major part of every game, and it gets magnified in big games and when the margin of error is slim. Hopefully, Virginia can protect the ball like it did in the second part of the season and can force some Hokie turnovers.


Will Virginia's mistakes cost them? The Cavaliers have been shaky all year on punt returns and they've mostly gotten away with it. We can't afford to be loose with the ball against the Hokies -- they will likely make us pay. Virginia's defense, though it has improved, has still given up its share of big plays this season. Just last week, FSU had a long catch and run down to the goal line. Minnifield chased down the receiver and tackled him at the 1-yard line. The defense held strong and FSU scored just a field goal. If we give up any big plays like that, I think Tech will do a better job of capitalizing and turning them into touchdowns. UVa will need to limit those big gains. What has been 20-30 yard gains in other games this year could be stretched into touchdowns by the Hokies.


Which Tech team will we see? The Hokies have not dominated many teams this year. They beat ECU by seven, UNC by three, Miami by three, Duke by four, and lost to Clemson in Blacksburg by 20. Early in the year, they beat Arkansas State, of the Sun Belt Conference, just 26-7 at home. However, they also beat Georgia Tech by 11 in Atlanta, and took care of a solid Wake Forest team on the road 38-17. If Virginia gets Tech's top game, it will be tough to win and UVa will have to play its best game of the season. If the Hokies come out and don't play a good game, UVa won't need to play its best game to get the victory. In that scenario, UVa could even win by a couple scores.


Who wants it more? UVa, like any team that is usually the underdog, has played the "no one believes in us" card all year. It has gotten beaten and trampled on in this series for a long time. As I mentioned, UVa last beat Tech in 2003, and hasn't won back-to-back games in this series since 1997-98. London is a master motivator and I have to believe he will have the team mentally ready to play its best game of the year. The Hokies, who would maybe not have as much motivation since they have won this series so many times in a row, have the added motivation of wrapping up the Coastal Division (something they cold have done last week if UVa had lost to FSU), winning the ACC, and impressing pollsters in the hopes of making the BCS title game. Even without those factors, Tech always seems to come out wanting to beat its in-state rivals.

I'm not going to make a pick for this one. Virginia is capable of winning, but this is the toughest team it has played all season. The Hokies have their eyes on a bigger prize and maybe it will motivate them more, or maybe it will serve as a distraction. Are the Hokies nervous? Are they feeling the pressure? I think they need to be really ready for this game and not thinking that UVa will just roll over at the first sign of trouble. I think this one is going four quarters. Should be a great game.

WAHOOWA

Comments

  1. And yet UVA rolled over at the first sign of trouble. UVA, you confound me sometimes...

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  2. And yes, the new comment setting is much easier.

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