Quick Profiles
Virginia
Record: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)
Last season: 4-8
Coach: Mike London (2nd year, 12-12)
Good wins: home vs. Ga. Tech, at Miami, at FSU
Bad losses: None (all losses were to teams in bowl games)
Schedule: ACC not very strong again, out-of-conference schedule was weak with the exception of Southern Miss.Auburn
Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC)
Last season: 14-0 (national champs)
Coach: Gene Chizik (3rd year, 29-10)
Good wins: at South Carolina
Bad losses: None (all losses were to teams with at least 10 wins)
Schedule: Very strong SEC West schedule and also had to play Georgia and South Carolina from the East Division, out-of-conference schedule was weak with the exception of Clemson.
Virginia offense vs. Auburn defense.
Virginia's bread and butter has been the running game all year. Quarterback Michael Rocco has improved, but if the Cavaliers are going to win, a lot of the damage will have to be done on the ground with Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson. We saw what happened when Virginia Tech was able to shut down the running game. UVa lost, 38-0. Virginia should have a better chance of running the ball against Auburn. The Tigers run defense ranks 98th in the nation whereas the Hokies rush defense is 17th in the nation. Against the pass, Auburn ranks 44th, whereas Virginia Tech is 39th. Auburn doesn't seem to have a ball-hawking defense. The Tigers only have 13 interceptions on the season and the most any one player has is three (Neiko Thorpe). Of course, Auburn's numbers are actually inflated, or perhaps we should say deflated, because of the tough competition it has seen this year. Stopping SEC West offenses is not the same thing as stopping ACC offenses and the weak non-conference schedule the Hokies faced. Still, I think Virginia has a good chance to execute its game plan against the Tigers. I'd also expect a trick play or two from the Cavaliers. This game plan has been coming together for about a month and I would have to imagine some wrenches will be thrown in there to try to take Auburn by surprise. It could be something that the Cavaliers will have to do to come out the victors.
Auburn offense vs. Virginia defense.
Auburn's offense, led by offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, has left some things to be desired this season. Malzahn is going to be the head coach at Arkansas State next season. Speculation has been that he decided to go for his first collegiate head-coaching gig while he is still a somewhat hot commodity. Malzahn was an innovative high school coach in Arkansas and then the University of Arkansas before going to be the offensive coordinator at Tulsa and then Auburn. Last year, with Cam Newton under center, the Tigers offense was phenomenal but some of the allure of Malzahn is gone this season. The Tigers failed to put up points against the big boys of the SEC. Auburn ranks 106th in passing, 38th in rushing, and 104th overall. Granted, two games were against possibly the best two defenses in the land in Alabama and LSU and two more games were also against terrific SEC defenses in Georgia and South Carolina. Auburn lost its best offensive weapon, running back Michael Dyer, to suspension a couple weeks ago. Dyer ran for 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns this season and is known for his great play in the national title game last January where he looked to be down on the ground, but instead landed on an Oregon defender and spun around and ran further down the field to help set up Auburn's game-winning field goal. Auburn will look to replace Dyer with Onterio McCalebb and Tre Mason, both of whom have had limited carries this season but show promise. McCalebb has 532 yards on 102 attempts (5.2 yards per carry) while Mason has 97 yards on 19 carries (5.1 yards per carry). Auburn also has a running quarterback, highly touted freshman Kiehl Frazier, who can also help carry the load. He has 272 yards on 60 carries. The quarterback position has been in flux for the Tigers this season. Barrett Trotter started the first seven contests but Clint Moseley has started the last five. Moseley has completed 65 of 104 passes (62.5 percent) for 794 yards, five TDs, and three INTs. Auburn has six receivers who have double-digit catches with both Emory Blake and McCalebb hauling in 30 passes each. Tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen leads the team with seven TD catches.
I think Virginia has a real good shot to slow down this offense. It is not overly impressive. Still, it is from the SEC, and the speed is there, and it will be hard to tell, at least for fans like me, what we are up against until the game starts. The loss of Dyer is huge I think. Certainly, Auburn has terrific recruits that can step in, but Dyer was the second best SEC running back behind Alabama's Trent Richardson, a Heisman finalist. It is no doubt a huge blow for the Tigers. I would not be surprised to see some trick plays from the Tigers. Malzahn might deem them necessary and he might be wanting to go out with a bang at Auburn.
Special teams.
Virginia will need to be careful on kickoff coverage. Both McCalebb and Mason have taken one kickoff back for six points this season and have average returns of over 26 yards (McCalebb's is 32). Auburn's kicker, Cody Parkey, appears to be pretty reliable. He is 11 of 15 on the year with a long of 43. He didn't try any field goals over 50 yards so he must not have a huge leg. The Tigers punter, Steven Clark, seems to be quite solid as well. He averages about 40 yards per kick and has put 32 of his 69 punts inside the 20-yard line. Auburn doesn't look to be particularly dangerous in the punt return game.
Prediction.
I'd expect Auburn to win by a touchdown or two if it had Dyer. I just think he would be too good and Auburn would eventually wear us down with a great running game with Dyer up the middle and McCalebb and Mason running sweeps around the outside -- their specialty. Virginia has a very good chance to win this game though, I think. Dyer is out and Malzahn has probably been distracted by getting hired by Arkansas State. I saw a story from the Auburn paper, or maybe on the Auburn website, talking about how he has sort of split his time between some duties there and with Auburn. How much of his self is he going to put into this game? Auburn has played an extremely tough schedule, but it is not like the Tigers played those teams tough. Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU all blew out Auburn. The average margin of victory was 31.3. Auburn's other loss came against Clemson and those Tigers from the ACC blew out Auburn in the second half.
With all this said, I just don't know if UVa is ready to win a game like this. It is a huge opportunity though. If Virginia could win this game against an SEC team -- the defending national champion no less -- on national television on New Year's Eve and it was paired with yet another BCS loss for Virginia Tech (the Hokies play Michigan on Tuesday in the Sugar Bowl), Virginia could have some real momentum heading into next season on the field, on the recruiting trail, and with the UVa fanbase and the general college football fanbase, especially in the state of Virginia.
I think Auburn will win this game though. The Tigers will most likely have superior speed. The SEC schools have an incredible amount of speed. They have seen superior competition. They won't be afraid of the Hoos. They've played in very big games the past two seasons so the stage will not scare them. Virginia could take some time to get used to the limelight though. Auburn should have no problem there. The Tigers should hit the ground rolling. SEC teams play under a huge spotlight every week.
I hope I am wrong, obviously. I just think Auburn has a slight edge, even with some factors going against them. I do think though that it will be a good game and Virginia won't lay an egg. I think the Cavaliers got that out of their system against Virginia Tech. Virginia should be ready to go after a month of preparation and at least give an effort the fans will be proud of.
Auburn 27, Virginia 24
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