After solid win, Virginia travels to face North Carolina

Virginia at North Carolina, 1 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers put on one of their best performances of the season Wednesday at home against Wake Forest in beating the Demon Deacons 68-44. Five Hoos scored in double figures, led by Mike Scott's 19 on an incredible 9 for 9 from the field. Joe Harris connected on 3 of 4 3-pointers and put up 11 points, Jontel Evans pitched in 10, as did Akil Mitchell, and Malcolm Brogdon also recorded 10 points and hit 2 of 3 3-pointers. Also, Virginia held Wake to just 19 first-half points and probably could have held them under 40 for the game if they needed to.
Virginia's prize for playing so well? Playing at North Carolina today with the Tar Heels coming off a stinging loss to archrival Duke on Wednesday. UNC (20-4, 7-2 ACC) held a 10-point advantage with two minutes left but Duke clawed its way back and Austin Rivers hit a game-winning 3-pointer as time expired sending the Blue Devils into a frenzied celebration on UNC's home floor.
I think one of two things will happen with the Heels today. More than likely, they will be focused, play a great game, and take out their anger on the Hoos (19-4, 6-3 ACC). After UNC lost to Florida State by 33 Jan. 14, it won five games in a row and the first four were by double digits. I think North Carolina will probably play with that kind of focus. There is a chance that the Heels could still be reeling from the loss and a little off-balance or distracted. Or, they could be wanting to beat UVa badly, but not focused. They could be rushing things and play anxiously, which would also work in UVa's favor. Everyone following Virginia this season knows the opponent must be patient against UVa coach Tony Bennett's pack-line defense. So I think there's a possibility the Tar Heels push too hard. The more likely scenario will be what I said originally though, that UNC will play with fire and passion and beat UVa by at least 10. The best thing that could've happened to Virginia would have been for UNC to blow the lead against Duke but barely win. The Heels would be feeling a false sense of security and the Cavs would have a good chance then to pull off the upset.
Whatever attitude UNC brings to the court today, it possesses the weapons to put up a ton of points. The Heels lead the nation in scoring at 84.1 points per game. Harrison Barnes (17.7 points per game), Tyler Zeller (15.6ppg), and John Henson (14.2ppg) make up the trio that lead UNC's high-powered offense. Reggie Bullock (8.4ppg) has stepped in and has started the past five games since Dexter Strickland went out with a season-ending ACL tear against Virginia Tech. Kendall Marshall mans the point for UNC and leads the ACC in assists with 9.75 per game. Henson leads the ACC in both rebounds per game (10.3) and blocks per game (3.1).
A couple areas where UNC does not excel are team defense and free throws. The Tar Heels give up 67.7 points per game, ninth in the ACC, and only shoot 65.4 percent from the line, which is the worst mark in the conference. I would have to imagine on their home floor the Tar Heels will shoot more free throws, but maybe Virginia can shoot the better percentage. And UVa should be capable of putting up some point in this game. It will probably have to score 65, maybe even 70 or a little more to capture the victory. UVa will have to exploit these two area's of UNC's game to have a chance.
The chance for the upset is there, however slim. I think fans should be happy with just keeping it close. This might be the toughest game of the year. Normally, that distinction would go to playing Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but playing at UNC right after it lost at home against Duke are pretty tough circumstances.

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