Running behind this week, so I'll embed my analysis of Virginia and Dallas this week in the picks for their games this week (not much to analyze, anyway). I got back on track last week with college picks and went 8-3, so I am now 25-15 on the year in those, but I went 4-5 in NFL picks again and am now 8-10 on the year in those. Who can pick the topsy-turvy NFL these days anyway? Maybe things will settle down and become a little more predictable starting this week with the regular referees coming back. I'll get my NFL picks out before Sunday's game but here are my college picks.
COLLEGE
No. 25 Baylor at No. 8 West Virginia, Noon FX
West Virginia struggled a bit with Maryland last week but I can't see the Mountaineers losing this game at home. The RGIII-less Baylor Bears just entered the top 25 after a narrow, 47-42 win last week over Louisiana-Monroe. They are 3-0 like WVU, but I think they will give up too many points to keep up. Baylor's given up an average of 29.7 points per game to SMU, Sam Houston State, and Monroe
West Virginia 45, Baylor 31
Minnesota at Iowa, Noon ESPN2
For my friend Ryan Pronk, a Minnesota fan. But hey, the Gophers are 4-0, believe it or not. Their schedule has been incredibly easy thus far, however: at UNLV (3OT win), and then home against New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Syracuse. Iowa has been underwhelming to say the least. The Hawkeyes have lost to Iowa State and Central Michigan, both of those losses at home. Minnesota has actually beaten Iowa the last two years by a combined four points. I think Minnesota will get a wake up call soon, but I like them in this game to take a third straight "Floyd of Rosedale" trophy from Iowa.
Minnesota 23, Iowa 21
N.C. State at Miami, Noon ESPNU
Both teams enter at 3-1 but the Wolfpack have not played a tough team since opening with a 35-21 loss against Tennessee. Miami, on the other hand, is coming off a back-and-forth victory over Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Two games ago, the Hurricanes got lit up by Kansas State 52-13 but it was on the road and the Wildcats have proven to be a very good team, winning at Oklahoma last week. I have no reason to think that the Hurricanes can't use the momentum they gained from last week and beat the Wolfpack, a team that has proven nothing. But you never know in the ACC.
Miami 31, N.C. State 28
No. 14 Ohio State at No. 20 Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Big Ten has been probably the most disappointing BCS conference so far this season. There hasn't really been a dominant team in the league and even undefeated teams are struggling against weaker teams. The Buckeyes, in their first year under Urban Meyer, are 4-0 but only beat winless UAB 29-15 at home last week and also struggled against a weak-looking Cal team two weeks ago, also at home. They have yet to play on the road. The Spartans are 3-1, with a narrow 17-13 win over Boise State at home to open the season. MSU has struggled on offense, scoring only 21 points per game, 104th in the country. Two weeks ago, Sparty scored only three points in a home loss to Notre Dame and last week, Eastern Michigan led MSU 7-3 at the half. I'm going to take Sparty but I could see this one going either way. OSU will have some trouble in its first road game of the season.
Michigan State 20, Ohio State 17
No. 17 Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Eagles are 1-2, coming off a bye week and a 22-13 loss to Northwestern in Chicago. Clemson was outscored 35-9 last week by Florida State after taking a 28-14 lead. Though BC has two weeks to prepare, can't see the Tigers having a letdown and losing this one, unless they "pull a Clemson."
Clemson 33, Boston College 17
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.
The Bearcats have only played two games this year, blowing out Pittsburgh 34-10 on Sept. 6 and beating Delaware State 23-7 last week. The Hokies should have a decent home field advantage in D.C. although I expect there to be a good number of Cincy fans as well. Don't think this will sell out or be anything like the Boise State-Virginia Tech game there a few years ago. The Hokies bounced back from an ugly loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago with a 37-0 shutout of Bowling Green last week. Cincy has been untested, even though it beat the same Pittsburgh team that beat the Hokies. That Pitt Panther team was a different one that had some players missing and was just starting out under a new coach so I don't think the way Cincy and Tech both performed against Pittsburgh is a good way to guess what will happen in this game. The Hokies got their wake up call against Pitt and will be focused from here out I think, and it will take a superior team to beat them, like Clemson or FSU. I'll take the Hokies in this one, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy take an early lead.
Virginia Tech 24, Cincinnati 17
No. 4 Florida State at South Florida, 6 p.m. ESPN
Now we will really see what the Seminoles are made of. It was easy for them to get hyped up at home in a big game against an ACC divisional rival last week in Clemson. Now they have to travel to South Florida to take on a Bull team that probably won't be playing in front of many fans. Will the lack of energy in the stadium contribute to a less energized FSU squad? The 'Noles will also probably be thinking that USF will lie down. The Bulls are 2-2, with losses the last two weeks against Ball State and Rutgers. They also only beat Nevada by one. Dangerous game if the Seminoles are riding their high horse after last week. I think they will struggle but will come out on top because the superior athletes of FSU will overcome the team's sloppiness.
Florida State 26, South Florida 13
No. 12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:50 p.m. FOX
Texas is 3-0, trying to show it's back after a dismal 5-7 record two seasons ago and a still un-Texas like mark of 8-5 in 2011. The Longhorns have scored 37, 45, and 66 points in its three wins thus far, the best one being the most recent one, a 66-31 thrashing of Ole Miss. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hasn't really been able to stop anyone yet. The Cowboys beat up on lowly FCS squad Savannah State by an incredible 84-0 score in Week 1 but then lost 59-38 to Arizona on Sept. 8.
Texas 50, Oklahoma State 35
Wisconsin at No. 22 Nebraska, 8 p.m. ABC
The Badgers have underperformed this season. They were once known as one of the best running teams in the country but Paul Chryst, who was the offensive coordinator there, is now the coach at Pittsburgh. The Badgers are just 87th in rushing yards per game this season. They did have a pick me up in offense last week with the first start of freshman quarterback Joel Stave. Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien disappointed in his time under center. Wisconsin is 3-1, but none of its three victories -- over Northern Iowa, UTEP, and Utah State -- were easy. And it lost to Oregon State 10-7 on the road. Nebraska is 3-1 like Wisconsin and has been better, but has still had its issues like lots of Big Ten teams this season. The Cornhuskers have beaten the likes of Southern Miss (winless this year), Arkansas State, and Idaho State -- not exactly a terrifying run of games. They lost to up and coming UCLA 36-30 in Los Angeles. I'm going to take the Huskers mainly because they are at home and have shown to be a little better than Wisconsin so far. Their offense has been very solid, and will carry them in this game. Their bad defense should get some help from a struggling Badger O.
Nebraska 34, Wisconsin 28
Louisiana Tech at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. ESPN3.com
Didn't really think a mid-year non-conference game against a WAC opponent could be a big game, even a turning point in the season, but this very well could be. Virginia is 2-2, with some winnable ACC games coming up, but has looked quite awful, especially on offense, the past two weeks with 56-20 and 27-7 losses to Georgia Tech and TCU, respectively. The offense had some things working well last week against the Horned Frogs but could not punch it into the end zone, victimized by turnovers and penalties. Michael Rocco threw two interceptions, one of which hit Khalek Sheperd right in the hands and tipped into the air where a TCU defender grabbed it. Kevin Parks fumbled the ball and Phillip Sims fumbled late in the game as well. The offense did record 353 total yards, 164 of which were on the ground, the second-best effort of the season rushing, so that was encouraging. Perry Jones still didn't have a good game, but Kevin Parks racked up 84 yards. The defense held tough despite the repeated failings of the offense and it was only 20-7 late in the fourth quarter against a top 25-ranked team.
Today's game is against a strong offensive team in Louisiana Tech, which comes into the contest 3-0. The Bulldogs rank third in points per game, putting up a startling 54.7 points per game. Their wins have come against weak competition, however -- Houston, Rice, and Illinois (which turned the ball over six times). And as good as the offense has been at lighting up the scoreboard, the defense has been pretty bad, allowing 36.7 points per game, 114th in the country, and the 118th worst defense in terms of giving up yards, almost 500 per game. This should be a game where the offense is licking its chops. It has had a hard time finding success the past three weeks but should find the most since the Richmond game against the Bulldogs. This game could come down to some things that UVa hasn't done well recently: turnovers and the running game. Mike London said earlier in the week that Rocco will start under center, but you can tell that he will take Rocco out if things aren't going well so there is lots of pressure on Rocco this week to perform well and lead the team to a win. Rocco is at his best with a strong running game, as is any quarterback really. What I'm saying is that Rocco is a solid QB, but won't lead the team to many wins on his arm alone (an exception would be the FSU game last year -- the offense wasn't awesome, but Rocco led the Cavs on a game-winning drive at the end, and the defense was superb). Rocco needs that running game to soften up the defense and to get the play-action pass working. When defenses zero in on Rocco, he does not look very good. Today would be a great game for Jones to have his breakout performance. "Superman" has been anything but this season, and he hasn't been helped by the offensive line. On the turnover side, Virginia is minus seven so far in that category, tied for 114th worst in the country. The Bulldogs forced six from Illinois last week, as I mentioned earlier. Virginia can move the ball up and down the field all day, but if the 'Hoos turn the ball over a lot, it could be a long day. I think the defense can slow down this Bulldog offense, but giving it extra possessions won't help matters at all.
This game looks a lot like the Southern Miss game last year, a contest UVa lost 30-24 to fall to 2-2. Louisiana Tech is a strong offensive team coming in from a weaker conference, much like Southern Miss was last season out of Conference USA. I think the Golden Eagles were more well-rounded and probably a better overall team than the Bulldogs are this season. This is a gut check game for UVa. If it loses, I don't think it is time to pack up for the season. The team found itself in a tough state of affairs last season and turned it into eight wins eventually. But a loss in this game and the team will have to fight hard just to get to six wins. A win would mean the Cavs could still have some high aspirations. It's time to see if the Cavs are ready to show how much they've improved the past two weeks and show the Georgia Tech and TCU results aren't an accurate reflection on this team.
Louisiana Tech 34, Virginia 30
Both teams enter at 3-1 but the Wolfpack have not played a tough team since opening with a 35-21 loss against Tennessee. Miami, on the other hand, is coming off a back-and-forth victory over Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Two games ago, the Hurricanes got lit up by Kansas State 52-13 but it was on the road and the Wildcats have proven to be a very good team, winning at Oklahoma last week. I have no reason to think that the Hurricanes can't use the momentum they gained from last week and beat the Wolfpack, a team that has proven nothing. But you never know in the ACC.
Miami 31, N.C. State 28
No. 14 Ohio State at No. 20 Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Big Ten has been probably the most disappointing BCS conference so far this season. There hasn't really been a dominant team in the league and even undefeated teams are struggling against weaker teams. The Buckeyes, in their first year under Urban Meyer, are 4-0 but only beat winless UAB 29-15 at home last week and also struggled against a weak-looking Cal team two weeks ago, also at home. They have yet to play on the road. The Spartans are 3-1, with a narrow 17-13 win over Boise State at home to open the season. MSU has struggled on offense, scoring only 21 points per game, 104th in the country. Two weeks ago, Sparty scored only three points in a home loss to Notre Dame and last week, Eastern Michigan led MSU 7-3 at the half. I'm going to take Sparty but I could see this one going either way. OSU will have some trouble in its first road game of the season.
Michigan State 20, Ohio State 17
No. 17 Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Eagles are 1-2, coming off a bye week and a 22-13 loss to Northwestern in Chicago. Clemson was outscored 35-9 last week by Florida State after taking a 28-14 lead. Though BC has two weeks to prepare, can't see the Tigers having a letdown and losing this one, unless they "pull a Clemson."
Clemson 33, Boston College 17
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.
The Bearcats have only played two games this year, blowing out Pittsburgh 34-10 on Sept. 6 and beating Delaware State 23-7 last week. The Hokies should have a decent home field advantage in D.C. although I expect there to be a good number of Cincy fans as well. Don't think this will sell out or be anything like the Boise State-Virginia Tech game there a few years ago. The Hokies bounced back from an ugly loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago with a 37-0 shutout of Bowling Green last week. Cincy has been untested, even though it beat the same Pittsburgh team that beat the Hokies. That Pitt Panther team was a different one that had some players missing and was just starting out under a new coach so I don't think the way Cincy and Tech both performed against Pittsburgh is a good way to guess what will happen in this game. The Hokies got their wake up call against Pitt and will be focused from here out I think, and it will take a superior team to beat them, like Clemson or FSU. I'll take the Hokies in this one, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy take an early lead.
Virginia Tech 24, Cincinnati 17
No. 4 Florida State at South Florida, 6 p.m. ESPN
Now we will really see what the Seminoles are made of. It was easy for them to get hyped up at home in a big game against an ACC divisional rival last week in Clemson. Now they have to travel to South Florida to take on a Bull team that probably won't be playing in front of many fans. Will the lack of energy in the stadium contribute to a less energized FSU squad? The 'Noles will also probably be thinking that USF will lie down. The Bulls are 2-2, with losses the last two weeks against Ball State and Rutgers. They also only beat Nevada by one. Dangerous game if the Seminoles are riding their high horse after last week. I think they will struggle but will come out on top because the superior athletes of FSU will overcome the team's sloppiness.
Florida State 26, South Florida 13
No. 12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:50 p.m. FOX
Texas is 3-0, trying to show it's back after a dismal 5-7 record two seasons ago and a still un-Texas like mark of 8-5 in 2011. The Longhorns have scored 37, 45, and 66 points in its three wins thus far, the best one being the most recent one, a 66-31 thrashing of Ole Miss. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hasn't really been able to stop anyone yet. The Cowboys beat up on lowly FCS squad Savannah State by an incredible 84-0 score in Week 1 but then lost 59-38 to Arizona on Sept. 8.
Texas 50, Oklahoma State 35
Wisconsin at No. 22 Nebraska, 8 p.m. ABC
The Badgers have underperformed this season. They were once known as one of the best running teams in the country but Paul Chryst, who was the offensive coordinator there, is now the coach at Pittsburgh. The Badgers are just 87th in rushing yards per game this season. They did have a pick me up in offense last week with the first start of freshman quarterback Joel Stave. Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien disappointed in his time under center. Wisconsin is 3-1, but none of its three victories -- over Northern Iowa, UTEP, and Utah State -- were easy. And it lost to Oregon State 10-7 on the road. Nebraska is 3-1 like Wisconsin and has been better, but has still had its issues like lots of Big Ten teams this season. The Cornhuskers have beaten the likes of Southern Miss (winless this year), Arkansas State, and Idaho State -- not exactly a terrifying run of games. They lost to up and coming UCLA 36-30 in Los Angeles. I'm going to take the Huskers mainly because they are at home and have shown to be a little better than Wisconsin so far. Their offense has been very solid, and will carry them in this game. Their bad defense should get some help from a struggling Badger O.
Nebraska 34, Wisconsin 28
Louisiana Tech at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. ESPN3.com
Didn't really think a mid-year non-conference game against a WAC opponent could be a big game, even a turning point in the season, but this very well could be. Virginia is 2-2, with some winnable ACC games coming up, but has looked quite awful, especially on offense, the past two weeks with 56-20 and 27-7 losses to Georgia Tech and TCU, respectively. The offense had some things working well last week against the Horned Frogs but could not punch it into the end zone, victimized by turnovers and penalties. Michael Rocco threw two interceptions, one of which hit Khalek Sheperd right in the hands and tipped into the air where a TCU defender grabbed it. Kevin Parks fumbled the ball and Phillip Sims fumbled late in the game as well. The offense did record 353 total yards, 164 of which were on the ground, the second-best effort of the season rushing, so that was encouraging. Perry Jones still didn't have a good game, but Kevin Parks racked up 84 yards. The defense held tough despite the repeated failings of the offense and it was only 20-7 late in the fourth quarter against a top 25-ranked team.Today's game is against a strong offensive team in Louisiana Tech, which comes into the contest 3-0. The Bulldogs rank third in points per game, putting up a startling 54.7 points per game. Their wins have come against weak competition, however -- Houston, Rice, and Illinois (which turned the ball over six times). And as good as the offense has been at lighting up the scoreboard, the defense has been pretty bad, allowing 36.7 points per game, 114th in the country, and the 118th worst defense in terms of giving up yards, almost 500 per game. This should be a game where the offense is licking its chops. It has had a hard time finding success the past three weeks but should find the most since the Richmond game against the Bulldogs. This game could come down to some things that UVa hasn't done well recently: turnovers and the running game. Mike London said earlier in the week that Rocco will start under center, but you can tell that he will take Rocco out if things aren't going well so there is lots of pressure on Rocco this week to perform well and lead the team to a win. Rocco is at his best with a strong running game, as is any quarterback really. What I'm saying is that Rocco is a solid QB, but won't lead the team to many wins on his arm alone (an exception would be the FSU game last year -- the offense wasn't awesome, but Rocco led the Cavs on a game-winning drive at the end, and the defense was superb). Rocco needs that running game to soften up the defense and to get the play-action pass working. When defenses zero in on Rocco, he does not look very good. Today would be a great game for Jones to have his breakout performance. "Superman" has been anything but this season, and he hasn't been helped by the offensive line. On the turnover side, Virginia is minus seven so far in that category, tied for 114th worst in the country. The Bulldogs forced six from Illinois last week, as I mentioned earlier. Virginia can move the ball up and down the field all day, but if the 'Hoos turn the ball over a lot, it could be a long day. I think the defense can slow down this Bulldog offense, but giving it extra possessions won't help matters at all.
This game looks a lot like the Southern Miss game last year, a contest UVa lost 30-24 to fall to 2-2. Louisiana Tech is a strong offensive team coming in from a weaker conference, much like Southern Miss was last season out of Conference USA. I think the Golden Eagles were more well-rounded and probably a better overall team than the Bulldogs are this season. This is a gut check game for UVa. If it loses, I don't think it is time to pack up for the season. The team found itself in a tough state of affairs last season and turned it into eight wins eventually. But a loss in this game and the team will have to fight hard just to get to six wins. A win would mean the Cavs could still have some high aspirations. It's time to see if the Cavs are ready to show how much they've improved the past two weeks and show the Georgia Tech and TCU results aren't an accurate reflection on this team.
Louisiana Tech 34, Virginia 30
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