NFL PICKS
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Thanksgiving is about giving thanks to God for your blessings, spending time with family and ... football. The NFL serves up three pretty good games for turkey day 2012, including two pitting teams that hate each other. Last week, I went 5-0 in NFL picks and now stand 39-18 on the year.
Texans at Lions, 12:30 p.m. CBS
Somehow, the Texans got caught up in a wild shootout last week against the Jaguars but pulled out a 43-37 win in overtime. Houston QB and UVa graduate Matt Schaub passed for 527 yards, tied for second most in a game all-time. The Lions had a chance to beat the Packers at home last week but four turnovers did them in and they lost, 24-20. I expect a more focused effort from the Texans defense this week, but they could have another shootout on their hands. Schaub might need to sling it around the field again. The Lions have the best passing offense in the league (301.8 yards per game).
Texans 31, Lions 27
Redskins at Cowboys, 4:15 p.m. FOX
Bitter rivals square off in Dallas with playoff implications on the line. Washington is 4-6 while Dallas is 5-5. A win for one team keeps them very much alive in the playoff hunt -- especially if the Giants continue to stumble -- while a loss by another really puts them up against a wall. Washington QB Robert Griffin III makes his first professional appearance in the state of Texas after a stellar collegiate career at Baylor. The Redskins broke a three-game losing streak last week with a convincing 31-6 blowout of the Eagles while Dallas struggled mightily in the first half against the Browns but played a good second half and overtime to win 23-20. I'm not going to lie. I'm worried about this game. The Redskins looked really good last week while the Cowboys struggled to beat the lowly Browns. And Dallas hasn't had much of a home field advantage in new Cowboys Stadium since it opened. If Tony Romo can have another interception-free game like he's had the past three weeks (though he did have a fumble vs. Cleveland), then the Cowboys have a good chance. RGIII has been great as a rookie this year, though, and Washington also has a capable running game with rookie Alfred Morris actually fifth in the league in yards (869). The game could come down to which defense can step up and make a big play and which quarterback can get more help from his supporting case. Both of last year's games went down to the wire, with Dallas winning at home, 18-16, by hitting six field goals, and in Washington, 27-24, in overtime. Today's game should see more of the same. I see this being a tight matchup until the end.
Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
Patriots at Jets, 8:20 p.m. NBC
New England is on fire lately, winning four straight and putting up 42.5 points per game during that stretch, a stretch that started with a 26-23 overtime win over the Jets. New York has gone the other way since that game, having lost three of four since that loss. The win came last week, 27-13, over the Rams. The Patriots crushed the Colts last week, 59-24, picking off Andrew Luck for a pair of touchdowns. Despite their issues, the Jets, at 4-6, could get back in playoff contention with a win. I don't see it happening though. New England is looking too strong right now. Crazier things have happened though and the Jets always seem to play the Patriots tough.
Patriots 31, Jets 24
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VIRGINIA WILL MISS BOWL GAME AFTER LOSS TO NORTH CAROLINA
The Cavaliers fell to the Tar Heels last Thursday in Charlottesville, assuring they won't go to a bowl for a second consecutive year after going to the Chick-fil-A Bowl last year. The last time Virginia went to bowls two seasons in a row was 2004-2005, when it went to the MPC Computers Bowl and then the Music City Bowl. Virginia had its chances to defeat the Tar Heels but a few plays turned the tide of the game. First, with about four minutes left in the first half, UNC missed a field goal. Virginia got the ball back down 14-10 with a chance to go down the field before halftime and take the lead or make it 14-13 at the break. Michael Rocco promptly threw a pick-six on the next play, however, and the Wahoos instead went into halftime down 20-10. The second series of events occurred when Virginia punted at the end of its first second-half series and Giovani Bernard fumbled, giving the ball to the Cavs at the UNC 12-yard line. Virginia barely gained any yards, though, and came away with just a field goal. The third big moment came on UVa's next offensive series. The defense held UNC to a punt and the offense drove the ball all the way down to the North Carolina 1-yard line and faced a 4th down and decided to run the ball for the fifth straight play, and second in a row up the middle with Kevin Parks. The attempt, of course, failed, and Virginia missed out on a golden opportunity to tie the game. You have to try something different there. A play-action pass. Spread them out and try to find Jake McGee in the end zone. Put in Clifton Richardson, the biggest back UVa has. Something other than a run with one of our small backs. But for some reason, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and/or coach Mike London decided to run the ball again. Just add it the list of questionable decisions the coaching staff has made this season. The final play/series that put the nail in the coffin for UVa was after UNC went up 27-13. The Cavaliers started their drive with a little under 12 minutes to go in the game -- plenty of time to get back into it if they could mount a touchdown drive. On third down, Phillip Sims dropped a perfect pass into Darius Jennings' hands down the field with no one around him, but he dropped the ball and Virginia punted the ball away, where UNC would go on and win 37-13. Jennings likely would have scored on the play. If any play kind of sums up that loss and Virginia's season, it was Jennings' drop. UVa had so many opportunities this year to step up and take the season by the horns but could just never quite break through and do it. Penalties, turnovers, bad playcalling, or just plain bad execution always seemed to trip Virginia up somehow. The 'Hoos had chances to win close games over Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, and Maryland and also led Duke at halftime and had plenty of chances to give UNC all it could handle. It just hasn't happened this year for whatever reason. Whether the problems lie with the players or coaches, the team has not gotten it done this season.
I'm sure I'll talk about all of these issues more after the conclusion of the season but there is still one game to play. Despite the myriad issues this team has experienced this season, it can grab momentum and make a statement if it can somehow beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. The Hokies have won eight straight and 12 of 13 in the series. If the Cavaliers could find a way to pull out an improbable victory Saturday in Blacksburg, however, Virginia could finish ahead of Tech in the ACC Coastal Division standings and keep the Hokies out of a 20th straight bowl game.
More to come and a pick in this game later in the week.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Thanksgiving is about giving thanks to God for your blessings, spending time with family and ... football. The NFL serves up three pretty good games for turkey day 2012, including two pitting teams that hate each other. Last week, I went 5-0 in NFL picks and now stand 39-18 on the year.
Texans at Lions, 12:30 p.m. CBS
Somehow, the Texans got caught up in a wild shootout last week against the Jaguars but pulled out a 43-37 win in overtime. Houston QB and UVa graduate Matt Schaub passed for 527 yards, tied for second most in a game all-time. The Lions had a chance to beat the Packers at home last week but four turnovers did them in and they lost, 24-20. I expect a more focused effort from the Texans defense this week, but they could have another shootout on their hands. Schaub might need to sling it around the field again. The Lions have the best passing offense in the league (301.8 yards per game).
Texans 31, Lions 27
Redskins at Cowboys, 4:15 p.m. FOX
Bitter rivals square off in Dallas with playoff implications on the line. Washington is 4-6 while Dallas is 5-5. A win for one team keeps them very much alive in the playoff hunt -- especially if the Giants continue to stumble -- while a loss by another really puts them up against a wall. Washington QB Robert Griffin III makes his first professional appearance in the state of Texas after a stellar collegiate career at Baylor. The Redskins broke a three-game losing streak last week with a convincing 31-6 blowout of the Eagles while Dallas struggled mightily in the first half against the Browns but played a good second half and overtime to win 23-20. I'm not going to lie. I'm worried about this game. The Redskins looked really good last week while the Cowboys struggled to beat the lowly Browns. And Dallas hasn't had much of a home field advantage in new Cowboys Stadium since it opened. If Tony Romo can have another interception-free game like he's had the past three weeks (though he did have a fumble vs. Cleveland), then the Cowboys have a good chance. RGIII has been great as a rookie this year, though, and Washington also has a capable running game with rookie Alfred Morris actually fifth in the league in yards (869). The game could come down to which defense can step up and make a big play and which quarterback can get more help from his supporting case. Both of last year's games went down to the wire, with Dallas winning at home, 18-16, by hitting six field goals, and in Washington, 27-24, in overtime. Today's game should see more of the same. I see this being a tight matchup until the end.
Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
Patriots at Jets, 8:20 p.m. NBC
New England is on fire lately, winning four straight and putting up 42.5 points per game during that stretch, a stretch that started with a 26-23 overtime win over the Jets. New York has gone the other way since that game, having lost three of four since that loss. The win came last week, 27-13, over the Rams. The Patriots crushed the Colts last week, 59-24, picking off Andrew Luck for a pair of touchdowns. Despite their issues, the Jets, at 4-6, could get back in playoff contention with a win. I don't see it happening though. New England is looking too strong right now. Crazier things have happened though and the Jets always seem to play the Patriots tough.
Patriots 31, Jets 24
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VIRGINIA WILL MISS BOWL GAME AFTER LOSS TO NORTH CAROLINA
The Cavaliers fell to the Tar Heels last Thursday in Charlottesville, assuring they won't go to a bowl for a second consecutive year after going to the Chick-fil-A Bowl last year. The last time Virginia went to bowls two seasons in a row was 2004-2005, when it went to the MPC Computers Bowl and then the Music City Bowl. Virginia had its chances to defeat the Tar Heels but a few plays turned the tide of the game. First, with about four minutes left in the first half, UNC missed a field goal. Virginia got the ball back down 14-10 with a chance to go down the field before halftime and take the lead or make it 14-13 at the break. Michael Rocco promptly threw a pick-six on the next play, however, and the Wahoos instead went into halftime down 20-10. The second series of events occurred when Virginia punted at the end of its first second-half series and Giovani Bernard fumbled, giving the ball to the Cavs at the UNC 12-yard line. Virginia barely gained any yards, though, and came away with just a field goal. The third big moment came on UVa's next offensive series. The defense held UNC to a punt and the offense drove the ball all the way down to the North Carolina 1-yard line and faced a 4th down and decided to run the ball for the fifth straight play, and second in a row up the middle with Kevin Parks. The attempt, of course, failed, and Virginia missed out on a golden opportunity to tie the game. You have to try something different there. A play-action pass. Spread them out and try to find Jake McGee in the end zone. Put in Clifton Richardson, the biggest back UVa has. Something other than a run with one of our small backs. But for some reason, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and/or coach Mike London decided to run the ball again. Just add it the list of questionable decisions the coaching staff has made this season. The final play/series that put the nail in the coffin for UVa was after UNC went up 27-13. The Cavaliers started their drive with a little under 12 minutes to go in the game -- plenty of time to get back into it if they could mount a touchdown drive. On third down, Phillip Sims dropped a perfect pass into Darius Jennings' hands down the field with no one around him, but he dropped the ball and Virginia punted the ball away, where UNC would go on and win 37-13. Jennings likely would have scored on the play. If any play kind of sums up that loss and Virginia's season, it was Jennings' drop. UVa had so many opportunities this year to step up and take the season by the horns but could just never quite break through and do it. Penalties, turnovers, bad playcalling, or just plain bad execution always seemed to trip Virginia up somehow. The 'Hoos had chances to win close games over Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, and Maryland and also led Duke at halftime and had plenty of chances to give UNC all it could handle. It just hasn't happened this year for whatever reason. Whether the problems lie with the players or coaches, the team has not gotten it done this season.
I'm sure I'll talk about all of these issues more after the conclusion of the season but there is still one game to play. Despite the myriad issues this team has experienced this season, it can grab momentum and make a statement if it can somehow beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. The Hokies have won eight straight and 12 of 13 in the series. If the Cavaliers could find a way to pull out an improbable victory Saturday in Blacksburg, however, Virginia could finish ahead of Tech in the ACC Coastal Division standings and keep the Hokies out of a 20th straight bowl game.
More to come and a pick in this game later in the week.
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