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I went 2-2 in last week's picks. The Wild-Card games were mostly disappointing. Hopefully the Divisional Weekend gives us some better games.
Saturday
Ravens at Broncos, 4:30 p.m. CBS
The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the Ravens won against the Colts in Baltimore last week, 24-9. These teams played in the regular season Week 14 in Baltimore and Denver rolled to a 34-17 victory. The Ravens are playing better now and have Ray Lewis back in the lineup. He had 13 tackles against the Colts last Sunday. But the Broncos are playing superior ball right now. They have won 11 straight games and Peyton Manning has been on fire with his new team. The defense is hitting on all cylinders, too, and will probably give Ravens QB Joe Flacco fits. He had a terrible game against them in the regular season, completing just 20 of 40 passes for two TDs and an INT. Flacco is 5-0 in first games of the playoffs but just 1-3 in second playoff games. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the 20s and teens, and Manning is winless in playoff games when it is below 40, but Denver is the favorite now and Manning has been practicing in the cold so I don't expect that to be as big a factor as it was when Manning was used to the climate-controlled dome as a Colt. I do expect the Broncos crowd to be a factor. The stadium is one of the loudest in the NFL and it is known for being a mile above sea level, and this could gas some of Baltimore's players. In the end, I think the Broncos are just playing too well for the the Ravens to overcome, though it will be closer than the regular-season meeting. One concern I do have for Denver is look at its 11-game win streak. The Broncos haven't exactly beaten the best of the NFL during that stretch but it did top Baltimore, probably the toughest opponent during that portion of the Broncos' schedule.
Broncos 24, Ravens 16
Packers at 49ers, 8 p.m.
Green Bay advanced to this game by beating the Vikings, 24-10, at home last week. The 49ers are the No. 2 seed in the NFC. This game is also a rematch of a game in the regular season, but it was Week 1, so a lot has changed since that contest and I don't think you can translate as much from it as you can from the Ravens-Broncos late-season game. In the first meeting, San Francisco went into Green Bay and defeated the Packers 30-22 in a matchup that wasn't as close as the score. 49ers QB Alex Smith played well in that game, but he isn't even the starter now as Colin Kaepernick took over when Smith got a concussion against the Rams during Week 10 and he's started ever since. Kaepernick has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just three picks. He's played remarkably well for just a second-year player. In an interview with ESPN this week, he revealed he has a chip on his shoulder for getting passed over by a number of teams in the draft two seasons ago. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers also plays with the proverbial chip on his shoulder. He actually got passed up by the 49ers for Smith (No. 1 pick) during the 2005 draft. An interesting tidbit about this game is Kaepernick is from Milwaukee and Rodgers is from near San Francisco, so both are playing sort of their hometown teams. I have high expectations for this game. It reminds me of some of the classic playoff games in the 90s between these two teams when I was first getting into football. I think this could be one of the better games of the season. Green Bay is playing better than it was in that first meeting at Lambeau, but you could argue the 49ers are, too, and have a more dynamic QB than when Smith was under center. Kaepernick can make plays with both his arm and legs. I'm going to pick the 49ers, but I really think this one could go either way. I think Rodgers outplays Kaepernick, but the second-year player out of Nevada has a better overall team that will make enough plays down the stretch to snag the victory.
49ers 31, Packers 28
Sunday
Seahawks at Falcons, 1 p.m. FOX
It is hard to pick the Falcons in this game even though it is in the Georgia Dome. They've flamed out in the their past three postseason appearances, going 0-3. Last year, it was a meager performance against the Giants in the Meadowlands for a 24-2 loss. In 2010, Atlanta took a beating in front of its home crowd courtesy of Green Bay, 48-21. And in 2008, Arizona won out in the desert, 30-24. The Falcons have yet to prove they are a tough team in the playoffs. Not that the Seahawks have been either in their history. Before last week's win at Washington, Seattle's last postseason victory came in 2010 as a 7-9 team when it ambushed the Saints in Seattle. But the Seahawks have slowly evolved into a very tough, hard-nosed team that is known for its defense and running attack. Marshawn Lynch is one of the better running backs in the league and Russell Wilson has developed into a solid passer and he can also make plays with his legs. Matt Ryan and Co. don't strike fear into opponents in the playoffs. Teams view the Falcons as soft. Atlanta has a couple great receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White, but the Seahawks have a pair of physical cornerbacks, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, that match up well with them. The Seahawks come in as the hot team, having won six straight games and dispatching the second-hottest team in the NFL last week in Washington. The Falcons went 13-3 this year and captured the NFC's No. 1 seed, but had some close calls, beating the Broncos by six (Week 2's Broncos, not late-season Broncos), Panthers by two, Redskins by seven, Raiders by three, Cowboys by six, Cardinals by four, and Bucs by one. Their three losses were to not-so-good teams: Saints, Panthers, and Bucs. That's seven close wins. In another year, Atlanta could be just a Wild-Card team, or out of the playoffs. The Bucs loss occurred at home in Week 17 with the Falcons still playing their starters. Not the way you want to go into the postseason. Atlanta passes the ball well (6th in the NFL), but doesn't do anything else particularly well: 29th in rushing yards, 23rd in pass defense, and 21st in rush defense.
Seahawks 21, Falcons 17
Texans at Patriots, 4:30 p.m. CBS
The capper to the weekend is another rematch of a game earlier this season. It was supposed to be an epic Monday night showdown between two powers of the AFC during Week 14. Instead, the Patriots absolutely smashed the Texans in Foxborough, 42-14. Tom Brady completed 21 of his 35 passes for 296 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His counterpart, Matt Schaub, wasn't too far off those numbers, completing 19 of 32 passes for 232 yards but he didn't throw a touchdown and threw one pick. The Texans had a hard time scoring touchdowns in last week's 19-13 home win over the Bengals. Schaub said this week he knows the team has to score touchdowns once it gets in the red zone. If it doesn't, this game could get ugly like the first meeting. Houston has lost three of its past five games while New England has lost just once in its past 10 games. The Patriots have a solid rush defense this year (9th in NFL), and that will come in handy in trying to stop Texans running back Arian Foster. The Patriots are 29th against the pass, though, so Schaub will have to make some plays for his squad to come out on top. I'm pulling for him since he is a UVa guy, but I just can't see him pulling this one out at New England. Winning at Gillette Stadium is a tall order for any QB, and Schaub just doesn't seem to have what it takes, at least right now. Hopefully I am proved wrong but there is just so much that has to go right for the Texans to win this game because they were simply outclassed in the regular-season meeting. They couldn't stop the Patriots and they couldn't score on them, either. But, stranger things have happened. Two seasons ago, the Patriots had beaten the Jets in Foxborough 45-3 late in the regular season then had to play them in the playoffs, but lost in a stunner, 28-21 at home. Huge props to the Texans if they can pull off a similar feat but I don't see it. I do, however, think it will be a closer game than the first meeting.
Patriots 31, Texans 17
I went 2-2 in last week's picks. The Wild-Card games were mostly disappointing. Hopefully the Divisional Weekend gives us some better games.
Saturday
Ravens at Broncos, 4:30 p.m. CBS
The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the Ravens won against the Colts in Baltimore last week, 24-9. These teams played in the regular season Week 14 in Baltimore and Denver rolled to a 34-17 victory. The Ravens are playing better now and have Ray Lewis back in the lineup. He had 13 tackles against the Colts last Sunday. But the Broncos are playing superior ball right now. They have won 11 straight games and Peyton Manning has been on fire with his new team. The defense is hitting on all cylinders, too, and will probably give Ravens QB Joe Flacco fits. He had a terrible game against them in the regular season, completing just 20 of 40 passes for two TDs and an INT. Flacco is 5-0 in first games of the playoffs but just 1-3 in second playoff games. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the 20s and teens, and Manning is winless in playoff games when it is below 40, but Denver is the favorite now and Manning has been practicing in the cold so I don't expect that to be as big a factor as it was when Manning was used to the climate-controlled dome as a Colt. I do expect the Broncos crowd to be a factor. The stadium is one of the loudest in the NFL and it is known for being a mile above sea level, and this could gas some of Baltimore's players. In the end, I think the Broncos are just playing too well for the the Ravens to overcome, though it will be closer than the regular-season meeting. One concern I do have for Denver is look at its 11-game win streak. The Broncos haven't exactly beaten the best of the NFL during that stretch but it did top Baltimore, probably the toughest opponent during that portion of the Broncos' schedule.
Broncos 24, Ravens 16
Packers at 49ers, 8 p.m.
Green Bay advanced to this game by beating the Vikings, 24-10, at home last week. The 49ers are the No. 2 seed in the NFC. This game is also a rematch of a game in the regular season, but it was Week 1, so a lot has changed since that contest and I don't think you can translate as much from it as you can from the Ravens-Broncos late-season game. In the first meeting, San Francisco went into Green Bay and defeated the Packers 30-22 in a matchup that wasn't as close as the score. 49ers QB Alex Smith played well in that game, but he isn't even the starter now as Colin Kaepernick took over when Smith got a concussion against the Rams during Week 10 and he's started ever since. Kaepernick has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just three picks. He's played remarkably well for just a second-year player. In an interview with ESPN this week, he revealed he has a chip on his shoulder for getting passed over by a number of teams in the draft two seasons ago. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers also plays with the proverbial chip on his shoulder. He actually got passed up by the 49ers for Smith (No. 1 pick) during the 2005 draft. An interesting tidbit about this game is Kaepernick is from Milwaukee and Rodgers is from near San Francisco, so both are playing sort of their hometown teams. I have high expectations for this game. It reminds me of some of the classic playoff games in the 90s between these two teams when I was first getting into football. I think this could be one of the better games of the season. Green Bay is playing better than it was in that first meeting at Lambeau, but you could argue the 49ers are, too, and have a more dynamic QB than when Smith was under center. Kaepernick can make plays with both his arm and legs. I'm going to pick the 49ers, but I really think this one could go either way. I think Rodgers outplays Kaepernick, but the second-year player out of Nevada has a better overall team that will make enough plays down the stretch to snag the victory.
49ers 31, Packers 28
Sunday
Seahawks at Falcons, 1 p.m. FOX
It is hard to pick the Falcons in this game even though it is in the Georgia Dome. They've flamed out in the their past three postseason appearances, going 0-3. Last year, it was a meager performance against the Giants in the Meadowlands for a 24-2 loss. In 2010, Atlanta took a beating in front of its home crowd courtesy of Green Bay, 48-21. And in 2008, Arizona won out in the desert, 30-24. The Falcons have yet to prove they are a tough team in the playoffs. Not that the Seahawks have been either in their history. Before last week's win at Washington, Seattle's last postseason victory came in 2010 as a 7-9 team when it ambushed the Saints in Seattle. But the Seahawks have slowly evolved into a very tough, hard-nosed team that is known for its defense and running attack. Marshawn Lynch is one of the better running backs in the league and Russell Wilson has developed into a solid passer and he can also make plays with his legs. Matt Ryan and Co. don't strike fear into opponents in the playoffs. Teams view the Falcons as soft. Atlanta has a couple great receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White, but the Seahawks have a pair of physical cornerbacks, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, that match up well with them. The Seahawks come in as the hot team, having won six straight games and dispatching the second-hottest team in the NFL last week in Washington. The Falcons went 13-3 this year and captured the NFC's No. 1 seed, but had some close calls, beating the Broncos by six (Week 2's Broncos, not late-season Broncos), Panthers by two, Redskins by seven, Raiders by three, Cowboys by six, Cardinals by four, and Bucs by one. Their three losses were to not-so-good teams: Saints, Panthers, and Bucs. That's seven close wins. In another year, Atlanta could be just a Wild-Card team, or out of the playoffs. The Bucs loss occurred at home in Week 17 with the Falcons still playing their starters. Not the way you want to go into the postseason. Atlanta passes the ball well (6th in the NFL), but doesn't do anything else particularly well: 29th in rushing yards, 23rd in pass defense, and 21st in rush defense.
Seahawks 21, Falcons 17
Texans at Patriots, 4:30 p.m. CBS
The capper to the weekend is another rematch of a game earlier this season. It was supposed to be an epic Monday night showdown between two powers of the AFC during Week 14. Instead, the Patriots absolutely smashed the Texans in Foxborough, 42-14. Tom Brady completed 21 of his 35 passes for 296 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His counterpart, Matt Schaub, wasn't too far off those numbers, completing 19 of 32 passes for 232 yards but he didn't throw a touchdown and threw one pick. The Texans had a hard time scoring touchdowns in last week's 19-13 home win over the Bengals. Schaub said this week he knows the team has to score touchdowns once it gets in the red zone. If it doesn't, this game could get ugly like the first meeting. Houston has lost three of its past five games while New England has lost just once in its past 10 games. The Patriots have a solid rush defense this year (9th in NFL), and that will come in handy in trying to stop Texans running back Arian Foster. The Patriots are 29th against the pass, though, so Schaub will have to make some plays for his squad to come out on top. I'm pulling for him since he is a UVa guy, but I just can't see him pulling this one out at New England. Winning at Gillette Stadium is a tall order for any QB, and Schaub just doesn't seem to have what it takes, at least right now. Hopefully I am proved wrong but there is just so much that has to go right for the Texans to win this game because they were simply outclassed in the regular-season meeting. They couldn't stop the Patriots and they couldn't score on them, either. But, stranger things have happened. Two seasons ago, the Patriots had beaten the Jets in Foxborough 45-3 late in the regular season then had to play them in the playoffs, but lost in a stunner, 28-21 at home. Huge props to the Texans if they can pull off a similar feat but I don't see it. I do, however, think it will be a closer game than the first meeting.
Patriots 31, Texans 17
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