Duke at Virginia, 9 p.m. ESPN
Note: Don't forget to vote in my poll. How many ACC wins will Virginia end up with? Make a bold choice before the Duke game, but you don't have to. Poll is open until Sunday evening.
The Cavaliers have a chance tonight to take a step toward landing an NCAA tournament bid when the No. 3 Blue Devils come to John Paul Jones Arena.
Duke is 24-3 and 11-3 in the ACC. Virginia is 19-8 and 9-5 in the conference. Duke's losses are to Miami (on the road, 90-63), N.C. State (on the road, 84-76) and Maryland (on the road, 83-81). Duke has been a much better team at home this year. At home, Duke beat Maryland 84-64, defeated N.C. State, 98-85, crushed Wake Forest, 80-62, and whipped Boston College, 89-68 (last time out Sunday). In addition to those wins by those other teams over Duke in their home arenas, these other teams that lost to Duke nearly pulled off victories over the Blue Devils when they played them on their home courts. Wake Forest lost in Winston-Salem, 75-70, and Boston College lost by just a point, 62-61, in Chestnut Hill. The Blue Devils' road woes are good news for the Wahoos, who are 16-1 at JPJ this year and have a JPJ-record 15-game winning streak in the building. Virginia has, for the most part, played much better at home than on the road.
Duke and Virginia met one time last year and engaged in a spirited battle in which UVa almost came out of Cameron Indoor Stadium with a win. The Cavs led, 32-28 at the half, but ultimately fell, 61-58. Duke has won eight straight in the series and 17 of the last 18. The last time Virginia beat Duke was Feb. 1, 2007, during a memorable overtime game at JPJ. I was a freshman at the time and I went to the game and it is one of my favorite sports memories. Sean Singletary hit a 15-foot jumper from the elbow to tie the game late as the Cavs battled back from a 59-51 deficit with 3:42 left. The game was knotted at 61 after regulation. In overtime, Singletary hit a running floater falling down from the baseline over Duke's DeMarcus Nelson and Josh McRoberts that sent the crowd into a frenzy and gave the 'Hoos a 68-66 lead with one second remaining, which ended up being the final score. I was completely exhausted but satisfied after the game. I cheered so hard and loud that I think it weakened my immune system because I got a cold the next morning after the game. Singletary will always be remembered for "The Shot," but he managed 17 points in the game while J.R. Reynolds carried the load with 25 points.
Picture of Singletary's shot:
And here is a great fan-made video of Singletary's winning shot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmkZbmyR1KA
Alright, enough reminiscing. It is time for these Cavs to leave their mark and get a rare win over Duke. Singletary's game-winner is a nice memory, but it is time for the 'Hoos to create a new one.
It is going to be tough. These Blue Devils are not as good as some Duke teams, but I think they are better than last year's team and they are in the running to be one of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. They have lost some of their edge without injured senior forward Ryan Kelly. He hurt his foot Jan. 8. Before his injury, Duke was 15-0. Since, it is 9-3. He provided 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game for the Blue Devils and he was making over 50 percent of his 3-point shots. He is expected back against Miami on Saturday or next week against Virginia Tech. Virginia is lucky to have just missed Duke with Kelly in the lineup. I think he makes them that much more dangerous. With him starting, Duke ran off a string of impressive pre-ACC victories over Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, and Ohio State.
But, the Cavs don't have to worry about him. Still, the Blue Devils are loaded. They feature four other players who average double figures in points per game: senior center Mason Plumlee (17.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg), senior guard Seth Curry (16.8 ppg), sophomore guard Quinn Cook (12.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 3.8 rpg), and freshman guard Rasheed Sulaimon (12.4, 3.4 rpg). Plumlee is shooting a tad over 59 percent from the field (second in the ACC) and is an ACC Player of the Year candidate. The Blue Devils don't have a ton of depth after that strong first four. Duke has been starting a mixture of junior Josh Hairston and freshman Amile Jefferson in place of Kelly. Hairston is averaging 2.9 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while Jefferson is putting up 4.7 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Both have double-figure games recently, though, with Hairston putting up back-to-back 11-point efforts last week against Virginia Tech and Maryland and Jefferson recording a career-high 14 against Boston College on Sunday. Tyler Thornton comes in to play point guard off the bench and averages 3.4 points and 2.6 assists per game.
Duke is good at a lot of things as a team. It leads the ACC in scoring at 78.9 ppg, is second in free throw percentage (72.2), ranks second in field goal percentage (47.6) and first in 3-point percentage (41.6, Virginia is second at 40.4) and is first in 3-point percentage defense (29.6). The Blue Devils also rank third in the ACC in assists and steals per game.
With Kelly out, Duke features three players who are making over 40 percent of their 3s: Curry, Sulaimon, and Cook. Thornton makes 37.3 percent of his 3s but doesn't shoot as often as those first three guys.
Duke is not great at rebounding -- Plumlee is 6-foot-10 but after that, no one that plays a lot of minutes is above 6-foot-8 -- and on average, gets outrebounded by 0.4 rebounds per game.
Virginia will need to be firing on all cylinders to snag this win. Joe Harris will get his points probably, but he will need help. A double-double from Akil Mitchell would be nice. A few 3s from Paul Jesperson, Evan Nolte, and maybe even Taylor Barnette would work wonders. Justin Anderson having another double-digit point effort and pumping up the crowd with a dunk would be solid. Jontel Evans playing a mostly turnover-free game could be key. A lot of times this year, it seems like as Evans goes, so go the 'Hoos. Mike Tobey is coming back from mono and had a good game Sunday and hopefully he builds on that. If Virginia could get a bucket or two and a few minutes and rebounds out of Darion Atkins that would be a big bonus. Everyone will need to do their part tonight.
This would be a huge win for the 'Hoos (RPI 69) if they can pull it off. Duke is No. 1 in RPI and Virginia could really launch itself to the 60-ish mark in RPI with a victory. Sixty is usually a good spot to be to have a chance to make the tournament, though most experts seem to think Virginia would be in the tournament if the selection committee made its decisions today.
A win today and Virginia could afford to slip up against Boston College or Florida State on the road. The Cavs close with a home game against Maryland, a game you would like to think we'd win because we've been lights out at home. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would give UVa a better chance to beat Maryland at home than to win either game at FSU or BC. If Virginia loses to Duke, it seemingly has to win out in the regular season to make the tournament. A big victory over Duke would pad the tournament resume and allow for some breathing room.
Note: Don't forget to vote in my poll. How many ACC wins will Virginia end up with? Make a bold choice before the Duke game, but you don't have to. Poll is open until Sunday evening.
The Cavaliers have a chance tonight to take a step toward landing an NCAA tournament bid when the No. 3 Blue Devils come to John Paul Jones Arena.
Duke is 24-3 and 11-3 in the ACC. Virginia is 19-8 and 9-5 in the conference. Duke's losses are to Miami (on the road, 90-63), N.C. State (on the road, 84-76) and Maryland (on the road, 83-81). Duke has been a much better team at home this year. At home, Duke beat Maryland 84-64, defeated N.C. State, 98-85, crushed Wake Forest, 80-62, and whipped Boston College, 89-68 (last time out Sunday). In addition to those wins by those other teams over Duke in their home arenas, these other teams that lost to Duke nearly pulled off victories over the Blue Devils when they played them on their home courts. Wake Forest lost in Winston-Salem, 75-70, and Boston College lost by just a point, 62-61, in Chestnut Hill. The Blue Devils' road woes are good news for the Wahoos, who are 16-1 at JPJ this year and have a JPJ-record 15-game winning streak in the building. Virginia has, for the most part, played much better at home than on the road.
Duke and Virginia met one time last year and engaged in a spirited battle in which UVa almost came out of Cameron Indoor Stadium with a win. The Cavs led, 32-28 at the half, but ultimately fell, 61-58. Duke has won eight straight in the series and 17 of the last 18. The last time Virginia beat Duke was Feb. 1, 2007, during a memorable overtime game at JPJ. I was a freshman at the time and I went to the game and it is one of my favorite sports memories. Sean Singletary hit a 15-foot jumper from the elbow to tie the game late as the Cavs battled back from a 59-51 deficit with 3:42 left. The game was knotted at 61 after regulation. In overtime, Singletary hit a running floater falling down from the baseline over Duke's DeMarcus Nelson and Josh McRoberts that sent the crowd into a frenzy and gave the 'Hoos a 68-66 lead with one second remaining, which ended up being the final score. I was completely exhausted but satisfied after the game. I cheered so hard and loud that I think it weakened my immune system because I got a cold the next morning after the game. Singletary will always be remembered for "The Shot," but he managed 17 points in the game while J.R. Reynolds carried the load with 25 points.
Picture of Singletary's shot:
And here is a great fan-made video of Singletary's winning shot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmkZbmyR1KA
Alright, enough reminiscing. It is time for these Cavs to leave their mark and get a rare win over Duke. Singletary's game-winner is a nice memory, but it is time for the 'Hoos to create a new one.
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| Ryan Kelly |
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| Mason Plumlee |
But, the Cavs don't have to worry about him. Still, the Blue Devils are loaded. They feature four other players who average double figures in points per game: senior center Mason Plumlee (17.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg), senior guard Seth Curry (16.8 ppg), sophomore guard Quinn Cook (12.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 3.8 rpg), and freshman guard Rasheed Sulaimon (12.4, 3.4 rpg). Plumlee is shooting a tad over 59 percent from the field (second in the ACC) and is an ACC Player of the Year candidate. The Blue Devils don't have a ton of depth after that strong first four. Duke has been starting a mixture of junior Josh Hairston and freshman Amile Jefferson in place of Kelly. Hairston is averaging 2.9 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while Jefferson is putting up 4.7 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Both have double-figure games recently, though, with Hairston putting up back-to-back 11-point efforts last week against Virginia Tech and Maryland and Jefferson recording a career-high 14 against Boston College on Sunday. Tyler Thornton comes in to play point guard off the bench and averages 3.4 points and 2.6 assists per game.
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| Seth Curry |
Duke is good at a lot of things as a team. It leads the ACC in scoring at 78.9 ppg, is second in free throw percentage (72.2), ranks second in field goal percentage (47.6) and first in 3-point percentage (41.6, Virginia is second at 40.4) and is first in 3-point percentage defense (29.6). The Blue Devils also rank third in the ACC in assists and steals per game.
With Kelly out, Duke features three players who are making over 40 percent of their 3s: Curry, Sulaimon, and Cook. Thornton makes 37.3 percent of his 3s but doesn't shoot as often as those first three guys.
Duke is not great at rebounding -- Plumlee is 6-foot-10 but after that, no one that plays a lot of minutes is above 6-foot-8 -- and on average, gets outrebounded by 0.4 rebounds per game.
Virginia will need to be firing on all cylinders to snag this win. Joe Harris will get his points probably, but he will need help. A double-double from Akil Mitchell would be nice. A few 3s from Paul Jesperson, Evan Nolte, and maybe even Taylor Barnette would work wonders. Justin Anderson having another double-digit point effort and pumping up the crowd with a dunk would be solid. Jontel Evans playing a mostly turnover-free game could be key. A lot of times this year, it seems like as Evans goes, so go the 'Hoos. Mike Tobey is coming back from mono and had a good game Sunday and hopefully he builds on that. If Virginia could get a bucket or two and a few minutes and rebounds out of Darion Atkins that would be a big bonus. Everyone will need to do their part tonight.
This would be a huge win for the 'Hoos (RPI 69) if they can pull it off. Duke is No. 1 in RPI and Virginia could really launch itself to the 60-ish mark in RPI with a victory. Sixty is usually a good spot to be to have a chance to make the tournament, though most experts seem to think Virginia would be in the tournament if the selection committee made its decisions today.
A win today and Virginia could afford to slip up against Boston College or Florida State on the road. The Cavs close with a home game against Maryland, a game you would like to think we'd win because we've been lights out at home. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would give UVa a better chance to beat Maryland at home than to win either game at FSU or BC. If Virginia loses to Duke, it seemingly has to win out in the regular season to make the tournament. A big victory over Duke would pad the tournament resume and allow for some breathing room.
No score prediction, Aaron? You mentioned a few guys who need to step up tonight for Virginia to have a chance at the upset. What would you say is the No. 1 thing the Cavaliers need to do team-wise to win? Outrebound Duke? Hold them below 60?
ReplyDeleteIf you notice, I haven't made score predictions for any basketball games. I did for football games. Never have for hoops. I dont know why haha. Just not feeling it. Yeah all those guys will need to step up. We will need more than just one or two role players to play well. Jontel is the straw that stirs the drink, though. Based on his stat line after the game it might be easy to guess who won. Main thing Virginia needs to do is limit turnovers and thus easy baskets for the Blue Devils.
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