Clemson at Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN2
"This is one of the weirdest at-large profiles in recent memory ... there is much work to be done."
The quote above is from ESPN.com's Eamonn Brennan's first Bubble Watch of the year, a feature on the website that looks at the profile of tons of NCAA basketball teams that are possibly worthy of making the NCAA tournament. Brennan is describing, of course, the strange, up-and-down profile of Virginia. The Cavaliers have an RPI of 100, which is about 40 spots from normally getting at-large consideration, and their strength of schedule is 233, also quite bad. The most vexing part is that UVa is 3-0 against the top 50 in RPI and 5-0 vs. the top 100 but it is also has six losses to sub-100 RPI teams Delaware (bad because at home), ODU (bad because neutral court, which is what NCAA tourney games are played on and because ODU is terrible), George Mason, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.
Despite some really solid victories, these questionable losses will cause the selection committee to raise some eyebrows even if UVa ends up having better numbers. Brennan is right, the 'Hoos have a lot of work to do if they want to make the dance. My guess and the guess of most fans seems to be that the 'Hoos will have to get to 12-6 in the ACC to have a shot, which means they would have to go 7-3 over their final 10 games. 11-7 might work if those wins include victories over Duke, North Carolina, and/or Miami.
The road to recovery begins tonight for the Cavaliers when they host a Tiger team that basically had their way with the Cavs during the second half of the first meeting of the year at Clemson on Jan. 12. This is the first time Virginia will face an ACC team it has already played this year. Virginia scored just 20 points in the first half and 44 overall in a game Clemson won, 59-44, outscoring the Wahoos 35-24 in the second half. Senior Milton Jennings scored a then-career high 21 points on 5 of 8 shooting from beyond the arc and also scooped up 11 rebounds. He has since scored 28 points in a game against Virginia Tech, so the 'Hoos don't have the dubious distinction of giving Jennings his career high anymore.
Also in that contest, senior Devin Booker put in 15 points despite just 3 of 10 shooting (he made 9 of 12 free throws) and gathered nine rebounds. The big man also had two thunderous blocks on consecutive shots that were crucial in keeping UVa from making a run in the second half. Sophomore K.J. McDaniels was not a big factor on the offensive end with just six points, but he showed his athleticism and blocked three shots. He averages 11.1 points per game, though, so you would have to give him a good shot to rebound and have a better offensive game against Virginia this time around.
In that game, Clemson shot 77 percent in the second half so coach Tony Bennett will surely be looking for a better defensive effort from the Wahoos. Hopefully, more whistles go UVa's way at home, something that can help it on both the offensive and defense ends of the floor. At Clemson, the Tigers were called for just 13 fouls but shot 27 free throws. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were called for 17 fouls and shot just eight free throws.
Since beating UVa, Clemson has gone 3-3, with no big wins of note (Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech), but it did have close road losses to good teams N.C. State (66-62 on the road) and Florida State (60-57). The Tigers most recently had a vexing, 75-68 road loss at Boston College when the Eagles shot the lights out and made 11 3-pointers. Hopefully UVa receives the benefit of shoddy perimeter defense again from the Tigers. More likely is Clemson, which hasn't played since Saturday, will have strengthened that area of its defense over the past few days.
In the earlier meeting against the Tigers, only Joe Harris scored in double figures for UVa and he did not have a good game, with only 14 points on 5 of 13 shooting from beyond the arc. Virginia must also get better outings from Akil Mitchell (seven points), Jontel Evans (two points, three assists, five turnovers), Mike Tobey (six points, two rebounds), Evan Nolte (six points, though he did make 2 of 3 from 3), and Justin Anderson (0 points). I would have to think that Anderson will have a better game because he has done better since then, scoring eight, 11, 16, two, and 10 points, so I think the chances of Anderson recording a goose egg again is slim. Also, I said after the Georgia Tech game that Tobey must be more involved in the offense. He is too good of a shooter to only take two free throws in nine minutes like he did against the Yellow Jackets. He scored 13 against N.C. State and was a big reason why UVa pulled that victory off.
Virginia faces an uphill climb if it wants to make the big dance. That journey begins tonight at John Paul Jones Arena and the Cavaliers can take a step by avenging an earlier loss to Clemson.
"This is one of the weirdest at-large profiles in recent memory ... there is much work to be done."
The quote above is from ESPN.com's Eamonn Brennan's first Bubble Watch of the year, a feature on the website that looks at the profile of tons of NCAA basketball teams that are possibly worthy of making the NCAA tournament. Brennan is describing, of course, the strange, up-and-down profile of Virginia. The Cavaliers have an RPI of 100, which is about 40 spots from normally getting at-large consideration, and their strength of schedule is 233, also quite bad. The most vexing part is that UVa is 3-0 against the top 50 in RPI and 5-0 vs. the top 100 but it is also has six losses to sub-100 RPI teams Delaware (bad because at home), ODU (bad because neutral court, which is what NCAA tourney games are played on and because ODU is terrible), George Mason, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.
Despite some really solid victories, these questionable losses will cause the selection committee to raise some eyebrows even if UVa ends up having better numbers. Brennan is right, the 'Hoos have a lot of work to do if they want to make the dance. My guess and the guess of most fans seems to be that the 'Hoos will have to get to 12-6 in the ACC to have a shot, which means they would have to go 7-3 over their final 10 games. 11-7 might work if those wins include victories over Duke, North Carolina, and/or Miami.
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| Clemson senior forward Milton Jennings |
Also in that contest, senior Devin Booker put in 15 points despite just 3 of 10 shooting (he made 9 of 12 free throws) and gathered nine rebounds. The big man also had two thunderous blocks on consecutive shots that were crucial in keeping UVa from making a run in the second half. Sophomore K.J. McDaniels was not a big factor on the offensive end with just six points, but he showed his athleticism and blocked three shots. He averages 11.1 points per game, though, so you would have to give him a good shot to rebound and have a better offensive game against Virginia this time around.
In that game, Clemson shot 77 percent in the second half so coach Tony Bennett will surely be looking for a better defensive effort from the Wahoos. Hopefully, more whistles go UVa's way at home, something that can help it on both the offensive and defense ends of the floor. At Clemson, the Tigers were called for just 13 fouls but shot 27 free throws. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were called for 17 fouls and shot just eight free throws.
Since beating UVa, Clemson has gone 3-3, with no big wins of note (Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech), but it did have close road losses to good teams N.C. State (66-62 on the road) and Florida State (60-57). The Tigers most recently had a vexing, 75-68 road loss at Boston College when the Eagles shot the lights out and made 11 3-pointers. Hopefully UVa receives the benefit of shoddy perimeter defense again from the Tigers. More likely is Clemson, which hasn't played since Saturday, will have strengthened that area of its defense over the past few days.
In the earlier meeting against the Tigers, only Joe Harris scored in double figures for UVa and he did not have a good game, with only 14 points on 5 of 13 shooting from beyond the arc. Virginia must also get better outings from Akil Mitchell (seven points), Jontel Evans (two points, three assists, five turnovers), Mike Tobey (six points, two rebounds), Evan Nolte (six points, though he did make 2 of 3 from 3), and Justin Anderson (0 points). I would have to think that Anderson will have a better game because he has done better since then, scoring eight, 11, 16, two, and 10 points, so I think the chances of Anderson recording a goose egg again is slim. Also, I said after the Georgia Tech game that Tobey must be more involved in the offense. He is too good of a shooter to only take two free throws in nine minutes like he did against the Yellow Jackets. He scored 13 against N.C. State and was a big reason why UVa pulled that victory off.
Virginia faces an uphill climb if it wants to make the big dance. That journey begins tonight at John Paul Jones Arena and the Cavaliers can take a step by avenging an earlier loss to Clemson.
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