College picks

Got busy today with writing my men's basketball season preview and it isn't quite over yet. The men won 61-41 over JMU and have a huge game with No. 14 VCU at home Tuesday. Sometime before then, I will do a game-by-game schedule prediction like I've done the last three years. For now, though, I'm taking a break on hoops and doing an abbreviated college picks post. I went 5-2 last Saturday and 1-1 on Thursday and now sit at 54-16 on the season.

No. 2 Florida State at Wake Forest, Noon ABC
Is there a team happier that Oregon lost to Stanford than FSU? Probably not. Win out, and the Seminoles might lock up a spot in the national title game with the Ducks now tossed from the ranks of the unbeaten. Wake Forest has made strides since the beginning of the season, but I don't see the 'Noles stumbling in Winston-Salem.
Florida State 45, Wake Forest 14

BYU at No. 24 Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
BYU holds the title of "Only FBS Team That Has Lost to Virginia This Season." How have they done since that Aug. 31 game at Scott Stadium? Quite well. The Cougars are 6-2 overall and their only other loss is to Utah. They've played a fairly tough schedule, including the likes of Boise State, Georgia Tech, Texas, and Houston. I think they are due another loss, though, at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers have lost to only Ohio State by seven and Arizona State in the desert during a shootout by two that had a weird and controversial ending.
Wisconsin 31, BYU 21

N.C. State at Duke, 4 p.m. ESPNU
Fear the Blue Devils. In football. Words that I never thought I would utter. Two weeks after upsetting Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, the 6-2 and bowl-eligible-for-the-second-year-in-a-row Blue Devils get a struggling N.C. State team that is winless in the ACC in Durham. Don't look now but the Blue Devils could be closing in on an eight-win regular season.
Duke 24, N.C. State 14

Virginia Tech at No. 11 Miami, 7 p.m. ESPN
Last stand for the Hokies. A loss just about kills their chances of winning the Coastal Division and would mean a third loss in a row. Miami is trying to bounce back after getting trounced by FSU last weekend.
Miami 24, Virginia Tech 17

No. 13 LSU at No. 1 Alabama, 8 p.m. CBS
Alabama has been dominant since winning a shootout 49-42 over Texas A&M in September. How dominant? Try outscoring their six opponents since then by an average 41-4.3 on for size. Wow. LSU is a formidable opponent at 7-2 but has a pair of three-point losses to Ole Miss and Georgia. The Crimson Tide has had two weeks to prepare and should mostly cruise at home.
Alabama 35, LSU 17

Virginia at North Carolina, 12:30 p.m. NBC29 (ACC Network)
Note (edit 11:45 a.m.): Should put this note in there. I've been aware for a few days now UNC will be without starting QB Bryn Renner but I did forget to mention it originally. He is having season-ending shoulder surgery. Sophomore Marquise Williams will start in his place. I just don't think it will matter, though. Virginia let Duke's Anthony Boone have a terrific game last year as a backup starting for Sean Renfree. Plus, Williams has been playing this season and hasn't done too badly. He's 40 of 66 for 537 yards, six TDs, and three INTs. He is also a solid running threat that has rushed for 201 yards and a touchdown this season. I don't think him playing will have a huge impact on the game. Virginia might have a slightly easier time in pass coverage with him playing instead of Renner, but that's it.

The South's Oldest Rivalry gets reignited Saturday in Chapel Hill for a 118th meeting. UNC won last year's edition in Charlottesville, 37-13, and has won three straight in the series. Overall, UNC leads the rivalry 59-54-4. Virginia last won in Chapel Hill in 2009 by a 16-3 score, also UVa's last win in the series.

I've mostly switched to basketball mode by now so I won't say too much here. UNC should be a team that Virginia can contend with. Every FBS team that Virginia has played this season is .500 or better. The Cavs have absolutely had a brutal schedule. But they've done themselves no favors. The Tar Heels are 3-5 and
have had a down year after it was expected they would contend for an ACC championship, Their passing offense has been good but their rushing offense has faltered after losing Giovani Bernard to the NFL. Their defense has also been porous. I still just don't trust Virginia to come up with a win. I've thought for the last few weeks that the 'Hoos would grab another win somewhere, I just don't know where and I'm not really comfortable picking them in a game until they snap their losing streak, which now stands at six games. Virginia will probably compete in this game and might even hold a halftime lead. North Carolina's defense is weak enough where Virginia should be able to put up some points. But I just don't trust the team to shake the mistakes that has plagued it the past two seasons: penalties, dropped passes, bad coaching decisions, etc. I think in the end a few mistakes here and there as the game goes on will be the difference. North Carolina will get its fourth win of the season with winnable games left against Pitt, ODU, and Duke left. Should UNC win over UVa, it will need to win two of those last three to become bowl eligible.
North Carolina 34, Virginia 27

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