Upcoming games:
Liberty at Virginia, 4 p.m. Saturday ESPN3.com
Hampton at Virginia, 7 p.m. Tuesday ESPN3.com
The Cavaliers have won two straight games since losing to VCU in a close game in Charlottesville. Virginia defeated Davidson in Charlotte, 70-57, last Saturday. On Tuesday, the Wahoos beat Navy, 67-42. UVa has two more winnable games coming up against Liberty and Hampton before traveling to Corpus Christi, Texas, for the Corpus Christi Challenge. In that, the Cavs will face SMU and either Texas A&M or Missouri State.
On Thursday night, Florida State pounded VCU, 85-67. Certainly, that makes Virginia's loss to VCU seem worse but I would not get overly concerned about it. The Seminoles have a very tall and athletic team, moreso than UVa. They did a better job of breaking the Rams' vaunted press. UVa had that game won and better shooting and a more aggressive approach down the stretch would have closed it out. I think coach Tony Bennett has learned about his team in the past two games since VCU, too. He took some heat from fans for not playing Mike Tobey more against the Rams despite the fact the sophomore had five points and nine rebounds in just 11 minutes of action. Tobey played much more against Davidson and then started vs. Navy. Bennett does a good job of making adjustments and I think the Cavaliers are playing better so far since VCU despite a drop in the level of competition. Also, FSU is probably underrated. The media picked it just ninth in the ACC. Leonard Hamilton is a very good coach, however, and could certainly have the Seminoles end up much better in the conference than expected.
The major issue right now for Virginia is shooting. Despite making 47.3 percent of their field goals (7th in the ACC), the Cavaliers are only making 23.1 percent of their 3-point shots (last in the ACC). Against VCU, UVa made just one 3. One more would have tied the game and two more 3s would have won it for the 'Hoos. As for free throw shooting, Virginia sits at 58.3 percent, second to last in the conference. It made 19 of 33 vs. VCU. A few more would have won the game.
Luckily, the next two opponents should give Virginia some more practice shooting the ball as the Flames and Pirates probably don't represent serious challenges for the Cavaliers. Once Virginia gets set to play SMU in Texas (the Mustangs are coached by legend Larry Brown), UVa needs to be shooting better.
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College Football Picks
I went just 3-5 last Saturday and am now 62-22 on the season.
Duke at Wake Forest, Noon ESPN2
The next sentence is probably not what anyone would have expected at the beginning of this season: If Duke wins against Wake Forest and against UNC next week, the Blue Devils win the ACC Coastal Division outright and will play FSU in the league title game. Crazy. Duke is the only team in the division right now with two losses -- every other team has at least three losses. If the Blue Devils lose both these games, they would obviously need lots of things to happen to win the division. If they lose one, there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios I can't begin to understand that could involve the Devils, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech, and maybe North Carolina (yep, only division team not in that discussion -- Virginia). So basically, Duke should just win out to get to 10-2, 6-2, and leave no doubt. I think they will at least clear this first hurdle of the Demon Deacons. At UNC next week facing the hot Tar Heels could be another issue but I think Duke will beat Wake, a team that has scored three points combined the past two weeks while getting outscored by FSU and Syracuse 72-3.
Duke 34, Wake Forest 27
Pittsburgh at Syracuse, 12:30 p.m. ESPN3.com (local stations if you around Pittsburgh and Syracuse)
Winner gets sixth win and bowl eligibility. Both teams have been good and bad this year. How to handicap such a matchup? Syracuse can run the ball but can't pass. Pittsburgh can pass the ball but not run. Pittsburgh can slow the pass but isn't great against the run, and, you guessed it, Syracuse can slow the run but isn't great against the pass. So there should be some points scored. Syracuse has three losses at home, far from perfect. Pittsburgh does have a road win at Duke, which looks more impressive now. Both squads have bad losses -- the Panthers fell at Navy (which is now 7-4 but was 3-3 before playing Pitt) while the Orange lost at home to Penn State, which is playing in a weakened Big Ten and is just 6-4 on the season. Pittsburgh does have a couple things 'Cuse doesn't have: A marquee win. Pitt beat Notre Dame at home and the Panthers also have some close losses (seven points to UNC, three to Navy, 10 to Virginia Tech; the Orange has a six-point loss to Penn State but no other losses closer than 20 points. Pitt also had a slightly better out-of-conference schedule in my opinion: New Mexico, Old Dominion, Navy, and Notre Dame compared to Penn State, Northwestern, Tulane, and Wagner for Syracuse. I like Pittsburgh in this one but it is honestly a coin flip.
Pittsburgh 31, Syracuse 30
No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 12 LSU, 3:30 p.m. CBS
LSU has the better win this year of these two teams, handing Auburn its only loss so far. A&M has eight wins but the best thing it has done is hang 42 on Alabama in a 49-42 loss. The Aggies' list of victims isn't impressive: Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, UTEP, Mississippi State. I like the Tigers at home.
LSU 33, Texas A&M 30
No. 19 Wisconsin at No. 25 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
For my friend Ryan Pronk, who is from Minnesota and loves Golden Gopher football. He calls their run this year nothing short of a miracle. He thinks Minnesota has a chance in this one. Minnesota is playing some inspired football this year, pushed along by the inspiration of its coach, Jerry Kill, who has taken a spot in the booth because of his epileptic episodes this season. The Gophers used an easy non-conference schedule to go 4-0 and that has translated into success in the Big Ten. Iowa and Michigan are their only losses. Wisconsin's two losses are to Ohio State and Arizona State. The Badgers should probably win this game, but the Gophers pull out a stunner at home and win Paul Bunyan's Axe!
Minnesota 30, Wisconsin 28
No. 17 Arizona State at No. 14 UCLA, 7 p.m. FOX
This game is for the lead in the Pac-12 South. If ASU wins, it wins the division. If UCLA wins, it could come down to its game against USC next week (which needs to beat Colorado on Saturday to stay in the conversation). Should be an exciting game with a good number of points scored. I like the Bruins at home.
UCLA 38, Arizona State 35
No. 4 Baylor at No. 10 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ABC
Baylor is finally getting tested now. Honestly though, Virginia maybe would have four wins with the Bears' schedule this season (possible wins: Wofford, Buffalo, UL Monroe, Iowa State, Kansas). The last couple weeks, Baylor has faced Oklahoma and Texas Tech, more favorable opponents. The road is tough this week, too, in Stillwater. Next week, Baylor travels to face TCU and then it finishes up at home vs. Texas. No one has been able to stop the Bears' offense. They have scored an incredible 61.2 points per game. Their defense has also been stout, holding opponents to 17.4 points per game (7th in the nation). Baylor has been dominated at OSU recently but I think it tops the Cowboys this year in a wild shootout.
Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 39
Virginia at Miami, Noon ESPNU
Despite its many woes, UVa has a decent shot in its final two games, IF the Wahoos play decent, and not like in their past two losses to Clemson (59-10) and UNC (45-14). Miami, despite bolting out to a 7-0 record, has lost three straight games and has been close to losing five straight (last two wins were 27-23 over UNC and 24-21 over Wake). Miami has never had a good home crowd -- even in good years, fans just don't show up to games and seeing the Wahoos won't fire up many people to come out. The Hurricanes' best offensive and special teams weapon -- Duke Johnson -- is out with an injury. Stephen Morris has been inconsistent at QB. The defense has gotten shredded the past three weeks for 40-plus points against Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. You would hope then that UVa could put up at least half that many. I doubt though that the Cavalier defense can hold the Hurricanes below 20 points. The UVa defense has not had a decent outing since holding Maryland to 27 points and has not had a great game since dominating Pittsburgh on Sept. 28 and yielding just 14 points (even though the 'Hoos still lost). Now, the defense is probably getting back two key players -- tackle Brent Urban and cornerback Maurice Canady. That should help that side of the ball. I still just don't have confidence in this staff to put the players in position to succeed. I think this game will probably be closer than lots of people think, but in the end, Virginia will just shoot itself one too many times in the foot, like it has all year, whether it be a key penalty, a key turnover, or another head-scratching decision by coach Mike London or someone on the staff. London is 3-0 against Miami, but I think that streak ends in 2013.
Miami 27, Virginia 21
Liberty at Virginia, 4 p.m. Saturday ESPN3.com
Hampton at Virginia, 7 p.m. Tuesday ESPN3.com
The Cavaliers have won two straight games since losing to VCU in a close game in Charlottesville. Virginia defeated Davidson in Charlotte, 70-57, last Saturday. On Tuesday, the Wahoos beat Navy, 67-42. UVa has two more winnable games coming up against Liberty and Hampton before traveling to Corpus Christi, Texas, for the Corpus Christi Challenge. In that, the Cavs will face SMU and either Texas A&M or Missouri State.
On Thursday night, Florida State pounded VCU, 85-67. Certainly, that makes Virginia's loss to VCU seem worse but I would not get overly concerned about it. The Seminoles have a very tall and athletic team, moreso than UVa. They did a better job of breaking the Rams' vaunted press. UVa had that game won and better shooting and a more aggressive approach down the stretch would have closed it out. I think coach Tony Bennett has learned about his team in the past two games since VCU, too. He took some heat from fans for not playing Mike Tobey more against the Rams despite the fact the sophomore had five points and nine rebounds in just 11 minutes of action. Tobey played much more against Davidson and then started vs. Navy. Bennett does a good job of making adjustments and I think the Cavaliers are playing better so far since VCU despite a drop in the level of competition. Also, FSU is probably underrated. The media picked it just ninth in the ACC. Leonard Hamilton is a very good coach, however, and could certainly have the Seminoles end up much better in the conference than expected.
The major issue right now for Virginia is shooting. Despite making 47.3 percent of their field goals (7th in the ACC), the Cavaliers are only making 23.1 percent of their 3-point shots (last in the ACC). Against VCU, UVa made just one 3. One more would have tied the game and two more 3s would have won it for the 'Hoos. As for free throw shooting, Virginia sits at 58.3 percent, second to last in the conference. It made 19 of 33 vs. VCU. A few more would have won the game.
Luckily, the next two opponents should give Virginia some more practice shooting the ball as the Flames and Pirates probably don't represent serious challenges for the Cavaliers. Once Virginia gets set to play SMU in Texas (the Mustangs are coached by legend Larry Brown), UVa needs to be shooting better.
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College Football Picks
I went just 3-5 last Saturday and am now 62-22 on the season.
Duke at Wake Forest, Noon ESPN2
The next sentence is probably not what anyone would have expected at the beginning of this season: If Duke wins against Wake Forest and against UNC next week, the Blue Devils win the ACC Coastal Division outright and will play FSU in the league title game. Crazy. Duke is the only team in the division right now with two losses -- every other team has at least three losses. If the Blue Devils lose both these games, they would obviously need lots of things to happen to win the division. If they lose one, there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios I can't begin to understand that could involve the Devils, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech, and maybe North Carolina (yep, only division team not in that discussion -- Virginia). So basically, Duke should just win out to get to 10-2, 6-2, and leave no doubt. I think they will at least clear this first hurdle of the Demon Deacons. At UNC next week facing the hot Tar Heels could be another issue but I think Duke will beat Wake, a team that has scored three points combined the past two weeks while getting outscored by FSU and Syracuse 72-3.
Duke 34, Wake Forest 27
Pittsburgh at Syracuse, 12:30 p.m. ESPN3.com (local stations if you around Pittsburgh and Syracuse)
Winner gets sixth win and bowl eligibility. Both teams have been good and bad this year. How to handicap such a matchup? Syracuse can run the ball but can't pass. Pittsburgh can pass the ball but not run. Pittsburgh can slow the pass but isn't great against the run, and, you guessed it, Syracuse can slow the run but isn't great against the pass. So there should be some points scored. Syracuse has three losses at home, far from perfect. Pittsburgh does have a road win at Duke, which looks more impressive now. Both squads have bad losses -- the Panthers fell at Navy (which is now 7-4 but was 3-3 before playing Pitt) while the Orange lost at home to Penn State, which is playing in a weakened Big Ten and is just 6-4 on the season. Pittsburgh does have a couple things 'Cuse doesn't have: A marquee win. Pitt beat Notre Dame at home and the Panthers also have some close losses (seven points to UNC, three to Navy, 10 to Virginia Tech; the Orange has a six-point loss to Penn State but no other losses closer than 20 points. Pitt also had a slightly better out-of-conference schedule in my opinion: New Mexico, Old Dominion, Navy, and Notre Dame compared to Penn State, Northwestern, Tulane, and Wagner for Syracuse. I like Pittsburgh in this one but it is honestly a coin flip.
Pittsburgh 31, Syracuse 30
No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 12 LSU, 3:30 p.m. CBS
LSU has the better win this year of these two teams, handing Auburn its only loss so far. A&M has eight wins but the best thing it has done is hang 42 on Alabama in a 49-42 loss. The Aggies' list of victims isn't impressive: Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, UTEP, Mississippi State. I like the Tigers at home.
LSU 33, Texas A&M 30
No. 19 Wisconsin at No. 25 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
For my friend Ryan Pronk, who is from Minnesota and loves Golden Gopher football. He calls their run this year nothing short of a miracle. He thinks Minnesota has a chance in this one. Minnesota is playing some inspired football this year, pushed along by the inspiration of its coach, Jerry Kill, who has taken a spot in the booth because of his epileptic episodes this season. The Gophers used an easy non-conference schedule to go 4-0 and that has translated into success in the Big Ten. Iowa and Michigan are their only losses. Wisconsin's two losses are to Ohio State and Arizona State. The Badgers should probably win this game, but the Gophers pull out a stunner at home and win Paul Bunyan's Axe!
Minnesota 30, Wisconsin 28
No. 17 Arizona State at No. 14 UCLA, 7 p.m. FOX
This game is for the lead in the Pac-12 South. If ASU wins, it wins the division. If UCLA wins, it could come down to its game against USC next week (which needs to beat Colorado on Saturday to stay in the conversation). Should be an exciting game with a good number of points scored. I like the Bruins at home.
UCLA 38, Arizona State 35
No. 4 Baylor at No. 10 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ABC
Baylor is finally getting tested now. Honestly though, Virginia maybe would have four wins with the Bears' schedule this season (possible wins: Wofford, Buffalo, UL Monroe, Iowa State, Kansas). The last couple weeks, Baylor has faced Oklahoma and Texas Tech, more favorable opponents. The road is tough this week, too, in Stillwater. Next week, Baylor travels to face TCU and then it finishes up at home vs. Texas. No one has been able to stop the Bears' offense. They have scored an incredible 61.2 points per game. Their defense has also been stout, holding opponents to 17.4 points per game (7th in the nation). Baylor has been dominated at OSU recently but I think it tops the Cowboys this year in a wild shootout.
Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 39
Virginia at Miami, Noon ESPNU
Despite its many woes, UVa has a decent shot in its final two games, IF the Wahoos play decent, and not like in their past two losses to Clemson (59-10) and UNC (45-14). Miami, despite bolting out to a 7-0 record, has lost three straight games and has been close to losing five straight (last two wins were 27-23 over UNC and 24-21 over Wake). Miami has never had a good home crowd -- even in good years, fans just don't show up to games and seeing the Wahoos won't fire up many people to come out. The Hurricanes' best offensive and special teams weapon -- Duke Johnson -- is out with an injury. Stephen Morris has been inconsistent at QB. The defense has gotten shredded the past three weeks for 40-plus points against Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Duke. You would hope then that UVa could put up at least half that many. I doubt though that the Cavalier defense can hold the Hurricanes below 20 points. The UVa defense has not had a decent outing since holding Maryland to 27 points and has not had a great game since dominating Pittsburgh on Sept. 28 and yielding just 14 points (even though the 'Hoos still lost). Now, the defense is probably getting back two key players -- tackle Brent Urban and cornerback Maurice Canady. That should help that side of the ball. I still just don't have confidence in this staff to put the players in position to succeed. I think this game will probably be closer than lots of people think, but in the end, Virginia will just shoot itself one too many times in the foot, like it has all year, whether it be a key penalty, a key turnover, or another head-scratching decision by coach Mike London or someone on the staff. London is 3-0 against Miami, but I think that streak ends in 2013.Miami 27, Virginia 21
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