College football picks
Last week, I went 4-3 and am now 70-28 on the season. This week, conference championships and BCS bids are on the line, with some rivalry games thrown in to finish up the regular season (although Army-Navy is next Saturday). Already Friday, Bowling Green topped undefeated Northern Illinois in the MAC championship, knocking the Huskies out of a BCS game.
No. 17 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oklahoma State, "Bedlam," Noon ABC
Each team has had two weeks to get ready for this game. Oklahoma State's last time out included a huge win over previously undefeated Baylor, 49-17. Oklahoma beat Kansas State, 31-21. The Cowboys' only loss this season was to a bad West Virginia team in late September, but they've come a long way since then. The Sooners were blown out by Baylor and also lost to Texas. Don't really have a reason not to go with the Cowboys at home in this one.
Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 35
Marshall at Rice, Conference USA Championship, Noon ESPN
Marshall won the East Division while Rice won the West Division, and both enter with 9-3, 7-1 records. The game is at Rice because it has a higher BCS plus human poll ranking. This would be the first CUSA championship for either team. Both teams lost their one conference game to 8-4 squads (North Teas for Rice and Middle Tennessee for Marshall). Rice had a harder non-conference schedule, playing Texas A&M, Kansas, Houston, and New Mexico State. The Owls led A&M after the first quarter and it was just 28-21 Aggies at the half. The Thundering Herd faced Miami (Ohio), Gardner-Webb, Ohio, and Virginia Tech in the non-conference. For the Owls, New Mexico State is very bad and Kansas isn't much better. But they did not face an FCS squad like the Herd did (G-W) and Miami (Ohio) is one of only two winless teams in all of FBS this year (Georgia State was the other). Houston and Ohio are pretty equal but then I would say A&M is tougher than Virginia Tech. Marshall lost to the Hokies in three overtimes. Still, I think Rice has had the more challenging schedule. The Owls are at home, which should also help.
Rice 31, Marshall 27
No. 25 Texas at No. 9 Baylor, 3:30 p.m. FOX
Assuming Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, this game loses some of its luster. OSU, if it wins, will have the same Big 12 conference record as Baylor if Baylor beats Texas, but OSU beat Baylor head-to-head so Ok. State would be BCS bound. If the Cowboys stumble, however, the winner of this game is headed to a BCS bowl. Texas is just 8-3 compared to Baylor's 10-1, but they each have just one Big 12 loss. I think Ok. State will win so I don't think it will matter as much, but I like the Bears over the Longhorns in this one, even though the Bears are stumbling a bit down the stretch (followed up blowout loss to Oklahoma State with a tight game against a not-so-good TCU last week). Being at home will give Baylor an edge.
Baylor 33, Texas 30
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 3 Auburn in Atlanta, SEC Championship, 4 p.m. CBS
National title implications are obviously on the line in the SEC title game, a battle of Tigers. These teams really turned things around and the coaches deserve credit -- Gary Pinkel for Missouri (in his 13th year) a
nd Gus Malzahn for Auburn (first year, although he was the offensive coordinator for its national title run under Cam Newton three years ago). Last year, these teams won a combined two SEC games. If Auburn wins, immense pressure will be on Ohio State to win the Big Ten title game (which starts after 8 p.m.) and go to the BCS title game because if it doesn't, Auburn will be the team to face Florida State (assuming the 'Noles take care of Duke in the ACC championship). If Missouri wins and Ohio State loses, then FSU would likely face Missouri -- if it is given enough credit by the
computers and human voters. If it doesn't, sneaky Alabama, which doesn't have to play Saturday, will end up in the BCS championship. Auburn is coming off an incredible emotional high after beating Alabama on the last play of the game (a missed field goal return) last weekend. Can they get up for yet another big game? Missouri has been sneaky good this year and would maybe be undefeated if not for an injury to its starting quarterback, James Franklin. He was out when Missouri lost its only game of the season to South Carolina, 27-24 in double overtime. Auburn rushes the ball very well and does not put an emphasis on passing. Missouri has a more balanced attack but does not rush the ball as well as Auburn. The key will be defense and Missouri has proven to have a better one than Auburn. Missouri's rush defense is ranked 14th in the country -- Auburn's, 56th. If Auburn can get anything going in the air, it could have some success, because Missouri's pass defense is ranked 110th. Auburn's pass defense is barely better, ranked 100th. I think the winner will be which ever team can take advantage of its opponent's porous pass defense. I think Missouri is more equipped to do that.
Missouri 38, Auburn 34
No. 7 Stanford at No. 11 Arizona State, Pac-12 Championship, 7:45 p.m. ESPN
ASU is the home team because it only has one conference loss, compared to Stanford which has two. Ironically, ASU's loss was to Stanford, 42-28, way back in mid-September, and the game was at Stanford. ASU also lost to Notre Dame, 37-34, in Arlington, Texas, on Oct. 5. Since then, the Sun Devils have ripped off seven straight wins. Stanford's two losses this year were to Utah and USC. In a rematch, this time in Tempe, I'm giving ASU the edge.
Arizona State 27, Stanford 24
No. 20 Duke vs. No. 1 Florida State in Charlotte, ACC Championship, 8 p.m. ABC
This is the end of Duke's run, right? Right?? I picked against the Blue Devils last week vs. UNC, but they pulled it out to win the ACC's Coastal Division. They've won an incredible eight games in a row. The Seminoles have yet to lose this year and just need to sweep the Devils aside to assure themselves of a place in the ACC title game. FSU already picked up one victory this week when star freshman QB Jameis Winston was not charged with anything following a sexual assault investigation from an incident last December. I don't expect that investigation and the talk surrounding it to be much of a distraction for the 'Noles, if any. On the field, I think Florida State creates too many matchup problems for Duke and is just further along as a program than the Blue Devils are. I'm not trying to discount anything Duke has done this year, however. The job coach David Cutcliffe has done with this team, slowing building it from the ashes six years ago (his first year was 2008) has been remarkable. Most people think Duke is going to get hammered in this one and they might be right, but I like to think Duke can at least make it interesting for a quarter, if not the first half.
Florida State 45, Duke 21
No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Indianapolis, Big Ten Championship, 8:17 p.m. FOX
Offense vs. Defense. That's what a lot of this game boils down to. The Buckeyes have an outstanding rushing offense (ranked second in the country) and the Spartans have an outstanding rushing defense (ranked first in the country). Neither team has done it against great competition: a list of non-conference foes for both tams includes Western Michigan, Youngstown State, South Florida, Notre Dame, Cal, Buffalo, San Diego State, and Florida A&M. Sheesh. MSU's only loss of the year came against Notre Dame, 17-13, and OSU is unbeaten. It kinda comes down to my gut for this game and for some reason, I just want to pick the Spartans to pull the upset off. I don't know if that is right choice, but I don't want THE Ohio State University in the BCS title game and MSU certainly has a fighter's chance. I think one of the keys will be what MSU's offense can do against OSU's defense. MSU's offense has not been great this year but it has slowly improved and the Buckeyes have given up a lot of points at times this year to some bad teams (34 to Cal, 35 to Illinois, 41 to a Michigan team that has been very inconsistent).
Michigan State 30, Ohio State 28
Utah State at No. 23 Fresno State, Mountain West Championship, 10 p.m. CBS
Fresno State blew a chance at a BCS bid last week with a 62-52 loss to San Jose State, the Bulldogs' only loss of the season. I think they will be eager to get things back in order against the Aggies, a team that has four losses this season. Fresno State is undefeated at home.
Fresno State 38, Utah State 24
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Virginia Soccer
Both the men's and women's soccer programs for UVa have had great seasons. The women were undefeated until an ACC tournament semifinal loss to Virginia Tech. They then ripped off four straight wins in the NCAA tournament but fell Friday night in the semifinals to UCLA in penalty kicks after a 1-1 tie, ending their dream season. Technically, the Cavs finished their season 24-1-1, although the one tie is actually the penalty kick loss to UCLA. The men are a round behind and beat Connecticut on Friday night, 2-1, in Charlottesville in the NCAA tournament quarterfinals. They will face either Maryland or California in the semifinals next weekend in Philadelphia. The Terps and Golden Bears square off Saturday afternoon. UVa has faced the Terrapins twice this season, drawing with them 3-3 in Charlottesville during the regular season and losing 1-0 to them in the ACC tournament championship. The men's record is 13-5-5.
My favorite Virginia sports teams are always going to be football and men's basketball with baseball close behind but I always enjoy it when any Wahoo team experiences success.
Last week, I went 4-3 and am now 70-28 on the season. This week, conference championships and BCS bids are on the line, with some rivalry games thrown in to finish up the regular season (although Army-Navy is next Saturday). Already Friday, Bowling Green topped undefeated Northern Illinois in the MAC championship, knocking the Huskies out of a BCS game.
No. 17 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oklahoma State, "Bedlam," Noon ABC
Each team has had two weeks to get ready for this game. Oklahoma State's last time out included a huge win over previously undefeated Baylor, 49-17. Oklahoma beat Kansas State, 31-21. The Cowboys' only loss this season was to a bad West Virginia team in late September, but they've come a long way since then. The Sooners were blown out by Baylor and also lost to Texas. Don't really have a reason not to go with the Cowboys at home in this one.Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 35
Marshall at Rice, Conference USA Championship, Noon ESPN
Marshall won the East Division while Rice won the West Division, and both enter with 9-3, 7-1 records. The game is at Rice because it has a higher BCS plus human poll ranking. This would be the first CUSA championship for either team. Both teams lost their one conference game to 8-4 squads (North Teas for Rice and Middle Tennessee for Marshall). Rice had a harder non-conference schedule, playing Texas A&M, Kansas, Houston, and New Mexico State. The Owls led A&M after the first quarter and it was just 28-21 Aggies at the half. The Thundering Herd faced Miami (Ohio), Gardner-Webb, Ohio, and Virginia Tech in the non-conference. For the Owls, New Mexico State is very bad and Kansas isn't much better. But they did not face an FCS squad like the Herd did (G-W) and Miami (Ohio) is one of only two winless teams in all of FBS this year (Georgia State was the other). Houston and Ohio are pretty equal but then I would say A&M is tougher than Virginia Tech. Marshall lost to the Hokies in three overtimes. Still, I think Rice has had the more challenging schedule. The Owls are at home, which should also help.
Rice 31, Marshall 27
No. 25 Texas at No. 9 Baylor, 3:30 p.m. FOX
Assuming Oklahoma State wins Bedlam, this game loses some of its luster. OSU, if it wins, will have the same Big 12 conference record as Baylor if Baylor beats Texas, but OSU beat Baylor head-to-head so Ok. State would be BCS bound. If the Cowboys stumble, however, the winner of this game is headed to a BCS bowl. Texas is just 8-3 compared to Baylor's 10-1, but they each have just one Big 12 loss. I think Ok. State will win so I don't think it will matter as much, but I like the Bears over the Longhorns in this one, even though the Bears are stumbling a bit down the stretch (followed up blowout loss to Oklahoma State with a tight game against a not-so-good TCU last week). Being at home will give Baylor an edge.
Baylor 33, Texas 30
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 3 Auburn in Atlanta, SEC Championship, 4 p.m. CBS
National title implications are obviously on the line in the SEC title game, a battle of Tigers. These teams really turned things around and the coaches deserve credit -- Gary Pinkel for Missouri (in his 13th year) a
nd Gus Malzahn for Auburn (first year, although he was the offensive coordinator for its national title run under Cam Newton three years ago). Last year, these teams won a combined two SEC games. If Auburn wins, immense pressure will be on Ohio State to win the Big Ten title game (which starts after 8 p.m.) and go to the BCS title game because if it doesn't, Auburn will be the team to face Florida State (assuming the 'Noles take care of Duke in the ACC championship). If Missouri wins and Ohio State loses, then FSU would likely face Missouri -- if it is given enough credit by thecomputers and human voters. If it doesn't, sneaky Alabama, which doesn't have to play Saturday, will end up in the BCS championship. Auburn is coming off an incredible emotional high after beating Alabama on the last play of the game (a missed field goal return) last weekend. Can they get up for yet another big game? Missouri has been sneaky good this year and would maybe be undefeated if not for an injury to its starting quarterback, James Franklin. He was out when Missouri lost its only game of the season to South Carolina, 27-24 in double overtime. Auburn rushes the ball very well and does not put an emphasis on passing. Missouri has a more balanced attack but does not rush the ball as well as Auburn. The key will be defense and Missouri has proven to have a better one than Auburn. Missouri's rush defense is ranked 14th in the country -- Auburn's, 56th. If Auburn can get anything going in the air, it could have some success, because Missouri's pass defense is ranked 110th. Auburn's pass defense is barely better, ranked 100th. I think the winner will be which ever team can take advantage of its opponent's porous pass defense. I think Missouri is more equipped to do that.
Missouri 38, Auburn 34
No. 7 Stanford at No. 11 Arizona State, Pac-12 Championship, 7:45 p.m. ESPN
ASU is the home team because it only has one conference loss, compared to Stanford which has two. Ironically, ASU's loss was to Stanford, 42-28, way back in mid-September, and the game was at Stanford. ASU also lost to Notre Dame, 37-34, in Arlington, Texas, on Oct. 5. Since then, the Sun Devils have ripped off seven straight wins. Stanford's two losses this year were to Utah and USC. In a rematch, this time in Tempe, I'm giving ASU the edge.
Arizona State 27, Stanford 24
No. 20 Duke vs. No. 1 Florida State in Charlotte, ACC Championship, 8 p.m. ABC
This is the end of Duke's run, right? Right?? I picked against the Blue Devils last week vs. UNC, but they pulled it out to win the ACC's Coastal Division. They've won an incredible eight games in a row. The Seminoles have yet to lose this year and just need to sweep the Devils aside to assure themselves of a place in the ACC title game. FSU already picked up one victory this week when star freshman QB Jameis Winston was not charged with anything following a sexual assault investigation from an incident last December. I don't expect that investigation and the talk surrounding it to be much of a distraction for the 'Noles, if any. On the field, I think Florida State creates too many matchup problems for Duke and is just further along as a program than the Blue Devils are. I'm not trying to discount anything Duke has done this year, however. The job coach David Cutcliffe has done with this team, slowing building it from the ashes six years ago (his first year was 2008) has been remarkable. Most people think Duke is going to get hammered in this one and they might be right, but I like to think Duke can at least make it interesting for a quarter, if not the first half.Florida State 45, Duke 21
No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Indianapolis, Big Ten Championship, 8:17 p.m. FOX
Offense vs. Defense. That's what a lot of this game boils down to. The Buckeyes have an outstanding rushing offense (ranked second in the country) and the Spartans have an outstanding rushing defense (ranked first in the country). Neither team has done it against great competition: a list of non-conference foes for both tams includes Western Michigan, Youngstown State, South Florida, Notre Dame, Cal, Buffalo, San Diego State, and Florida A&M. Sheesh. MSU's only loss of the year came against Notre Dame, 17-13, and OSU is unbeaten. It kinda comes down to my gut for this game and for some reason, I just want to pick the Spartans to pull the upset off. I don't know if that is right choice, but I don't want THE Ohio State University in the BCS title game and MSU certainly has a fighter's chance. I think one of the keys will be what MSU's offense can do against OSU's defense. MSU's offense has not been great this year but it has slowly improved and the Buckeyes have given up a lot of points at times this year to some bad teams (34 to Cal, 35 to Illinois, 41 to a Michigan team that has been very inconsistent).
Michigan State 30, Ohio State 28
Utah State at No. 23 Fresno State, Mountain West Championship, 10 p.m. CBS
Fresno State blew a chance at a BCS bid last week with a 62-52 loss to San Jose State, the Bulldogs' only loss of the season. I think they will be eager to get things back in order against the Aggies, a team that has four losses this season. Fresno State is undefeated at home.
Fresno State 38, Utah State 24
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Virginia Soccer
Both the men's and women's soccer programs for UVa have had great seasons. The women were undefeated until an ACC tournament semifinal loss to Virginia Tech. They then ripped off four straight wins in the NCAA tournament but fell Friday night in the semifinals to UCLA in penalty kicks after a 1-1 tie, ending their dream season. Technically, the Cavs finished their season 24-1-1, although the one tie is actually the penalty kick loss to UCLA. The men are a round behind and beat Connecticut on Friday night, 2-1, in Charlottesville in the NCAA tournament quarterfinals. They will face either Maryland or California in the semifinals next weekend in Philadelphia. The Terps and Golden Bears square off Saturday afternoon. UVa has faced the Terrapins twice this season, drawing with them 3-3 in Charlottesville during the regular season and losing 1-0 to them in the ACC tournament championship. The men's record is 13-5-5.
My favorite Virginia sports teams are always going to be football and men's basketball with baseball close behind but I always enjoy it when any Wahoo team experiences success.
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