Important games abound for Week 16 in the NFL. Last week, I went just 1-4 in picks, pulling closer to just a .500 mark for the season at 38-37.
Dolphins at Bills, 1 p.m. CBS
The Dolphins must win and hope the Ravens lose a game or the Patriots lose out. In scenario one, Miami would pick up a wild card. In scenario two, it would actually win the AFC East. Either way, the Dolphins needs to win this game at Buffalo. Bills QB E.J. Manuel is hurt again and Thaddeus Lewis will start under center, and he's played well in four starts this season. He started Buffalo's Week 7 23-21 win at Miami but did not play that well.
Dolphins 24, Bills 21
Saints at Panthers, 1 p.m. FOX
The Saints beat the Panthers just two weeks ago in New Orleans, but the Saints are a completely different team out of their dome. Carolina lost that game 31-13 and I expect this game to be much closer and might even go the Panthers' way.
Panthers 20, Saints 19
Steelers at Packers, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Green Bay stayed in the playoff picture with a big comeback victory over Dallas last week. Pittsburgh stayed in it with a nice, 30-20 win over Cincinnati. The Packers played awfully in the first half vs. the Cowboys and I don't think the Steelers will give up as many yards as the Cowboys through the air. They will look at what the Pack did to the 'Boys in the second half and adjust their defense accordingly. Should be a good game pitting a couple desperate teams. If Green Bay can win, it would just need to beat the Bears next week to win the NFC North, regardless of what the Bears do against the Eagles on Sunday night.
Steelers 23, Packers 21
Patriots at Ravens, 4:25 p.m. CBS
Both of these teams are in unique positions -- if New England wins out, it gets the AFC's No. 1 seed. If it loses out, there is a scenario where the Pats would miss the playoffs. The Ravens could also miss the playoffs, but could get the No. 2 seed by winning out. New England usually seems to have trouble at Baltimore and has struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 3-2 in their past five games and their wins were by three, three, and one points, the last two wins coming over Houston and Cleveland.
Ravens 23, Patriots 20
Bears at Eagles, 8:30 p.m. NBC
Both of these teams are in similar positions. If the Cowboys lose to the Redskins, the Eagles just need to beat the Bears and they win the NFC East. If the Packers lose to the Steelers, the Bears just need to win and they win the NFC North. Otherwise, whichever team loses will have big games Week 17 vs. those rivals for the division crown (unless the Lions win out, then things get complicated in the North). The Bears cannot stop the run, and the Eagles have the best rushing offense in the league. Bears QB Jay Cutler is going to have his work cut out trying to keep up with Philly's scoring, probably. I like the Eagles in this one.
Eagles 41, Bears 35
Falcons at 49ers, 8:30 p.m. Monday night ESPN
Not a lot of drama here. San Francisco is likely to lock up a playoff spot with an easy victory over Atlanta, a team that has massively underachieved this year.
49ers 31, Falcons 17
Cowboys at Redskins, 1 p.m. FOX
I'd be lying if I said I had confidence in the Cowboys at this point. Whether it's Tony Romo's fault or not, the annual December swoon seems to be here: Dallas has lost two games in a row. Still, the Cowboys handled the Redskins at home, 31-16, during Week 6. Turnovers and special teams play went a long way in helping the Cowboys win. Dwayne Harris was huge in the punt and kick return game. Unfortunately the Cowboys will be without him in this game. Linebacker Sean Lee is also out again with his neck injury.
In that first meeting, Washington actually accumulated more yards -- 433 to 213. So that is something that worries me for this game. A lot of this game will come down to the same things I think. The Dallas defense has been decent to good this year when it has gotten turnovers and very bad when it hasn't. The Redskins turned the ball over seven times against the Falcons last week with backup QB Kirk Cousins now under center instead of Robert Griffin III. He threw a pair of picks and lost a fumble but also three TDs and 381 yards. Running back Alfred Morris has been stymied in recent weeks and has been under utilized, much like DeMarco Murray for Dallas. He hasn't gotten more than 20 carries in a game since a 24-16 loss to the Eagles in Week 11 despite averaging nearly five yards per carry this season. He's gone over 100 yards just three times -- vs. Green Bay, vs. San Diego, and vs. Minnesota. Against Dallas, he went for 81 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. If the Redskins can get both elements of their offense going, which means getting a lead -- their chances for a win increase. Dallas has to stake a lead in this game -- and hope it hangs on unlike last week. In the end, I guess I think the dysfunction in D.C. this year is bigger than the dysfunction in Big 'D.' I know that might not have a huge bearing on this game, but it has just been one of those seasons for the Redskins. And the Cowboys really need this win.If there's a ever a time for this team to focus and come out with 100 percent effort to get a win, it is now. I will be the most unsurprised Cowboys fan ever, however, if they drop this contest.
Cowboys 30, Redskins 28
Dolphins at Bills, 1 p.m. CBS
The Dolphins must win and hope the Ravens lose a game or the Patriots lose out. In scenario one, Miami would pick up a wild card. In scenario two, it would actually win the AFC East. Either way, the Dolphins needs to win this game at Buffalo. Bills QB E.J. Manuel is hurt again and Thaddeus Lewis will start under center, and he's played well in four starts this season. He started Buffalo's Week 7 23-21 win at Miami but did not play that well.
Dolphins 24, Bills 21
Saints at Panthers, 1 p.m. FOX
The Saints beat the Panthers just two weeks ago in New Orleans, but the Saints are a completely different team out of their dome. Carolina lost that game 31-13 and I expect this game to be much closer and might even go the Panthers' way.
Panthers 20, Saints 19
Steelers at Packers, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Green Bay stayed in the playoff picture with a big comeback victory over Dallas last week. Pittsburgh stayed in it with a nice, 30-20 win over Cincinnati. The Packers played awfully in the first half vs. the Cowboys and I don't think the Steelers will give up as many yards as the Cowboys through the air. They will look at what the Pack did to the 'Boys in the second half and adjust their defense accordingly. Should be a good game pitting a couple desperate teams. If Green Bay can win, it would just need to beat the Bears next week to win the NFC North, regardless of what the Bears do against the Eagles on Sunday night.
Steelers 23, Packers 21
Patriots at Ravens, 4:25 p.m. CBS
Both of these teams are in unique positions -- if New England wins out, it gets the AFC's No. 1 seed. If it loses out, there is a scenario where the Pats would miss the playoffs. The Ravens could also miss the playoffs, but could get the No. 2 seed by winning out. New England usually seems to have trouble at Baltimore and has struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 3-2 in their past five games and their wins were by three, three, and one points, the last two wins coming over Houston and Cleveland.
Ravens 23, Patriots 20
Bears at Eagles, 8:30 p.m. NBC
Both of these teams are in similar positions. If the Cowboys lose to the Redskins, the Eagles just need to beat the Bears and they win the NFC East. If the Packers lose to the Steelers, the Bears just need to win and they win the NFC North. Otherwise, whichever team loses will have big games Week 17 vs. those rivals for the division crown (unless the Lions win out, then things get complicated in the North). The Bears cannot stop the run, and the Eagles have the best rushing offense in the league. Bears QB Jay Cutler is going to have his work cut out trying to keep up with Philly's scoring, probably. I like the Eagles in this one.
Eagles 41, Bears 35
Falcons at 49ers, 8:30 p.m. Monday night ESPN
Not a lot of drama here. San Francisco is likely to lock up a playoff spot with an easy victory over Atlanta, a team that has massively underachieved this year.
49ers 31, Falcons 17
Cowboys at Redskins, 1 p.m. FOX
I'd be lying if I said I had confidence in the Cowboys at this point. Whether it's Tony Romo's fault or not, the annual December swoon seems to be here: Dallas has lost two games in a row. Still, the Cowboys handled the Redskins at home, 31-16, during Week 6. Turnovers and special teams play went a long way in helping the Cowboys win. Dwayne Harris was huge in the punt and kick return game. Unfortunately the Cowboys will be without him in this game. Linebacker Sean Lee is also out again with his neck injury.
In that first meeting, Washington actually accumulated more yards -- 433 to 213. So that is something that worries me for this game. A lot of this game will come down to the same things I think. The Dallas defense has been decent to good this year when it has gotten turnovers and very bad when it hasn't. The Redskins turned the ball over seven times against the Falcons last week with backup QB Kirk Cousins now under center instead of Robert Griffin III. He threw a pair of picks and lost a fumble but also three TDs and 381 yards. Running back Alfred Morris has been stymied in recent weeks and has been under utilized, much like DeMarco Murray for Dallas. He hasn't gotten more than 20 carries in a game since a 24-16 loss to the Eagles in Week 11 despite averaging nearly five yards per carry this season. He's gone over 100 yards just three times -- vs. Green Bay, vs. San Diego, and vs. Minnesota. Against Dallas, he went for 81 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. If the Redskins can get both elements of their offense going, which means getting a lead -- their chances for a win increase. Dallas has to stake a lead in this game -- and hope it hangs on unlike last week. In the end, I guess I think the dysfunction in D.C. this year is bigger than the dysfunction in Big 'D.' I know that might not have a huge bearing on this game, but it has just been one of those seasons for the Redskins. And the Cowboys really need this win.If there's a ever a time for this team to focus and come out with 100 percent effort to get a win, it is now. I will be the most unsurprised Cowboys fan ever, however, if they drop this contest.
Cowboys 30, Redskins 28
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