I went 4-0 Saturday in college bowl picks and am now 6-5 in those. Let's see if I can keep it rolling with NFL picks. I'll pick a few games in this post and then write a separate post for the Cowboys-Eagles game. Last week, I went 5-2 in NFL picks and am now 43-38 on the year.
Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m. FOX
All Carolina has to do is win this game to win the NFC South. If it loses, it opens the door for New Orleans to win the division should it beat Tampa Bay. Atlanta has had a terrible year but has lost a ton of close games: by six to the Saints, by four to the Dolphins, by seven to the Patriots, by two to the Jets, by four to the Saints, and by one to the Packers. They are a few injuries away from a solid season. I think they won't go down without a fight in this one but I do like the Panthers.
Panthers 27, Falcons 17
Ravens at Bengals, 1 p.m. CBS (and a look at the complicated AFC playoff picture)
The scenarios for the AFC's final playoff seed are numerous and confusing. Let's see if I can clear it up at all.
Going into last week, the Ravens held the No. 6 spot over the Dolphins and both were 8-6. Both teams lost, are now 8-7, and now the Dolphins hold the spot. How could that be? Before last week, the two-way tie was determined by head-to-head meeting. The Ravens beat the Dolphins earlier this year. San Diego, however, won last week, making itself also 8-7. With a three-way tie, the tiebreaker moves to AFC record, and not head-to-head meeting. Miami is better than both teams in that department. Thus, it is now at No. 6. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, they do not necessarily make the playoffs. That is because if the Ravens also win, and the Chargers lose, then it would be back to a two-way tie with the Dolphins and Ravens at 9-7 and Baltimore would then be No. 6 based on head-to-head meeting. So if Miami wins, and Baltimore wins, the Dolphins need to root for the Chargers to win to create the three-way tie so they can be No. 6. Crazy, huh? If all three teams lose, the Ravens get the spot. If the Dolphins and Ravens lose, and the Chargers win, San Diego makes the playoffs. And the sneaky Steelers, at 7-8, seemingly dead for weeks but actually never out of it, could actually still make the playoffs if Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego all lose.
So, back to this game. I don't think the Ravens will win because the Bengals have played very well at home and haven't lost a game there. Cincinnati has locked up the NFC North title but is still playing for a possible No. 2 seed.
Bengals 28, Ravens 20
Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m. CBS
If the Ravens lose, all Miami has to do is win and it is in. I was feeling good about the Dolphins' playoff chances until last week when it was somehow shut out vs. the Bills and gained only 103 yards of offense. I'm not sure how to explain that with a lot on the line. Hopefully they will have the proper motivation in this game. You better believe New York will want to end Miami's season, though. If Miami loses, it is definitely out. The Dolphins beat the Jets in a New York a few weeks ago, 23-3. I think the Jets will put up a big fight in this one, but the Dolphins will end up pulling it out at home and claim the No. 6 spot.
Dolphins 17, Jets 14
Redskins at Giants, 1 p.m. FOX
The only drama in this game is will Mike Shanahan be fired after an eighth straight loss? Tom Coughlin should be OK in New York. He has earned some cushion with two Super Bowl wins and the Giants, if they win, will have gone 7-3 after an 0-6 start.
Giants 24, Redskins 14
Browns at Steelers, 1 p.m. CBS
I like Pittsburgh in this game but I don't think it will matter because the chips won't fall their way in the playoff picture.
Steelers 31, Browns 17
Packers at Bears, 4:25 p.m. FOX
The complexion of this game changed with the revelation that Aaron Rodgers will start for Green Bay. Even though he will be rusty, I like the Packers to win this one with him under center. If he was out, I would pick Chicago. I think he makes a difference and gives the Packers offense a lift and the team a confidence boost. Bears QB Jay Cutler has not been overwhelmingly good since returning from an injury.
Packers 31, Bears 27
Buccaneers at Saints, 4:25 p.m. FOX
If the Saints win, they will make the playoffs. They could even win the NFC South with a Carolina loss. If they don't win, they open the door for the Cardinals and should Arizona win, New Orleans would not make it. Quite a dichotomy. I don't think the Saints will have too much of a problem with Tampa Bay in the dome, though. despite the fact they have struggled the past two weeks in losses to the Rams and Panthers.
Saints 24, Buccaneers 14
49ers at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Arizona fans will be scoreboard-watching during this contest. If Tampa Bay can upset New Orleans, the Cardinals just need to win to make the playoffs. San Francisco will be, too, because if Carolina somehow loses to Atlanta and Seattle loses to St. Louis, San Francisco gets the No. 1 seed with a win. I think the Panthers will win at 1 p.m., though, and Seattle will beat the Rams. This will give the 49ers less motivation. The Cardinals will win in a close contest, but it won't make matter because the Saints will win. The Cardinals will finish the season 11-5 and will not make the playoffs.
Cardinals 20, 49ers 17
Chargers at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. CBS
San Diego might have something to play for if the Dolphins and Ravens manage to lose in early games. I don't expect that to happen, but I do think San Diego will win this game. Kansas City has nothing to play for except momentum. It is locked into the No. 5 seed.
Chargers 35, Chiefs 21
Rams at Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Seattle can wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in this contest. It lost at home last week to the Cardinals, 17-10. I can't see the Seahawks losing at home again. The Rams have won two impressive games in a row, over New Orleans and Tampa Bay, and played Seattle tough in St. Louis, but I don't think they will keep in the Great Northwest.
Seahawks 24, Rams 16
Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m. FOX
All Carolina has to do is win this game to win the NFC South. If it loses, it opens the door for New Orleans to win the division should it beat Tampa Bay. Atlanta has had a terrible year but has lost a ton of close games: by six to the Saints, by four to the Dolphins, by seven to the Patriots, by two to the Jets, by four to the Saints, and by one to the Packers. They are a few injuries away from a solid season. I think they won't go down without a fight in this one but I do like the Panthers.
Panthers 27, Falcons 17
Ravens at Bengals, 1 p.m. CBS (and a look at the complicated AFC playoff picture)
The scenarios for the AFC's final playoff seed are numerous and confusing. Let's see if I can clear it up at all.
Going into last week, the Ravens held the No. 6 spot over the Dolphins and both were 8-6. Both teams lost, are now 8-7, and now the Dolphins hold the spot. How could that be? Before last week, the two-way tie was determined by head-to-head meeting. The Ravens beat the Dolphins earlier this year. San Diego, however, won last week, making itself also 8-7. With a three-way tie, the tiebreaker moves to AFC record, and not head-to-head meeting. Miami is better than both teams in that department. Thus, it is now at No. 6. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, they do not necessarily make the playoffs. That is because if the Ravens also win, and the Chargers lose, then it would be back to a two-way tie with the Dolphins and Ravens at 9-7 and Baltimore would then be No. 6 based on head-to-head meeting. So if Miami wins, and Baltimore wins, the Dolphins need to root for the Chargers to win to create the three-way tie so they can be No. 6. Crazy, huh? If all three teams lose, the Ravens get the spot. If the Dolphins and Ravens lose, and the Chargers win, San Diego makes the playoffs. And the sneaky Steelers, at 7-8, seemingly dead for weeks but actually never out of it, could actually still make the playoffs if Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego all lose.
So, back to this game. I don't think the Ravens will win because the Bengals have played very well at home and haven't lost a game there. Cincinnati has locked up the NFC North title but is still playing for a possible No. 2 seed.
Bengals 28, Ravens 20
Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m. CBS
If the Ravens lose, all Miami has to do is win and it is in. I was feeling good about the Dolphins' playoff chances until last week when it was somehow shut out vs. the Bills and gained only 103 yards of offense. I'm not sure how to explain that with a lot on the line. Hopefully they will have the proper motivation in this game. You better believe New York will want to end Miami's season, though. If Miami loses, it is definitely out. The Dolphins beat the Jets in a New York a few weeks ago, 23-3. I think the Jets will put up a big fight in this one, but the Dolphins will end up pulling it out at home and claim the No. 6 spot.
Dolphins 17, Jets 14
Redskins at Giants, 1 p.m. FOX
The only drama in this game is will Mike Shanahan be fired after an eighth straight loss? Tom Coughlin should be OK in New York. He has earned some cushion with two Super Bowl wins and the Giants, if they win, will have gone 7-3 after an 0-6 start.
Giants 24, Redskins 14
Browns at Steelers, 1 p.m. CBS
I like Pittsburgh in this game but I don't think it will matter because the chips won't fall their way in the playoff picture.
Steelers 31, Browns 17
Packers at Bears, 4:25 p.m. FOX
The complexion of this game changed with the revelation that Aaron Rodgers will start for Green Bay. Even though he will be rusty, I like the Packers to win this one with him under center. If he was out, I would pick Chicago. I think he makes a difference and gives the Packers offense a lift and the team a confidence boost. Bears QB Jay Cutler has not been overwhelmingly good since returning from an injury.
Packers 31, Bears 27
Buccaneers at Saints, 4:25 p.m. FOX
If the Saints win, they will make the playoffs. They could even win the NFC South with a Carolina loss. If they don't win, they open the door for the Cardinals and should Arizona win, New Orleans would not make it. Quite a dichotomy. I don't think the Saints will have too much of a problem with Tampa Bay in the dome, though. despite the fact they have struggled the past two weeks in losses to the Rams and Panthers.
Saints 24, Buccaneers 14
49ers at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Arizona fans will be scoreboard-watching during this contest. If Tampa Bay can upset New Orleans, the Cardinals just need to win to make the playoffs. San Francisco will be, too, because if Carolina somehow loses to Atlanta and Seattle loses to St. Louis, San Francisco gets the No. 1 seed with a win. I think the Panthers will win at 1 p.m., though, and Seattle will beat the Rams. This will give the 49ers less motivation. The Cardinals will win in a close contest, but it won't make matter because the Saints will win. The Cardinals will finish the season 11-5 and will not make the playoffs.
Cardinals 20, 49ers 17
Chargers at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. CBS
San Diego might have something to play for if the Dolphins and Ravens manage to lose in early games. I don't expect that to happen, but I do think San Diego will win this game. Kansas City has nothing to play for except momentum. It is locked into the No. 5 seed.
Chargers 35, Chiefs 21
Rams at Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. FOX
Seattle can wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in this contest. It lost at home last week to the Cardinals, 17-10. I can't see the Seahawks losing at home again. The Rams have won two impressive games in a row, over New Orleans and Tampa Bay, and played Seattle tough in St. Louis, but I don't think they will keep in the Great Northwest.
Seahawks 24, Rams 16
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