Northern Iowa at Virginia, 4 p.m. ESPN3.com
This year, so far, Virginia's losses are to good teams. VCU is not quite as good as people thought, but still a very good Atlantic 10 team that probably won't lose 10 games. Wisconsin is up to No. 4 in the country and is still undefeated. Green Bay has stumbled a bit but is 7-3 and is expected to win its conference, the Horizon League. Virginia had its chances to win all of these games. Against VCU, had Virginia made a couple more free throws or hit one more 3 (it made just one), it would have won. Against the Badgers, Virginia played great defense, but could not hit any shots and scored just 38 points (obviously lots of credit should go to Wisconsin, too). At Green Bay, it was the defense's turn to drop the ball. Obviously, it would have been ideal for Virginia to win any or all of these games, but it did not happen. It is not time to panic, though. ESPN has Virginia's RPI at 44. That is thanks to a schedule that has been pretty tough so far. The only teams with losing records Virginia has faced have been James Madison, Liberty, Hampton, and Davidson. Davidson is a respectable mid-major program that is 4-7 and has had a killer schedule, playing Duke, Clemson, New Mexico (ranked 19th at the time), and Drexel (two of its three losses are to top 25 teams) in addition to UVa. SMU and Missouri State have only two losses each.
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If it feels like it has been a long time since the Virginia men's basketball team has played, it's because it has been. The Cavaliers' last outing was a 75-72 road loss to coach Tony Bennett's alma mater, Green Bay, on Dec. 7. Virginia finished up its first 10 games of the season with consecutive losses to schools from the state of Wisconsin, Wisconsin and the previously mentioned Phoenix. The Cavaliers are 7-3 this year with wins over JMU, Davidson, Liberty, Hampton, Navy, SMU, and Missouri State; the other loss came to VCU in the second game of the season when the Rams tied the game up and hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds to win, 59-56. The Wahoos try to get back on track Saturday after a two-week exam break, hosting Northern Iowa, another scrappy mid-major team. Lots of fans are concerned about the Cavaliers' chances of making the NCAA tournament.
If it feels like it has been a long time since the Virginia men's basketball team has played, it's because it has been. The Cavaliers' last outing was a 75-72 road loss to coach Tony Bennett's alma mater, Green Bay, on Dec. 7. Virginia finished up its first 10 games of the season with consecutive losses to schools from the state of Wisconsin, Wisconsin and the previously mentioned Phoenix. The Cavaliers are 7-3 this year with wins over JMU, Davidson, Liberty, Hampton, Navy, SMU, and Missouri State; the other loss came to VCU in the second game of the season when the Rams tied the game up and hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds to win, 59-56. The Wahoos try to get back on track Saturday after a two-week exam break, hosting Northern Iowa, another scrappy mid-major team. Lots of fans are concerned about the Cavaliers' chances of making the NCAA tournament.
At this time last season, Virginia was 9-2. However, it was in a more precarious position RPI-wise than this year's team because of two losses to teams that eventually ended up being not very good, Delaware and George Mason. As I have talked about before, the Delaware loss hurt a lot because it was a home loss in the preseason NIT and it meant that the Cavaliers faced bad teams North Texas and Lamar at home instead of Pittsburgh and Kansas State at Madison Square Garden. Many fans think had Virginia beaten Delaware, it would have gone to the NCAA tournament based on the strength of schedule boost it would have received from playing the Wildcats and Panthers, even if UVa had lost to those squads. Virginia would also go on to lose to an eventual five-victory Old Dominion squad on Dec. 22 of last season to finish with three non-ACC losses. By the time Virginia started ACC play, I think its RPI was around 100 or so. Not good. Generally, a team that does not win its conference tournament needs an RPI of about 40 or better to go to the NCAA tournament. Virginia ended its regular season last year around 60, I believe. A loss to N.C. State in the ACC tournament solidified the fact that the Cavaliers were not going to make the Big Dance.
This year, so far, Virginia's losses are to good teams. VCU is not quite as good as people thought, but still a very good Atlantic 10 team that probably won't lose 10 games. Wisconsin is up to No. 4 in the country and is still undefeated. Green Bay has stumbled a bit but is 7-3 and is expected to win its conference, the Horizon League. Virginia had its chances to win all of these games. Against VCU, had Virginia made a couple more free throws or hit one more 3 (it made just one), it would have won. Against the Badgers, Virginia played great defense, but could not hit any shots and scored just 38 points (obviously lots of credit should go to Wisconsin, too). At Green Bay, it was the defense's turn to drop the ball. Obviously, it would have been ideal for Virginia to win any or all of these games, but it did not happen. It is not time to panic, though. ESPN has Virginia's RPI at 44. That is thanks to a schedule that has been pretty tough so far. The only teams with losing records Virginia has faced have been James Madison, Liberty, Hampton, and Davidson. Davidson is a respectable mid-major program that is 4-7 and has had a killer schedule, playing Duke, Clemson, New Mexico (ranked 19th at the time), and Drexel (two of its three losses are to top 25 teams) in addition to UVa. SMU and Missouri State have only two losses each.
Virginia has lots of talent and more depth than normal. Bennett has acknowledged it has been difficult piecing the puzzle together and finding different lineup combos that work. As conference play begins in January, and maybe even Saturday vs. Northern Iowa, look for Bennett to settle into a more refined rotation. He has been playing nine to ten guys pretty regularly, but look for that to get closer to eight and nine. I still have confidence that Bennett will make this work. If Virginia wins the games it should, has a big win or two, and avoids as many losses to bad teams as possible, there is no reason the Cavaliers won't make the NCAA tournament. A tougher ACC and two of the next three games being against decent-to-good opponents (Northern Iowa and Tennessee with a dangerous-but-low-RPI Norfolk State sandwiched in between) will help the RPI all season long.
Now, let's take a closer look at Northern Iowa. If the Panthers sound familiar, it is likely because you remember them from the 2010 NCAA tournament when they reached the Sweet 16 by beating No. 1 seed Kansas, 69-67. In the Sweet 16, they lost to Michigan State by seven and finished the season with a record of 30-5. In the years since, Northern Iowa has generally won around 20 games and has participated in an NIT and two CollegeInsider.com tournaments. The Panthers hail from the Missouri Valley Conference, a league renowned for hoarding quality mid-major programs such as Wichita State, Missouri State (a former UVa foe), Drake, Indiana State (a certain Larry Bird led it to a final in the 1980s against Magic Johnson's Michigan State team), and Bradley.
This year's Panthers are 5-5 and have multiple personalities. UNI is most recently coming off a home win over VCU last Saturday, so hopefully that got the 'Hoos' attention. The Panthers also battled top 25-ranked Iowa State to double overtime at home (the Panthers led by double digits in regulation) but fell, 91-82. Sandwiched in between those two efforts was a 54-50 home win over Savannah State, a team that is 2-10 with its only wins over non-Division I teams. The Panthers also have wins over Coe College, a Division III school, at home, Loyola Marymount (neutral court), and La Salle (neutral court). Their other losses are to Ohio (by 11 on the road), George Mason (by six on the road), Maryland (by 14 on a neutral court), and Milwaukee (by 11 on the road).
UNI is led by 6-foot-1 junior guard Deon Mitchell, who is averaging 13.5 points and 3.2 assists per game. Seth Tuttle, a 6-foot-8 junior forward, is second on the team averaging 12.7 ppg. He also grabs 6.8 rebounds per game. Nate Buss, a 6-foot-9 junior forward, is the only other player averaging in double figures (11.5 ppg and 5.3 rpg). Four other players -- Chip Rank, Matt Bohannon, Wes Washpun, and Jeremy Morgan -- all average at least 20 minutes and six points per game. Notably, Washpun also records 4.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. The Panthers are quite young, with only two seniors: Rank and Matt Morrison, who comes off the bench for just six minutes per game. I would expect UNI to be improved next season because of its youth. The Panthers rank 194th in the country in scoring, 212th in rebounding, and 184th in both assists and field goal percentage.
The Cavaliers have generally seemed to play well after breaks for Bennett. Also, last year, after their worst loss of the season to ODU, UVa destroyed Wofford and then beat North Carolina by nine. If Virginia plays a smart, sound game and comes out refreshed rather than relaxed after its break, there is no reason UVa should not be able to top Northern Iowa.
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Bowl season begins
The college football bowl season begins Saturday with four matchups and extends to Jan. 6 with the national championship between Auburn and Florida State. This is the final season of the BCS as next season the FBS moves to a four-team playoff. First, though, there are many other matchups to wade through: there are 35 bowls this season. I'll try to pick as many as I can but no guarantees I'll get to them all. And, not gonna lie, sometimes I won't know too much about either or both teams. Combining championship weekend with the regular season, I've gone 75-31 in picks. Here we go with Saturday's games.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Washington State (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-6)
Albuquerque, N.M. - 2 p.m. ESPN
Mike Leach has the Cougars in a bowl game in just his second season as head coach. A 6-6 Pac-12 team that beat both USC and Arizona should be able to beat a 7-6 Mountain West team. The Rams have zero wins over teams with winning records. UVa has one.
Washington State 37, Colorado State 27
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
No. 20 Fresno State (11-1) vs. No. 25 USC (9-4)
3:30 p.m. ABC
College football fans should be thankful for such a good matchup on day one of the bowl season. These two schools are separated by about three hours and should bring a good amount of fans to Las Vegas. Derek Carr, the brother of NFL QB David Carr, is Fresno State's QB and the NCAA leader in passing yards (4,886 yards) and passing touchdowns (48). He has thrown just seven picks and has a very quick release. The Bulldogs, champions of the Mountain West, were on pace for a BCS bid but fell short with a bad loss to San Jose State at the end of the regular season, 62-52. USC is on its third head coach. Lane Kiffin was fired midseason and Ed Orgeron was a likable interim coach that sparked the Trojans to wins over Arizona and Stanford but resigned after USC decided to hire Washington coach Steve Sarkisian as Kiffin's permanent replacement. In the bowl game, offensive coordinator Clay Helton will coach USC. So often, bowl games come down to motivation. Fresno State has to be disheartened that it missed a chance to go to a BCS game but it now gets a chance to prove itself to the nation once again with a victory over USC. The Trojans are disheartened that Orgeron is gone so I don't think they will bring their best effort for this game.
Fresno State 33, USC 30
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Buffalo (8-4) vs. San Diego State (7-5)
Boise, Idaho - 5:30 p.m. ESPN
Quickly perusing these teams' seasons, I found a few interesting nuggets: They both lost to Ohio State, 40-20 for Buffalo and 42-7 for San Diego State. Buffalo beat Stony Brook 26-23 in five overtimes. The Bulls also gave up 70 points to Baylor. San Diego State played in four overtime games, going 3-1. The loss was to Fresno State and one of the wins was over Boise State. The Aztecs lost to FCS school Eastern Illinois 40-19 to open the season. EIU is the alma mater of Cowboys QB Tony Romo. Normally, I would take the Mountain West team in this one, but San Diego State has been on the verge of several losses while Buffalo has been more dominant in their wins. I do think it will be a pretty close game, though.
Buffalo 24, San Diego State 17
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Tulane (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)
9 p.m. ESPN
The cool thing about this game is it is two Louisiana teams playing in New Orleans so that should make for a pretty good atmosphere. The Green Wave has better victories this year than the Ragin' Cajuns so I'll take Tulane.
Tulane 28, Louisiana-Lafayette 24
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