BCS national championship pick

No. 1 Florida State (13-0) vs. No. 2 Auburn (12-1), 8:30 p.m. ESPN

I think the line for this game, where Florida State is favored by 10.5, is really high. Yes, the Seminoles have beaten every opponent by at least 14 points. Only Boston College lost to FSU by that much. Every other team lost to FSU by at least 27 points. The 'Noles dominated their "big" games, crushing Clemson (51-14), Miami (41-14), and Duke in the ACC title game (45-7). But I don't think they have faced a team riding as high as Auburn or an offense like the Tigers'. They have the best rushing offense in the country. Watch out for Tre Mason running the ball. He came on hard at the end of the year and was a dark horse Heisman candidate. FSU has scored the most points in the country and given up the fewest in the country. It hasn't seen a schedule as tough as Auburn's, though. The Tigers faced LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri. I would argue all but maybe one of those teams is as good as FSU's toughest opponent, Clemson. Auburn had some close calls, yes. The Tigers got lucky vs. Georgia (miraculous Hail Mary TD from QB Nick Marshall to WR Ricardo Louis) and Alabama (missed FG return for a TD by Chris Davis). They also lost to LSU, whereas FSU is obviously perfect so far.

There are lots of reasons to pick Florida State tonight. It is having one of the most dominant seasons in college football history. Jameis Winston and Co. have barely had to lift a finger to beat most teams. Winston can run the ball and pass the ball. He threw 38 TDs compared to only 10 INTs. His favorite targets are Rashard Greene, Kelvin Benjamin, and Kenny Shaw, all of whom have at least 50 catches and six TDs. Auburn had to have some luck to get where it is. But the Tigers have gotten better and are now a legitimate top team. They have been down and out, lost a game, and played a very demanding schedule. I think if the pressure gets on them tonight, they will respond. I don't know how the Seminoles will respond if they get down a little bit. They have rarely faced adversity this year. There have also been several upsets in bowls this season. Why not add this game to the list? I am picking Auburn and I think this will be a fantastic game. With that said, I am also 7-11 in picking bowl games this year so you might not want to listen to me. I hope FSU wins, though. That would do a lot of good for the reputation of the ACC, which has been looked down upon nationally for more than a decade now.
Auburn 39, Florida State 37

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