In this post, I'm going to pick seven of the eight Sweet 16 games (every one except Virginia-Michigan State). I hope to pick every NCAA tournament game from here out (with maybe the exception of UVa, you've probably noticed I don't tend to pick scores for the Cavaliers' games).
Thursday
No. 11 Dayton vs. No. 10 Stanford in Memphis, 7:15 p.m. CBS
Dayton has gotten here on the strength of a combined three points -- a 60-59 win over Ohio State in the second round and a 55-53 win in the third round over Syracuse. Stanford beat New Mexico, 58-53, and then Kansas, 60-57. I think the Cardinal has had the slightly tougher road so far, but it did get to face the Jayhawks without center Joel Embiid. The Flyers drew an Ohio State team that was not spectacular in Big Ten play and a Syracuse team that really slipped down the stretch. Stanford has a great inside-out combination of Chasson Randle and Stefan Nastic. I think this will be a tight game because neither team has what it takes to pull away but I like Stanford to end Dayton's run.
Stanford 62, Dayton 58
No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 2 Wisconsin in Anaheim, 7:47 p.m. TBS
Offensive firepower of the Bears vs. the pack-line variation defense of the Badgers. Baylor has been one of the hottest teams in the tournament, having won 12 of 14 games. The Bears cruised by Nebraska and Creighton in their first two NCAA tournament games. Wisconsin also has yet to be challenged, destroying American and then mostly having an easy time with Oregon. I think Baylor's run will end when it meets the defense of Wisconsin, paired along with one of the better offensive teams Bo Ryan has ever had in Madison.
Wisconsin 68, Baylor 64
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 1 Florida in Memphis, 9:45 p.m. CBS
The Bruins have been impressive so far, beating Tulsa and then easily getting past cinderella Stephen F. Austin. UCLA likes to get up and down but I think Florida's defense will put the Bruins on lockdown. UCLA's Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson will push the Gators but ultimately I think Florida's 'D' and balance will win out. Plus, the Gators are the champion in my bracket so I have to pick them, right?
Florida 70, UCLA 66
No. 4 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Arizona in Anaheim, 10:17 p.m. TBS
This is a rematch from a game in November that the Wildcats won in San Diego, 69-60. The Aztecs have gotten here by beating New Mexico State in OT and then having no problem with North Dakota State. The Wildcats, meanwhile, got past Weber State and then topped Gonzaga. I think this will be a physical defensive game, but in the end, Arizona has a little more offense than SDSU and gets to the Elite Eight.
Arizona 62, San Diego State 60
Friday
No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Michigan in Indianapolis, 7:15 p.m. CBS
The Volunteers have won three games already instead of two: Over Iowa in the First Four in OT, then over Massachusetts in the second round, and then over upset-minded Mercer. Michigan has had little difficulty in beating Wofford and then Texas. The Wolverines hit 14 3-pointers vs. Texas. The Volunteers will have to be careful on defending the perimeter. Tennessee can get hot from 3 as well. Virginia knows this. The Vols hit 11 3s vs. UVa in December. Tennessee has good length to deal with Michigan's guards and also have more presence inside. Will it be enough? I don't think so but the Volunteers are playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Michigan 77, Tennessee 74
No. 7 Connecticut vs. No. 3 Iowa State in New York, 7:27 p.m. TBS
Shabazz Napier has led UConn on a Kemba Walker-like run in the Big Dance so far. Walker led the Huskies to a miraculous run three years ago to the title and now Napier is trying to do the same. Napier has scored 24 and 25 points in his first two games of the tournament in beat Saint Joseph's and Villanova. I think the Cyclones, who have downed North Carolina Central and then North Carolina have too much offensive firepower and balance, led by DeAndre Kane (24 points, 10 rebounds vs. UNC) for the Huskies to overcome. Napier will try to will his team to victory, but ISU takes this one.
Iowa State 70, Connecticut 65
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Louisville in Indianapolis, 9:45 p.m. CBS
The two most recent national champions and fierce rivals tangle in this Sweet 16 matchup. Louisville had a lot of trouble beating Manhattan and struggled early with Saint Louis but blew out the Billikens in the second half. Kentucky eased past Kansas State and then topped No. 1 seed Wichita State in a thriller. Louisville lost at Kentucky, 73-66, in December. I like the Cardinals to get some revenge and really start to play solid basketball in this game as they try to surge to another national title.
Louisville 76, Kentucky 71
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