Overall: 32-18; last week: 4-4
No. 4 Baylor at West Virginia, Noon FOX Sports 1
Points. Expect to see lots of points. These two teams battled in Morgantown two years ago and the Mountaineers came away with an incredible 70-63 victory. Last week, Baylor came back from 21 down against TCU to win in Waco, 61-58, to remain undefeated. WVU has looked much improved over last year's 4-8 campaign and sits at 4-2. Baylor is first in the country in points, scoring 52.7 per game and WVU is 28th at 36.7. Even though they have four wins (Towson, Maryland, Kansas, Texas Tech), the Mountaineers lack a marquee victory this year but did hang with Alabama (33-23) and Oklahoma (45-33) in losses. There are lots of variables in a wild, shootout-type game. I'm picking West Virginia to pull the upset at home.
West Virginia 55, Baylor 52
No. 14 Kansas State at No. 11 Oklahoma, Noon ESPN
This game is kind of a wash, hard to tell who could win. KSU is 4-1 with wins over Stephen F. Austin, Iowa State, UTEP, and Texas Tech, all blowouts except for ISU, which was a four-point win. The Wildcats played Auburn close at home but lost, 20-14. The Sooners are 5-1 with wins over Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Texas, all by double digits except for the Texas game last week, which ended up being a 31-26 affair. The Sooners lost to TCU by four two weeks ago on the road. Both teams score about 40 points per game and give up about 21 points per game. At home, I'll take OU but KSU won in Norman two years ago when both teams were undefeated early in the season.
Oklahoma 34, Kansas State 31
No. 21 Texas A&M at No. 7 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Aggies were overrated going into the season. They were No. 21 to start the season and they got a big win at then-No. 9 South Carolina. Turns out, the Gamecocks might not be very good either. A&M reached a peak of No. 6 before getting blown out by Mississippi State. Last week, the Aggies lost to Ole Miss. This week they will probably find the going tough in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide who are not playing great ball this year but should be able to get past the Aggies.
Alabama 27, Texas A&M 17
No. 24 Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
Sneaky good matchup here. The Tigers lost quarterback Deshaun Watson last week to a broken finger in the second quarter against Louisville and had to turn to former starter Cole Stoudt, who was benched during the Florida State game for Watson earlier this season. Against the Cardinals, Stoudt completed 20 of 33 passes for 162 yards and a pick. He gutted the Tigers to a 23-17 win with a hurt shoulder himself. BC has been on and off good and not-so-good, losing to Pittsburgh, 30-20, and then the next week running all over USC in a 37-31 victory. Two weeks after that, the Eagles lost to Colorado State, 24-21. Last week, they got back in the win column, 30-14, at N.C. State. With Watson, I like Clemson in a semi-close game but I think BC has a real shot here with Stoudt under center instead. BC's defense has been pretty solid this year and its rushing offense is ranked fifth in the country in yardage. Quarterback Tyler Murphy has ran for 711 yards but is not a good passer. If Clemson can contain him, it will have a chance. The Tigers defense has been off and on this season.
Boston College 24, Clemson 21
No. 15 Oklahoma State at No. 12 TCU, 4 p.m. FOX Sports 1
Oklahoma State started off the year with an impressive loss to Florida State, 37-31. Since then, though, the shine has worn off that close loss some with the struggles of FSU, OSU has been ragged itself in a few wins over Missouri State (40-23), Texas Tech (45-35), Iowa State (37-20), and Kansas (27-20). I think the Horned Frogs will be smarting from giving up a big lead at Baylor. In Fort Worth, I like TCU to bounce back in a close win.
TCU 42, Oklahoma State 38
Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 7 p.m. ESPNU
The beat goes on for North Carolina's defense. It hasn't given up less than 34 points in a game since Sept. 6 and has allowed an average of 51 points per game in its last four contests, all losses. Georgia Tech will be looking to get back on track after losing to Duke last week for the first time in a decade. I have to think that the Yellow Jackets are going to run all over the Tar Heels, who rank near 100th in the nation in rushing defense.
Georgia Tech 42, North Carolina 32
Washington at No. 9 Oregon, 8 p.m. FOX Sports 1
Another sneaky good matchup. New coach Chris Petersen (he of Boise State fame) has the Huskies at 5-1 but unranked. Sophomore quarterback Cyler Miles has nine TDs and zero INTs. Oregon is Oregon, but I believe more vulnerable under coach Mark Helfrich than it was under Chip Kelly. The Ducks lost two weeks ago at home to Arizona but bounced back last week with a win at UCLA. Washington has had a much easier schedule than Oregon so far, beating Hawaii, Eastern Washington, Illinois, Georgia State, and Cal. Its loss was a close one, 20-13, to a Stanford team ranked No. 16. Oregon has beaten Michigan State and Washington has no win that looks that good. Oregon is listed as a 20.5-point favorite on ESPN.com and I think that is way too high but I think the stage will be a little too big right now for Petersen's Boise State squad to go into the Autzen Zoo and grab a victory. But in a prediction that probably lots of people are making, I think Petersen will have the Huskies battling for Pac-12 titles in short order.
Oregon 31, Washington 24
Game of the week: No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Florida State, 8 p.m. ABC
Florida State has struggled this year but is still undefeated and has not scored fewer than 37 points with Jameis Winston under center. And that embattled kid sometimes seems to block out distractions the best when there are many swirling around him. That is certainly the case right now. I was feeling pretty good about the Fighting Irish up until last week when they found themselves in a home battle with struggling North Carolina. Notre Dame ended up winning, 50-43, but that defense seems vulnerable and I think that and a home crowd will be the difference for the Seminoles as they pull away late. Notre Dame has yet to play a true road game (it faced Purdue in Indianapolis and Syracuse at the New York Giants/Jets stadium).
Florida State 38, Notre Dame 27
No. 23 Stanford at No. 17 Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. ESPN
A big game for the Pac-12 title race. The Cardinal is 2-1 in the conference, tied with one loss in the North division with Oregon and Washington. ASU is 2-1, too, tied with one loss in the South with USC, Arizona State, and Utah. Stanford has just two losses this year by a combined six points, 13-10 to USC, and 17-14 to Notre Dame. ASU's lone loss was a blowout, 62-27, at the hands of UCLA at home. In their last game, Oct. 4, the Sun Devils got on track with an upset road win over USC, 38-34. I like ASU in this game since it has had a bye week to prepare.
Arizona State 20, Stanford 17
Virginia at Duke, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Fifty-six to zero. Let me say that again. Fifty-six to zero. That is the combined score of the past two second halves that Virginia has played against Duke. Absolutely terrible and something that must change if the Cavaliers plan on beating the Blue Devils on the road Saturday. That included a 17-14 halftime lead for UVa two years in ago in Durham and a 22-7 lead in Charlottesville last season which was 22-0 before a late first-half TD by Duke. Whether that is coaching adjustments being made by Duke and not by Virginia or the players letting up -- it must change.
Overall, Duke has had UVa's number in recent years, winning five of six games dating back to 2008. Duke's 31-3 win in Durham that year broke a 25ish-game ACC losing streak. In 2010 in Durham, Virginia lost 55-48 after holding a late, 48-47 lead before giving up a 4th-and-20 conversion to the Blue Devils which eventually led to them scoring the final touchdown. Then there was that debacle two years ago I already mentioned. Duke went on to a 42-17 win in that contest.
There has been some trash talking from the Blue Devils this week, too. For some reason, Duke does not like UVa and I think the feeling is becoming mutual. I think Duke has used success against Virginia in recent seasons as a springboard for ACC success and thus, the Blue Devils feel like they
own the Cavaliers. Plus, in 2011, Virginia's only victory over the past six years in the series, former UVa cornerback Chase Minnifield apparently yelled to the sideline at Duke coach David Cutcliffe something to the effect of, "You ain't got no more Mannings, man!" a reference to the fact that Cutcliffe coached both Peyton and Eli Manning when they were in college but they were not on the Duke 2011 squad. I believe Cutcliffe complained to Mike London after the game about Minnifield. If I recall correctly, London seemed to have an expression on his face that showed he wasn't all too pleased with the way Cutcliffe was voicing his displeasure.
So how does the game break down in matchups? Duke has run the ball a lot this year and mainly uses three backs. Freshman Shaun Wilson has gained 466 yards on 43 carries, an incredible 10.8 yards per carry. He has notched four touchdowns. Josh Snead (256 yards, two TDs) and Shaquille Powell (200 yards, two TDs) are the other two main tailbacks for Duke. QB Anthony Boone (148 yards, three TDs) is also a capable runner. Passing, Boone has completed 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,186 yards, eight touchdowns, and three picks. Jamison Crowder, one of the most prolific receivers in Duke and ACC history, is the main beneficiary of Boone's throws with 32 receptions for 372 yards and a pair of scores. Max McCaffrey (23 catches, 236 yards, three TDs) and Issac Blakeney (19 catches, 212 yards, three TDs) are also solid contributors for the Blue Devils. Duke is only 93rd in the country in passing but is 24th in rushing. Virginia needs to force Duke to pass to win the game and then make sure it knows where Crowder is at all times.
Defensively, Duke is only giving up 15.5 points per game. It is important, though, to look at who the Blue Devils have played that have helped them achieve a 5-1 record and sterling defensive stat. A 31-25 win over Georgia Tech last week was impressive, but before that, Duke downed the likes of Elon, Troy, Kansas, and Tulane. Then Miami handed Duke its first loss with a decisive 26-10 win in Florida. Yardage wise, Duke does not fare as well as it does in the points category. Duke is ranked 60th overall in yardage allowed, 100th against the run, but 17th against the pass. That to me should signal a run-heavy game from Virginia. Hopefully we see lots of Kevin Parks, Khalek Shepherd, and Taquan Mizzell. Greyson Lambert is probably starting at QB after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. He could be rusty and that would be all the more reason for the Cavaliers to concentrate on running the ball and pick spots with safe passes to begin the game.
One interesting aspect of the game to watch will be turnovers. Virginia is tied for second in the country in gaining turnovers with 19. Duke, however, does not turn the ball over much (only five times this year). Duke is actually better on turnover margin than the 'Hoos because Virginia has also turned it over 14 times for a plus-five margin. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have created 12 turnovers for a margin of plus seven.
Duke has not proven too much this season. The four wins at the beginning of the year came against unimpressive teams. The victory over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech was really nice and tells me that Duke's defense probably is pretty good compared to years past. However, the result wasn't that unsurprising in that lots of teams that have byes before playing the Yellow Jackets (like Duke had) play well because they are able to figure out the Georgia Tech offense and really buckle down on 'D' with the extra week of preparation.
With that said, I just can't shake the bad feeling of recent Duke games and have a feeling this contest will break the wrong way for the Wahoos. I hope I am incorrect, because what lies in front of the team is a huge opportunity. If Virginia wins, it will have at least a two-game lead in the division on every team except for Georgia Tech (unless GT loses to UNC, in which case the Jackets would indeed have two ACC losses). If Virginia loses, though, it would have one conference loss along with Duke, Pittsburgh, and GT if it beats UNC. A victory would really put Virginia in the driver's seat for a division title, unfathomable at the beginning of the season.
But, like I said, Duke just doesn't sit right with me. I feel like something is going to go wrong at the wrong moment and UVa is coming away with a loss. In the end, I think a key big play or turnover will go Duke's way, or Virginia might just end up kicking too many field goals and not scoring enough touchdowns. Ready, waiting, and hoping for the guys to prove me wrong as they have already on a couple occasions this season.
Duke 27, Virginia 23
No. 4 Baylor at West Virginia, Noon FOX Sports 1
Points. Expect to see lots of points. These two teams battled in Morgantown two years ago and the Mountaineers came away with an incredible 70-63 victory. Last week, Baylor came back from 21 down against TCU to win in Waco, 61-58, to remain undefeated. WVU has looked much improved over last year's 4-8 campaign and sits at 4-2. Baylor is first in the country in points, scoring 52.7 per game and WVU is 28th at 36.7. Even though they have four wins (Towson, Maryland, Kansas, Texas Tech), the Mountaineers lack a marquee victory this year but did hang with Alabama (33-23) and Oklahoma (45-33) in losses. There are lots of variables in a wild, shootout-type game. I'm picking West Virginia to pull the upset at home.
West Virginia 55, Baylor 52
No. 14 Kansas State at No. 11 Oklahoma, Noon ESPN
This game is kind of a wash, hard to tell who could win. KSU is 4-1 with wins over Stephen F. Austin, Iowa State, UTEP, and Texas Tech, all blowouts except for ISU, which was a four-point win. The Wildcats played Auburn close at home but lost, 20-14. The Sooners are 5-1 with wins over Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Texas, all by double digits except for the Texas game last week, which ended up being a 31-26 affair. The Sooners lost to TCU by four two weeks ago on the road. Both teams score about 40 points per game and give up about 21 points per game. At home, I'll take OU but KSU won in Norman two years ago when both teams were undefeated early in the season.
Oklahoma 34, Kansas State 31
No. 21 Texas A&M at No. 7 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Aggies were overrated going into the season. They were No. 21 to start the season and they got a big win at then-No. 9 South Carolina. Turns out, the Gamecocks might not be very good either. A&M reached a peak of No. 6 before getting blown out by Mississippi State. Last week, the Aggies lost to Ole Miss. This week they will probably find the going tough in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide who are not playing great ball this year but should be able to get past the Aggies.
Alabama 27, Texas A&M 17
No. 24 Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
Sneaky good matchup here. The Tigers lost quarterback Deshaun Watson last week to a broken finger in the second quarter against Louisville and had to turn to former starter Cole Stoudt, who was benched during the Florida State game for Watson earlier this season. Against the Cardinals, Stoudt completed 20 of 33 passes for 162 yards and a pick. He gutted the Tigers to a 23-17 win with a hurt shoulder himself. BC has been on and off good and not-so-good, losing to Pittsburgh, 30-20, and then the next week running all over USC in a 37-31 victory. Two weeks after that, the Eagles lost to Colorado State, 24-21. Last week, they got back in the win column, 30-14, at N.C. State. With Watson, I like Clemson in a semi-close game but I think BC has a real shot here with Stoudt under center instead. BC's defense has been pretty solid this year and its rushing offense is ranked fifth in the country in yardage. Quarterback Tyler Murphy has ran for 711 yards but is not a good passer. If Clemson can contain him, it will have a chance. The Tigers defense has been off and on this season.
Boston College 24, Clemson 21
No. 15 Oklahoma State at No. 12 TCU, 4 p.m. FOX Sports 1
Oklahoma State started off the year with an impressive loss to Florida State, 37-31. Since then, though, the shine has worn off that close loss some with the struggles of FSU, OSU has been ragged itself in a few wins over Missouri State (40-23), Texas Tech (45-35), Iowa State (37-20), and Kansas (27-20). I think the Horned Frogs will be smarting from giving up a big lead at Baylor. In Fort Worth, I like TCU to bounce back in a close win.
TCU 42, Oklahoma State 38
Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 7 p.m. ESPNU
The beat goes on for North Carolina's defense. It hasn't given up less than 34 points in a game since Sept. 6 and has allowed an average of 51 points per game in its last four contests, all losses. Georgia Tech will be looking to get back on track after losing to Duke last week for the first time in a decade. I have to think that the Yellow Jackets are going to run all over the Tar Heels, who rank near 100th in the nation in rushing defense.
Georgia Tech 42, North Carolina 32
Washington at No. 9 Oregon, 8 p.m. FOX Sports 1
Another sneaky good matchup. New coach Chris Petersen (he of Boise State fame) has the Huskies at 5-1 but unranked. Sophomore quarterback Cyler Miles has nine TDs and zero INTs. Oregon is Oregon, but I believe more vulnerable under coach Mark Helfrich than it was under Chip Kelly. The Ducks lost two weeks ago at home to Arizona but bounced back last week with a win at UCLA. Washington has had a much easier schedule than Oregon so far, beating Hawaii, Eastern Washington, Illinois, Georgia State, and Cal. Its loss was a close one, 20-13, to a Stanford team ranked No. 16. Oregon has beaten Michigan State and Washington has no win that looks that good. Oregon is listed as a 20.5-point favorite on ESPN.com and I think that is way too high but I think the stage will be a little too big right now for Petersen's Boise State squad to go into the Autzen Zoo and grab a victory. But in a prediction that probably lots of people are making, I think Petersen will have the Huskies battling for Pac-12 titles in short order.
Oregon 31, Washington 24
Game of the week: No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Florida State, 8 p.m. ABC
Florida State has struggled this year but is still undefeated and has not scored fewer than 37 points with Jameis Winston under center. And that embattled kid sometimes seems to block out distractions the best when there are many swirling around him. That is certainly the case right now. I was feeling pretty good about the Fighting Irish up until last week when they found themselves in a home battle with struggling North Carolina. Notre Dame ended up winning, 50-43, but that defense seems vulnerable and I think that and a home crowd will be the difference for the Seminoles as they pull away late. Notre Dame has yet to play a true road game (it faced Purdue in Indianapolis and Syracuse at the New York Giants/Jets stadium).
Florida State 38, Notre Dame 27
No. 23 Stanford at No. 17 Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. ESPN
A big game for the Pac-12 title race. The Cardinal is 2-1 in the conference, tied with one loss in the North division with Oregon and Washington. ASU is 2-1, too, tied with one loss in the South with USC, Arizona State, and Utah. Stanford has just two losses this year by a combined six points, 13-10 to USC, and 17-14 to Notre Dame. ASU's lone loss was a blowout, 62-27, at the hands of UCLA at home. In their last game, Oct. 4, the Sun Devils got on track with an upset road win over USC, 38-34. I like ASU in this game since it has had a bye week to prepare.
Arizona State 20, Stanford 17
Virginia at Duke, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Fifty-six to zero. Let me say that again. Fifty-six to zero. That is the combined score of the past two second halves that Virginia has played against Duke. Absolutely terrible and something that must change if the Cavaliers plan on beating the Blue Devils on the road Saturday. That included a 17-14 halftime lead for UVa two years in ago in Durham and a 22-7 lead in Charlottesville last season which was 22-0 before a late first-half TD by Duke. Whether that is coaching adjustments being made by Duke and not by Virginia or the players letting up -- it must change.
Overall, Duke has had UVa's number in recent years, winning five of six games dating back to 2008. Duke's 31-3 win in Durham that year broke a 25ish-game ACC losing streak. In 2010 in Durham, Virginia lost 55-48 after holding a late, 48-47 lead before giving up a 4th-and-20 conversion to the Blue Devils which eventually led to them scoring the final touchdown. Then there was that debacle two years ago I already mentioned. Duke went on to a 42-17 win in that contest.
There has been some trash talking from the Blue Devils this week, too. For some reason, Duke does not like UVa and I think the feeling is becoming mutual. I think Duke has used success against Virginia in recent seasons as a springboard for ACC success and thus, the Blue Devils feel like they
So how does the game break down in matchups? Duke has run the ball a lot this year and mainly uses three backs. Freshman Shaun Wilson has gained 466 yards on 43 carries, an incredible 10.8 yards per carry. He has notched four touchdowns. Josh Snead (256 yards, two TDs) and Shaquille Powell (200 yards, two TDs) are the other two main tailbacks for Duke. QB Anthony Boone (148 yards, three TDs) is also a capable runner. Passing, Boone has completed 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,186 yards, eight touchdowns, and three picks. Jamison Crowder, one of the most prolific receivers in Duke and ACC history, is the main beneficiary of Boone's throws with 32 receptions for 372 yards and a pair of scores. Max McCaffrey (23 catches, 236 yards, three TDs) and Issac Blakeney (19 catches, 212 yards, three TDs) are also solid contributors for the Blue Devils. Duke is only 93rd in the country in passing but is 24th in rushing. Virginia needs to force Duke to pass to win the game and then make sure it knows where Crowder is at all times.
Defensively, Duke is only giving up 15.5 points per game. It is important, though, to look at who the Blue Devils have played that have helped them achieve a 5-1 record and sterling defensive stat. A 31-25 win over Georgia Tech last week was impressive, but before that, Duke downed the likes of Elon, Troy, Kansas, and Tulane. Then Miami handed Duke its first loss with a decisive 26-10 win in Florida. Yardage wise, Duke does not fare as well as it does in the points category. Duke is ranked 60th overall in yardage allowed, 100th against the run, but 17th against the pass. That to me should signal a run-heavy game from Virginia. Hopefully we see lots of Kevin Parks, Khalek Shepherd, and Taquan Mizzell. Greyson Lambert is probably starting at QB after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. He could be rusty and that would be all the more reason for the Cavaliers to concentrate on running the ball and pick spots with safe passes to begin the game.
One interesting aspect of the game to watch will be turnovers. Virginia is tied for second in the country in gaining turnovers with 19. Duke, however, does not turn the ball over much (only five times this year). Duke is actually better on turnover margin than the 'Hoos because Virginia has also turned it over 14 times for a plus-five margin. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have created 12 turnovers for a margin of plus seven.
Duke has not proven too much this season. The four wins at the beginning of the year came against unimpressive teams. The victory over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech was really nice and tells me that Duke's defense probably is pretty good compared to years past. However, the result wasn't that unsurprising in that lots of teams that have byes before playing the Yellow Jackets (like Duke had) play well because they are able to figure out the Georgia Tech offense and really buckle down on 'D' with the extra week of preparation.
With that said, I just can't shake the bad feeling of recent Duke games and have a feeling this contest will break the wrong way for the Wahoos. I hope I am incorrect, because what lies in front of the team is a huge opportunity. If Virginia wins, it will have at least a two-game lead in the division on every team except for Georgia Tech (unless GT loses to UNC, in which case the Jackets would indeed have two ACC losses). If Virginia loses, though, it would have one conference loss along with Duke, Pittsburgh, and GT if it beats UNC. A victory would really put Virginia in the driver's seat for a division title, unfathomable at the beginning of the season.
But, like I said, Duke just doesn't sit right with me. I feel like something is going to go wrong at the wrong moment and UVa is coming away with a loss. In the end, I think a key big play or turnover will go Duke's way, or Virginia might just end up kicking too many field goals and not scoring enough touchdowns. Ready, waiting, and hoping for the guys to prove me wrong as they have already on a couple occasions this season.
Duke 27, Virginia 23
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