Miami at Virginia Tech pick

Picks record
Season: 39-21; last week: 7-3

Miami at Virginia Tech, 8 p.m. ESPN

Virginia Tech hosts Miami tonight in what is pretty much an eliminator game in the ACC Coastal Division. The loser will have three conference losses. Sure, if the loser then wins out, it will be 5-3 in the ACC and in a mediocre division, that might win it, but the probability would be pretty small and these teams would not have tiebreaker situations going in their favor. Miami's conference losses are to Georgia Tech and Louisville. The Hokies' ACC losses are to Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech, both division losses which are worse. So Tech's backs are against the wall a little more than the Hurricanes' but both teams really need this victory.

Miami has looked pretty good in a few games this season, losing only by 10 at Nebraska. The Hurricanes also held Duke to 10 points in a 22-10 win (Duke's only loss of the season) and scored 55 points two weeks ago against Cincinnati ('Canes were on bye last week). They have had some dud performances, though, too (31-13 loss to Louisville, 28-17 loss at Georgia Tech). Most of Miami's problems have come on the road this season, where it has lost by an average of 13 points. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya has played pretty well for Miami, completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,806 yards, 16 touchdowns, and nine picks. He's thrown three or more touchdowns in three of seven games. Duke Johnson has rushed for 787 yards and six touchdowns for an average of 6.2 yards per carry.

Virginia Tech has been stout against the run this season and will try to bottle up Johnson and force Kaaya to beat it down the field. The Hokies, however, will be without defensive tackle Luther Maddy who is out for the rest of the season with a right knee injury and that is a blow to their defense. Miami's defense is pretty solid this year, but I just think that somehow Frank Beamer is going to rally his troops, the team will find some early momentum and the crowd will get behind the team. Marshawn Williams will probably be available for the Hokies at running back and that should help the offense and QB Michael Brewer, who sometimes tends to try to do too much. I think the Hokies come together and scrape together a win at Lane Stadium on a Thursday night to keep division title hopes on life support.
Virginia Tech 24, Miami 21

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