NFL picks

College picks record (no picks this week): 82-39; last week: 6-2

NFL picks record: 32-26; last week: 0-0; two weeks ago: 4-4

Steelers (8-5) at Falcons (5-8), 1 p.m. CBS

In the pick'em league I am in on ESPN.com, this was one of the hardest games for me to pick. The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites, but have alternated wins and losses since beating Baltimore soundly in Week 9 then turning around and losing to the Jets of all teams the next week on the road. Last week, Pittsburgh was locked in a close battle with Cincinnati before a turnover by the Bengals launched the Steelers to an eventual 42-21 victory. The Falcons were getting blown out by the Packers in the first half but battled back and lost by just six at Green Bay. Atlanta has been decent at home this year, but not great. I like Pittsburgh's strong run game to take advantage of Atlanta's 32nd-ranked rush defense in a close game.

Steelers 34, Falcons 31

Redskins (3-10) at Giants (4-9), 1 p.m. FOX

Both of these teams are well out of the playoff hunt and there's just pride on the line. Washington might not have much left after five straight losses including a 24-0 home shutout against the Rams last week. The last bit of drama in D.C. is whether RG3 or Jay Gruden will be fired (or neither). However, the Giants were on a seven-game losing streak (that included a comeback loss vs. the Jags) before pounding the Titans last week. New York beat Washington at Landover 45-14 earlier this year.

Giants 28, Redskins 14

Dolphins (7-6) at Patriots (10-3), 1 p.m. CBS

The Dolphins beat the Patriots, 33-20, in Week 1 in Miami and I'm sure New England wants to get revenge for that. The Dolphins were locked in a tight game at home last week but ended up losing to the Ravens by a couple TDs. The Pats shutdown the Chargers offense and won in San Diego, 23-14, bouncing back from a loss at Lambeau the week before.

Patriots 28, Dolphins 20

Packers (10-3) at Bills (7-6), 1 p.m. FOX

Buffalo has a tough defense and traditionally plays inspired at home. The Packers defense was porous last week and last time on the road, Green Bay escaped Minnesota with a 24-21 victory. In fact, the Packers have only won one road game this year by double digits (Chicago) and have lost two others (Detroit and New Orleans). I don't think it will equal an upset, but the Bills might certainly keep it close.

Packers 28, Bills 23

Bengals (8-4-1) at Browns (7-6), 1 p.m. FOX
The Browns need a boost on offense and so they are starting Johnny Manziel at quarterback. I think it will help at home against a rival that they beat, 24-3, in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Even with a shaky Brian Hoyer, the Browns almost won vs. the Colts last week but Indy came back behind Andrew Luck to win, 25-24. The Bengals are ranked below 20th in both rushing and passing defense this season, so I think Manziel should be able to have a pretty solid game.

Browns 23, Bengals 20

Broncos (10-3) at Chargers (8-5), 4:05 p.m. CBS

Tough couple weeks at home for the Chargers as they get the Broncos a week after losing to the Patriots. I expect Philip Rivers and the Chargers to fight as they often do late in the year but Peyton Manning will be too much in the end.

Broncos 28, Chargers 24

49ers (7-6) at Seahawks (9-4), 4:25 p.m. FOX

San Francisco kind of bottomed out last week losing to the Raiders in Oakland by double digits. Before that, the Niners struggled in wins over sub-par teams the Giants, Redskins, and Saints. Additionally, just two weeks ago, Seattle beat San Francisco at its brand-spanking new stadium, 19-3. I expect the Seahawks to put the final nail in the 49ers' payoff hopes this week.

Seahawks 31, San Francisco 10

Coming later Sunday: Cowboys at Eagles pick