Before I get into the picks, some house keeping ...
Overall NFL picks record: 43-32; wild-card record: 3-1; Week 17 record: 0-0; Week 16 record: 3-2
Saturday's games
Ravens (11-6) at Patriots (12-4), 4:35 p.m. NBC
Baltimore wasn't supposed to be here according to most people that thought the Steelers would beat the Ravens last week. But here they are to haunt the Patriots again. The Ravens have beaten the Patriots two out of the last three times the teams have met in the playoffs and should have won all three. Joe Flacco always seems to step up at playoff time and did so last week against the Steelers, completing 18 of 29 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. New England sat out last week's wild-card round and basically Week 17 as well as the Pats sat their starters against the Bills in a loss. Before that, New England won 11 of 12 games, with its only loss coming by five points at Green Bay. If New England can shake the rust off early, it should gain the upper hand. Baltimore has had some recent success against the Patriots in the playoffs, but Baltimore's defense isn't as strong as it was during those meetings. And New England is packing a better defense this year to go along with Tom Brady and the always-solid offense.
Patriots 27, Ravens 17
Panthers (8-8-1) at Seahawks (12-4), 8:15 p.m. FOX
Carolina is like mini-Seattle, just not quite as good. The defense is solid, the quarterback is a scrambler, and the team lacks household names for offensive playmakers. The question is can the Panthers pull off what many would consider the biggest upset of the weekend? Carolina has now won five straight games and has held each of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Panthers have scored 27.6 points per game in those five contests, too. The problem is the quality of those opponents have been lackluster: Saints, Bucs, Browns, Falcons, Cardinals. Seattle would not be confused for any of those squads the past month. The Seahawks are on an amazing run in which they have allowed just 39 points total (!) over the past six games. That's 6.5 per game for those of you keeping score at home. The offense hasn't been spectacular, scoring more than 24 points in only one of those games, but it hasn't had to be. At home, Seattle's defense will be great and the crowd will be whipped in a frenzy. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch should be able to do enough on offense. Carolina has scored only one offensive TD in the past three meetings with Seattle, including a 13-9 loss in Charlotte on Oct. 26. Quirky stat: The last time the defending Super Bowl champ has won a postseason game was 2005.
Seahawks 24, Panthers 9
Sunday's games
Colts (12-5) at Broncos (12-4), 4:40 p.m. CBS
These teams met way back in Week 1 in Denver, and the Broncos won 31-24, but I think that game could give us some insight into this one even though it was a few months ago. Denver took a 24-7 lead, but the Colts got back into it behind the arm of Andrew Luck, who threw for 370 yards and two TDs, but also two INTs. Peyton Manning accumulated 269 yards and three TDs with no picks. The game kind of mirrored the seasons both teams had. The Colts started the year 0-2 but quickly righted the ship to get to 5-2. They still finished behind the Broncos in the AFC standings. Denver bolted out to a 6-1 record, then lost two of three games in the middle of the year before finishing on a hot streak, going 5-1, despite some worries about Peyton Manning's health, namely his arm strength. Denver's defense is better than last year, though, and the run game has been solid with breakout star C.J. Anderson carrying the load most recently. Ronnie Hillman has also been a contributor. All of this means Manning hasn't had to shoulder as much of the load for the team this year, and the Broncos are better because of that. The Colts defense has been shaky this year at times, especially against the run, meaning the Broncos have a couple different ways they can try to beat them on offense. I like Denver in a game similar to the one that started the 2014 campaign.
Broncos 27, Colts 21
Cowboys (13-4) at Packers (12-4), 1:05 p.m. FOX
The Cowboys have had a fantastic season and have surpassed my expectations and most everyone else's, too. My gut is telling me two things for this game. One is that the road warriors' streak of eight wins away from Arlington will come to an end, that Dallas has met its match in Green Bay and will lose to the Packers, who are undefeated at Lambeau this year. Another part of me is saying that the Cowboys offense will not have as hard a time moving the ball as it did on Detroit's fantastic defense a week ago and Aaron Rodgers is a hobbled QB for the Packers, giving the Cowboys not only a fighting chance, but a great chance to pull a win out of the cold. I think this will all make for a very interesting and very tight game. Dallas needs to follow the formula is has all year. Try to get
DeMarco Murray going in the run game (easier said than done the past several weeks) and then pick their spots for the passing game. The Packers defense has been vulnerable this season, but underrated if you ask me. Statistically, Green Bay ranked 10th against the pass but only 23rd against the run. It's worth mentioning, though, that Green Bay gave up 153.5 rushing yards per game during the first eight games of the season, but that figure went down to 86.4 ypg for the final eight games after the Packers moved linebacker Clay Matthews inside. If Dallas can get the offense rolling, it can eat up the clock and keep Rodgers off the field. Rodgers has a partially torn calf muscle and should be limited in his mobility, not the best of news for a QB who loves to roll out of the pocket and throw TDs. The Packers are expected to work more out of the shotgun to give Rodgers a head start and it wouldn't surprise me if Green Bay tests the Dallas run defense with a decent dose of Eddie Lacy, especially on a cold day that will be around 20 degrees. I think this will be a fantastic game and a close one, but I am picking against my Cowboys. Dallas is well-suited to steal a victory out of the Frozen Tundra, though, given its balanced attack on offense and an improving defense.
Packers 27, Cowboys 26
Overall NFL picks record: 43-32; wild-card record: 3-1; Week 17 record: 0-0; Week 16 record: 3-2
Saturday's games
Ravens (11-6) at Patriots (12-4), 4:35 p.m. NBC
Baltimore wasn't supposed to be here according to most people that thought the Steelers would beat the Ravens last week. But here they are to haunt the Patriots again. The Ravens have beaten the Patriots two out of the last three times the teams have met in the playoffs and should have won all three. Joe Flacco always seems to step up at playoff time and did so last week against the Steelers, completing 18 of 29 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. New England sat out last week's wild-card round and basically Week 17 as well as the Pats sat their starters against the Bills in a loss. Before that, New England won 11 of 12 games, with its only loss coming by five points at Green Bay. If New England can shake the rust off early, it should gain the upper hand. Baltimore has had some recent success against the Patriots in the playoffs, but Baltimore's defense isn't as strong as it was during those meetings. And New England is packing a better defense this year to go along with Tom Brady and the always-solid offense.
Patriots 27, Ravens 17
Panthers (8-8-1) at Seahawks (12-4), 8:15 p.m. FOX
Carolina is like mini-Seattle, just not quite as good. The defense is solid, the quarterback is a scrambler, and the team lacks household names for offensive playmakers. The question is can the Panthers pull off what many would consider the biggest upset of the weekend? Carolina has now won five straight games and has held each of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Panthers have scored 27.6 points per game in those five contests, too. The problem is the quality of those opponents have been lackluster: Saints, Bucs, Browns, Falcons, Cardinals. Seattle would not be confused for any of those squads the past month. The Seahawks are on an amazing run in which they have allowed just 39 points total (!) over the past six games. That's 6.5 per game for those of you keeping score at home. The offense hasn't been spectacular, scoring more than 24 points in only one of those games, but it hasn't had to be. At home, Seattle's defense will be great and the crowd will be whipped in a frenzy. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch should be able to do enough on offense. Carolina has scored only one offensive TD in the past three meetings with Seattle, including a 13-9 loss in Charlotte on Oct. 26. Quirky stat: The last time the defending Super Bowl champ has won a postseason game was 2005.
Seahawks 24, Panthers 9
Sunday's games
Colts (12-5) at Broncos (12-4), 4:40 p.m. CBS
These teams met way back in Week 1 in Denver, and the Broncos won 31-24, but I think that game could give us some insight into this one even though it was a few months ago. Denver took a 24-7 lead, but the Colts got back into it behind the arm of Andrew Luck, who threw for 370 yards and two TDs, but also two INTs. Peyton Manning accumulated 269 yards and three TDs with no picks. The game kind of mirrored the seasons both teams had. The Colts started the year 0-2 but quickly righted the ship to get to 5-2. They still finished behind the Broncos in the AFC standings. Denver bolted out to a 6-1 record, then lost two of three games in the middle of the year before finishing on a hot streak, going 5-1, despite some worries about Peyton Manning's health, namely his arm strength. Denver's defense is better than last year, though, and the run game has been solid with breakout star C.J. Anderson carrying the load most recently. Ronnie Hillman has also been a contributor. All of this means Manning hasn't had to shoulder as much of the load for the team this year, and the Broncos are better because of that. The Colts defense has been shaky this year at times, especially against the run, meaning the Broncos have a couple different ways they can try to beat them on offense. I like Denver in a game similar to the one that started the 2014 campaign.
Broncos 27, Colts 21
Cowboys (13-4) at Packers (12-4), 1:05 p.m. FOX
The Cowboys have had a fantastic season and have surpassed my expectations and most everyone else's, too. My gut is telling me two things for this game. One is that the road warriors' streak of eight wins away from Arlington will come to an end, that Dallas has met its match in Green Bay and will lose to the Packers, who are undefeated at Lambeau this year. Another part of me is saying that the Cowboys offense will not have as hard a time moving the ball as it did on Detroit's fantastic defense a week ago and Aaron Rodgers is a hobbled QB for the Packers, giving the Cowboys not only a fighting chance, but a great chance to pull a win out of the cold. I think this will all make for a very interesting and very tight game. Dallas needs to follow the formula is has all year. Try to get
Packers 27, Cowboys 26
I knew you'd come to your senses eventually. GO PACK GO! :D
ReplyDeleteHa did I ever say I thought we would win? Gotta separate that from your fandom as you know. I am feeling more confident than I normally would as a Cowboys fan, though, in this position in the playoffs at GB.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and if I were picking this week, I'd pick the Seahawks. What I think vs. what I want.
ReplyDelete