No. 2 Virginia at No. 16 Louisville, 6:30 p.m. ESPN
Virginia wrapped up a second consecutive ACC regular-season championship Monday by downing penalty-barraged Syracuse, 59-47. As such, the Cavaliers own the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament next week in Greensboro, N.C.
That means the 'Hoos aren't playing for a whole lot at Louisville on Saturday night. What's worse, it looked like Justin Anderson might have had a chance at playing after recovering from his finger surgery. However, he had an appendectomy Thursday night and is officially ruled out against the Cardinals. Hopefully he will be back for some of the ACC tournament, but at the very least, the NCAA tournament.
Louisville (23-7, 11-6), meanwhile, is still trying to lock up the fourth seed in the ACC tournament, and it does that by beating UVa. A top-four seed would mean the Cardinals would receive a double bye in the ACC tournament, not playing until next Thursday.
Just because Louisville has more motivation than Virginia does not mean I think this will be an easy win for the Cardinals. This isn't the same Louisville team that faced UVa in early February and got beat, 52-47, at John Paul Jones Arena. Chris Jones, the team's third-leading scorer, has been kicked off the team and is being investigated for sexual assault. Jones was a key player in 26 games this year and averaged 13.7 points, four rebounds, 3.6 assists, and two steals per game this season. Against Virginia in the first meeting, he had 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting (just 1 of 6 from 3) to go along with five rebounds and a steal. Terry Rozier led the Cardinals with 16 points and Montrezl Harrell had 12. Wayne Blackshear finished with eight and no one else scored for Louisville. It's worth noting this is the game when Anderson hurt his finger. He was not playing well in the game, only scoring two points in the first half on 1-of-9 shooting. UVa was led by Malcolm Brogdon's 15, Anthony Gill's 10, and Darion Atkins' and Mike Tobey's nine each. The fact that Anderson did not factor in a lot for the win has to be a good sign for the 'Hoos in this second meeting.
The Cardinals have been limited offensively without Jones, who got kicked off the team after scoring 17 in a 55-53 win over Miami. They've gone 2-1 since then with wins over Georgia Tech (barely, took a big comeback) and FSU and a loss at home to Notre Dame. They scored 81 against the Seminoles but just 52 and 59 against the Yellow Jackets and Fighting Irish, respectively. He also did not play one other game this year when he was suspended and the Cardinals lost that game to Syracuse on the road, scoring 59.
If Louisville scores 60, it probably has a good chance to win, but I don't know if it can do it. UVa has been great defensively, maybe better without Anderson for some reason. No doubt, Virginia's offense has been less efficient, but it has managed. Virginia scored only two points in the opening 14 minutes against Syracuse but finished with 59, actually a pretty blistering pace of 87.7 points over 40 minutes if Virginia had not decided to take a vacation at the beginning of the game. That final 26 minutes, paired with 69- and 70-point efforts against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, respectively, has me hopeful that UVa's offense has turned a corner sans Anderson. Getting him back will hopefully help the cause even more.
UVa is not completely without motivation, too. Its spot in the ACC tournament is secure, but the Cavaliers are still trying to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and competition is strong for those four spots. UVa could drop off the No. 1 seed line if it loses, even though its record would still be stellar at 28-2. Kentucky is likely to get one No. 1 seed at 30-0, even if it were to lose to Florida and then in its first SEC tournament game, both of which are unlikely to happen anyway. Duke (27-3), Villanova (28-2), Wisconsin (27-3), Arizona (26-3), and maybe even Gonzaga (29-2) are all possibilities for No. 1 seeds if they win out, though Gonzaga might have blown its chance by losing at home to BYU last Saturday. Despite a season where Virginia will end up with fewer losses than last year when it got a No. 1 seed (the Wahoos were 28-6 after the ACC tournament), a No. 1 seed for this year is not a sure thing -- yet.
If Jones was playing in this game, I would give Louisville the edge. It needs the victory more and is playing at home. But the Cardinals' offense needs to get going and UVa has already played without Anderson for one half against Louisville, and then seven games after, winning every one.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
Virginia wrapped up a second consecutive ACC regular-season championship Monday by downing penalty-barraged Syracuse, 59-47. As such, the Cavaliers own the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament next week in Greensboro, N.C.
That means the 'Hoos aren't playing for a whole lot at Louisville on Saturday night. What's worse, it looked like Justin Anderson might have had a chance at playing after recovering from his finger surgery. However, he had an appendectomy Thursday night and is officially ruled out against the Cardinals. Hopefully he will be back for some of the ACC tournament, but at the very least, the NCAA tournament.
Louisville (23-7, 11-6), meanwhile, is still trying to lock up the fourth seed in the ACC tournament, and it does that by beating UVa. A top-four seed would mean the Cardinals would receive a double bye in the ACC tournament, not playing until next Thursday.
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| The loss of Chris Jones has taken a good scorer off a Louisville team that scored just 47 points against UVa with him. |
The Cardinals have been limited offensively without Jones, who got kicked off the team after scoring 17 in a 55-53 win over Miami. They've gone 2-1 since then with wins over Georgia Tech (barely, took a big comeback) and FSU and a loss at home to Notre Dame. They scored 81 against the Seminoles but just 52 and 59 against the Yellow Jackets and Fighting Irish, respectively. He also did not play one other game this year when he was suspended and the Cardinals lost that game to Syracuse on the road, scoring 59.
If Louisville scores 60, it probably has a good chance to win, but I don't know if it can do it. UVa has been great defensively, maybe better without Anderson for some reason. No doubt, Virginia's offense has been less efficient, but it has managed. Virginia scored only two points in the opening 14 minutes against Syracuse but finished with 59, actually a pretty blistering pace of 87.7 points over 40 minutes if Virginia had not decided to take a vacation at the beginning of the game. That final 26 minutes, paired with 69- and 70-point efforts against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, respectively, has me hopeful that UVa's offense has turned a corner sans Anderson. Getting him back will hopefully help the cause even more.
UVa is not completely without motivation, too. Its spot in the ACC tournament is secure, but the Cavaliers are still trying to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and competition is strong for those four spots. UVa could drop off the No. 1 seed line if it loses, even though its record would still be stellar at 28-2. Kentucky is likely to get one No. 1 seed at 30-0, even if it were to lose to Florida and then in its first SEC tournament game, both of which are unlikely to happen anyway. Duke (27-3), Villanova (28-2), Wisconsin (27-3), Arizona (26-3), and maybe even Gonzaga (29-2) are all possibilities for No. 1 seeds if they win out, though Gonzaga might have blown its chance by losing at home to BYU last Saturday. Despite a season where Virginia will end up with fewer losses than last year when it got a No. 1 seed (the Wahoos were 28-6 after the ACC tournament), a No. 1 seed for this year is not a sure thing -- yet.
If Jones was playing in this game, I would give Louisville the edge. It needs the victory more and is playing at home. But the Cardinals' offense needs to get going and UVa has already played without Anderson for one half against Louisville, and then seven games after, winning every one.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
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