Last week: 3-4 Friday: 1-3 Overall: 76-37
This is one of my favorite Saturdays of the year because of all the rivalry games. Many of them have cool names, and some are significant games, while some of them are not. This is not an exhaustive list of the games at all. But I include the name of the game when I know it, or try to find out what it is. The Florida-FSU game is not called the Sunshine State Showdown on the series' Wikipedia page, but I am quite certain I have seen that name elsewhere. Anyway, on to the picks.
The Game
No. 8 Ohio State at No. 10 Michigan, Noon ABC
At stake: Technically, nothing. But if Michigan State trips up later in the day vs. Penn State, the winner of this game will win the Big Ten East division and will face Iowa in the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis next Saturday. Ohio State has dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, winning 10 of 11. The Buckeyes started a winning streak against the Wolverines the same year the Hokies began one against the Cavaliers -- 2004. Michigan was able to win one game, though, in this stretch, unlike UVa, with that victory coming in 2011, 40-34. There have been some classics and close games since '04. OSU won, 25-21, in 2005. In 2006, with OSU No. 1 and UM No. 2, the "Game of the Century" went to the Buckeyes, 42-39. In 2012, OSU won, 26-21, and the next year, it won, 42-41. Last year, the Buckeyes won, 42-28, on their way to Big Ten and national championships. Brady Hoke was fired as the Wolverines' coach following the game. Jim Harbaugh was hired to his lead alma mater and has done an outstanding job this season. If not for a fluke play against MSU, Michigan would be 10-1 and be very much in the playoff conversation. That loss was its second, though, so Michigan is probably just the spoiler here. OSU is the defending national champion but never quite flipped the switch. It didn't face a ranked team all year until last week, and it lost to MSU, 17-14. After the game, star RB Ezekiel Elliott criticized the coaches' play calling and game plan. He apologized this week but still, the damage had been done. With a win and some chaos, OSU can still get into the playoff conversation, but at Michigan, I like the Wolverines under Harbaugh to take down the Buckeyes.
Michigan 23, Ohio State 20
Penn State at No. 5 Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
At stake: As I said above, if MSU wins, it wins the Big Ten East and goes to the league's title game to face Iowa. The Spartans are No. 5 in the playoff rankings, and Iowa is No. 4, so presumably, if MSU beats PSU and then Iowa, it would be in the playoff. So this is a huge game for the Spartans, but not so much for the Nittany Lions,who have had a good year anyway and are 7-4. The pressure won't matter to the Spartans and they win.
Michigan State 27, Penn State 17
No. 14 North Carolina at N.C. State, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
At stake: UNC has already won the ACC Coastal division and will face Clemson in the conference's championship next weekend. But the Tar Heels are in must-win mode if they want a chance at the playoff. Right now, that chance is slim, but it is there. UNC needs to take care of its rival, beat Clemson, and then hope lots of carnage happens today and next week. I don't think the win will come easy in this game for UNC. N.C. State won last year, 35-7, and gets to host this year. UNC's defense has improved a lot this year, the main reason for its better record. The Wolfpack has had a good season, but has mostly gotten by on an easy schedule. The 7-4 Wolfpack has not beaten an FBS team with a winning record, and only two of the teams they have beaten could even become bowl eligible: ODU and South Alabama both have five wins and chances at a sixth. UNC went into the lions' den last week in Blacksburg and came away with a hard-fought victory against an emotional Virginia Tech team trying to win its home finale for Frank Beamer. I expect UNC to struggle a little bit, but was impressed with its resiliency. I like the Tar Heels to display that same toughness against the Wolfpack.
North Carolina 38, N.C. State 28
Iron Bowl
No. 2 Alabama at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. CBS
At stake: Alabama needs to only win at Auburn to take the SEC West. It would face Florida in the SEC title game next week. If the Tigers can pull off the upset, Ole Miss can win the West with a win over Mississippi State. The Rebels handed the Crimson Tide their only setback of the year way back Sept. 20, 43-37. An Auburn upset, even at home, would be pretty miraculous. The Tigers have looked nothing like the teams of the past couple seasons, as the offense has struggled and every game has been an adventure. They have six wins, barely. They needed OT to beat Jacksonville State earlier in the year. Remember what happened two years ago, the last time these two tangled at Auburn? The "Kick-6," when Alabama attempted to win the game with a field goal at the end, only to see it come up short and get returned by Auburn's Chris Davis 109 yards for an improbable TD. It'll probably take another miracle for the Tigers to win this one, and that 2013 team was good, much better than this one.
Alabama 31, Auburn 17
No. 22 UCLA at USC, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
At stake: The Pac-12 South title. The winner gets Stanford in the championship game next weekend. The Trojans have fared well under interim coach Clay Helton, going 4-2 since the firing of Steve Sarkisian. The Bruins have had a good year, but not quite as good as they had hoped. I'll go with the home team in a game where I can't see either team having a big advantage.
USC 30, UCLA 27
Egg Bowl
No. 18 Ole Miss at No. 21 Mississippi State, 7:15 p.m. ESPN2
At stake: If the Rebels win and Alabama trips up vs. Auburn, they win the SEC West. I think one half of that will come true, but 'Bama won't lose. When stacking up these two teams, the Rebels have the better resume, with wins over 'Bama, LSU, and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs lost to all of those teams.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 34
Sunshine State Showdown
No. 13 Florida State at No. 12 Florida, 7:30 p.m. ESPN
At stake: mostly just bragging rights. The Gators have an outside shot at making the playoff if they win this game and somehow shock Alabama. Most likely, they would need to face Alabama in the SEC title game for a chance at making the playoff. If they played and beat Ole Miss, I don't think that would be impressive enough to launch the Gators into the top four. I don't think it'll matter. I think the Seminoles will win this game. Florida has really struggled since losing starting QB Will Grier for the season to a suspension. Last week, UF needed OT to beat Florida Atlantic at the Swamp.
Florida State 20, Florida 17
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 9 Stanford, 7:30 p.m. Fox
At stake: playoff implications for both. Stanford, with two losses, needs help even with a win to get into the top four. Notre Dame was dropped out of the top four after struggling last week in its win over Boston College. But who's to say the Fighting Irish couldn't jump Michigan State (No. 5) if the Spartans just barely squeak by both Penn State and Iowa in the next two weeks? That's why this game is a showcase. A large Notre Dame win could translate to playoff points. Also, if MSU loses to PSU and a two-loss Michigan team beats Ohio State, Notre Dame is next in line for the No. 4 spot if Iowa then loses to Michigan in the Big Ten title contest. Head spinning yet? Don't worry, I don't think this one will matter either. The Cardinal, led by Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey and QB Kevin Hogan, is playing very good football right now. Stanford's only recent loss was two weeks ago when it was ambushed by Oregon. It will be ready for Notre Dame, which hasn't played a high-caliber opponent in a month.
Stanford 38, Notre Dame 31
Bedlam
No. 3 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ABC
At stake: the Big 12 title and playoff implications. The Sooners are in the playoff right now and just need to win to secure their spot. The Cowboys, because of last week's loss to Baylor, need a win and lots of help to make it. OU has been one of the best teams in the country since losing inexplicably to Texas in October. Last week, the Sooners were blowing out TCU when QB Baker Mayfield had to leave with a concussion. He is expected to play and that should give the Sooners the edge over the Cowboys, who have their own QB injury issues -- Mason Rudolph hurt a foot last week but is expected to play.
Oklahoma 48, Oklahoma State 38
Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
Virginia Tech at Virginia, Noon ESPNU
At stake: nationally, and in the ACC, squat, because that is what happens when both teams in a rivalry have been mired in mediocrity for four seasons. As fanbases, though, we know what is at stake. A reputation. Two streaks. Perhaps a job. It'll all get settled at Scott Stadium on an abnormally warm November day, which might be fitting, since this will be one of the more unusual entries in the series, and the game hasn't even taken place yet.
It is widely believed that both schools will be looking for head coaches after this game. Or that they
have already found said coaches and it is a matter of time before the announcements are made. The picture is much clearer in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has already announced his retirement and the Hokies will name a successor soon. The most recent reports have Memphis coach Justin Fuente becoming the head man for Tech. Those are just rumors, though, nothing is confirmed. For now, the Hokies will try to send Beamer out with a 12th straight win over the rival 'Hoos. His reputation is that of a legend at Tech, and he has owned UVa ever since George Welsh retired, suffering his only loss to the Al Groh-Mike London Cavaliers in 2003, when guys like Matt Schaub and Heath Miller led UVa to a glorious 35-21 victory in Charlottesville. Eight of the 11 wins in the streak have come by double digits. Only 2008 (17-14), 2012 (17-14), and 2014 (24-20) haven't. All of those games were in Blacksburg so the logic is easy: The Hokies have dominated in Charlottesville.
Another streak Tech is trying to keep alive is its bowl streak. It is at 22, and the Hokies want to make it 23. There are so many bowls this season, though, that even if Tech loses, it could still make a postseason game at 5-7. They don't want to leave anything to chance, however. Virginia Tech wants to leave no doubt.
Is London playing for his job? Common sense says no. His fate should already be sealed. No matter what happens, he will have wrapped up a fifth losing season in six years. That just shouldn't be good enough for any major college football program. Not one. However, the pessimistic Virginia fan that wants London gone can certainly dream up a scenario in which London stays with a victory in this game. Athletic director Craig Littlepage announced last season before this game London was returning for 2015. That was
when the team had five wins and had just beaten Miami, but Littlepage said the decision had been made prior to the Miami contest. So, apparently four wins was enough to keep London. This year, it would seem like five wins, with one being over Tech, could give Littlepage reason to keep London again. After all, a win would mean London won three of the final five games of the season. A justification could be made, saying London has turned the corner. With the easiest schedule since 2011 coming up for next year, London could very well win six next year. But a better coach might win seven, or more. If I had to choose, I think London is a goner, win or lose. (Note: That is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. I stated a long time UVa needs to move on from London. I was not trying to back track and re-think it.) He is what he is at this point, and that is a coach that won't consistently get Virginia to bowls. Attendance has been horrific recently. It is getting expensive just to keep London around. Fan apathy will be at an all-time high if he is here in 2016. Like I said, though, I don't think it happens. I think he's outta here.
As for the game itself, yes, UVa has a good chance, just like it has in recent seasons. However, a few factors do not fill me with confidence. One, Tech always treats this game like a huge game. The players always seem more ready. Now, they'll turn the intensity up a notch for Beamer's final game vs. the Cavs. Two, there will be little if any home-field advantage. There should be more Wahoos at the game, but Hokies will be there and be loud. As evidenced by the double-digit wins at UVa, playing away from Lane Stadium appears to fire up Tech even more, where it has played better during the streak. Three, Virginia's defense doesn't match up well with Tech's offense. Last year's defense? Sure. This year? Not so much. Virginia is giving up 33 ppg and not getting as many turnovers as last year. Tech's offense is nothing special, but Michael Brewer is a decent QB, and the Hokies have found consistent weapons with RB Travon McMillian, TE Bucky Hodges, and WR Isaiah Ford. Incredibly, UVa's offense might fare well against Tech's defense. I can't believe I am saying that about an offense led by coordinator Steve Fairchild vs. a defense guided by Bud Foster, but I just did. The Cavaliers have averaged 30.3 points their past four games with RBs Taquan Mizzell, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Albert Reid and WR Canaan Severin all turning into capable playmakers. And when he is allowed to relax and not be hurried, QB Matt Johns is pretty good. However, there is a catch. Faring better against the Hokies' defense under London doesn't mean much. A stat to blow you away: In five games vs. Tech under London, UVa has scored three (THREE!) offensive touchdowns (one in 2010, one in 2012, and one last year). Wow and yikes.
All that aside, for me, the game comes down to one thing. Motivation. Tech failed last week to send Beamer out a winner at home vs. UNC. I really think that Virginia would have a better chance vs. Tech had the Hokies beaten the Heels and already a) gotten to bowl eligibility, and b) given Beamer a positive final memory. Since they did neither one, they will be out for blood at Scott Stadium. No way they let Frank lose his final game to the arch-rival and snap the bowl streak in the process.
Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 17
This is one of my favorite Saturdays of the year because of all the rivalry games. Many of them have cool names, and some are significant games, while some of them are not. This is not an exhaustive list of the games at all. But I include the name of the game when I know it, or try to find out what it is. The Florida-FSU game is not called the Sunshine State Showdown on the series' Wikipedia page, but I am quite certain I have seen that name elsewhere. Anyway, on to the picks.
The Game
No. 8 Ohio State at No. 10 Michigan, Noon ABC
At stake: Technically, nothing. But if Michigan State trips up later in the day vs. Penn State, the winner of this game will win the Big Ten East division and will face Iowa in the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis next Saturday. Ohio State has dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, winning 10 of 11. The Buckeyes started a winning streak against the Wolverines the same year the Hokies began one against the Cavaliers -- 2004. Michigan was able to win one game, though, in this stretch, unlike UVa, with that victory coming in 2011, 40-34. There have been some classics and close games since '04. OSU won, 25-21, in 2005. In 2006, with OSU No. 1 and UM No. 2, the "Game of the Century" went to the Buckeyes, 42-39. In 2012, OSU won, 26-21, and the next year, it won, 42-41. Last year, the Buckeyes won, 42-28, on their way to Big Ten and national championships. Brady Hoke was fired as the Wolverines' coach following the game. Jim Harbaugh was hired to his lead alma mater and has done an outstanding job this season. If not for a fluke play against MSU, Michigan would be 10-1 and be very much in the playoff conversation. That loss was its second, though, so Michigan is probably just the spoiler here. OSU is the defending national champion but never quite flipped the switch. It didn't face a ranked team all year until last week, and it lost to MSU, 17-14. After the game, star RB Ezekiel Elliott criticized the coaches' play calling and game plan. He apologized this week but still, the damage had been done. With a win and some chaos, OSU can still get into the playoff conversation, but at Michigan, I like the Wolverines under Harbaugh to take down the Buckeyes.
Michigan 23, Ohio State 20
Penn State at No. 5 Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
At stake: As I said above, if MSU wins, it wins the Big Ten East and goes to the league's title game to face Iowa. The Spartans are No. 5 in the playoff rankings, and Iowa is No. 4, so presumably, if MSU beats PSU and then Iowa, it would be in the playoff. So this is a huge game for the Spartans, but not so much for the Nittany Lions,who have had a good year anyway and are 7-4. The pressure won't matter to the Spartans and they win.
Michigan State 27, Penn State 17
No. 14 North Carolina at N.C. State, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
At stake: UNC has already won the ACC Coastal division and will face Clemson in the conference's championship next weekend. But the Tar Heels are in must-win mode if they want a chance at the playoff. Right now, that chance is slim, but it is there. UNC needs to take care of its rival, beat Clemson, and then hope lots of carnage happens today and next week. I don't think the win will come easy in this game for UNC. N.C. State won last year, 35-7, and gets to host this year. UNC's defense has improved a lot this year, the main reason for its better record. The Wolfpack has had a good season, but has mostly gotten by on an easy schedule. The 7-4 Wolfpack has not beaten an FBS team with a winning record, and only two of the teams they have beaten could even become bowl eligible: ODU and South Alabama both have five wins and chances at a sixth. UNC went into the lions' den last week in Blacksburg and came away with a hard-fought victory against an emotional Virginia Tech team trying to win its home finale for Frank Beamer. I expect UNC to struggle a little bit, but was impressed with its resiliency. I like the Tar Heels to display that same toughness against the Wolfpack.
North Carolina 38, N.C. State 28
Iron Bowl
No. 2 Alabama at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. CBS
At stake: Alabama needs to only win at Auburn to take the SEC West. It would face Florida in the SEC title game next week. If the Tigers can pull off the upset, Ole Miss can win the West with a win over Mississippi State. The Rebels handed the Crimson Tide their only setback of the year way back Sept. 20, 43-37. An Auburn upset, even at home, would be pretty miraculous. The Tigers have looked nothing like the teams of the past couple seasons, as the offense has struggled and every game has been an adventure. They have six wins, barely. They needed OT to beat Jacksonville State earlier in the year. Remember what happened two years ago, the last time these two tangled at Auburn? The "Kick-6," when Alabama attempted to win the game with a field goal at the end, only to see it come up short and get returned by Auburn's Chris Davis 109 yards for an improbable TD. It'll probably take another miracle for the Tigers to win this one, and that 2013 team was good, much better than this one.
Alabama 31, Auburn 17
No. 22 UCLA at USC, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
At stake: The Pac-12 South title. The winner gets Stanford in the championship game next weekend. The Trojans have fared well under interim coach Clay Helton, going 4-2 since the firing of Steve Sarkisian. The Bruins have had a good year, but not quite as good as they had hoped. I'll go with the home team in a game where I can't see either team having a big advantage.
USC 30, UCLA 27
Egg Bowl
No. 18 Ole Miss at No. 21 Mississippi State, 7:15 p.m. ESPN2
At stake: If the Rebels win and Alabama trips up vs. Auburn, they win the SEC West. I think one half of that will come true, but 'Bama won't lose. When stacking up these two teams, the Rebels have the better resume, with wins over 'Bama, LSU, and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs lost to all of those teams.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 34
Sunshine State Showdown
No. 13 Florida State at No. 12 Florida, 7:30 p.m. ESPN
At stake: mostly just bragging rights. The Gators have an outside shot at making the playoff if they win this game and somehow shock Alabama. Most likely, they would need to face Alabama in the SEC title game for a chance at making the playoff. If they played and beat Ole Miss, I don't think that would be impressive enough to launch the Gators into the top four. I don't think it'll matter. I think the Seminoles will win this game. Florida has really struggled since losing starting QB Will Grier for the season to a suspension. Last week, UF needed OT to beat Florida Atlantic at the Swamp.
Florida State 20, Florida 17
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 9 Stanford, 7:30 p.m. Fox
At stake: playoff implications for both. Stanford, with two losses, needs help even with a win to get into the top four. Notre Dame was dropped out of the top four after struggling last week in its win over Boston College. But who's to say the Fighting Irish couldn't jump Michigan State (No. 5) if the Spartans just barely squeak by both Penn State and Iowa in the next two weeks? That's why this game is a showcase. A large Notre Dame win could translate to playoff points. Also, if MSU loses to PSU and a two-loss Michigan team beats Ohio State, Notre Dame is next in line for the No. 4 spot if Iowa then loses to Michigan in the Big Ten title contest. Head spinning yet? Don't worry, I don't think this one will matter either. The Cardinal, led by Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey and QB Kevin Hogan, is playing very good football right now. Stanford's only recent loss was two weeks ago when it was ambushed by Oregon. It will be ready for Notre Dame, which hasn't played a high-caliber opponent in a month.
Stanford 38, Notre Dame 31
Bedlam
No. 3 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ABC
At stake: the Big 12 title and playoff implications. The Sooners are in the playoff right now and just need to win to secure their spot. The Cowboys, because of last week's loss to Baylor, need a win and lots of help to make it. OU has been one of the best teams in the country since losing inexplicably to Texas in October. Last week, the Sooners were blowing out TCU when QB Baker Mayfield had to leave with a concussion. He is expected to play and that should give the Sooners the edge over the Cowboys, who have their own QB injury issues -- Mason Rudolph hurt a foot last week but is expected to play.
Oklahoma 48, Oklahoma State 38
Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
Virginia Tech at Virginia, Noon ESPNU
At stake: nationally, and in the ACC, squat, because that is what happens when both teams in a rivalry have been mired in mediocrity for four seasons. As fanbases, though, we know what is at stake. A reputation. Two streaks. Perhaps a job. It'll all get settled at Scott Stadium on an abnormally warm November day, which might be fitting, since this will be one of the more unusual entries in the series, and the game hasn't even taken place yet.
It is widely believed that both schools will be looking for head coaches after this game. Or that they
Another streak Tech is trying to keep alive is its bowl streak. It is at 22, and the Hokies want to make it 23. There are so many bowls this season, though, that even if Tech loses, it could still make a postseason game at 5-7. They don't want to leave anything to chance, however. Virginia Tech wants to leave no doubt.
Is London playing for his job? Common sense says no. His fate should already be sealed. No matter what happens, he will have wrapped up a fifth losing season in six years. That just shouldn't be good enough for any major college football program. Not one. However, the pessimistic Virginia fan that wants London gone can certainly dream up a scenario in which London stays with a victory in this game. Athletic director Craig Littlepage announced last season before this game London was returning for 2015. That was
As for the game itself, yes, UVa has a good chance, just like it has in recent seasons. However, a few factors do not fill me with confidence. One, Tech always treats this game like a huge game. The players always seem more ready. Now, they'll turn the intensity up a notch for Beamer's final game vs. the Cavs. Two, there will be little if any home-field advantage. There should be more Wahoos at the game, but Hokies will be there and be loud. As evidenced by the double-digit wins at UVa, playing away from Lane Stadium appears to fire up Tech even more, where it has played better during the streak. Three, Virginia's defense doesn't match up well with Tech's offense. Last year's defense? Sure. This year? Not so much. Virginia is giving up 33 ppg and not getting as many turnovers as last year. Tech's offense is nothing special, but Michael Brewer is a decent QB, and the Hokies have found consistent weapons with RB Travon McMillian, TE Bucky Hodges, and WR Isaiah Ford. Incredibly, UVa's offense might fare well against Tech's defense. I can't believe I am saying that about an offense led by coordinator Steve Fairchild vs. a defense guided by Bud Foster, but I just did. The Cavaliers have averaged 30.3 points their past four games with RBs Taquan Mizzell, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Albert Reid and WR Canaan Severin all turning into capable playmakers. And when he is allowed to relax and not be hurried, QB Matt Johns is pretty good. However, there is a catch. Faring better against the Hokies' defense under London doesn't mean much. A stat to blow you away: In five games vs. Tech under London, UVa has scored three (THREE!) offensive touchdowns (one in 2010, one in 2012, and one last year). Wow and yikes.
All that aside, for me, the game comes down to one thing. Motivation. Tech failed last week to send Beamer out a winner at home vs. UNC. I really think that Virginia would have a better chance vs. Tech had the Hokies beaten the Heels and already a) gotten to bowl eligibility, and b) given Beamer a positive final memory. Since they did neither one, they will be out for blood at Scott Stadium. No way they let Frank lose his final game to the arch-rival and snap the bowl streak in the process.
Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 17
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