I am going to attempt to do two things in this post. First, talk about some things I saw in Virginia's loss to George Washington on Monday night. Second, I will do my game-by-game schedule predictions like I have done every year since the 2010-11 season. Problem is, I don't think I have seen UVa lose before making those predictions, whether that be because I do the predictions before the first game or because, like last year, Virginia coasted to two easy wins before I did them last year. I am going to try to make them as if the GW game does not affect me. Obviously, that is difficult to do, so take the predictions with a grain of salt.
George Washington 73, No. 6 Virginia 68
Virginia has fought hard for respect the past couple seasons. I think it has it now, based on preseason expectations. With a No. 6 preseason ranking based on reputation, I think the Cavaliers may have been a tad overrated. That would make what the GW students were chanting correct, however I have never understood that chant because it devalues their own team's victory. Anyway, I digress.
I still think Virginia is a very good team and will have a good year, but it has work to do. The team did not appear ready for the intensity that the Colonials brought to the court. I'm not sure why. I don't know their home record, but apparently GW has been a very good home team in recent seasons. Last year, it won 22 games and two year ago, went to the NCAA tournament and won 24 games. So this is a quality team that will almost no doubt now receive votes for the top 25. Also, this was easily the Colonials' biggest non-conference game. This is the kind of win they needed to build their resume with an eye toward March. Our guys did not look ready, and they paid for it. Some fans also observed that after taking a 6-0 lead, the 'Hoos relaxed. Whatever the reason, they need to realize they will get lots of teams' best shot every night. They are now the hunted, not the hunter.
This team misses Justin Anderson. Monday night's game reminded me of some at the end of last season against North Carolina (71-67 loss), even the Belmont win a little, and to a lesser extent, the Michigan State loss (both offenses were better Monday than in that third-round NCAA tourney game, though). Anderson played in those games, but he was a lesser version of himself who could not hit 3s like he did earlier in the year. Through two games, Virginia's ability to make 3-pointers is concerning. Against Morgan State, it made 5 of 18 and it converted 5 of 20 at GW. Making 5 3s is not that uncommon for the 'Hoos, but the percentage and efficiency needs to be better. I thought the Cavs took some ill-timed shots last night and rushed things. They might be getting used to the new 30-second shot clock. If they just bring the ball up the court with a little jog instead of walking, they should not feel rushed once they get into their offense.
Another place UVa misses Anderson is in the energy department. Last year, without him, the team looked listless at times. Last night, it seemed the same way. I already said that GW's intensity level was much higher than the 'Hoos'. GW wanted it more. Anderson was Virginia's heart and soul in a lot of ways with his fire and emotion. He got fans and players fired up. The cool, calm, stone-faced I'll-kill-you-with-confidence thing that guys like Malcolm Brogdon project is really cool when it is working, but annoying when the team looks flat and is losing. It would not hurt if someone emerges as an emotions-on-their-sleeve leader.
This team misses Darion Atkins. He blossomed into a nice all-around player last year and his abilities as a defender are especially missed. He could block shots and was really good at moving his feet down low and also at hedging on picks at the top of the key. Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey are not as good at defense as he was. Isaiah Wilkins is a guy who is lanky and energetic like Atkins, but when he came in off the bench last night, he looked lost. He also fumbled the ball away on offense. When Jack Salt came in, he actually held up better than I thought he would. I did not think he would be ready for a big-time game like that, but he looked the part and had a really nice-looking block. Maybe he is someone that can emerge and actually play major minutes and be a solid post defender.
I don't know if Virginia was robbed by the refs, but if the zebras keep up their whistle rate, UVa
needs to do a better job and take advantage. If the Pack-Line really is rendered less effective this year because of the new emphasis on freedom of movement for offensive players, then UVa needs to get on board, attack the rim more, and score more points. Monday night, the Colonials took 28 free throws and made 23. Virginia took 16 and made 13. Whether you think Virginia was called for ticky-tack fouls or not, you can't deny that GW attacked the rim more and was more active in the paint. Virginia was a terrific foul-shooting team last year and needs to use that and get to the line more. They are the easiest points to score during the game. They will be made even more important for Virginia if it can't prove to be a good 3-point shooting team. There was an emphasis on fouls the past two seasons at the beginning of each year as well. Ultimately, the refs calmed down and things returned to normal, so there is no guarantee that the high foul rate will continue and that Virginia will continue finding it hard to play tough defense.
Not everything was bad Monday. Brogdon, after a quiet game vs. Morgan State (five points) and a quiet first half vs. the Colonials, showed his All-American form and that he can take over a game in the second half. He saw Virginia struggling and put it upon himself to will the team to victory. He was unsuccessful, but it was great to see him break out that way and show what he is capable of. He is our best free throw shooter and he made 9 out of 10 free throws. The more he attacks the rim, the better. The result was a career-high 28 points on 9-of-18 shooting. The fact that he was quiet vs. Morgan State and vs. GW in the first half makes me think of how Joe Harris was his senior season. I think Brogdon, early on in the year especially, if the team is winning, is going to try to let others see what they can do and slowly work himself into the offense. There could be some growing pains early, but it will hopefully be worth it in March. Let the other players develop and grow, and then Brogdon will see how he fits into the puzzle or if he will have to take a more prominent role. Against Morgan State, he was safe to fade into the background. At GW, he clearly saw he needed to do more.
Last night's performance was un-Tony Bennett like. The good thing is we know he is a good coach and can work and mold this team. Two years ago, the team was blown out by Tennessee and also suffered losses to VCU and Green Bay early in the season. One loss in mid-November is not the end of the world and there is a lot of time left for Bennett to coach this team up. Also, despite the lackluster effort, the Cavs still only lost by five points, and to a team that could very well be in the Big Dance at the end of the season.
Whew. There is probably more I could say, but this post has gotten long, so I'll save it for down the road since, like I said, it is early. There are a lot of games left. Up next is Bradley on Thursday in Charleston, S.C., in the first round of the Charleston Classic with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2.
On to the predictions which, like I said, I'll try to remain unbiased and not let the GW game affect what I think will happen this season. For instance, I'll put a 'W' for that game because that's what I thought was going to happen.
First, a review. Every season I have done this, Virginia has ended up with a better regular-season record than I thought in my prediction. So let's hope that pattern sticks.
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2)
vs. Morgan State - W (W 86-48)
at George Washington - W (L 73-68)
vs. Bradley in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Seton Hall or Long Beach State in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, George Mason, or Towson in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Lehigh - W
at Ohio State - W
vs. William & Mary - W
vs. West Virginia in New York - W
vs. Villanova - L
vs. California - W
vs. Oakland - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
at Virginia Tech - L (similarly, not letting Tech's terrible home loss Saturday to Alabama State affect me)
at Georgia Tech - W
vs. Miami - W
at Florida State - W
vs. Clemson - W
vs. Syracuse - W
at Wake Forest - W
at Louisville - L
vs. Boston College - W
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Duke - L
vs. N.C. State - W
at Miami - L
vs. North Carolina - W
at Clemson - W
vs. Louisville - W
Prediction: 25-5 (14-4 ACC)
George Washington 73, No. 6 Virginia 68
Virginia has fought hard for respect the past couple seasons. I think it has it now, based on preseason expectations. With a No. 6 preseason ranking based on reputation, I think the Cavaliers may have been a tad overrated. That would make what the GW students were chanting correct, however I have never understood that chant because it devalues their own team's victory. Anyway, I digress.
I still think Virginia is a very good team and will have a good year, but it has work to do. The team did not appear ready for the intensity that the Colonials brought to the court. I'm not sure why. I don't know their home record, but apparently GW has been a very good home team in recent seasons. Last year, it won 22 games and two year ago, went to the NCAA tournament and won 24 games. So this is a quality team that will almost no doubt now receive votes for the top 25. Also, this was easily the Colonials' biggest non-conference game. This is the kind of win they needed to build their resume with an eye toward March. Our guys did not look ready, and they paid for it. Some fans also observed that after taking a 6-0 lead, the 'Hoos relaxed. Whatever the reason, they need to realize they will get lots of teams' best shot every night. They are now the hunted, not the hunter.
This team misses Justin Anderson. Monday night's game reminded me of some at the end of last season against North Carolina (71-67 loss), even the Belmont win a little, and to a lesser extent, the Michigan State loss (both offenses were better Monday than in that third-round NCAA tourney game, though). Anderson played in those games, but he was a lesser version of himself who could not hit 3s like he did earlier in the year. Through two games, Virginia's ability to make 3-pointers is concerning. Against Morgan State, it made 5 of 18 and it converted 5 of 20 at GW. Making 5 3s is not that uncommon for the 'Hoos, but the percentage and efficiency needs to be better. I thought the Cavs took some ill-timed shots last night and rushed things. They might be getting used to the new 30-second shot clock. If they just bring the ball up the court with a little jog instead of walking, they should not feel rushed once they get into their offense.
Another place UVa misses Anderson is in the energy department. Last year, without him, the team looked listless at times. Last night, it seemed the same way. I already said that GW's intensity level was much higher than the 'Hoos'. GW wanted it more. Anderson was Virginia's heart and soul in a lot of ways with his fire and emotion. He got fans and players fired up. The cool, calm, stone-faced I'll-kill-you-with-confidence thing that guys like Malcolm Brogdon project is really cool when it is working, but annoying when the team looks flat and is losing. It would not hurt if someone emerges as an emotions-on-their-sleeve leader.
This team misses Darion Atkins. He blossomed into a nice all-around player last year and his abilities as a defender are especially missed. He could block shots and was really good at moving his feet down low and also at hedging on picks at the top of the key. Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey are not as good at defense as he was. Isaiah Wilkins is a guy who is lanky and energetic like Atkins, but when he came in off the bench last night, he looked lost. He also fumbled the ball away on offense. When Jack Salt came in, he actually held up better than I thought he would. I did not think he would be ready for a big-time game like that, but he looked the part and had a really nice-looking block. Maybe he is someone that can emerge and actually play major minutes and be a solid post defender.
I don't know if Virginia was robbed by the refs, but if the zebras keep up their whistle rate, UVa
 |
| Malcolm Brogdon's career-high 28 points were not enough to help Virginia notch the victory at George Washington. |
Not everything was bad Monday. Brogdon, after a quiet game vs. Morgan State (five points) and a quiet first half vs. the Colonials, showed his All-American form and that he can take over a game in the second half. He saw Virginia struggling and put it upon himself to will the team to victory. He was unsuccessful, but it was great to see him break out that way and show what he is capable of. He is our best free throw shooter and he made 9 out of 10 free throws. The more he attacks the rim, the better. The result was a career-high 28 points on 9-of-18 shooting. The fact that he was quiet vs. Morgan State and vs. GW in the first half makes me think of how Joe Harris was his senior season. I think Brogdon, early on in the year especially, if the team is winning, is going to try to let others see what they can do and slowly work himself into the offense. There could be some growing pains early, but it will hopefully be worth it in March. Let the other players develop and grow, and then Brogdon will see how he fits into the puzzle or if he will have to take a more prominent role. Against Morgan State, he was safe to fade into the background. At GW, he clearly saw he needed to do more.
Last night's performance was un-Tony Bennett like. The good thing is we know he is a good coach and can work and mold this team. Two years ago, the team was blown out by Tennessee and also suffered losses to VCU and Green Bay early in the season. One loss in mid-November is not the end of the world and there is a lot of time left for Bennett to coach this team up. Also, despite the lackluster effort, the Cavs still only lost by five points, and to a team that could very well be in the Big Dance at the end of the season.
Whew. There is probably more I could say, but this post has gotten long, so I'll save it for down the road since, like I said, it is early. There are a lot of games left. Up next is Bradley on Thursday in Charleston, S.C., in the first round of the Charleston Classic with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2.
On to the predictions which, like I said, I'll try to remain unbiased and not let the GW game affect what I think will happen this season. For instance, I'll put a 'W' for that game because that's what I thought was going to happen.
First, a review. Every season I have done this, Virginia has ended up with a better regular-season record than I thought in my prediction. So let's hope that pattern sticks.
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2)
vs. Morgan State - W (W 86-48)
at George Washington - W (L 73-68)
vs. Bradley in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Seton Hall or Long Beach State in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, George Mason, or Towson in Charleston, S.C. - W
vs. Lehigh - W
at Ohio State - W
vs. William & Mary - W
vs. West Virginia in New York - W
vs. Villanova - L
vs. California - W
vs. Oakland - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
at Virginia Tech - L (similarly, not letting Tech's terrible home loss Saturday to Alabama State affect me)
at Georgia Tech - W
vs. Miami - W
at Florida State - W
vs. Clemson - W
vs. Syracuse - W
at Wake Forest - W
at Louisville - L
vs. Boston College - W
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Duke - L
vs. N.C. State - W
at Miami - L
vs. North Carolina - W
at Clemson - W
vs. Louisville - W
Prediction: 25-5 (14-4 ACC)
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