Virginia receives visit from Villanova

No. 12 Villanova at No. 8 Virginia, Noon ESPN2

Let's take a closer look at the Wildcats, the Wahoos' opponent today. Virginia has been off since a strong victory over West Virginia, 70-54, in New York on Dec. 8. Villanova beat La Salle on Sunday.

Record: 8-1
Scorers in double figures: Junior guard Josh Hart (15), senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono (12.3), freshman guard Jalen Brunson (10.8), junior forward Kris Jenkins (10.6)
Leading rebounders: Senior forward Daniel Ochefu (8.2), Hart (7.1), junior forward Darryl Reynolds (4.1)
Assist leaders: Arcidiacono (4.1), Brunson (3.9), sophomore guard Phil Booth (2.6)
Notable: Arcidiacono also leads the team in steals with 1.3 per game. Ochefu averages 8.9 points and 2.1 blocks.
Best win: No wins over current ranked teams, but Georgia Tech, Saint Joseph's, and Akron are all 7-2 now.
Other wins: Fairleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Stanford, La Salle
Loss: Dec. 7 vs. then-No. 7 Oklahoma, 78-55, in Hawaii
What Villanova does well: The Wildcats use a four-guard system and will try to attack Virginia from the perimeter. They'll try to spread out the Cavaliers' Pack-Line defense, something other teams have had success with in the past. They're scoring 76 ppg (136th in the nation) and holding opponents to just 57.6 ppg (ninth). They rank 54th in assists. They shoot fairly well from the floor at 44.8 percent (136th). They are very good at the stripe at 73.9 percent (43rd). The team rebounds solidly despite being guard-oriented.
What Villanova does poorly: The Wildcats are not a good 3-point shooting team at just 30.4 percent. To their detriment, too, they take a lot, 280, which ranks 18th most in the country. These facts, to me, shine light on something Villanova should do more of: take jumpers closer to the basket or drive to the basket. Its overall shooting percentage is actually pretty good, considering how much it is dragged down by poor shooting from beyond the arc.

Villanova is streaky on offense. If it is on, it can win at JPJ. If the Wildcats shoot a lot of 3s that don't fall, Virginia could blow them out. We saw what happened in the second half of the WVU-UVa game when the Mountaineers threw up 3s that weren't falling. Virginia turned a sizable deficit into a 16-point win. Virginia has had the tougher schedule so far. WVU was ranked ahead of the 'Hoos when they played the Mountaineers and GW is now a ranked team with just one loss. The Colonials handed Virginia a loss in the second game of the season. William and Mary has beaten N.C. State by double digits. Villanova has had only one game against a ranked foe, OU, and was blown out.

Gut feeling: I could see it going either way, which is to be expected considering the rankings. Virginia has been off since Dec. 8. Villanova has played since then. If UVa has rust, it could fall behind early. If we see the team that took control of the game in the second half against the Mountaineers, though, Villanova could be in for a rough time at JPJ. With as many 3s as the Wildcats take, it's bound to come down to how well or poorly they shoot. Virginia wins by 1-5 points.

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