No. 11 Virginia at Wake Forest, 7 p.m. ESPN3.com
Virginia seemed set to blowout Syracuse on Sunday night, but 13 3-pointers by the Orange kept it close. Defending 3s has been a problem for the Cavaliers this season, but a lot of these makes were from NBA range with pretty good defense by Virginia players. So, I can't fault the Wahoos too much for letting Syracuse stick around. The Orange did not have much of an inside game and it knew it, so bombed away from 3-point range. On the offensive end, Virginia had its best game in awhile, reaching the 70-point plateau for the first time since a Jan. 2 win, six games ago, at home vs. Notre Dame. Malcolm Brogdon led the 'Hoos with 21 points, and London Perrantes and Anthony Gill had 16 points each. Perrantes made 4 of his 8 shots from beyond the arc, and Brogdon was 3 of 7. Gill had eight boards, and Devon Hall was 1 of 2 from 3 and had seven points, while Isaiah Wilkins chipped in five.
Tonight, Virginia has another chance for its first ACC road win of the season at Wake Forest, a team that has lost four in a row and six of seven. If the Cavaliers are ever going to get an ACC road win, it might need to be this one. UVa is 1-4 on the road this season, with the lone win coming Dec. 1 against Ohio State. More on the Demon Deacons:
Record: 10-9, 1-6
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Devin Thomas (16.2), freshman guard
Bryant Crawford (12.7), sophomore forward Dinos Mitoglou (10.9)
Leading rebounders: Thomas (10.4), Mitoglou (5.8), senior guard Codi Miller-McIntyre (4.4), freshman forward John Collins (4.3)
Assist leaders: Crawford (4.6), Miller-McIntyre (3.1)
Notable: While the Deacons only have three players in double figures, they do have four players averaging between seven and eight points per game: Collins, Miller-McIntyre, sophomore guard Mitchell Wilbekin, and sophomore forward Cornelius Hudson.
Best win: Indiana, 82-78, on Nov. 23 at the Maui Invitational
Worst win: In the opening game of the year at home, Wake beat UMBC, 78-73. The Golden Retrievers are now just 5-16. Also, Rutgers is pretty bad. The Deacons beat the Scarlet Knights, who are now 6-14 and 0-7 in the Big Ten, just 69-68.
Other wins: Bucknell, UCLA, Rutgers, Arkansas, UNC Greensboro, Coastal Carolina, LSU, N.C. State
Best loss: Top candidates are probably Xavier at home, 78-70, and at Louisville, 65-57. The Musketeers are ranked No. 7 and the Cardinals No. 16.
Worst loss: I respect Richmond and its winning record of 10-8, but Wake's loss to the Spiders at home in the second game of the season, 91-82, sticks out the most. That is to say, the Demon Deacons don't really have any bad losses.
Other losses: Vanderbilt, Duke, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, North Carolina, Miami
What Wake Forest does well: The Demon Deacons aren't extremely efficient, but do put up 75.3 ppg (144th) and rebound pretty well, grabbing 39.4 per game (tied-61st). Their rebounding margin is +3.1 per game (tied-103rd).
What Wake Forest doesn't do well: Its shooting numbers aren't stellar: 43.8 percent from the field (188th), 32.2 from 3 (265th), and 66.9 from the charity stripe (257th). The Deacons also have a turnover margin of -3.9 per game (337th). They turn the ball over 15 times per game.
Like the Virginia Tech game, Virginia could blow out Wake Forest. And all the Cavaliers need to do to win probably is take care of the ball to win. UVa ranks second in fewest turnovers per game in the country, but if you've watched the games, you've see that Virginia has been sloppier since its up-and-down ACC slate began. And against the Hokies, UVa turned it over 16 times to the Hokies' eight, one of the big reasons Tech won. Games aren't played on paper, and UVa needs to bring some of its home intensity on the road. While Virginia's defense has been not as good as last season, but has recovered a bit of late, I really hope the Cavs are aggressive on the offensive end in this game, because Wake appears to be the worst defense in the ACC, by a decent shot. While points allowed per game isn't always the best metric (points per possession is), Wake is last in the league in its by almost six whole points per game, which doesn't seem like much but really adds up. In fact, the Deacons' lowest points allowed this season came in the Louisville loss. In victories, Wake's lowest points allowed was in the win over Rutgers.
Despite recent struggles, Wake has dangerous players. Miller-McIntyre has had a rough year because he fractured his foot in October and missed time, and is averaging his fewest points per game in any season of his career, but last year, he was up over 14 ppg, so who knows when he can really get going. He had 22 points in a loss against the Hokies, but hasn't scored more than six since in three games. Thomas is a tough rebounder but has had effort issues at times. Obviously, I am interested to see the freshman Crawford play. He is also the only Wake player shooting better than 40 percent from 3, so he is worth targeting. The 6-foot-10 Mitoglou gave Virginia all it could handle in Charlottesville last year, making several 3-pointers. Virginia won, 61-60, at home, but then destroyed Wake on the road, 70-34. This one could end up anywhere in between those results I imagine, and I would be pretty disappointed, but not entirely surprised, if Virginia loses.
In the end, I like Virginia to barely win because I hope and think an ACC road win is going to happen eventually, and Wake is a good candidate for it to happen against. But I'm not confident enough to guess anything more than an uncomfortable victory.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Virginia seemed set to blowout Syracuse on Sunday night, but 13 3-pointers by the Orange kept it close. Defending 3s has been a problem for the Cavaliers this season, but a lot of these makes were from NBA range with pretty good defense by Virginia players. So, I can't fault the Wahoos too much for letting Syracuse stick around. The Orange did not have much of an inside game and it knew it, so bombed away from 3-point range. On the offensive end, Virginia had its best game in awhile, reaching the 70-point plateau for the first time since a Jan. 2 win, six games ago, at home vs. Notre Dame. Malcolm Brogdon led the 'Hoos with 21 points, and London Perrantes and Anthony Gill had 16 points each. Perrantes made 4 of his 8 shots from beyond the arc, and Brogdon was 3 of 7. Gill had eight boards, and Devon Hall was 1 of 2 from 3 and had seven points, while Isaiah Wilkins chipped in five.
Tonight, Virginia has another chance for its first ACC road win of the season at Wake Forest, a team that has lost four in a row and six of seven. If the Cavaliers are ever going to get an ACC road win, it might need to be this one. UVa is 1-4 on the road this season, with the lone win coming Dec. 1 against Ohio State. More on the Demon Deacons:
Record: 10-9, 1-6
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Devin Thomas (16.2), freshman guard
Bryant Crawford (12.7), sophomore forward Dinos Mitoglou (10.9)
Leading rebounders: Thomas (10.4), Mitoglou (5.8), senior guard Codi Miller-McIntyre (4.4), freshman forward John Collins (4.3)
Assist leaders: Crawford (4.6), Miller-McIntyre (3.1)
Notable: While the Deacons only have three players in double figures, they do have four players averaging between seven and eight points per game: Collins, Miller-McIntyre, sophomore guard Mitchell Wilbekin, and sophomore forward Cornelius Hudson.
Best win: Indiana, 82-78, on Nov. 23 at the Maui Invitational
Worst win: In the opening game of the year at home, Wake beat UMBC, 78-73. The Golden Retrievers are now just 5-16. Also, Rutgers is pretty bad. The Deacons beat the Scarlet Knights, who are now 6-14 and 0-7 in the Big Ten, just 69-68.
Other wins: Bucknell, UCLA, Rutgers, Arkansas, UNC Greensboro, Coastal Carolina, LSU, N.C. State
Worst loss: I respect Richmond and its winning record of 10-8, but Wake's loss to the Spiders at home in the second game of the season, 91-82, sticks out the most. That is to say, the Demon Deacons don't really have any bad losses.
Other losses: Vanderbilt, Duke, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, North Carolina, Miami
What Wake Forest does well: The Demon Deacons aren't extremely efficient, but do put up 75.3 ppg (144th) and rebound pretty well, grabbing 39.4 per game (tied-61st). Their rebounding margin is +3.1 per game (tied-103rd).
What Wake Forest doesn't do well: Its shooting numbers aren't stellar: 43.8 percent from the field (188th), 32.2 from 3 (265th), and 66.9 from the charity stripe (257th). The Deacons also have a turnover margin of -3.9 per game (337th). They turn the ball over 15 times per game.
Like the Virginia Tech game, Virginia could blow out Wake Forest. And all the Cavaliers need to do to win probably is take care of the ball to win. UVa ranks second in fewest turnovers per game in the country, but if you've watched the games, you've see that Virginia has been sloppier since its up-and-down ACC slate began. And against the Hokies, UVa turned it over 16 times to the Hokies' eight, one of the big reasons Tech won. Games aren't played on paper, and UVa needs to bring some of its home intensity on the road. While Virginia's defense has been not as good as last season, but has recovered a bit of late, I really hope the Cavs are aggressive on the offensive end in this game, because Wake appears to be the worst defense in the ACC, by a decent shot. While points allowed per game isn't always the best metric (points per possession is), Wake is last in the league in its by almost six whole points per game, which doesn't seem like much but really adds up. In fact, the Deacons' lowest points allowed this season came in the Louisville loss. In victories, Wake's lowest points allowed was in the win over Rutgers.
Despite recent struggles, Wake has dangerous players. Miller-McIntyre has had a rough year because he fractured his foot in October and missed time, and is averaging his fewest points per game in any season of his career, but last year, he was up over 14 ppg, so who knows when he can really get going. He had 22 points in a loss against the Hokies, but hasn't scored more than six since in three games. Thomas is a tough rebounder but has had effort issues at times. Obviously, I am interested to see the freshman Crawford play. He is also the only Wake player shooting better than 40 percent from 3, so he is worth targeting. The 6-foot-10 Mitoglou gave Virginia all it could handle in Charlottesville last year, making several 3-pointers. Virginia won, 61-60, at home, but then destroyed Wake on the road, 70-34. This one could end up anywhere in between those results I imagine, and I would be pretty disappointed, but not entirely surprised, if Virginia loses.
In the end, I like Virginia to barely win because I hope and think an ACC road win is going to happen eventually, and Wake is a good candidate for it to happen against. But I'm not confident enough to guess anything more than an uncomfortable victory.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Comments
Post a Comment