No. 3 Virginia at No. 12 Miami, 7 p.m. ESPN
On Jan. 12, Virginia hosted Miami, which was ranked No. 8 at the time. It was kind of a line-in-the-sand type game for UVa, which was coming off back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, two teams that are better than last year, but still, teams that UVa fans had grown accustomed to beating the past 2-3 years. Before the game, I picked Miami to win by 10-15 points.
There was (probably overreacting) talk of the NCAA tournament bubble and NIT for the Cavaliers. Virginia got things straightened out at home, though, and beat the Hurricanes, 66-58, in what wasn't a perfect game by any means, but seemed to find the Wahoos ramping up the defensive intensity again after some relaxed-looking play vs. the Hokies and Yellow Jackets, and even in the first ACC game against Notre Dame, in which UVa won but gave up 66 points.
Now, on Feb. 22, things have changed a lot. After that first Miami win, Virginia did lose another road game to Florida State, but has been nearly perfect since, with only a one-point controversial loss at Duke as a blemish. The Cavaliers have risen to No. 3 in the polls and control their own destiny for an ACC regular-season title and thus, the No. 1 seed in ACC tournament. And if Virginia was to win out and capture a second ACC tournament crown in three years, it would most likely be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
It won't be easy. Miami is a tough out at home and has played ranked teams well, going 3-2 vs. the top 25. Since the loss to UVa, Miami has gone 8-3, with wins over Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, and losses to Clemson, N.C. State, and North Carolina. The most recent stretch the Hurricanes are in has been a bit shaky, though. In a battle for first place in the ACC standings Saturday at UNC, they came up woefully short. It is one thing to lose to a ranked team on the road. It is another to not compete, be down by as many as 38 points, and lose 96-71. Miami just did not show up in Chapel Hill. To rub salt on the wound, third-leading scorer Ja'Quan Newton (11.1 ppg) hurt his leg. He's available tonight, but he wasn't putting any weight on it when he walked off the court, so it's tough to say how effective he can be.
Even before the loss to UNC, Miami had close calls against FSU (road) and Pittsburgh (home) in two-point wins, and also played poorly in the first half at home against the Hokies, but pulled away in the second. Still, I expect a much better effort and game from the 'Canes tonight.
In the first meeting between the 'Hoos and Hurricanes, Angel Rodriguez led Miami with 17 points, Sheldon McClellan had 13, and Davon Reed added 11. Newton and Ivan Cruz Uceda had six each, and Tonye Jekiri had five. Miami shot 22 3-pointers, but made just six. It also made just 10 of 17 free throws. It was not a great offensive game for the Hurricanes, and I think the Cavs should expect better this time around. UVa was led by Malcolm Brogdon with 20, Anthony Gill with 15, London Perrantes with 13, and Mike Tobey with 12. Darius Thompson had four, and Devon Hall two. Virginia made just 2 of 7 3-pointers, but 16 of 21 free throws. UVa shot 51.1 percent overall, and Miami was down at 42 percent.
Virginia has played better since that game, but should be expecting a fight from the Hurricanes. However, this recent rough patch Miami has gone through, coupled with the fact that UVa has had a week off while Miami has played two games since UVa last played, makes me think Virginia will be the more ready and prepared team.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
On Jan. 12, Virginia hosted Miami, which was ranked No. 8 at the time. It was kind of a line-in-the-sand type game for UVa, which was coming off back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, two teams that are better than last year, but still, teams that UVa fans had grown accustomed to beating the past 2-3 years. Before the game, I picked Miami to win by 10-15 points.
There was (probably overreacting) talk of the NCAA tournament bubble and NIT for the Cavaliers. Virginia got things straightened out at home, though, and beat the Hurricanes, 66-58, in what wasn't a perfect game by any means, but seemed to find the Wahoos ramping up the defensive intensity again after some relaxed-looking play vs. the Hokies and Yellow Jackets, and even in the first ACC game against Notre Dame, in which UVa won but gave up 66 points.
Now, on Feb. 22, things have changed a lot. After that first Miami win, Virginia did lose another road game to Florida State, but has been nearly perfect since, with only a one-point controversial loss at Duke as a blemish. The Cavaliers have risen to No. 3 in the polls and control their own destiny for an ACC regular-season title and thus, the No. 1 seed in ACC tournament. And if Virginia was to win out and capture a second ACC tournament crown in three years, it would most likely be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
It won't be easy. Miami is a tough out at home and has played ranked teams well, going 3-2 vs. the top 25. Since the loss to UVa, Miami has gone 8-3, with wins over Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, and losses to Clemson, N.C. State, and North Carolina. The most recent stretch the Hurricanes are in has been a bit shaky, though. In a battle for first place in the ACC standings Saturday at UNC, they came up woefully short. It is one thing to lose to a ranked team on the road. It is another to not compete, be down by as many as 38 points, and lose 96-71. Miami just did not show up in Chapel Hill. To rub salt on the wound, third-leading scorer Ja'Quan Newton (11.1 ppg) hurt his leg. He's available tonight, but he wasn't putting any weight on it when he walked off the court, so it's tough to say how effective he can be.Even before the loss to UNC, Miami had close calls against FSU (road) and Pittsburgh (home) in two-point wins, and also played poorly in the first half at home against the Hokies, but pulled away in the second. Still, I expect a much better effort and game from the 'Canes tonight.
In the first meeting between the 'Hoos and Hurricanes, Angel Rodriguez led Miami with 17 points, Sheldon McClellan had 13, and Davon Reed added 11. Newton and Ivan Cruz Uceda had six each, and Tonye Jekiri had five. Miami shot 22 3-pointers, but made just six. It also made just 10 of 17 free throws. It was not a great offensive game for the Hurricanes, and I think the Cavs should expect better this time around. UVa was led by Malcolm Brogdon with 20, Anthony Gill with 15, London Perrantes with 13, and Mike Tobey with 12. Darius Thompson had four, and Devon Hall two. Virginia made just 2 of 7 3-pointers, but 16 of 21 free throws. UVa shot 51.1 percent overall, and Miami was down at 42 percent.
Virginia has played better since that game, but should be expecting a fight from the Hurricanes. However, this recent rough patch Miami has gone through, coupled with the fact that UVa has had a week off while Miami has played two games since UVa last played, makes me think Virginia will be the more ready and prepared team.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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