No. 11 Virginia 63, No. 16 Louisville 47
I am usually pretty good at having my finger on the pulse of my favorite teams and predicting what will happen in their games, whether the team in question is Virginia football, the Cowboys, or the hardwood 'Hoos. But I have had a tough time recently guessing what the men's basketball team is going to do. In fact, I am only 3-6 in guessing the nine ACC games, and that was very nearly 2-7, because the Wahoos were seconds away from losing to Wake Forest. I predicted a 1-5 point win. The other correct guesses were the Syracuse and Notre Dame contests.
The trend of me being way off continued Saturday when I picked Louisville to defeat the Cavaliers by 10-15 points. Virginia, of course, absolutely crushed the Cardinals in probably UVa's most surprising result this season, and their most complete game overall. On the defensive end, there is pretty much no doubt on that front. I think you can argue the Villanova game was, offensively, a better one for the Wahoos. But this was the best overall.
I am sold on what UVa does at home, but the road was a different story, so my trepidation was understandable. Virginia grabbed control of the game early and never looked back. The closest score during the game was 4-3, Virginia held Louisville to an opponent season low of 14 points in the first half, and a low for total points, 47. The previous low for UVa opponents this season was 48 for Morgan State in the first game of the year. I waited for Louisville to make a run in the second half, but it never came. The margin never dipped below the final 16-point barrier, once it got to 20, it never went back below 18, and it hit 23 three separate times. Every time Louisville made a 3, dunked the ball, or made a shot and the crowd got even a little into in the second half, Virginia answered with a score of its own. It was total domination. It was Louisville's worst loss in the KFC Yum! Center, which is fun to say and opened six years ago.
So what gives? Well, it is certainly possible that the comeback at Wake Forest sparked the 'Hoos and woke them from their road slumber a bit. Referencing two seasons ago, it could be #TennesseeTurnaround and the following win all in one. Certainly, the win at Louisville had the feeling of a workmanlike performance from one of the last two seasons. Consistent, not spectacular offense and brutal, lockdown defense. But I think the more likely possibility right now is that UVa has been playing to the level of its competition this season. When you think about some of the best games the Cavs have played this season, you think of the ranked teams (Virginia is 4-0 against them) and the brand name schools: Villanova, West Virginia (not the first 18 minutes, but certainly the last 22), Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville. The bad news is the road games Virginia has left are difficult. But maybe that is good news, because this team has been getting up for big games.
Normally when you say "playing to the level of competition," it seems to apply to a middling team that seems like it can do better and loses a few big games, wins a few big games, and mostly beats lesser competition, but also has some head-scratching losses. An NCAA tournament bubble worthy team. I think of the 2012-13 Virginia team. This squad feels different than that one. Obviously, it is a better team overall, but what I mean is that this kind of playing to the level of competition feels different than what that team did that year.
To me, this is Virginia getting used to being one of the favorites in the ACC. The last two seasons, the Cavaliers have been ranked in the AP's preseason top 10. Even when Virginia stumbled a few games ago and lost three of four to teams that weren't ranked, it fell to only No. 13. The team is getting respect. And thus, it is getting every team's best shot. That, coupled with the fact that the middle to bottom of the ACC is better than last year, means the road in the conference is tougher. It's no longer Virginia coming to play Georgia Tech in a sleepy Saturday game. It is top-10 team Virginia, and this affects teams' preparations.
Last year, but especially two years ago, Virginia was the out-of-nowhere team that was hunting the top dogs of the league. The league was taken by surprise. Now, after two straight 30-win seasons and ACC regular-season championships, Virginia is the hunted. Coaches are working hard to figure out how to beat the Cavaliers. I think the team is learning what being hunted means, but it's taken awhile. The flip side of being a big dog is that the big games don't feel odd or as hyped up anymore. Like I said earlier, Virginia is 4-0 vs. the top 25 and has played some of its best ball against name brand schools. The Cavs have that look of a team that doesn't shy away from the spotlight, and in fact embraces it. That's what I mean when I say they aren't just playing these big games and winning a few and losing a few like that '12-'13 team, but they are, at times, dominating those games. They are getting comfortable in them and expecting them, as opposed to getting up for one or two here and there.
UVa seems to have the big game, big opponent part down pat. The next step for Virginia is getting up for every game, no matter the opponent, realizing it has a target on its back, especially on the road, and adjusting to life as a top dog in the ACC.
Boston College at No. 9 Virginia, 7 p.m. TCN (Channel 8 in Cville area)
If there has ever been a game where Virginia might look ahead to what's next, it is this next one, at home vs. Boston College (what's next is a Saturday matchup at Pitt, by the way). The Eagles look like one of the worst high-major teams in the nation and are winless in the ACC. UVa hosts BC, which might make the team rest on its laurels even more. It will be interesting to see how the Cavaliers come out coming off their best showing this season. Here's more on the Eagles:
Record: 7-14, 0-8
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Eli Carter (17.3), freshman guard Jerome Robinson (11.6)
Leading rebounders: Senior center Dennis Clifford (6.7), Carter (4.1), Robinson (4)
Assist leaders: Carter (4.2), Robinson (2.8)
Notable: Clifford averages 8.3 ppg. Three others players -- freshman forward A.J. Turner, freshman guard Matt Milon, and sophomore guard Darryl Hicks -- all average between 4 and 6.1 ppg.
Best win: The Eagles have two home victories over teams that currently have winning records, both occurring in late December: 64-55 vs. New Hampshire (12-8) and 72-67 vs. New Hampshire (12-9)
Worst win: BC managed just a 69-61 home win over Delaware, which now sits 5-16 and 0-10 in the CAA.
Other wins: St. Francis (N.Y.), Central Connecticut State, Harvard, Maine
Best loss: BC lost to Florida State by just 10 at home, but I'll go with a 67-53 loss at home to No. 15 Miami. The Eagles were down just by one, 29-28, at halftime and it wasn't until the end of the game that the Hurricanes pulled away.
Worst loss: America East team UMass Lowell won at BC, 68-66. The River Hawks are just 7-14 and 3-5 in the league.
Other losses: Michigan State, Cal Irvine, Santa Clara, Penn State, Providence, Duke, Notre Dame (twice),
Syracuse, Pittsburgh, FSU, North Carolina
The only chance BC probably has is on the defensive end, where it ranks 134th in the country allowing 69.5 ppg, which is 8th in the ACC. It will need to play a solid defensive game and hope Virginia slips up on offense. The Eagles' offensive numbers are, as expected, not impressive. They rank 339th in points per game, 284th in field goal percentage, 213th in 3-point percentage, and 322nd in free throw percentage. They also rank below 300th in rebounds per game and rebounding margin. BC hasn't scored more than 64 points in an ACC game. All but two of its losses have come by double digits and its average margin of defeat in conference games is 20.9 points.
This is one game where Virginia could afford to be off since it is at home. The comfy confines of JPJ could lull Virginia into a false sense of security, though. If I am BC, I come out swinging. It has nothing to lose, so I would bomb away from 3 and see what happens. Might get lucky and at the very least force UVa to have to climb out of a hole. Carter makes 32.2 percent from 3 and Robinson 34.6, but the best shooters have only shot 46 and 32 3s, respectively: Milon (50 percent) and Sammy Barnes-Thompkins (43.8).
I would be surprised but delighted if Virginia comes out looking as focused as it did against Louisville. A few days off, a non-name opponent -- and one that has a losing record to boot -- coming to Charlottesville probably isn't a recipe for razor-sharp focus and having the attitude of a shark smelling blood in the water. That said, I hope Virginia doesn't give fans any nervous feelings in this game. That would just be cruel and unusual punishment. Hopefully the guys take care of business early and get the backups a couple minsutes at the end of the game. I think the Cavs will be comfortably up and a few minutes of garbage time will make the final score more respectable looking.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
I am usually pretty good at having my finger on the pulse of my favorite teams and predicting what will happen in their games, whether the team in question is Virginia football, the Cowboys, or the hardwood 'Hoos. But I have had a tough time recently guessing what the men's basketball team is going to do. In fact, I am only 3-6 in guessing the nine ACC games, and that was very nearly 2-7, because the Wahoos were seconds away from losing to Wake Forest. I predicted a 1-5 point win. The other correct guesses were the Syracuse and Notre Dame contests.
The trend of me being way off continued Saturday when I picked Louisville to defeat the Cavaliers by 10-15 points. Virginia, of course, absolutely crushed the Cardinals in probably UVa's most surprising result this season, and their most complete game overall. On the defensive end, there is pretty much no doubt on that front. I think you can argue the Villanova game was, offensively, a better one for the Wahoos. But this was the best overall.
I am sold on what UVa does at home, but the road was a different story, so my trepidation was understandable. Virginia grabbed control of the game early and never looked back. The closest score during the game was 4-3, Virginia held Louisville to an opponent season low of 14 points in the first half, and a low for total points, 47. The previous low for UVa opponents this season was 48 for Morgan State in the first game of the year. I waited for Louisville to make a run in the second half, but it never came. The margin never dipped below the final 16-point barrier, once it got to 20, it never went back below 18, and it hit 23 three separate times. Every time Louisville made a 3, dunked the ball, or made a shot and the crowd got even a little into in the second half, Virginia answered with a score of its own. It was total domination. It was Louisville's worst loss in the KFC Yum! Center, which is fun to say and opened six years ago.
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| Mike Tobey looks for an opening at Louisville. He scored nine points off the bench. Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill led the Wahoos with 13 points apiece. |
Normally when you say "playing to the level of competition," it seems to apply to a middling team that seems like it can do better and loses a few big games, wins a few big games, and mostly beats lesser competition, but also has some head-scratching losses. An NCAA tournament bubble worthy team. I think of the 2012-13 Virginia team. This squad feels different than that one. Obviously, it is a better team overall, but what I mean is that this kind of playing to the level of competition feels different than what that team did that year.
To me, this is Virginia getting used to being one of the favorites in the ACC. The last two seasons, the Cavaliers have been ranked in the AP's preseason top 10. Even when Virginia stumbled a few games ago and lost three of four to teams that weren't ranked, it fell to only No. 13. The team is getting respect. And thus, it is getting every team's best shot. That, coupled with the fact that the middle to bottom of the ACC is better than last year, means the road in the conference is tougher. It's no longer Virginia coming to play Georgia Tech in a sleepy Saturday game. It is top-10 team Virginia, and this affects teams' preparations.
Last year, but especially two years ago, Virginia was the out-of-nowhere team that was hunting the top dogs of the league. The league was taken by surprise. Now, after two straight 30-win seasons and ACC regular-season championships, Virginia is the hunted. Coaches are working hard to figure out how to beat the Cavaliers. I think the team is learning what being hunted means, but it's taken awhile. The flip side of being a big dog is that the big games don't feel odd or as hyped up anymore. Like I said earlier, Virginia is 4-0 vs. the top 25 and has played some of its best ball against name brand schools. The Cavs have that look of a team that doesn't shy away from the spotlight, and in fact embraces it. That's what I mean when I say they aren't just playing these big games and winning a few and losing a few like that '12-'13 team, but they are, at times, dominating those games. They are getting comfortable in them and expecting them, as opposed to getting up for one or two here and there.
UVa seems to have the big game, big opponent part down pat. The next step for Virginia is getting up for every game, no matter the opponent, realizing it has a target on its back, especially on the road, and adjusting to life as a top dog in the ACC.
Boston College at No. 9 Virginia, 7 p.m. TCN (Channel 8 in Cville area)
If there has ever been a game where Virginia might look ahead to what's next, it is this next one, at home vs. Boston College (what's next is a Saturday matchup at Pitt, by the way). The Eagles look like one of the worst high-major teams in the nation and are winless in the ACC. UVa hosts BC, which might make the team rest on its laurels even more. It will be interesting to see how the Cavaliers come out coming off their best showing this season. Here's more on the Eagles:
Record: 7-14, 0-8
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Eli Carter (17.3), freshman guard Jerome Robinson (11.6)
Leading rebounders: Senior center Dennis Clifford (6.7), Carter (4.1), Robinson (4)
Assist leaders: Carter (4.2), Robinson (2.8)
Notable: Clifford averages 8.3 ppg. Three others players -- freshman forward A.J. Turner, freshman guard Matt Milon, and sophomore guard Darryl Hicks -- all average between 4 and 6.1 ppg.
Best win: The Eagles have two home victories over teams that currently have winning records, both occurring in late December: 64-55 vs. New Hampshire (12-8) and 72-67 vs. New Hampshire (12-9)
Worst win: BC managed just a 69-61 home win over Delaware, which now sits 5-16 and 0-10 in the CAA.
Other wins: St. Francis (N.Y.), Central Connecticut State, Harvard, Maine
Best loss: BC lost to Florida State by just 10 at home, but I'll go with a 67-53 loss at home to No. 15 Miami. The Eagles were down just by one, 29-28, at halftime and it wasn't until the end of the game that the Hurricanes pulled away.
Worst loss: America East team UMass Lowell won at BC, 68-66. The River Hawks are just 7-14 and 3-5 in the league.
Other losses: Michigan State, Cal Irvine, Santa Clara, Penn State, Providence, Duke, Notre Dame (twice),
The only chance BC probably has is on the defensive end, where it ranks 134th in the country allowing 69.5 ppg, which is 8th in the ACC. It will need to play a solid defensive game and hope Virginia slips up on offense. The Eagles' offensive numbers are, as expected, not impressive. They rank 339th in points per game, 284th in field goal percentage, 213th in 3-point percentage, and 322nd in free throw percentage. They also rank below 300th in rebounds per game and rebounding margin. BC hasn't scored more than 64 points in an ACC game. All but two of its losses have come by double digits and its average margin of defeat in conference games is 20.9 points.
This is one game where Virginia could afford to be off since it is at home. The comfy confines of JPJ could lull Virginia into a false sense of security, though. If I am BC, I come out swinging. It has nothing to lose, so I would bomb away from 3 and see what happens. Might get lucky and at the very least force UVa to have to climb out of a hole. Carter makes 32.2 percent from 3 and Robinson 34.6, but the best shooters have only shot 46 and 32 3s, respectively: Milon (50 percent) and Sammy Barnes-Thompkins (43.8).
I would be surprised but delighted if Virginia comes out looking as focused as it did against Louisville. A few days off, a non-name opponent -- and one that has a losing record to boot -- coming to Charlottesville probably isn't a recipe for razor-sharp focus and having the attitude of a shark smelling blood in the water. That said, I hope Virginia doesn't give fans any nervous feelings in this game. That would just be cruel and unusual punishment. Hopefully the guys take care of business early and get the backups a couple minsutes at the end of the game. I think the Cavs will be comfortably up and a few minutes of garbage time will make the final score more respectable looking.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
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