College football season is not far away at all. The first game is overseas -- California vs. Hawaii in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 26 at 10 p.m., Aug. 27 if you live east of the East Coast closer to Australia. Virginia's first game is at home Sept. 3 vs. Richmond. That means it is time to start thinking about how the ACC will play out. There are no shortage of storylines this season and it starts with coaches. There are four new coaches in the ACC this year, three in the Coastal division, one of those of course being UVa's own Bronco Mendenhall, who was hired in December away from BYU to replace the departed Mike London.
This is going to be my fifth year, unbelievably, of doing record predictions for each ACC team. I have perused past predictions to see how I set up my previews, but I have never evaluated how I have done with my predictions. I'm going to do that in this post. I'll start with the most recent year and work backward. Each year, with the exception of a couple entries from 2011, I've given two likely records for each team. For instance, last year I guessed 4-8 or 5-7 for UVa. The Cavaliers went 4-8. So, for that, I will give myself a 0. Had I guessed 3-9 or 6-6, I would give myself 1 point. So, it'll be like golf. A low score is better. This includes regular-season records only. This post ended up looking a little longer than I thought it would, so feel free to skip to the bottom and the "bottom line." Otherwise, what follows is all the data.
Here we go:
Here we go:
2015
Syracuse
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 4-8
Points: 1
Boston College
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 3-9
Points: 3
Louisville
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 7-5
Points: 1
Wake Forest
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 3-9
Points: 1
N.C. State
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Clemson
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 12-0
Points: 1
Florida State
Guess: 9-3 or 10-2
Actual: 10-2
Points: 0
Pittsburgh
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 8-4
Points: 0
Virginia Tech
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 6-6
Points: 2
Duke
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
North Carolina
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 11-1
Points: 3
Georgia Tech
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 3-9
Points: 5
Miami
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 8-4
Points: 1
Virginia
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 4-8
Points: 0
2015 point total: 18 (1.29 per team)
2014
Syracuse
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 3-9
Points: 3
Boston College
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 7-5
Points: 1
Louisville
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 9-3
Points: 0
Wake Forest
Guess: 3-9 or 4-8
Actual: 3-9
Points: 0
N.C. State
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 7-5
Points: 2
Clemson
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 9-3
Points: 0
Florida State
Guess: 11-1 or 12-0
Actual: 12-0
Points: 0
Pittsburgh
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 6-6
Points: 0
Virginia Tech
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 6-6
Points: 2
Duke
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 9-3
Points: 1
North Carolina
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 6-6
Points: 1
Georgia Tech
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 10-2
Points: 2
Miami
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 6-6
Points: 0
Virginia
Guess: 3-9 or 4-8
Actual: 5-7
Points: 1
2014 point total: 13 (0.93 per team)
2013
Syracuse
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 6-6
Points: 0
Boston College
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Maryland
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 7-5
Points: 1
Wake Forest
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 4-8
Points: 1
N.C. State
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 3-9
Points: 3
Clemson
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 10-2
Points: 0
Florida State
Guess: 9-3 or 10-2
Actual: 12-0
Points: 2
Pittsburgh
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 6-6
Points: 0
Virginia Tech
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 8-4
Points: 2
Duke
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 10-2
Points: 4
North Carolina
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 6-6
Points: 2
Georgia Tech
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Miami
Guess: 9-3 or 10-2
Actual: 9-3
Points: 0
Virginia
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 2-10
Points: 3
2013 point total: 18 (1.29 per team)
2012 (12 teams, not 14, which will, of course, affect the point total)
Boston College
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 2-10
Points: 4
Maryland
Guess: 3-9 or 4-8
Actual: 4-8
Points: 0
N.C. State
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 7-5
Points: 1
Wake Forest
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 5-7
Points: 0
Clemson
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 10-2
Points: 1
Florida State
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 10-2
Points: 0
Virginia Tech
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 6-6
Points: 4
Duke
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 6-6
Points: 1
North Carolina
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 8-4
Points: 0
Georgia Tech
Guess: 8-4 or 9-3
Actual: 6-6
Points: 2
Miami
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Virginia
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 4-8
Points: 2
2012 point total: 15 (1.25 per team)
2011
Boston College
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 4-8
Points: 2
Maryland
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 2-10
Points: 5
Wake Forest
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 6-6
Points: 0
N.C. State
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Clemson
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 9-3
Points: 2
Florida State
Guess: 9-3 or 10-2
Actual: 8-4
Points: 1
Virginia Tech
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 11-1
Points: 0
Duke
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 3-9
Points: 1
North Carolina
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Georgia Tech
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 8-4
Points: 1
Miami
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 6-6
Points: 1
Virginia
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 8-4
Points: 2
2011 point total: 15 (1.25 per team)
Bottom line: Ranking my predictions from best to worst
1. 2014 (.93)
2. 2011 (1.25) and 2012 (1.25)
3. 2015 (1.29) and 2013 (1.29)
EDIT: Thanks to read JP Stroman, he noticed a math error for my 2013 N.C. State calculation, which was supposed to be 3 points, not 1. That made 2013's average 1.29, which ties it for worst with 2015. Also, my average for all years went up to 1.20.
So I followed up my best year with my worst year last season. However, 1.29 is still pretty good I'd say, being just over one win away on average.
My average for all years is 1.20.
My average for Virginia is 1.6, meaning I have been worse at picking Virginia's record than the average ACC team's record. Hopefully, the fact that last year I was pretty much on the button for 2015 means I was getting unlucky and I actually do know what I'm doing? Not sure, but it was a fun exercise to see that I've been doing pretty well overall.
N.C. State
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Clemson
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 9-3
Points: 2
Florida State
Guess: 9-3 or 10-2
Actual: 8-4
Points: 1
Virginia Tech
Guess: 10-2 or 11-1
Actual: 11-1
Points: 0
Duke
Guess: 4-8 or 5-7
Actual: 3-9
Points: 1
North Carolina
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 7-5
Points: 0
Georgia Tech
Guess: 6-6 or 7-5
Actual: 8-4
Points: 1
Miami
Guess: 7-5 or 8-4
Actual: 6-6
Points: 1
Virginia
Guess: 5-7 or 6-6
Actual: 8-4
Points: 2
2011 point total: 15 (1.25 per team)
Bottom line: Ranking my predictions from best to worst
1. 2014 (.93)
2. 2011 (1.25) and 2012 (1.25)
3. 2015 (1.29) and 2013 (1.29)
EDIT: Thanks to read JP Stroman, he noticed a math error for my 2013 N.C. State calculation, which was supposed to be 3 points, not 1. That made 2013's average 1.29, which ties it for worst with 2015. Also, my average for all years went up to 1.20.
So I followed up my best year with my worst year last season. However, 1.29 is still pretty good I'd say, being just over one win away on average.
My average for all years is 1.20.
My average for Virginia is 1.6, meaning I have been worse at picking Virginia's record than the average ACC team's record. Hopefully, the fact that last year I was pretty much on the button for 2015 means I was getting unlucky and I actually do know what I'm doing? Not sure, but it was a fun exercise to see that I've been doing pretty well overall.
I think you made a math error in your 2013 NC State calculation. Looks to me like it should be 3 points instead of 1. Not a bad showing overall though... it'd be cool if you did a wrap-up with your average every year to track it.
ReplyDeletehaha wow nice catch. that proves at least both you and my dad read the whole thing. well done. yeah you would be right. let's see that would make the average 18/14=1.29. So ends up changing the rankings.
ReplyDelete