College football picks

Last week: 5-3 Overall: 8-8

This week's college football schedule is much more intriguing than last week's, with four ranked vs. ranked matchups, highlighted early in the day by an ACC top-10 showdown.

No. 2 Florida State at No. 10 Louisville, Noon ABC
FSU QB Deondre Francois has introduced himself to the nation the past couple weeks with Sean Maguire on the bench and has taken full advantage of the situation, grabbing the starting job and running with it. He's passed for 681 yards and five TDs. The Seminoles passed one test two weeks ago by rallying to beat Ole Miss. The Cardinals have been very impressive but have not been tested yet, annihilating Charlotte and then easing by Syracuse. QB Lamar Jackson has been even more impressive than Francois, going from 100-1 odds to 8-1 to win the Heisman in two weeks after recording 697 yards passing with seven TDs plus another 318 yards rushing with six TDs. This should be a fantastic game with lots of offense but just enough defense to keep it from not being ridiculous. With the game in Louisville, I'll take the Cardinals, with their defense giving Francois some things he hasn't seen before. The same could be said for Jackson, but he did at least face FSU last season (FSU won, 41-21, in Tallahassee).
Louisville 41, Florida State 38

No. 25 Miami at Appalachian State, Noon ESPN
This game is interesting mainly because of what the Mountaineers almost did two weeks ago at then-No. 9 Tennessee. People were saying "App. State is doing it again!" during that game, a reference to when it won at No. 5 Michigan in 2007. Things are a little different now, though. The Mountaineers are an FBS team that won 11 games a year ago. Sure, they are in the lowly Sun Belt, but still, they have 85 FBS scholarships to work with. So no upset would reach the magnitude of what they did to the Wolverines in 2007. Miami is untested thus far, crushing Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic. The Hurricanes have a bye week next week before getting into ACC play, so that should help them concentrate on this game. Still, this is a great time for ASU to get Miami and the upset games are fun are fun to pick, so what the heck.
Appalachian State 24, Miami 23

James Madison at North Carolina, 3:30 p.m. CSN
Speaking of upsets as an FCS team, JMU knows a thing or two about that, taking down a ranked Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg in 2010. Can this year's Dukes, under the direction of first-year coach Mike Houston, do the same against the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked, lost to Georgia to fall out of the top 25, then struggled a bit with Illinois before pulling away for the road win last week? I doubt it. JMU's offense has been fantastic so far, putting up 80 points on Morehead State and then 56 on Central Connecticut State. Neither are exactly FCS powers, though, and Morehead doesn't even give scholarships. UNC's defense has been suspect in recent seasons, but JMU outscoring UNC is a monumental task. The Dukes' defense was quite bad last season, also, and even though Houston has a defensive background, it will take some time to turn that unit around. The Tar Heels' offense is too good at this point for JMU to sniff an upset, though maybe the Dukes can keep it close.
North Carolina 51, James Madison 17

No. 1 Alabama at No. 19 Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Alabama might have won the national championship last season, but the Crimson Tide was not perfect, thanks to the Rebels' surprise 43-37 victory in Tuscaloosa. Ole Miss won against Alabama as well two years ago in Oxford and is trying to become the first team since 1999 to defeat a Nick Saban-coached team three times in a row. Back then, Saban coached Michigan State and lost to Purdue three consecutive times. The scariest thing about Alabama now is the offense can just about match the defense. The Tide's new breakout QB this season is Jalen Hurts, and Lane Kiffin is one of the best offensive coordinators in the country. I don't like Ole Miss to continue its success vs. Saban.
Alabama 45, Ole Miss 31

Boston College at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Hokies got off to a fast start last week in the Battle at Bristol, going up 14-0 on Tennessee. The Volunteers went on a 45-3 run after that, though, and all Tech could do was make the final score a little more respectable with a final TD. Boston College's struggling offense, led by former Tech coordinator Scot Loeffler, will present less of a challenge to Bud Foster's defense. The Eagles have averaged 20 points over their two games. BC's defense, now coordinated by former UVa coordinator Jim Reid is good, but I like Tech's offense to get it going after wearing the Eagles down a bit. In these teams' last matchup at Lane Stadium, BC won, 33-30. I like Tech to get some revenge to get to 1-0 in the ACC.
Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 17

No. 12 Michigan State at No. 18 Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m. NBC
The Fighting Irish bounced back from their loss to Texas by clobbering Nevada last week. The Spartans, meanwhile, were unimpressive in beating Wofford, 28-13, in Week 1 but have had two weeks to get ready for this game since they were on bye last week. Tyler O'Connor is leading the Spartans at QB now after the graduation of Connor Cook, but they are sticking with a similar-sounding name under center (Kirk Cousins-Connor Cook, Tyler O'Connor). DeShone Kizer has been impressive as the Irish's QB and taken control of that starting job over Malik Zaire. Interestingly, MSU has won 11 of the past 17 games that it has been the underdog, which it is today by seven points on ESPN.com. I'm taking Notre Dame, though.
Notre Dame 31, Michigan State 27

No. 3 Ohio State at No. 14 Oklahoma, 7:30 p.m. Fox
Perhaps Oklahoma's loss to Houston two weeks ago said more about the now-No. 6 Cougars than it did about the Sooners, but it doesn't bode well for the prospects of Bob Stoops' Oklahoma team, which has had a penchant for losing big games, which has ironically twisted the meaning of Stoops' nickname, "Big-Game Bob," in recent seasons. It is tough to get a read on the Buckeyes, who have so far drubbed the likes of Hawaii and Bowling Green by a combined score of 125-13. At this point, despite the contest being in Norman, I have to go with OSU.
Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 31

Virginia at Connecticut, 1:30 p.m. ESPN3.com
Several UVa fans are hoping for and predicting a win for Virginia against the Huskies, which would of course be the first of the Bronco Mendenhall era. It would also snap a 16-game road losing streak. The school record for the Cavaliers is 18, set from 1958-62. Hopefully, UVa is able to avoid any sort of futility marks this season.

UConn is expected to be a solid, but not spectacular, team, and went to a bowl last season with a record of 6-6, losing in the postseason to Marshall. The Huskies have struggled so far, especially on offense, in a 24-21 win over FCS team Maine and a 28-24 loss to Navy. Keeping UConn in the 20s again would bode well for the Cavaliers' chances. The Huskies are coached by Bob Diaco, who is in his third year, and someone I considered a candidate for the UVa job. He was an assistant under Al Groh at UVa from 2006-08. Anthony Poindexter, the legendary UVa safety, was hired at UConn by Diaco to be the defensive coordinator in
2014. Other ex-UVa assistants on the Huskies' staff include Vincent Brown and Wayne Lineburg, who was a backup UVa QB in the 1990s.

Connecticut QB Bryant Shirreffs is an N.C. State transfer who has completed 79.6 percent of his passes, but for just 401 yards and one TD with zero INTs. Last season, he completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,078 yards, nine TDs, and eight picks. Shirreffs is also UConn's leading rusher at 127 yards. Ron Johnson has 98 rushing yards and three TDs. In the passing game, look out for Noel Thomas, who has 20 catches already for 186 yards and a touchdown. No other player has six receptions.

So, I said plenty of UVa fans are expecting this to be Mendenhall's first victory as a 'Hoo. Chances are certainly looking up. Mendenhall actually beat UConn the past two seasons, fairly easily, too, as BYU's coach (30-13 and 35-10). UVa is a different team, though, and might not be quite ready to win. For what it's worth, Mendenhall said this week he didn't remember last year's game, but I think he was playing coy. Of course his staff will look to see what worked last year. I do believe Mendenhall, though, when he says right now, for the Cavaliers, it is about being sound in what they want to do and executing, and worrying less about he opponent. The Huskies are not a team that has a lot of offensive firepower, which will be something the UVa defense should enjoy after going against speedy Oregon and efficient Richmond. In the end, I want to expect a win, I really do, but UVa's defense has not shown me enough to make me see a victory yet. I think we will see another step forward, but at the same time, a close, painful loss.
Connecticut 31, Virginia 28

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