Last week: 4-4 Overall: 34-21
N.C. State at No. 7 Louisville, Noon ABC
Thus far this season, an explosive offense and blowout wins have been the norm for the Cardinals. That was the exception for Louisville last Friday, when the team skated by, 24-14, over Duke after coming off a bye following their thrilling shootout loss at Clemson on Oct. 1. The Wolfpack missed a 33-yard field goal as time expired last week at Clemson, missing a chance to knock off the Tigers, the nation's third ranked team. Clemson won in OT. That result, though, should get Louisville's attention. I like the Cardinals to get back on track against an N.C. State squad that has proven to be solid, but still probably can't pull this upset off on the road.
Louisville 41, N.C. State 21
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Other than about 1.5 games this season, the Crimson Tide has been incredibly dominant. Minus the Arkansas and Ole Miss games, Alabama has outscored its opponents by an average score of 44.2-6.4. Incredible. One of the main differences between the Tide and other teams in recent seasons is defense. Alabama almost unquestionably has the best in the land in recent years, while other teams must win shootouts. As I've said here before, what makes Alabama so dangerous now is the offense is almost as good as the defense. In the two main games it has been challenged, the Tide beat Ole Miss, 48-43, and Arkansas, 49-30, though that game was 35-17 'Bama at halftime. Texas A&M has a team that can challenge Alabama. Coach Kevin Sumlin, who has taken heat for offseason transfers and slow finishes after fast starts, has the Aggies 6-0, looking like the second-best team in the SEC. The problem for the Aggies is they need to beat Alabama to have a chance at representing the West division in the SEC championship, an incredibly tough task. They did that in 2012 at Alabama, but did not make the SEC title game because they lost to LSU and Florida. So a win does not guarantee anything, since it is likely Alabama won't drop a second conference game. With all that said, as I mentioned, A&M has gotten off to fast starts in other years that didn't last, including in 2015 when it was 5-0 but then lost at home to Alabama, 41-23. A&M ended up 8-5. Two years ago, the Aggies were 5-0 and ranked No. 6 before losing three in a row, capped by getting stomped, 59-0, at Alabama. I like the Tide.
Alabama 45, Texas A&M 24
No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn, 6 p.m. ESPN
This should be a very even game between two teams trying to figure out their place in the SEC West. Both have lost to Texas A&M -- Arkansas 45-24 and Auburn 29-16 -- and both have a surprising win -- Arkansas took down Ole Miss, 34-30, and Auburn topped LSU, 18-13. Each has also lost to a top-five team -- Arkansas fell to Alabama, 49-30, and Auburn lost to Clemson, 19-13. These teams played a four-overtime thriller last year which the Razorbacks won at home, 54-46. I like the Tigers at home this year in a close one.
Auburn 33, Arkansas 30
No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU, 9 p.m. ESPN
Virtually the same thing as the above game. Just how do these teams fit in, most likely behind Alabama, in that division? The Rebels arguably have the better resume despite having one more loss, losing by 11 to Florida State in Orlando, five at home to Alabama, and four to Arkansas. LSU has two close losses, by two to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field and by five at Auburn. I'll give the Tigers the slight edge at home in a game that seems like a toss-up.
LSU 26, Ole Miss 23
No. 22 North Carolina at Virginia, 3 p.m. CSN
The Tar Heels and Cavaliers meet for the 121st time today on the gridiron with Carolina on a six-game winning streak in the series that it leads, 62-54-4. Virginia's last win over UNC came in 2009 at Chapel Hill, 16-3. The Tar Heels won last year, 26-13, and won the last meeting in Charlottesville two seasons ago, 28-27.
This will probably be a high-scoring matchup, as UNC, under fifth-year coach Larry Fedora, boasts another good offense but just OK defense. The Heels rank 24th in the country in passing offense and 52nd in total offense. Virginia is 27th in passing offense and 70th in total offense. The Heels are 77th in total defense and Virginia is 107th. UNC really struggles against the run, ranking 107th in that category. Obviously, Virginia should try to run the ball today more than it usually does. Unfortunately, UVa has not been good at running the ball, ranking 119th in that category. Virginia ran for 86 yards last week against Pitt, 80 against Duke, 148 vs. Central Michigan, 140 at UConn, 193 at Oregon, and 38 against Richmond. Oregon was really bad against the run as well, so Virginia needs to use some of that game plan against UNC. The result would hopefully be two-fold: moving the ball and chewing up clock, thus keeping UNC's passing attack off the field and Virginia's not-great defense off the field, too.
Last year, UNC went 11-1 on its way to the ACC championship game where it lost in a competitive contest to Clemson. This season's team hasn't been nearly as dominant, needing a passing TD at the buzzer to beat Pitt and a 54-yard field goal to sink FSU, however, winning at Tallahassee is probably always impressive.
Coming into the matchup with UVa last year, UNC boasted an average winning score of 40.5-17.3. This year, that margin is 32.1-28.9. Worth noting here is that two weeks ago, UNC was ill-prepared to play in tropical-storm conditions, losing at home to Virginia Tech, 34-3. The forecast in Charlottesville calls for wind up to 25 mph, so if UVa could have some success on the ground, not rely on its own passing game, and force UNC to have issues like it did vs. Tech, that could help Virginia's chances. The Tar Heels probably learned something from that game, though, and will attempt to move the ball on the ground as well with running backs T.J. Logan and Elijah Hood, who both have more than 300 yards and average more than four yards per carry, should the wind begin whipping around. Last week, UNC recorded 162 yards on the ground against Miami in a 20-13 win, rebounding from the loss to the Hokies.
Should UNC put the ball in the air a lot, QB Mitch Trubisky has been mostly fantastic in his first year starting, completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 15 TDs and only two INTs. Flashy special teams return man Ryan Switzer has turned into a fantastic receiver and leads the ACC with 58 catches. He has 606 receiving yards and three TDs.
UVa has had a pretty good offense but has shown inconsistencies. With the Tar Heels' defense looking just a bit better than the Cavaliers', it is tough to think that UVa can pull off this upset. Unfortunately, I think the winning streak in the rivalry for UNC continues.
North Carolina 41, Virginia 31
N.C. State at No. 7 Louisville, Noon ABC
Thus far this season, an explosive offense and blowout wins have been the norm for the Cardinals. That was the exception for Louisville last Friday, when the team skated by, 24-14, over Duke after coming off a bye following their thrilling shootout loss at Clemson on Oct. 1. The Wolfpack missed a 33-yard field goal as time expired last week at Clemson, missing a chance to knock off the Tigers, the nation's third ranked team. Clemson won in OT. That result, though, should get Louisville's attention. I like the Cardinals to get back on track against an N.C. State squad that has proven to be solid, but still probably can't pull this upset off on the road.
Louisville 41, N.C. State 21
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Other than about 1.5 games this season, the Crimson Tide has been incredibly dominant. Minus the Arkansas and Ole Miss games, Alabama has outscored its opponents by an average score of 44.2-6.4. Incredible. One of the main differences between the Tide and other teams in recent seasons is defense. Alabama almost unquestionably has the best in the land in recent years, while other teams must win shootouts. As I've said here before, what makes Alabama so dangerous now is the offense is almost as good as the defense. In the two main games it has been challenged, the Tide beat Ole Miss, 48-43, and Arkansas, 49-30, though that game was 35-17 'Bama at halftime. Texas A&M has a team that can challenge Alabama. Coach Kevin Sumlin, who has taken heat for offseason transfers and slow finishes after fast starts, has the Aggies 6-0, looking like the second-best team in the SEC. The problem for the Aggies is they need to beat Alabama to have a chance at representing the West division in the SEC championship, an incredibly tough task. They did that in 2012 at Alabama, but did not make the SEC title game because they lost to LSU and Florida. So a win does not guarantee anything, since it is likely Alabama won't drop a second conference game. With all that said, as I mentioned, A&M has gotten off to fast starts in other years that didn't last, including in 2015 when it was 5-0 but then lost at home to Alabama, 41-23. A&M ended up 8-5. Two years ago, the Aggies were 5-0 and ranked No. 6 before losing three in a row, capped by getting stomped, 59-0, at Alabama. I like the Tide.
Alabama 45, Texas A&M 24
No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn, 6 p.m. ESPN
This should be a very even game between two teams trying to figure out their place in the SEC West. Both have lost to Texas A&M -- Arkansas 45-24 and Auburn 29-16 -- and both have a surprising win -- Arkansas took down Ole Miss, 34-30, and Auburn topped LSU, 18-13. Each has also lost to a top-five team -- Arkansas fell to Alabama, 49-30, and Auburn lost to Clemson, 19-13. These teams played a four-overtime thriller last year which the Razorbacks won at home, 54-46. I like the Tigers at home this year in a close one.
Auburn 33, Arkansas 30
No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU, 9 p.m. ESPN
Virtually the same thing as the above game. Just how do these teams fit in, most likely behind Alabama, in that division? The Rebels arguably have the better resume despite having one more loss, losing by 11 to Florida State in Orlando, five at home to Alabama, and four to Arkansas. LSU has two close losses, by two to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field and by five at Auburn. I'll give the Tigers the slight edge at home in a game that seems like a toss-up.
LSU 26, Ole Miss 23
No. 22 North Carolina at Virginia, 3 p.m. CSN
The Tar Heels and Cavaliers meet for the 121st time today on the gridiron with Carolina on a six-game winning streak in the series that it leads, 62-54-4. Virginia's last win over UNC came in 2009 at Chapel Hill, 16-3. The Tar Heels won last year, 26-13, and won the last meeting in Charlottesville two seasons ago, 28-27.
This will probably be a high-scoring matchup, as UNC, under fifth-year coach Larry Fedora, boasts another good offense but just OK defense. The Heels rank 24th in the country in passing offense and 52nd in total offense. Virginia is 27th in passing offense and 70th in total offense. The Heels are 77th in total defense and Virginia is 107th. UNC really struggles against the run, ranking 107th in that category. Obviously, Virginia should try to run the ball today more than it usually does. Unfortunately, UVa has not been good at running the ball, ranking 119th in that category. Virginia ran for 86 yards last week against Pitt, 80 against Duke, 148 vs. Central Michigan, 140 at UConn, 193 at Oregon, and 38 against Richmond. Oregon was really bad against the run as well, so Virginia needs to use some of that game plan against UNC. The result would hopefully be two-fold: moving the ball and chewing up clock, thus keeping UNC's passing attack off the field and Virginia's not-great defense off the field, too.
Last year, UNC went 11-1 on its way to the ACC championship game where it lost in a competitive contest to Clemson. This season's team hasn't been nearly as dominant, needing a passing TD at the buzzer to beat Pitt and a 54-yard field goal to sink FSU, however, winning at Tallahassee is probably always impressive.
Should UNC put the ball in the air a lot, QB Mitch Trubisky has been mostly fantastic in his first year starting, completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 15 TDs and only two INTs. Flashy special teams return man Ryan Switzer has turned into a fantastic receiver and leads the ACC with 58 catches. He has 606 receiving yards and three TDs.
UVa has had a pretty good offense but has shown inconsistencies. With the Tar Heels' defense looking just a bit better than the Cavaliers', it is tough to think that UVa can pull off this upset. Unfortunately, I think the winning streak in the rivalry for UNC continues.
North Carolina 41, Virginia 31
Comments
Post a Comment