No. 12 Virginia at No. 6 Louisville, 7 p.m. ESPN2
ACC play begins tonight for Virginia at Louisville, a team it has had success against since the Cardinals joined the league for the 2014-15 season. Let's take a look at this edition of Louisville, though, which is a three-point favorite over the Cavaliers.
Record: 11-1
Scorers in double figures: Junior guard Quentin Snider (11.9), sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell (11.8), sophomore forward Deng Adel (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Junior forward Jaylen Johnson (7.9), senior forward Mangok Mathiang (7), Mitchell (5.6), sophomore forward Ray Spalding (5), Adel (4.8)
Assist leaders: Snider (3.9), Mitchell (2.3), Adel (2.1)
Notable: Johnson averages 9.8 ppg and eight Cardinals overall average at least 4.9 points, so they are balanced offensively, like Virginia, which has 10 players averaging at least 5.6 points. Junior forward Anas Mahmoud averages 2.4 blocks, 4.9 points, and 3.4 rebounds.
Best win: Last Wednesday, 73-70, vs. Kentucky
Other wins: Evansville, William & Mary, Long Beach State, Old Dominion, Wichita State, Purdue, Grand
Canyon, Southern Illinois, Texas Southern, Eastern Kentucky
Loss: No. 20 Baylor, 66-63, in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas
What Louisville does well: Rebounding and defense. Louisville is fourth in the nation in boards per game (44.6), 13th in rebounding margin (+8.8), and 15th in points allowed per game (60.3).
What Louisville does poorly: Shoot. The Cardinals rank just 213th in field goal percentage (43.4) and 235th in 3-point percentage (33.5). Snider is making 33 percent of his 3s. David Levitch (54.5), V.J. King (53.3), Jay Henderson (50), and Ryan McMahon (36.8) all have better percentages from beyond the arc but only McMahon (19) and King (15) have at least 15 attempts. Both Louisville and Virginia are shooting at about a 69.5 percent clip from the line. The Cardinals are also tied at 131st in assists per game (14.5).
The Wahoos beat the Cardinals twice last year, easily, 63-47 and 68-48. The first win at Louisville came out of nowhere in its style, because UVa was struggling at the time, not too far removed from losing three of four to begin ACC play, and was coming off that miraculous 72-71 win at Wake Forest when it should have lost. Virginia completely dominated the Cardinals from start to finish, and the result was pretty much the same for a fired up senior night in Charlottesville. Two years ago, UVa won, 52-47, and Louisville won on its senior night, 59-58, on a last-second shot by Mathiang. So these have been defensive slugfests for the most part, and Louisville has yet to reach 60 points against the Tony Bennett's Pack-Line. It'll likely resemble the game at California that Virginia just won. UVa has performed well against Louisville, however, playing the Cardinals on the road is a tough ACC opener, and the Cavs might struggle early on in conference play, as they did last year, while they still search for some offensive chemistry. It'll be a close game, and I doubt this is a game that gets into the 60s, but Louisville is coming in full of confidence and momentum after topping arch-rival Kentucky.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 1-5 points.
ACC play begins tonight for Virginia at Louisville, a team it has had success against since the Cardinals joined the league for the 2014-15 season. Let's take a look at this edition of Louisville, though, which is a three-point favorite over the Cavaliers.
Record: 11-1
Scorers in double figures: Junior guard Quentin Snider (11.9), sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell (11.8), sophomore forward Deng Adel (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Junior forward Jaylen Johnson (7.9), senior forward Mangok Mathiang (7), Mitchell (5.6), sophomore forward Ray Spalding (5), Adel (4.8)
Assist leaders: Snider (3.9), Mitchell (2.3), Adel (2.1)
Notable: Johnson averages 9.8 ppg and eight Cardinals overall average at least 4.9 points, so they are balanced offensively, like Virginia, which has 10 players averaging at least 5.6 points. Junior forward Anas Mahmoud averages 2.4 blocks, 4.9 points, and 3.4 rebounds.
Best win: Last Wednesday, 73-70, vs. Kentucky
Other wins: Evansville, William & Mary, Long Beach State, Old Dominion, Wichita State, Purdue, Grand
Loss: No. 20 Baylor, 66-63, in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas
What Louisville does well: Rebounding and defense. Louisville is fourth in the nation in boards per game (44.6), 13th in rebounding margin (+8.8), and 15th in points allowed per game (60.3).
What Louisville does poorly: Shoot. The Cardinals rank just 213th in field goal percentage (43.4) and 235th in 3-point percentage (33.5). Snider is making 33 percent of his 3s. David Levitch (54.5), V.J. King (53.3), Jay Henderson (50), and Ryan McMahon (36.8) all have better percentages from beyond the arc but only McMahon (19) and King (15) have at least 15 attempts. Both Louisville and Virginia are shooting at about a 69.5 percent clip from the line. The Cardinals are also tied at 131st in assists per game (14.5).
The Wahoos beat the Cardinals twice last year, easily, 63-47 and 68-48. The first win at Louisville came out of nowhere in its style, because UVa was struggling at the time, not too far removed from losing three of four to begin ACC play, and was coming off that miraculous 72-71 win at Wake Forest when it should have lost. Virginia completely dominated the Cardinals from start to finish, and the result was pretty much the same for a fired up senior night in Charlottesville. Two years ago, UVa won, 52-47, and Louisville won on its senior night, 59-58, on a last-second shot by Mathiang. So these have been defensive slugfests for the most part, and Louisville has yet to reach 60 points against the Tony Bennett's Pack-Line. It'll likely resemble the game at California that Virginia just won. UVa has performed well against Louisville, however, playing the Cardinals on the road is a tough ACC opener, and the Cavs might struggle early on in conference play, as they did last year, while they still search for some offensive chemistry. It'll be a close game, and I doubt this is a game that gets into the 60s, but Louisville is coming in full of confidence and momentum after topping arch-rival Kentucky.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 1-5 points.
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