Last week: 4-0
The wild card games left something to be desired in the competitiveness realm. The only good game, as I lamented when picking the Alabama-Clemson matchup, was Green Bay-New York, and that was only good for one half. Which probably means this round's games will be amazing. I'm only picking today's games for now, and will publish Sunday's picks tonight or Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the games!
Today
Seahawks (11-5-1) at Falcons (11-5), 4:35 p.m. Fox
This is a rematch of a Week 6 game in Seattle which the Seahawks won, 26-24, in one of the best games of the regular season. This one should be exciting as well. Atlanta's last playoff win was in this round at home vs. Seattle in 2012. It was fun to see Falcons wideout Julio Jones and Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman battle it out in the regular-season contest. With Atlanta down on its final drive, a throw to Jones from Matt Ryan fell incomplete. Sherman was shown on replay pulling Jones' arm, such that Jones could only reach up for the ball with one hand. No pass interference was called, one of the more controversial decisions of the season. Many people overlooked Atlanta this season, but it led the league in scoring and had one of the historically great offense in terms of points. Atlanta was third in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game. Ryan has had an MVP-caliber season, but Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman have been solid in the backfield. Defense has been Atlanta's biggest issue, giving up 371 yards per game, 25th in the NFL, and 25.4 ppg, 27th. Luckily for the Falcons, the Seahawks' offense has been anything but special this year. Russell Wilson has battled injuries, as has the backfield, with Thomas Rawls currently the healthy running back. He had a terrific game last week against the Lions, but I don't think we should take beating the Lions -- losers of four straight to conclude their campaign -- at home by 20 as a huge sign of progress. It took awhile for Seattle to put Detroit away. The Seahawks were a great home team, as usual, but their road performance -- 3-4-1 -- left a lot to be desired. That, coupled with the loss of safety Earl Thomas, still leaves them a little exposed in the secondary. I like Atlanta in a pretty good game in the rematch.
Falcons 27, Seahawks 23
Texans (10-7) at Patriots (14-2), 8:15 p.m. CBS
Last week, football fans got Brock Osweiler vs. Connor Cook in the Houston vs. Oakland matchup, perhaps the worst QB matchup in playoff history. This week, we get Osweiler vs. Tom Brady, maybe the worst QB mismatch in playoff history. Things are bleak for Houston in this game, obviously, with New England a 15.5-point favorite, an almost unheard of line for a postseason battle. These teams have already played this year as well (in fact, every divisional round game is a rematch), with New England beating Houston at home in Week 3, 27-0, and that without Brady under center. Jacoby Brissett started that game. It is almost unfathomable to think that the Texans could win this game on the road in the playoffs after already losing by 27 at New England this season when Brady didn't even play. Osweiler had a disappointing year after being signed as a big free agent in the offseason, but he did play fairly well last week against the Raiders: 14/25, 168 yards, one TD, and no INTs. But New England is a different beast, and for all the talk of Brady, Belichick, blah blah blah, the defense was very good this year and ended up leading the league in points allowed (15.6 ppg) and was eighth in yards allowed (326.4). Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia deserve kudos for rounding the defense into shape. Former UVa standout Chris Long has had a solid year with four sacks. I just can't see how the Patriots don't mostly cruise in this one to a fairly easy win.
Patriots 24, Texans 10
The wild card games left something to be desired in the competitiveness realm. The only good game, as I lamented when picking the Alabama-Clemson matchup, was Green Bay-New York, and that was only good for one half. Which probably means this round's games will be amazing. I'm only picking today's games for now, and will publish Sunday's picks tonight or Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the games!
Today
Seahawks (11-5-1) at Falcons (11-5), 4:35 p.m. Fox
This is a rematch of a Week 6 game in Seattle which the Seahawks won, 26-24, in one of the best games of the regular season. This one should be exciting as well. Atlanta's last playoff win was in this round at home vs. Seattle in 2012. It was fun to see Falcons wideout Julio Jones and Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman battle it out in the regular-season contest. With Atlanta down on its final drive, a throw to Jones from Matt Ryan fell incomplete. Sherman was shown on replay pulling Jones' arm, such that Jones could only reach up for the ball with one hand. No pass interference was called, one of the more controversial decisions of the season. Many people overlooked Atlanta this season, but it led the league in scoring and had one of the historically great offense in terms of points. Atlanta was third in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game. Ryan has had an MVP-caliber season, but Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman have been solid in the backfield. Defense has been Atlanta's biggest issue, giving up 371 yards per game, 25th in the NFL, and 25.4 ppg, 27th. Luckily for the Falcons, the Seahawks' offense has been anything but special this year. Russell Wilson has battled injuries, as has the backfield, with Thomas Rawls currently the healthy running back. He had a terrific game last week against the Lions, but I don't think we should take beating the Lions -- losers of four straight to conclude their campaign -- at home by 20 as a huge sign of progress. It took awhile for Seattle to put Detroit away. The Seahawks were a great home team, as usual, but their road performance -- 3-4-1 -- left a lot to be desired. That, coupled with the loss of safety Earl Thomas, still leaves them a little exposed in the secondary. I like Atlanta in a pretty good game in the rematch.
Falcons 27, Seahawks 23
Texans (10-7) at Patriots (14-2), 8:15 p.m. CBS
Last week, football fans got Brock Osweiler vs. Connor Cook in the Houston vs. Oakland matchup, perhaps the worst QB matchup in playoff history. This week, we get Osweiler vs. Tom Brady, maybe the worst QB mismatch in playoff history. Things are bleak for Houston in this game, obviously, with New England a 15.5-point favorite, an almost unheard of line for a postseason battle. These teams have already played this year as well (in fact, every divisional round game is a rematch), with New England beating Houston at home in Week 3, 27-0, and that without Brady under center. Jacoby Brissett started that game. It is almost unfathomable to think that the Texans could win this game on the road in the playoffs after already losing by 27 at New England this season when Brady didn't even play. Osweiler had a disappointing year after being signed as a big free agent in the offseason, but he did play fairly well last week against the Raiders: 14/25, 168 yards, one TD, and no INTs. But New England is a different beast, and for all the talk of Brady, Belichick, blah blah blah, the defense was very good this year and ended up leading the league in points allowed (15.6 ppg) and was eighth in yards allowed (326.4). Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia deserve kudos for rounding the defense into shape. Former UVa standout Chris Long has had a solid year with four sacks. I just can't see how the Patriots don't mostly cruise in this one to a fairly easy win.
Patriots 24, Texans 10
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