Coming off last-second loss at then-No. 1 Villanova, Virginia draws improved rival Virginia Tech at home
Virginia Tech at No. 9 Virginia, 8 p.m. ACC Network (NBC29 in Cville area)
In mid-February last year, the Cavaliers lost by one point at Duke on a controversial buzzer-beating shot. After that tough loss, I wrote that Virginia needed to make sure that the defeat didn't beat them twice. I meant that the Wahoos needed to make sure they moved on quickly from that game and not let it affect them in their next matchup with N.C. State.
The exact same thing can be written after the gut-punch of a loss Virginia suffered at Villanova on Sunday. A win over the No. 1 team (No. 4 this week after a loss last week at Marquette) would've been icing on the cake, it was not a so-called "bad loss" on the NCAA tournament resume, but the way it happened was rough. Just as in the Duke game last year, Virginia held a double-digit lead, though I believe it was up 11 in the first half against Duke while its lead got up to 13 in the second half against Villanova. And then the team lost on a buzzer-beater, just as it did against the Blue Devils. There was no controversy with this shot as there was last year at Duke, when Grayson Allen clearly landed -- aka traveled -- before he got the shot off.
However, there was a major disparity in free throws, which has happened quite a few times in Virginia's losses this season. In fact, in Virginia's four losses, opponents are a combined 65 of 95 from the line while Virginia is 15 of 26. Villanova shot 24 of them, while UVa had just three, all in the second half. Virginia needs to be more aggressive, and Tony Bennett might need to review how he handles referees during games. Clearly, for whatever reason, Virginia's reputation is that it doesn't get fouled much -- it is 345th in free throws attempted in the nation -- and usually there aren't a ton of fouls called on Virginia -- it commits 15.9 fouls per game (19th fewest). But in UVa's losses this year, fouls were called on the Cavaliers and not on their opponents. If Bennett can change up his strategy and help this situation at all, he should at least try. And like I said, it does also have to do with UVa's style of play. The Cavaliers are mostly a jump-shooting team, though they have been more aggressive lately, I think. They also pass a lot, looking for just the right shot. Virginia is known for having the most patient offense in the nation. And sometimes, that means a player is open at the end of the shot clock, but still must make the shot. Maybe going to the rim a little earlier in the clock and attacking could work. But UVa doesn't want to change how it plays too much. There's a balance between being more aggressive and forcing the refs to call more fouls and just playing how it should play, which has led the Cavaliers to a 16-4 record thus far.
Virginia was able to bounce back from that Duke loss a year ago and dispatch N.C. State at home, 73-53, although it was 31-31 at the half, so perhaps the team did let the Duke loss linger a bit. Tonight, the opponent is rival Virginia Tech, and the Hokies are better than that N.C. State squad, so the Wahoos will have to bounce back more quickly. Here's more on Tech:
Record: 16-5, 5-4 ACC
Leading scorers: Senior forward Zach LeDay (16.1), sophomore guard Ahmed Hill (13), senior guard Seth Allen (12.4), sophomore guard Chris Clarke (12), sophomore guard Justin Robinson (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Clarke (7.4), LeDay (6.7), Robinson (3.4), Hill (3.4)
Assist leaders: Robinson (4.3), Allen (3.6), Clarke (3.4)
Notable: Justin Bibbs averages 8.8 points and 2.8 rebounds. All of the players I mentioned so far play about 30 minutes per game. Only two others -- Khadim Sy and Ty Outlaw -- average double figure minutesLeDay averages one block.
at 12, although Sy does start. Clarke averages one steal.
Best win: vs. No. 5 Duke, 89-75 (Duke's Grayson Allen was suspended for this game)
Worst win: vs. Boston College, 85-79, on Sunday. BC is 9-14.
Other wins: Maine, High Point, VMI, New Mexico, Nebraska, Michigan, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Ole Miss, The Citadel, Charleston Southern, Maryland-Baltimore County, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: vs. Notre Dame, 76-71
Worst loss: at N.C. State, 104-78. The Wolfpack are 14-8; it was the blowout nature of this loss, coming after the Duke win, that made it so bad
Other losses: Texas A&M, Florida State, North Carolina
What Virginia Tech does well: The Hokies score 81.2 points per game (31st in the country). They also shoot well, 49.1 percent from the field (16th) and 39.3 percent beyond the 3-point line (26th). They struggle a little at the free throw line, 70.6 percent (148th). They move the ball well with 15.8 assists per game (62nd) and take care of possessions fairly well with just 12.1 turnovers per game (tied-74th) and a +.8 turnover margin (147th).
What Virginia Tech does poorly: The Hokies haven't cleaned the glass or played defense that cleanly this year. They are giving up 73.4 points per game (216th) and have a -.7 rebounding margin. (232nd). They also give up 44 percent field goal shooting (195th) and 34.3 percent from 3 (159th).
Coach Buzz Williams has the Hokies pointed toward an NCAA tournament berth. They are currently a No. 8 seed in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's bracket on ESPN.com (Virginia is a 4). It would be Tech's first berth since the 2006-07 season, which is also the last time both UVa and Tech went dancing at the same time. Tech is 5-4 after nine ACC games for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Williams has done a fine job in his third year with Tech, which was dreadful in his first year and then much improved last season, going 20-15 (10-8 ACC) and getting to the second round of the NIT, where it lost at BYU after beating Princeton in the first round. UVa lost at Tech last season, 70-68, before it was fully known how much better Tech was. That loss ended up not being terrible for the tournament resume. The team bounced back for a 67-49 win at home against Tech. In the midst of this tough stretch of games, this is a contest the Cavaliers need to win if they hope to compete for a top seed in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. I have a hard time seeing the 'Hoos beating the Hokies in Blacksburg in a couple weeks, where UVa hasn't played well for a few years now. Two years prior to the 2015-16 season, when Tech was bad, UVa barely eked out victories.
LeDay makes Tech go, and he was great last year in Blacksburg and then not great in Charlottesville. Normally about a 30 percent 3-point shooter, and 27.3 percent this year, he hit 3 of 4 from beyond the arc in the upset win last year and had 22 points, and then just 1 of 4 in the loss (1 of 7 from the field overall) when he scored seven points. Allen has been very good recently, averaging 16.3 points on 62 percent shooting (55 percent from 3) in the past six games since returning from a head injury. Overall, he is hitting 48.5 percent of his 3s, which is the level London Perrantes was at a year ago. Hill and Bibbs are capable 3-point shooters as well, right above and below 40 percent, respectively. Clarke is a slasher and hard worker that can get to the free throw line. Indeed, Tech is once again much better at getting to the line than UVa, ranking 122nd in free throws attempted (479), 22.8 per game, although the Hokies were even better last year, averaging 27.5 per game.
If UVa, a good shooting team in its own right, can match or exceed Tech in field goal percentage, especially from 3-point land, and at least draw somewhat favorable calls and not get crushed in free throw attempts, I think it will win this game. The atmosphere will be charged, and if UVa uses the crowd for fuel and plays its game and plays solid defense on the perimeter, the Wahoos will win, though I'm expecting a closer game than the 11-point line (UVa as favorite) indicates.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
In mid-February last year, the Cavaliers lost by one point at Duke on a controversial buzzer-beating shot. After that tough loss, I wrote that Virginia needed to make sure that the defeat didn't beat them twice. I meant that the Wahoos needed to make sure they moved on quickly from that game and not let it affect them in their next matchup with N.C. State.
The exact same thing can be written after the gut-punch of a loss Virginia suffered at Villanova on Sunday. A win over the No. 1 team (No. 4 this week after a loss last week at Marquette) would've been icing on the cake, it was not a so-called "bad loss" on the NCAA tournament resume, but the way it happened was rough. Just as in the Duke game last year, Virginia held a double-digit lead, though I believe it was up 11 in the first half against Duke while its lead got up to 13 in the second half against Villanova. And then the team lost on a buzzer-beater, just as it did against the Blue Devils. There was no controversy with this shot as there was last year at Duke, when Grayson Allen clearly landed -- aka traveled -- before he got the shot off.
However, there was a major disparity in free throws, which has happened quite a few times in Virginia's losses this season. In fact, in Virginia's four losses, opponents are a combined 65 of 95 from the line while Virginia is 15 of 26. Villanova shot 24 of them, while UVa had just three, all in the second half. Virginia needs to be more aggressive, and Tony Bennett might need to review how he handles referees during games. Clearly, for whatever reason, Virginia's reputation is that it doesn't get fouled much -- it is 345th in free throws attempted in the nation -- and usually there aren't a ton of fouls called on Virginia -- it commits 15.9 fouls per game (19th fewest). But in UVa's losses this year, fouls were called on the Cavaliers and not on their opponents. If Bennett can change up his strategy and help this situation at all, he should at least try. And like I said, it does also have to do with UVa's style of play. The Cavaliers are mostly a jump-shooting team, though they have been more aggressive lately, I think. They also pass a lot, looking for just the right shot. Virginia is known for having the most patient offense in the nation. And sometimes, that means a player is open at the end of the shot clock, but still must make the shot. Maybe going to the rim a little earlier in the clock and attacking could work. But UVa doesn't want to change how it plays too much. There's a balance between being more aggressive and forcing the refs to call more fouls and just playing how it should play, which has led the Cavaliers to a 16-4 record thus far.
Virginia was able to bounce back from that Duke loss a year ago and dispatch N.C. State at home, 73-53, although it was 31-31 at the half, so perhaps the team did let the Duke loss linger a bit. Tonight, the opponent is rival Virginia Tech, and the Hokies are better than that N.C. State squad, so the Wahoos will have to bounce back more quickly. Here's more on Tech:
Record: 16-5, 5-4 ACC
Leading scorers: Senior forward Zach LeDay (16.1), sophomore guard Ahmed Hill (13), senior guard Seth Allen (12.4), sophomore guard Chris Clarke (12), sophomore guard Justin Robinson (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Clarke (7.4), LeDay (6.7), Robinson (3.4), Hill (3.4)
Assist leaders: Robinson (4.3), Allen (3.6), Clarke (3.4)
Notable: Justin Bibbs averages 8.8 points and 2.8 rebounds. All of the players I mentioned so far play about 30 minutes per game. Only two others -- Khadim Sy and Ty Outlaw -- average double figure minutesLeDay averages one block.
Best win: vs. No. 5 Duke, 89-75 (Duke's Grayson Allen was suspended for this game)
Worst win: vs. Boston College, 85-79, on Sunday. BC is 9-14.
Other wins: Maine, High Point, VMI, New Mexico, Nebraska, Michigan, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Ole Miss, The Citadel, Charleston Southern, Maryland-Baltimore County, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: vs. Notre Dame, 76-71
Worst loss: at N.C. State, 104-78. The Wolfpack are 14-8; it was the blowout nature of this loss, coming after the Duke win, that made it so bad
Other losses: Texas A&M, Florida State, North Carolina
What Virginia Tech does well: The Hokies score 81.2 points per game (31st in the country). They also shoot well, 49.1 percent from the field (16th) and 39.3 percent beyond the 3-point line (26th). They struggle a little at the free throw line, 70.6 percent (148th). They move the ball well with 15.8 assists per game (62nd) and take care of possessions fairly well with just 12.1 turnovers per game (tied-74th) and a +.8 turnover margin (147th).
What Virginia Tech does poorly: The Hokies haven't cleaned the glass or played defense that cleanly this year. They are giving up 73.4 points per game (216th) and have a -.7 rebounding margin. (232nd). They also give up 44 percent field goal shooting (195th) and 34.3 percent from 3 (159th).
Coach Buzz Williams has the Hokies pointed toward an NCAA tournament berth. They are currently a No. 8 seed in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's bracket on ESPN.com (Virginia is a 4). It would be Tech's first berth since the 2006-07 season, which is also the last time both UVa and Tech went dancing at the same time. Tech is 5-4 after nine ACC games for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Williams has done a fine job in his third year with Tech, which was dreadful in his first year and then much improved last season, going 20-15 (10-8 ACC) and getting to the second round of the NIT, where it lost at BYU after beating Princeton in the first round. UVa lost at Tech last season, 70-68, before it was fully known how much better Tech was. That loss ended up not being terrible for the tournament resume. The team bounced back for a 67-49 win at home against Tech. In the midst of this tough stretch of games, this is a contest the Cavaliers need to win if they hope to compete for a top seed in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. I have a hard time seeing the 'Hoos beating the Hokies in Blacksburg in a couple weeks, where UVa hasn't played well for a few years now. Two years prior to the 2015-16 season, when Tech was bad, UVa barely eked out victories.
LeDay makes Tech go, and he was great last year in Blacksburg and then not great in Charlottesville. Normally about a 30 percent 3-point shooter, and 27.3 percent this year, he hit 3 of 4 from beyond the arc in the upset win last year and had 22 points, and then just 1 of 4 in the loss (1 of 7 from the field overall) when he scored seven points. Allen has been very good recently, averaging 16.3 points on 62 percent shooting (55 percent from 3) in the past six games since returning from a head injury. Overall, he is hitting 48.5 percent of his 3s, which is the level London Perrantes was at a year ago. Hill and Bibbs are capable 3-point shooters as well, right above and below 40 percent, respectively. Clarke is a slasher and hard worker that can get to the free throw line. Indeed, Tech is once again much better at getting to the line than UVa, ranking 122nd in free throws attempted (479), 22.8 per game, although the Hokies were even better last year, averaging 27.5 per game.
If UVa, a good shooting team in its own right, can match or exceed Tech in field goal percentage, especially from 3-point land, and at least draw somewhat favorable calls and not get crushed in free throw attempts, I think it will win this game. The atmosphere will be charged, and if UVa uses the crowd for fuel and plays its game and plays solid defense on the perimeter, the Wahoos will win, though I'm expecting a closer game than the 11-point line (UVa as favorite) indicates.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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