Falcons (13-5) vs. Patriots (16-2) in Houston, 6:30 p.m. Fox
Conference championship weekend: 1-1 Playoffs: 8-2
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick vs. ... Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn? Yes, on one side for this edition of the Super Bowl, we have perhaps the greatest player-coach combo in NFL and maybe sports history. And on the other, we have a quarterback just trying to break through and be recognized as elite paired with a second-year coach who just made his first foray into the playoffs. So who takes the Lombardi Trophy?
Why New England will win: The Patriots went 14-2, and, despite what you think about their division, they were the most complete team throughout the regular season. Belichick and Brady are a rock-solid tandem going for their fifth Super Bowl title. Give Belichick two weeks to scheme for an offense, even the caliber of the Falcons' unit, and he will certainly slow it down. New England boasted the best defense on a points per game basis this season. On offense, Brady seemingly won't be stopping anytime soon and is more efficient than ever. The cast of characters changes, and the machine hums along. This year, he has Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell. With tight end Rob Gronkowski hurt again, Martellus Bennett has filled in nicely. And at running back, the Patriots have LeGarrette Blount, who might be the best tailback the Patriots have had on a Belichick Super Bowl team if you look back in their history. James White and Dion Lewis are smaller backs that can do different things for the Patriots. When Lewis is healthy and playing over the past two seasons, the Patriots are 16-0.
Why Atlanta will win: The Patriots might have a great defense, but they haven't seen an offense like the Falcons possess, and did not have a tough road to the playoffs, facing Brock Osweiler and the
Texans and the Steelers, who just weren't that great this season despite an impressive winning streak. NFL MVP Matt Ryan had the best season of his career and has incredible weapons at his disposal in Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Justin Hardy, and complementary tailbacks Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, each capable of having a big game. The defense, while it has given up a lot of yards, has performed well in the red zone and was also fourth in the NFL this year in turnover differential (+11). And Quinn, the former Seahawks' defensive coordinator, has come up with great plans to slow down great players before, crushing the Broncos and Peyton Manning in the 2014 Super Bowl and, the next year, holding the Patriots to 14 points through three quarters before a questionable offensive play call by Seattle at the end of the game helped New England win its fourth championship.
The pick: I'm going to be boring and go with the Patriots. It is just really tough to go against Brady and Belichick almost as a default pick for the title each year now. The Falcons have made great strides, and there's plenty of reason to think they will break through at some point in the future, but I'm not sure if this year is it. I like Belichick coming up with a good plan to slow Atlanta down enough, and think Brady will figure out how to score on the Falcons. The MVP of the NFL hasn't fared that well in recent Super Bowls, so that doesn't bode well for Ryan. New England brings a better overall combo of offense and defense to the game that will put it over the top.
Patriots 31, Falcons 27
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