Week 4 college picks

Last week: 8-1 Season: 19-7

Saturday
N.C. State at No. 12 Florida State, Noon ABC/ESPN2
Florida State 20, N.C. State 10

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech, 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Georgia Tech 38, Pittsburgh 28

Old Dominion at No. 13 Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech 41, Old Dominion 14

National game of the week
No. 16 TCU at No. 6 Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
The over/under for this game is 71 points, and my pick is higher than that, and even I could be low. These two gifted offenses should definitely light up the scoreboard. But the Cowboys, with QB Mason Rudolph and what has been called the best set of receivers in the country, should hold serve at home.
Oklahoma State 45, TCU 30

Duke at North Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
North Carolina 34, Duke 31

No. 17 Mississippi State at No. 11 Georgia, 7 p.m. ESPN
Georgia 30, Mississippi State 27

No. 4 Penn State at Iowa, 7:30 p.m. ABC
Penn State 24, Iowa 14

Notre Dame at Michigan State, 8 p.m. Fox
Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 24

Today
Virginia at Boise State, 8 p.m. ESPN2
The Wahoos gave a much needed solid performance last week in a home win, 38-18, over Connecticut. The outcome of the contest was never in doubt as Virginia raced to a 24-0 halftime lead. The defense gave up two drives deep into the red zone in the first half, but two big turnovers, a fumble by QB Bryant Shirreffs that was recovered by Micah Kiser and then an interception in the end zone by Brenton Nelson, turned away the Huskies. The offense gave its best outing since scoring 49 points against Central Michigan last year. Kurt Benkert completed 30 of 40 passes for a school-record 455 yards and three touchdowns, all of which were long completions to Andre Levrone, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Doni Dowling. Benkert looked much more poised, ready, excited, and focused than against Indiana. The run game, which had failed to produce much of anything in the first two games, was good as well, churning out 171 yards on 5.5 yards per carry, with Jordan Ellis leading the way with 95 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.

UVa has another big opportunity this week on the blue turf of Boise State. The Broncos are 2-1, with a 24-13 win over Troy, 47-44 triple-overtime loss to top-25 team Washington State, and a 28-14 victory over New Mexico. They don't look like the Broncos of a few years ago under Chris Petersen, but Bryan Harsin seems like a solid coach who is continuing to produce good teams at Boise State. He's 33-10 in his fourth year as the team's head coach. Two years ago, the Broncos came to Scott Stadium and laid a smackdown on the Cavaliers, 56-14, in one of the more embarrassing losses in the
Mike London era, and there were several. This is a big opportunity because a win could be a turning point for the season. UVa hasn't been 3-1 since 2007, and it has a chance to get to that mark tonight. Maybe the 'Hoos will surprise me, but I still think this type of game is a tough game to ask them to win. Boise State has struggled a bit on offense this year, but the defense has been stout, and there haven't been any signs this team isn't a bowl team yet. The competition isn't always the best, but Boise State pretty much never loses on its home field.

Much like the UConn game, Virginia beat Central Michigan last season early in the year, as I already stated. The two wins could certainly end up meaning the same thing -- not much -- if UVa doesn't follow up its victory from this past Saturday with better showings in future games. That CMU team actually went on to make a bowl game. It doesn't seem like UConn will be doing so. So last week was certainly an encouraging step, and the team took care of business and looked good doing so, but that doesn't mean a lot on its own. UVa's two wins came in back-to-back games last year, but that didn't translate to momentum for the rest of the campaign, as the Cavaliers of course ended up with just a 2-10 record. I think the team does look better than last season, but there's still a ways to go I think before it can step up and snag a big win on the road like this. Obviously fans are hopeful this team won't end up stuck on two wins, but there are other probably more winnable games than this one left on the schedule. I think we will see improvement tonight, and I guess the hope is the team looks at least better than it did against Indiana, a game that was pretty much not in doubt in the second half, but the 'Hoos also weren't humiliated. I like Virginia's defense to give another strong performance, and it will come down to the offense. If it makes plays and can look more like the team from last week than the one that lost to Indiana, maybe an upset is possible. But I think reality will land somewhere in the middle, and we will watch a better Virginia team still make some mistakes and come up short, but look better and continue to take small baby steps in Bronco Mendenhall's second season.
Boise State 31, Virginia 21

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