Week 11 college picks

Last week: 6-5 Season: 59-32

This week, we have another loaded slate with games with College Football Playoff implications. I've had a busy week on the blog, so this will be quick, I think.

No. 12 Michigan State at No. 13 Ohio State, Noon Fox
Ohio State 34, Michigan State 27

No. 15 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Iowa State, Noon ABC/ESPN2
Iowa State 31, Oklahoma State 27

No. 23 N.C. State at Boston College, Noon ABC/ESPN2
Boston College 27, N.C. State 24

No. 17 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 24

Wake Forest at Syracuse, 3 p.m. ACC Network
Syracuse 31, Wake Forest 28

Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
No. 1 Georgia at No. 10 Auburn, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 31, Auburn 26

Florida State at No. 4 Clemson 3:30 p.m. ESPN
Clemson 31, Florida State 20

No. 20 Iowa at No. 8 Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m. ABC
Wisconsin 24, Iowa 17

No. 2 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. ESPN
Alabama 31, Mississippi State 17

National game of the week
No. 3 Notre Dame at No. 7 Miami, 8 p.m. ABC
Miami looked the best its looked all year last week against Virginia Tech, but Notre Dame, despite one loss, at home by one point to now-No. 1 Georgia, has looked stronger throughout the entire season.
Notre Dame 35, Miami 31

No. 6 TCU at No. 5 Oklahoma, Fox 8 p.m.
Oklahoma 33, TCU 26

Virginia at Louisville, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
The point spread on this game is Louisville by 12, which seems high to me. Heisman-winning Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is great again and has improved as a passer -- from about a 56 percent passer to about 60 -- and rusher, if that was possible. He leads the ACC in passing and rushing yardage. However, Louisville's defense has been atrocious, and the Cardinals are actually just 5-4 and looking for that sixth win like UVa was last week. Against Power Five conference competition, Louisville has yet to give up fewer than 28 points. On the flip side, UVa has that sixth win, so will the Cavs be fat and happy? I don't think so. The players are saying they are hungry for more, and I
believe them. There's still a chance, however slim, that the 'Hoos could win the Coastal Division title, but they must win out and have Miami lose to Pittsburgh in a few weeks (this would include UVa toppling Miami). Plus, there's just the motivation of continuing to prove the naysayers wrong. "Yeah, you guys got to a bowl, but you're still not very good/it's easy to get to a bowl," etc. Also, each game the past three years between these teams has been closer (23-21 UVa in 2014, 38-31 Louisville in 2015, 33-25 Louisville in 2016). The pressure is off the Wahoos to get that bowl-clinching victory, and they can just play free now. I think it could help them, given how much they seemed to acknowledge that against BC and Pitt it did indeed hold them back. I'll be somewhat disappointed and surprised if UVa doesn't at least keep this one close for awhile. But let's get crazy. I don't make these picks in this space for money. I'm taking the 'Hoos as the double-digit underdog to win straight up. Virginia plays free, gets it going against Louisville's shaky defense, and the Cardinals play a little tight/unmotivated, and UVa's defense does just enough to slow Lamar Jackson.
Virginia 34, Louisville 33

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