Last week: 6-3 Season: 78-43
Conference championship weekend got off to a good start Friday night with No. 10 USC defeating No. 12 Stanford, 31-28 in the Pac-12 championship for the Trojans' first conference title since 2008. Every time USC would try to pull away, Stanford would score to make it a close game. USC is on the outside looking in likely too far away to try to make the four-team playoff. Here is the rest of the top 10: 1. Clemson 2. Auburn 3. Oklahoma 4. Wisconsin 5. Alabama 6. Georgia 7. Miami 8. Ohio State 9. Penn State.
The ACC, SEC, and maybe Big Ten championships are win-and-in scenarios for the conference champs to get into the playoff. The consensus seems to be Miami will get a bid if it beats Clemson, but I think the Hurricanes are very overrated after losing to Pittsburgh last week, 24-14, and having several close games this year. Beating the Tigers would be a very big win, though. Most people don't think that will happen, but it looks like Miami is in if it pulls off the upset. Auburn is looking to be the first two-loss team to make the playoff and has put itself in that position by knocking off two No. 1 teams the past three weeks in Georgia and then Alabama last week. Georgia, though it is behind Alabama, would likely jump the Tide if it beats Auburn in the rematch and make the playoff. Alabama is thought to be in should Oklahoma or Wisconsin slip up. But Wisconsin is an underdog against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and many have the Buckeyes in should they beat the Badgers. If OSU does prevail, the debate between it and Alabama will rage.
On to the games:
American Athletic championship
No. 20 Memphis (10-1) at No. 14 Central Florida (11-0), Noon ABC
The winner of this game will be the highest ranked Group of Five team, meaning it gets an automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl game (Group of Five are the conferences that aren't Power Five and include this one and the CUSA, Sun Belt, Mountain West, and MAC). The Knights beat the Tigers at home earlier in the year, 40-13, for Memphis' only loss, and I think the same thing will happen in the rematch, though the score will be closer. UCF coach Scott Frost is a name to watch out for as the college football coaching carousel continues to spin.
Central Florida 40, Memphis 33
MAC championship
Akron (7-5) vs. Toledo (10-2) in Detroit, Noon ESPN
Toledo 38, Akron 24
CUSA championship
North Texas (9-3) at Florida Atlantic (9-3), Noon ESPN2
FAU, the Owls, are coached by Lane Kiffin, and the team has won eight straight games, including a 69-31 romp over the Mean Green at home earlier this season. North Texas' other losses came against SMU and Iowa, and it hasn't lost since its defeat against FAU. The Owls lost to Navy, Wisconsin, and Buffalo. Kiffin is in his first year, but he could be another name that pops up in coaching searches.
Florida Atlantic 45, North Texas 31
Big 12 championship
No. 11 TCU (10-2) vs. No. 3 Oklahoma (11-1) in Arlington, 12:30 p.m. Fox
Like USC, TCU is too far out of the top four to jump into it even if it were to upset OU. But the Sooners beat the Horned Frogs three weeks ago, 38-20, at home. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is the leading candidate for the Heisman, and I don't see this rematch ending up a lot different than the first meeting. Interestingly, both teams lost to Iowa State, which had a very solid 7-5 regular season under first-year coach Matt Campbell.
Oklahoma 34, TCU 24
SEC championship
No. 6 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 2 Auburn (10-2) in Atlanta, 4 p.m. CBS
The Tigers dominated the Bulldogs, 40-17, three weeks ago at Auburn when Georgia was ranked No. 1. But now the 'Dawgs have a chance for revenge and if they win, they are almost certainly going to make the playoff. The rematch being in Atlanta should help even things out for Georgia, which fell victim to Auburn on the road just as Alabama did last week in the Iron Bowl, 26-14. Auburn's top running back, Kerryon Johnson, sustained a shoulder injury last week and will be a game-time decision today. The Tigers' defense held the Bulldogs' one-two backfield punch of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel (more than 250 yards per game) to just 46 yards in the first meeting. I think Georgia and freshman QB Jake Fromm will be more ready this time around and in more favorable conditions, they trip up Auburn, which is unable to get up for a third huge game in a month.
Georgia 26, Auburn 24
Mountain West championship
No. 25 Fresno State (9-3) at Boise State (9-3), 7:45 p.m. ESPN
Boise State 24, Fresno State 20
ACC championship
No. 7 Miami (11-1) vs. No. 1 Clemson (11-1) in Charlotte, 8 p.m. ABC
Except for tripping up at Syracuse when QB Kelly Bryant was already banged up and then got even more hurt, the Tigers have mostly dominated their competition, with 10 of their 11 wins coming by more than a touchdown. Only the N.C. State victory was close in the final seconds. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, as I stated previously were close to losing a number of games before finally getting upset by Pittsburgh last week. Miami struggled to wins against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Virginia. Granted, Miami did a great job in prime-time night games at home by blowing out Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, but I just think Clemson is clearly the better team. And Bryant is healthy and rolling, as is Clemson's dominating defense. Miami QB Malik Rosier struggled against Pitt last week, so that does not bode well for the 'Canes in this game.
Clemson 31, Miami 20
Big Ten championship
No. 8 Ohio State (10-2) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (12-0) in Indianapolis, 8 p.m. Fox
The Buckeyes are favored by a touchdown in this game and expected to make the playoff with a win, much to the chagrin of many, because OSU has two double-digit losses, one at home to Oklahoma, 31-16 (OK, not terrible), but also a 55-24 embarrassment at Iowa, which is a solid team but went just 7-5 (bad). However, I don't think it is going to matter, because I think the Badgers will win with a dominating defense that has allowed just 12 points per game and the running of tailback Jonathan Taylor, who has more than 1,700 yards this season. Wisconsin has been criticized for its weak schedule, the major reason it only this week got into the top four despite being undefeated. Yes, the West Division of the Big Ten left something to be desired this season, but the Badgers mostly dominated the competition, winning every game by at least eight and most by double digits, and unlike OSU, did not falter any. Wisconsin also beat Iowa, 38-14, albeit that game wasn't at Iowa, and the Badgers defeated Michigan, 24-10, about the same margin by which the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines (31-20). Ohio State also needed a perfect fourth-quarter comeback at home to beat Penn State, or it would've ended up with three losses and PSU would be in this title game. Also, OSU QB J.T. Barrett has arthroscopic knee surgery this week and should play, but that could be a development to watch.
Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 24
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