No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Maryland-Baltimore County, 9:20 p.m. Friday TNT
Virginia received the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament Sunday and will face Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) in the first round. Villanova, Xavier, and Kansas got the other No. 1 seeds. Syracuse, Oklahoma, and Arizona State were some of the surprises to make the tournament, while teams such as Oklahoma State, Louisville, Notre Dame, USC, and Middle Tennessee are feeling snubbed. Seven other ACC teams made it in addition to the Orange and Cavaliers: Duke, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and N.C. State.
The Cavaliers must take the Retrievers' best shot sans De'Andre Hunter. Here's more on UMBC:
Record: 24-10, 12-4 America East
Coach: Ryan Odom, second year, 45-23. He is the son of Dave Odom, who was a coach at East Carolina, Wake Forest, and South Carolina and also an assistant at UVa from 1982-89. Ryan Odom was an assistant at Virginia Tech from 2003-10.
Scorers in double digits: Senior guard Jairus Lyles (20.2), senior guard K.J. Maura (11.4), junior forward Joe Sherburne (10.9), sophomore forward Arkel Lamar (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Lamar (5.8), Lyles (5.6), Sherburne (3.9)
Assist leaders: Maura (5.2), Lyles (3.5), senior guard Jourdan Grant (2.6)
Notable: Grant averages 7.6 points. Sophomore forward Max Curran averages 4.8 points. Lyles and
Maura average two steals. Lamar and Sherburne average one.
Best win: at Vermont, which was 27-7, in the America East tournament title game
Worst win: 72-67 at Maine. The Black Bears went 6-26.
Other wins: Central Pennsylvania College, Chicago State, Nicholls, Shenandoah, The Citadel, Delaware State, Coppin State, Northern Kentucky, Centenary, New Hampshire (twice), Maine a second time, UMass Lowell (three times), Hartford (three times), Binghamton (twice), Albany, Stony Brook
Best loss: 78-67 at SMU to begin the season. The Mustangs went 17-16
Worst loss: at Albany, 83-39. The Great Danes ended up 22-10, but behind the Retrievers with a 10-6 conference record.
Other losses: Arizona, Vermont (twice), Colgate, Army, Towson, Maryland, Stony Brook
What UMBC does well: The Retrievers are good 3-point shooters at 38.7 percent (34th in the nation). They record 7.5 steals per game (36th) and allow 69.5 ppg (102nd). They do a pretty good job of taking care of the ball, turning it over just 12.1 times per game (tied-101st). Their turnover margin is +2.7 (37th) and their assist-turnover ratio is +1.28 (57th). UMBC tallies 15.4 assists per game (61st).
What UMBC doesn't do well: Despite a good mark from beyond the arc, the Retrievers aren't very good from the field overall at 44.5 percent (188th), and they also really struggle on free throws (64.9 percent (337th). It adds up to just a so-so offense that scores 73.9 ppg (170th). The overall ppg allowed stat looks pretty good, but UMBC permits foes to shoot 44 percent (190th) and 35.3 percent on 3s (203rd). The Retrievers aren't good on the boards, owning a -1.4 rebounding margin (255th). They also foul a decent amount, with 562 on the year (145th). They have shot 608 free throws (202nd).
Phony Bennett, a Twitter account parody of U.Va. coach Tony Bennett, tweeted yesterday, "If you don't pick the Hoos to win all while simultaneously irrationally worrying that we will become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 then you're not a true fan of UVa sports."
It's true, but even without Hunter, it seems like an upset should be unlikely. The Retrievers' ability
from the 3-point line makes them dangerous (Lyles, 38.7 percent; Maura, 42.3; Sherburne, 42.3; Lamar, 43.2; Grant, 36.8; the team has attempted 894 3-pointers, 18th most), and Lyles (who actually played one year at VCU then transferred after not playing much) seems like an incredible scorer -- he hit the game-winning 3 in the America East title game at Vermont -- but there are definitely holes in UMBC's offense, and it doesn't look like it is very good at rebounding or defense. It also doesn't appear to be a tall team, with Curran at 6-9, Daniel Akin at 6-8, and Nolan Gerrity at 6-10 the only regulars over 6-6, and those guys don't usually play more than 10 or so minutes per game. Lyles is only 6-2, and Maura is 5-8.
The Retrievers have won 24 games, but none came against Power Five teams, and they only played two such teams -- Arizona and Maryland, which beat them 103-78 and 66-45, respectively. UMBC lost by double digits to SMU, Army, and Towson, and despite the win over Vermont, were also beaten twice by the Catamounts by an average of 21.5 points.
As has been discussed, the Hunter loss is a blow for Virginia. But if you remember back, he wasn't really a factor for the Cavaliers in the pre-ACC slate, scoring in double figures only three times, and UVa went 11-1. Plus, the Cavaliers will have had about three days to prepare without him, so Bennett should be able to come up with some adjustments and install them, whatever they might be. Some people are pointing to the 2014-15 UVa team that suffered a drop in success when Justin Anderson broke his finger as a comparison. He came back for the NCAA tournament but was never the same, and the team had a hard time reintegrating him back into the rotation. Despite being 30-3, it lost in the second round to Michigan State. I see this as being a little different. Yes, the 'Hoos have yet to play without Hunter, but like I said, they've shown they can win, and big, without him playing well. And they know he won't be there, so the players know they'll each have to step up a little. It's not like he will miss one or two games and then be back. The players know this is for the rest of however long the season lasts, so it's go time. No holding back now -- just play hard for Hunter.
Hopefully, UVa can work out whatever kinks it might have against UMBC, survive a second-round matchup against Kansas State or Creighton, and then it would get a few days to regroup and prepare for a probable Sweet 16 matchup against Kentucky or Arizona. At that point, we will have seen how the team looks without Hunter, plus it will get even more practice without him. Anything is possible once you get a couple rounds into the dance. Just get through these first two games and see what happens. UMBC has some good qualities, but optimistically speaking, UVa should not make its fans sweat in this one. I'll be modest with my prediction, but the victory should be bigger.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
Virginia received the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament Sunday and will face Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) in the first round. Villanova, Xavier, and Kansas got the other No. 1 seeds. Syracuse, Oklahoma, and Arizona State were some of the surprises to make the tournament, while teams such as Oklahoma State, Louisville, Notre Dame, USC, and Middle Tennessee are feeling snubbed. Seven other ACC teams made it in addition to the Orange and Cavaliers: Duke, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and N.C. State.
The Cavaliers must take the Retrievers' best shot sans De'Andre Hunter. Here's more on UMBC:
Record: 24-10, 12-4 America East
Coach: Ryan Odom, second year, 45-23. He is the son of Dave Odom, who was a coach at East Carolina, Wake Forest, and South Carolina and also an assistant at UVa from 1982-89. Ryan Odom was an assistant at Virginia Tech from 2003-10.
Scorers in double digits: Senior guard Jairus Lyles (20.2), senior guard K.J. Maura (11.4), junior forward Joe Sherburne (10.9), sophomore forward Arkel Lamar (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Lamar (5.8), Lyles (5.6), Sherburne (3.9)
Assist leaders: Maura (5.2), Lyles (3.5), senior guard Jourdan Grant (2.6)
Notable: Grant averages 7.6 points. Sophomore forward Max Curran averages 4.8 points. Lyles and
 |
| Jairus Lyles hit the game-winning 3-pointer against Vermont in the America East championship game. |
Best win: at Vermont, which was 27-7, in the America East tournament title game
Worst win: 72-67 at Maine. The Black Bears went 6-26.
Other wins: Central Pennsylvania College, Chicago State, Nicholls, Shenandoah, The Citadel, Delaware State, Coppin State, Northern Kentucky, Centenary, New Hampshire (twice), Maine a second time, UMass Lowell (three times), Hartford (three times), Binghamton (twice), Albany, Stony Brook
Best loss: 78-67 at SMU to begin the season. The Mustangs went 17-16
Worst loss: at Albany, 83-39. The Great Danes ended up 22-10, but behind the Retrievers with a 10-6 conference record.
Other losses: Arizona, Vermont (twice), Colgate, Army, Towson, Maryland, Stony Brook
What UMBC does well: The Retrievers are good 3-point shooters at 38.7 percent (34th in the nation). They record 7.5 steals per game (36th) and allow 69.5 ppg (102nd). They do a pretty good job of taking care of the ball, turning it over just 12.1 times per game (tied-101st). Their turnover margin is +2.7 (37th) and their assist-turnover ratio is +1.28 (57th). UMBC tallies 15.4 assists per game (61st).
What UMBC doesn't do well: Despite a good mark from beyond the arc, the Retrievers aren't very good from the field overall at 44.5 percent (188th), and they also really struggle on free throws (64.9 percent (337th). It adds up to just a so-so offense that scores 73.9 ppg (170th). The overall ppg allowed stat looks pretty good, but UMBC permits foes to shoot 44 percent (190th) and 35.3 percent on 3s (203rd). The Retrievers aren't good on the boards, owning a -1.4 rebounding margin (255th). They also foul a decent amount, with 562 on the year (145th). They have shot 608 free throws (202nd).
Phony Bennett, a Twitter account parody of U.Va. coach Tony Bennett, tweeted yesterday, "If you don't pick the Hoos to win all while simultaneously irrationally worrying that we will become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 then you're not a true fan of UVa sports."
It's true, but even without Hunter, it seems like an upset should be unlikely. The Retrievers' ability
The Retrievers have won 24 games, but none came against Power Five teams, and they only played two such teams -- Arizona and Maryland, which beat them 103-78 and 66-45, respectively. UMBC lost by double digits to SMU, Army, and Towson, and despite the win over Vermont, were also beaten twice by the Catamounts by an average of 21.5 points.
As has been discussed, the Hunter loss is a blow for Virginia. But if you remember back, he wasn't really a factor for the Cavaliers in the pre-ACC slate, scoring in double figures only three times, and UVa went 11-1. Plus, the Cavaliers will have had about three days to prepare without him, so Bennett should be able to come up with some adjustments and install them, whatever they might be. Some people are pointing to the 2014-15 UVa team that suffered a drop in success when Justin Anderson broke his finger as a comparison. He came back for the NCAA tournament but was never the same, and the team had a hard time reintegrating him back into the rotation. Despite being 30-3, it lost in the second round to Michigan State. I see this as being a little different. Yes, the 'Hoos have yet to play without Hunter, but like I said, they've shown they can win, and big, without him playing well. And they know he won't be there, so the players know they'll each have to step up a little. It's not like he will miss one or two games and then be back. The players know this is for the rest of however long the season lasts, so it's go time. No holding back now -- just play hard for Hunter.
Hopefully, UVa can work out whatever kinks it might have against UMBC, survive a second-round matchup against Kansas State or Creighton, and then it would get a few days to regroup and prepare for a probable Sweet 16 matchup against Kentucky or Arizona. At that point, we will have seen how the team looks without Hunter, plus it will get even more practice without him. Anything is possible once you get a couple rounds into the dance. Just get through these first two games and see what happens. UMBC has some good qualities, but optimistically speaking, UVa should not make its fans sweat in this one. I'll be modest with my prediction, but the victory should be bigger.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
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