Last week was rough, as I went 4-6. I missed on Ohio-Virginia (nice job, Hoos), Toledo-Miami as I went for the upset, but instead the Rockets upset me, Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh, Auburn-LSU, Boise State-Oklahoma State (again going for the upset), and Baylor-Duke (the Blue Devils overcame a couple key injuries and won by 13).
On the season, I sit at 20-14. There are lots of fringe good matchups this week -- and I'm picking what might be a record 19 games -- but only two that pit two top-25 teams, Stanford at Oregon, semi-exciting, and Texas A&M at Alabama (good luck Aggies).
No. 2 Georgia (3-0) at Missouri (3-0), Noon ESPN
Georgia 38, Missouri 17
No. 8 Notre Dame (3-0) at Wake Forest (2-1), Noon ABC
Notre Dame 27, Wake Forest 23
No. 23 Boston College (3-0) at Purdue (0-3), Noon ESPN2
Boston College 37, Purdue 33
Minnesota (3-0) at Maryland (2-1), Noon Big Ten Network
This one is for my Gopher friend, Ryan Pronk. Hey man, is it a good thing or bad thing I'm taking Minnesota? By the way, Terps still suck! (even though they aren't in the ACC)
Minnesota 26, Maryland 23
Pittsburgh (2-1) at North Carolina (0-2), Noon ACC Network
Pittsburgh 31, North Carolina 24
No. 22 Texas A&M (2-1) at No. 1 Alabama (3-0)
Alabama 48, Texas A&M 24
No. 3 Clemson (3-0) at Georgia Tech (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 20
No. 13 Virginia Tech (2-0) at Old Dominion (0-3), 3:30 p.m. CBSSN
Virginia Tech 52, Old Dominion 10
Florida International (2-1) at No. 21 Miami (2-1), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
Miami 45, FIU 21
Northern Illinois (1-2) at Florida State (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
It's hard to overstate how atrocious FSU's offense has been under new coach Willie Taggart. Needless to say, my prediction of 8-9 wins for the Seminoles is in jeopardy. Apparently, the Huskies' offense is just as dreadful. They scored seven points against Iowa, six against Utah, and then struggled in beating Central Michigan, 24-16 (CMU is 0-3 and lost to perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas 31-7). I'm still tempted to take the Huskies. But I'll go with the 'Noles.
FSU 16, NIU 10
Connecticut (1-2) at Syracuse (3-0), 4 p.m. ESPNNews
The Huskies have yet to give up fewer than 49 points. Forty-nine! They beat CAA member Rhode Island, 56-49, last week. They've lost to UCF, 56-17, and Boise State, 62-7. Syracuse hasn't played anyone of note despite the 3-0 start, because FSU doesn't count right now. But this should be a romp.
Syracuse 55, Connecticut 24
No. 17 TCU (2-1) at Texas (2-1), 4:30 p.m. Fox
TCU 33, Texas 30
No. 14 Mississippi State (3-0) at Kentucky (3-0), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Mississippi State 37, Kentucky 28
N.C. State (2-0) at Marshall (2-0), 7 p.m. CBSSN
N.C. State 31, Marshall 23
Florida (2-1) at Tennessee (2-1), 7 p.m. ESPN
Tennessee 23, Florida 21
National game of the week
No. 7 Stanford (3-0) at No. 20 Oregon (3-0), 8 p.m. ABC
Stanford 27, Oregon 20
No. 18 Wisconsin (2-1) at Iowa (3-0), 8:35 p.m. Fox
This is a sneaky good matchup. Kinnick Stadium at night is a tough place to play. The Hawkeyes nearly beat Penn State there last season. Wisconsin had College Football Playoff hopes, but those have been significantly dampened with a home loss to BYU last week.
Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17
Arizona State (2-1) at No. 10 Washington (2-1), 10:30 p.m. ESPN
Washington 24, Arizona State 13
Louisville (2-1) at Virginia (2-1), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers and Cardinals open up their ACC slates with the annual cross-division "rivalry." Louisville has had the edge in football except for 2014, when UVa upset No. 23 Louisville, 23-21, at home, and UVa has had a significant edge in men's basketball. I put "rivalry" in quotes not because of the lack of competitive games in the two major sports, but because I don't consider Louisville a rival of UVa's. I don't really like the school, which has given itself a bad reputation with scandals through
the years, but I don't have a huge reason to root hard against their sports teams. Louisville replaced Maryland in the ACC, and I definitely disliked the Terrapins more when they were in the conference than I do Louisville now. And Maryland is still probably more of a recruiting rival given its location.
This is a big opportunity for UVa. The 'Hoos are actually favored over the Cardinals for the first time since they joined the ACC. The line started out with Virginia as about a field goal favorite, and now the line on ESPN.com is up to 5.5. It is a winnable home game, and if the team can get to 3-1, all of a sudden you are seeing possibilities open up in the schedule where another six-win campaign is looking possible. Lose and fall to 2-2, and it gets much harder to get a bowl berth with tough contests against N.C. State and Miami in the next two weeks, and 4-5 wins again becomes the realistic target.
Louisville has struggled to its 2-1 mark. In the opener, it lost to Alabama, 51-14. No shame there. The Crimson Tide is absolutely mauling everything in its path right now, and had UVa faced it, I maybe would've considered a 51-14 a good loss. "Fourteen points on 'Bama?? We'll take it!" But the Cardinals have been unimpressive the past two weeks. Against FCS foe Indiana State, Louisville won, 31-7, but it was just 14-7 after three quarters. And last week, Louisville was down 14-0 at home
to Western Kentucky, which had just lost to Maine the previous week, but pulled out a 20-17 victory.
The offense has really sputtered with Lamar Jackson now backing up the Ravens' Joe Flacco. The aptly named new QB, Juwon Pass, has really struggled, and he's been pulled from games the previous two weeks in favor of redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham, who has run and passed better, sparking the Cardinals. He's been named the starter this week. Cunningham, fairly light at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, has completed 16 of 25 passes (64 percent) for 163 yards, one touchdown, and zero picks. He's rushed for 183 yards, which easily leads the team, has averaged 5.5 ypc, and has one TD. Dae Williams, 6-2 and 232 pounds, is big and has two rushing TDs but only 65 yards on 3.4 ypc. As expected going into the season, Jaylen Smith has led the Louisville receiving corps but hasn't gotten many opportunities. He has six catches and a TD, and Seth Dawkins has six receptions as well.
Louisville lost a lot from its 2017 defense and has been up and down thus far. When the weather has been nice, UVa's offense has been explosive, as demonstrated against Richmond and Ohio. Those defenses are probably not the caliber of the one the Cardinals possess, but the Cavaliers are capable of putting up impressive numbers. I wouldn't expect Indiana's defense to be as good as Louisville's, but the Hoosiers made UVa look ordinary. But that was in the downpour. The forecast in Charlottesville earlier in the week was for rain, but now it looks clear. So that should help the 'Hoos.
On paper, it is easy to see why UVa is favored. As expected, Louisville lost to Alabama, but its performance did nothing to raise its profile, and since then, it has mostly struggled against teams it probably would've blown out the past two seasons. Meanwhile, UVa has looked really good on offense in two games and really good on defense in two games. And the one loss came in really bad weather.
But as a UVa fan, you know this situation makes me nervous. The Wahoos a home ACC favorite? When's the last time that happened? Was UVa favored vs. Boston College last season when the Cavaliers entered at 5-1? The Eagles won, 41-10. Whether Virginia was favored or not, it got ugly. Louisville has really struggled, but Cunningham has ignited the offense, and that worries me. Coach Bobby Petrino deciding to put him in from the start might be just what the Cardinals need. I think UVa has shown it can score enough to win some games, and being at home with nice weather helps on that side of the ball, but Louisville might have found just enough on offense to squeak this one out. I picked against UVa last week, and we saw how that turned out. Good for me as a fan and good for the team. Bad for my picks record. But I'm not predicting for money. Why mess with a good thing? Like last week, this is a game where a typical UVa team might lose. So I'm hoping for this edition of the Wahoos to prove me wrong again.
Louisville 27, Virginia 24
On the season, I sit at 20-14. There are lots of fringe good matchups this week -- and I'm picking what might be a record 19 games -- but only two that pit two top-25 teams, Stanford at Oregon, semi-exciting, and Texas A&M at Alabama (good luck Aggies).
No. 2 Georgia (3-0) at Missouri (3-0), Noon ESPN
Georgia 38, Missouri 17
No. 8 Notre Dame (3-0) at Wake Forest (2-1), Noon ABC
Notre Dame 27, Wake Forest 23
No. 23 Boston College (3-0) at Purdue (0-3), Noon ESPN2
Boston College 37, Purdue 33
Minnesota (3-0) at Maryland (2-1), Noon Big Ten Network
This one is for my Gopher friend, Ryan Pronk. Hey man, is it a good thing or bad thing I'm taking Minnesota? By the way, Terps still suck! (even though they aren't in the ACC)
Minnesota 26, Maryland 23
Pittsburgh (2-1) at North Carolina (0-2), Noon ACC Network
Pittsburgh 31, North Carolina 24
No. 22 Texas A&M (2-1) at No. 1 Alabama (3-0)
Alabama 48, Texas A&M 24
No. 3 Clemson (3-0) at Georgia Tech (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 20
No. 13 Virginia Tech (2-0) at Old Dominion (0-3), 3:30 p.m. CBSSN
Virginia Tech 52, Old Dominion 10
Florida International (2-1) at No. 21 Miami (2-1), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
Miami 45, FIU 21
Northern Illinois (1-2) at Florida State (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
It's hard to overstate how atrocious FSU's offense has been under new coach Willie Taggart. Needless to say, my prediction of 8-9 wins for the Seminoles is in jeopardy. Apparently, the Huskies' offense is just as dreadful. They scored seven points against Iowa, six against Utah, and then struggled in beating Central Michigan, 24-16 (CMU is 0-3 and lost to perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas 31-7). I'm still tempted to take the Huskies. But I'll go with the 'Noles.
FSU 16, NIU 10
Connecticut (1-2) at Syracuse (3-0), 4 p.m. ESPNNews
The Huskies have yet to give up fewer than 49 points. Forty-nine! They beat CAA member Rhode Island, 56-49, last week. They've lost to UCF, 56-17, and Boise State, 62-7. Syracuse hasn't played anyone of note despite the 3-0 start, because FSU doesn't count right now. But this should be a romp.
Syracuse 55, Connecticut 24
No. 17 TCU (2-1) at Texas (2-1), 4:30 p.m. Fox
TCU 33, Texas 30
No. 14 Mississippi State (3-0) at Kentucky (3-0), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Mississippi State 37, Kentucky 28
N.C. State (2-0) at Marshall (2-0), 7 p.m. CBSSN
N.C. State 31, Marshall 23
Florida (2-1) at Tennessee (2-1), 7 p.m. ESPN
Tennessee 23, Florida 21
National game of the week
No. 7 Stanford (3-0) at No. 20 Oregon (3-0), 8 p.m. ABC
Stanford 27, Oregon 20
No. 18 Wisconsin (2-1) at Iowa (3-0), 8:35 p.m. Fox
This is a sneaky good matchup. Kinnick Stadium at night is a tough place to play. The Hawkeyes nearly beat Penn State there last season. Wisconsin had College Football Playoff hopes, but those have been significantly dampened with a home loss to BYU last week.
Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17
Arizona State (2-1) at No. 10 Washington (2-1), 10:30 p.m. ESPN
Washington 24, Arizona State 13
Louisville (2-1) at Virginia (2-1), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers and Cardinals open up their ACC slates with the annual cross-division "rivalry." Louisville has had the edge in football except for 2014, when UVa upset No. 23 Louisville, 23-21, at home, and UVa has had a significant edge in men's basketball. I put "rivalry" in quotes not because of the lack of competitive games in the two major sports, but because I don't consider Louisville a rival of UVa's. I don't really like the school, which has given itself a bad reputation with scandals through
This is a big opportunity for UVa. The 'Hoos are actually favored over the Cardinals for the first time since they joined the ACC. The line started out with Virginia as about a field goal favorite, and now the line on ESPN.com is up to 5.5. It is a winnable home game, and if the team can get to 3-1, all of a sudden you are seeing possibilities open up in the schedule where another six-win campaign is looking possible. Lose and fall to 2-2, and it gets much harder to get a bowl berth with tough contests against N.C. State and Miami in the next two weeks, and 4-5 wins again becomes the realistic target.
Louisville has struggled to its 2-1 mark. In the opener, it lost to Alabama, 51-14. No shame there. The Crimson Tide is absolutely mauling everything in its path right now, and had UVa faced it, I maybe would've considered a 51-14 a good loss. "Fourteen points on 'Bama?? We'll take it!" But the Cardinals have been unimpressive the past two weeks. Against FCS foe Indiana State, Louisville won, 31-7, but it was just 14-7 after three quarters. And last week, Louisville was down 14-0 at home
 |
| A hypothetical 14 points scored against 'Bama? We'd take it! |
The offense has really sputtered with Lamar Jackson now backing up the Ravens' Joe Flacco. The aptly named new QB, Juwon Pass, has really struggled, and he's been pulled from games the previous two weeks in favor of redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham, who has run and passed better, sparking the Cardinals. He's been named the starter this week. Cunningham, fairly light at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, has completed 16 of 25 passes (64 percent) for 163 yards, one touchdown, and zero picks. He's rushed for 183 yards, which easily leads the team, has averaged 5.5 ypc, and has one TD. Dae Williams, 6-2 and 232 pounds, is big and has two rushing TDs but only 65 yards on 3.4 ypc. As expected going into the season, Jaylen Smith has led the Louisville receiving corps but hasn't gotten many opportunities. He has six catches and a TD, and Seth Dawkins has six receptions as well.
Louisville lost a lot from its 2017 defense and has been up and down thus far. When the weather has been nice, UVa's offense has been explosive, as demonstrated against Richmond and Ohio. Those defenses are probably not the caliber of the one the Cardinals possess, but the Cavaliers are capable of putting up impressive numbers. I wouldn't expect Indiana's defense to be as good as Louisville's, but the Hoosiers made UVa look ordinary. But that was in the downpour. The forecast in Charlottesville earlier in the week was for rain, but now it looks clear. So that should help the 'Hoos.
On paper, it is easy to see why UVa is favored. As expected, Louisville lost to Alabama, but its performance did nothing to raise its profile, and since then, it has mostly struggled against teams it probably would've blown out the past two seasons. Meanwhile, UVa has looked really good on offense in two games and really good on defense in two games. And the one loss came in really bad weather.
But as a UVa fan, you know this situation makes me nervous. The Wahoos a home ACC favorite? When's the last time that happened? Was UVa favored vs. Boston College last season when the Cavaliers entered at 5-1? The Eagles won, 41-10. Whether Virginia was favored or not, it got ugly. Louisville has really struggled, but Cunningham has ignited the offense, and that worries me. Coach Bobby Petrino deciding to put him in from the start might be just what the Cardinals need. I think UVa has shown it can score enough to win some games, and being at home with nice weather helps on that side of the ball, but Louisville might have found just enough on offense to squeak this one out. I picked against UVa last week, and we saw how that turned out. Good for me as a fan and good for the team. Bad for my picks record. But I'm not predicting for money. Why mess with a good thing? Like last week, this is a game where a typical UVa team might lose. So I'm hoping for this edition of the Wahoos to prove me wrong again.
Louisville 27, Virginia 24
Comments
Post a Comment