Last week was another good week for me as I went 6-2 and now sit at 50-26 on the season. I missed on Syracuse-Pittsburgh as 'Cuse football did a very 'Cuse football thing and decided to lose to a lesser team a week after taking Clemson to the brink in Death Valley. I also missed on Florida-LSU, as the Gators and their new coach, Dan Mullen, proved me wrong for the third week in a row. Maybe it is time to start picking Florida. I did, however, nail Texas' upset of Oklahoma. And so on we go to this week's sneaky-good slate.
Duke (4-1) at Georgia Tech (3-3), 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Georgia Tech 31, Duke 28
Louisville (2-4) at Boston College (4-2), 12:30 p.m. NBCSW
Boston College 35, Louisville 24
Pittsburgh (3-3) at No. 5 Notre Dame (6-0), 2:30 p.m. NBC
Notre Dame 42, Pittsburgh 17
No. 2 Georgia (6-0) at No. 13 LSU (5-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 27, LSU 17
No. 7 Washington (5-1) at No. 17 Oregon (4-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Oregon let a big opportunity go in blowing a lead at home against then-No. 7 Stanford on Sept. 23. I'll pick the Ducks to not let that happen again.
Oregon 31, Washington 27
No. 22 Texas A&M (4-2) at South Carolina (3-2), 3:30 p.m. SEC Network
Texas A&M 28, South Carolina 24
Virginia Tech (3-2) at North Carolina (1-3), 7 p.m. ESPNU
The line for this game on ESPN.com is Hokies -5.5, and that seems really low to me. Tech hung with a legitimate top 10, maybe top five, team in Notre Dame last week for one half, and it normally bounces back from losses, as it did against Duke after getting upset by ODU. North Carolina has one close win over a mediocre Pittsburgh team and losses to East Carolina (not good), Cal (so-so), and Miami (by 37). And Tech has beaten UNC the past two seasons 59-7 and 34-3.
Virginia Tech 41, North Carolina 21
National game of the week
No. 15 Wisconsin (4-1) at No. 12 Michigan (5-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Michigan lost at the beginning of the season at Notre Dame but has won five straight. Pressure is mounting on Jim Harbaugh to get the Wolverines to the playoffs, and this week, they begin a key stretch with the Badgers, then at Michigan State, then vs. Penn State. But Michigan must win out to get to the playoffs, and a road game at Ohio State looms at the end of the season. Wisconsin suffered one of the season's more surprising losses at home to BYU, but bounced back the next week in a tough environment at Iowa. These teams have one common opponent so far -- winless Nebraska -- and Wisconsin won 41-24 while Michigan cruised 56-10, both in home games.
Michigan 30, Wisconsin 25
No. 16 Miami (5-1) at Virginia (3-2), 7 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers return to action this week coming off their road loss at N.C. State and a bye week facing a strong but vulnerable Hurricanes team.
Miami opened the season with a disappointing loss to LSU, in which it was down 33-3 before late touchdowns made the final score a more palatable 33-17. Since then, though, the Hurricanes have stormed through the rest of their schedule with five straight wins, albeit not exactly over a who's who of college football: vs. Savannah State, 70-0; at Toledo, 49-24; vs. Florida International, 31-17; vs. North Carolina, 47-10; and vs. Florida State, 28-27. Virginia is probably Miami's second-toughest opponent so far.
Like last season, Miami has a tough defense. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 2 in the country in total defense (237.2 yards per game), No. 3 in pass 'D' (137.3), and No. 7 in rushing defense (100.0). Plus, they are No. 1 in tackles for losses per game with 12 and an opponent third-down conversion percentage of 19.8. Linebacker Shaquille Quarterman (6.5 tackles for losses, three sacks), defensive ends Jonathan Garvin (11.5 tackles for losses, 3.5 sacks) and Joe Jackson (7.5 tackles for losses, five sacks), and defensive tackle Gerald Willis III (12.5 tackles for losses, two sacks) are all going to be
problems for Virginia, especially in getting a run game going. After a strong start, UVa running back Jordan Ellis averaged just 3.4 and 2.3 yards per carry against Louisville and N.C. State, respectively. It is a good thing Bryce Perkins can make plays with his legs, because he will have to for UVa to have a chance at the upset. Miami has brought back the Turnover Chain this season, and it seems to be working again. It ranks sixth in the nation in forcing turnovers (14, eight picks, six fumbles). Safety Sheldrick Redwine and cornerback Jhavonte Dean have two interceptions each. As always, limiting turnovers will be a major key to trying to win this contest. With probably limited time for Perkins to throw, I'm sure UVa will try to rely on misdirection, options, and quick passes to get some momentum going and keep Miami's linemen and linebackers at bay.
Miami quarterback N'Kosi Perry, a redshirt freshman, entered the FIU game, taking over for last season's starter, Malik Rosier, and hasn't given up the reins to the offense since. Perry has completed 56.6 percent of his passes for 646 yards, 11 TDs, and three picks. Rosier was at 52.1 percent for 611 yards, five scores, and two interceptions. Perry possesses some scrambling ability as well. Virginia is going to need to find a way to get pressure on the young signal-caller and rattle him, but that proved tough against N.C. State, as Ryan Finley sat in the pocket and easily found receivers. He is a much better passer than Perry, though, so maybe UVa can just get close to Perry and disrupt his timing. Jeff Thomas is Miami's leading receiving weapon, averaging a crazy 24.8 yards per catch on 16 receptions with three TDs. Four Hurricanes have at least 12 catches. The run game is strong, too, with Travis Homer at 434 yards (5.2 ypc) and a score and DeeJay Dallas at 369 yards (6.4) and two TDs.
Virginia got out to a 28-14 lead last season at Miami when the Hurricanes were No. 2 and undefeated. You could argue that was both the peak of the Wahoos' season and when they completely ran out of gas, because Miami won, 44-28, and Virginia did not score an offensive TD the rest of the season after the third quarter of that game. Hopefully, Virginia remembers it can score and compete with this team and forgets about how that 2017 contest finished.
Miami fell behind what has been a mostly mediocre-to-average FSU team last week 27-7 and won, so the 'Canes already have some comeback experience this season. Virginia, coming off a bye and hopefully feeling somewhat rested, could possibly face a relieved Miami team feeling good about itself at 5-1. A 5-1 squad that hasn't faced many great teams yet. Virginia isn't great, but it could be good, and I think the Cavaliers have a chance to spring the upset on what will be a chilly night at Scott Stadium. But I still like the Hurricanes to pull this one out in a pretty close game.
Miami 27, Virginia 24
Duke (4-1) at Georgia Tech (3-3), 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Georgia Tech 31, Duke 28
Louisville (2-4) at Boston College (4-2), 12:30 p.m. NBCSW
Boston College 35, Louisville 24
Pittsburgh (3-3) at No. 5 Notre Dame (6-0), 2:30 p.m. NBC
Notre Dame 42, Pittsburgh 17
No. 2 Georgia (6-0) at No. 13 LSU (5-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 27, LSU 17
No. 7 Washington (5-1) at No. 17 Oregon (4-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Oregon let a big opportunity go in blowing a lead at home against then-No. 7 Stanford on Sept. 23. I'll pick the Ducks to not let that happen again.
Oregon 31, Washington 27
No. 22 Texas A&M (4-2) at South Carolina (3-2), 3:30 p.m. SEC Network
Texas A&M 28, South Carolina 24
Virginia Tech (3-2) at North Carolina (1-3), 7 p.m. ESPNU
The line for this game on ESPN.com is Hokies -5.5, and that seems really low to me. Tech hung with a legitimate top 10, maybe top five, team in Notre Dame last week for one half, and it normally bounces back from losses, as it did against Duke after getting upset by ODU. North Carolina has one close win over a mediocre Pittsburgh team and losses to East Carolina (not good), Cal (so-so), and Miami (by 37). And Tech has beaten UNC the past two seasons 59-7 and 34-3.
Virginia Tech 41, North Carolina 21
National game of the week
No. 15 Wisconsin (4-1) at No. 12 Michigan (5-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Michigan lost at the beginning of the season at Notre Dame but has won five straight. Pressure is mounting on Jim Harbaugh to get the Wolverines to the playoffs, and this week, they begin a key stretch with the Badgers, then at Michigan State, then vs. Penn State. But Michigan must win out to get to the playoffs, and a road game at Ohio State looms at the end of the season. Wisconsin suffered one of the season's more surprising losses at home to BYU, but bounced back the next week in a tough environment at Iowa. These teams have one common opponent so far -- winless Nebraska -- and Wisconsin won 41-24 while Michigan cruised 56-10, both in home games.
Michigan 30, Wisconsin 25
No. 16 Miami (5-1) at Virginia (3-2), 7 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers return to action this week coming off their road loss at N.C. State and a bye week facing a strong but vulnerable Hurricanes team.
Miami opened the season with a disappointing loss to LSU, in which it was down 33-3 before late touchdowns made the final score a more palatable 33-17. Since then, though, the Hurricanes have stormed through the rest of their schedule with five straight wins, albeit not exactly over a who's who of college football: vs. Savannah State, 70-0; at Toledo, 49-24; vs. Florida International, 31-17; vs. North Carolina, 47-10; and vs. Florida State, 28-27. Virginia is probably Miami's second-toughest opponent so far.
Like last season, Miami has a tough defense. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 2 in the country in total defense (237.2 yards per game), No. 3 in pass 'D' (137.3), and No. 7 in rushing defense (100.0). Plus, they are No. 1 in tackles for losses per game with 12 and an opponent third-down conversion percentage of 19.8. Linebacker Shaquille Quarterman (6.5 tackles for losses, three sacks), defensive ends Jonathan Garvin (11.5 tackles for losses, 3.5 sacks) and Joe Jackson (7.5 tackles for losses, five sacks), and defensive tackle Gerald Willis III (12.5 tackles for losses, two sacks) are all going to be
Miami quarterback N'Kosi Perry, a redshirt freshman, entered the FIU game, taking over for last season's starter, Malik Rosier, and hasn't given up the reins to the offense since. Perry has completed 56.6 percent of his passes for 646 yards, 11 TDs, and three picks. Rosier was at 52.1 percent for 611 yards, five scores, and two interceptions. Perry possesses some scrambling ability as well. Virginia is going to need to find a way to get pressure on the young signal-caller and rattle him, but that proved tough against N.C. State, as Ryan Finley sat in the pocket and easily found receivers. He is a much better passer than Perry, though, so maybe UVa can just get close to Perry and disrupt his timing. Jeff Thomas is Miami's leading receiving weapon, averaging a crazy 24.8 yards per catch on 16 receptions with three TDs. Four Hurricanes have at least 12 catches. The run game is strong, too, with Travis Homer at 434 yards (5.2 ypc) and a score and DeeJay Dallas at 369 yards (6.4) and two TDs.
Virginia got out to a 28-14 lead last season at Miami when the Hurricanes were No. 2 and undefeated. You could argue that was both the peak of the Wahoos' season and when they completely ran out of gas, because Miami won, 44-28, and Virginia did not score an offensive TD the rest of the season after the third quarter of that game. Hopefully, Virginia remembers it can score and compete with this team and forgets about how that 2017 contest finished.
Miami fell behind what has been a mostly mediocre-to-average FSU team last week 27-7 and won, so the 'Canes already have some comeback experience this season. Virginia, coming off a bye and hopefully feeling somewhat rested, could possibly face a relieved Miami team feeling good about itself at 5-1. A 5-1 squad that hasn't faced many great teams yet. Virginia isn't great, but it could be good, and I think the Cavaliers have a chance to spring the upset on what will be a chilly night at Scott Stadium. But I still like the Hurricanes to pull this one out in a pretty close game.
Miami 27, Virginia 24
They had a chance to spring the upset, and they did! Nice win for the Cavs. Bronco has them in the Coastal hunt!
ReplyDelete