Week 9 college picks - Part II

Thursday-Friday: 1-3
Season: 64-34

No. 2 Clemson (7-0) at Florida State (4-3), Noon ABC
Clemson 38, Florida State 21

Wake Forest (3-4) at Louisville (2-5), Noon ACC Network
Wake Forest 27, Louisville 24

World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
No. 9 Florida (6-1) vs. No. 7 Georgia (6-1) in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 28, Florida 24

No. 18 Iowa (6-1) at No. 17 Penn State (5-2), 3:30 p.m. ESPN
Penn State 26, Iowa 23

No. 21 South Florida (7-0) at Houston (6-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Houston 42, South Florida 35

Duke (5-2) at Pittsburgh (3-4) 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
Pittsburgh 29, Duke 27

No. 14 Washington State (6-1) at No. 24 Stanford (5-2), 7 p.m. Pac-12 Network
Washington State 31, Stanford 27

No. 22 N.C. State (5-1) at Syracuse (5-2), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Syracuse 34, N.C. State 31

South's Oldest Rivalry
North Carolina (1-5) at Virginia (5-2), 12:20 p.m. NBC29/The CW
The Tar Heels travel to Charlottesville to renew the rivalry looking for a win -- any win -- and the Cavaliers are trying to keep their momentum going and attain bowl eligibility for a second consecutive season.

Virginia had lost seven straight to UNC before holding on for a 20-14 victory last year at Chapel Hill. This UNC team seems to have it together a little bit more than at this point last season. Going into that matchup in 2017, UNC was 1-5 as well, but had not been as competitive, with its only win coming over a bad Old Dominion team. This Tar Heels squad got its victory over Pittsburgh, and lost the past two weeks by a combined six points to Syracuse (40-37) and Virginia Tech (22-19), recording more than 500 yards in each defeat. The Heels had the Hokies beat, but they fumbled on the goal line and then gave up a 98-yard game-winning TD drive.

So UNC is tough and right there in ACC games, with the exception of a 47-10 loss to Miami, and UVa of course just beat Miami two weeks ago. At quarterback, Nathan Elliott has completed 61.2 percent of his throws for 1,241 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. All of his picks came in a loss to Cal in the season opener by seven points. That should tell you that with a cleaner game from him, that's likely a UNC win. Elliott has only been sacked four times, so the line has done a great job
protecting him. North Carolina has a pair of good running backs in Antonio Williams (65 carries, 424 yards, 6.5 ypc, and four TDs) and Michael Carter (41 rushes, 292 yards, 7.1 ypc, no scores). Jordon Brown has 43 carries for 159 yards (3.7 ypc) and two TDs. UNC also sports two receivers with 25 catches: Anthony Ratliff-Williams, who has a 14.2 yards-per-reception average and two scores, and Dazz Newsome, who has a 10.8 yards-per-catch average and one TD.

UNC is led on defense by linebacker Cole Holcomb with 46 tackles, 5.5 for losses. Defensive end Malik Carney has recorded 7.5 tackles for losses and 5.5 sacks. Cornerback Patrice Rene has a pair of picks. As a whole, UNC's defense has been getting run over, ranking 98th in rushing yards allowed, 89th in yards allowed, 110th in points allowed per game, and 59th in passing yards allowed. If I'm Virginia, I'm using Jordan Ellis -- if available -- a lot, and if he's not, then I'm running PK Kier a lot. No matter what, I think running the ball and keeping it away from UNC's offense is a good idea. Ellis had 36 carries against the Tar Heels last year. Virginia has done a solid job on time of possession this season, so let's see if Robert Anae keeps it somewhat simple when calling plays.

This is a classic Virginia letdown scenario, and I'm worried about this UNC offense, which has put up a lot of yards despite lacking somewhat in points (about 23 per game). But Virginia has shown the ability to focus on each week as it comes, and it did a nice job of that last week at Duke after taking down Miami at home in a prime-time contest.

Something that's become sort of a running joke among me and some of my readers (that means two or three) this year is my penchant for picking against UVa. It's sort of become a thing, a superstition maybe. But though I have reservations about this game, I'm now giving Virginia a dreaded vote of confidence. Let's hope the Wahoos overcome my jinx and continue their roll. It's going to be a close game I think, though, as UNC looks much better than 1-5 after some studying.
Virginia 28, North Carolina 27

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