Last week: 10-3; 1-3 on Thursday-Friday, 9-0 on Saturday
Nailed: Iowa-Penn State (guess was 26-23 PSU, final was 30-24); Washington State-Stanford (guess was WSU 31-27, final was 41-38)
Whiffed: Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech (guess was VT 27-23, final was GT 49-28)
Season: 73-34
There are lots of important games this week, so let's dive right in. The College Football Playoff rankings were released for the first time this season Tuesday, and those are the rankings used beside the teams.
Saturday
Louisville (2-6) at No. 2 Clemson (8-0), Noon ABC
This is not one of the important games. The Tigers should roll, and I'm not exactly feeling bad for a coach with the character of Bobby Petrino. Clemson has shown no mercy on its past three opponents, crushing Wake Forest, N.C. State, and Florida State by an average score of 54.3-6.7. The Tigers' close call with Syracuse seems to have woken them up.
Clemson 52, Louisville 10
No. 19 Syracuse (6-2) at Wake Forest (4-4), Noon ACC Network
Syracuse 42, Wake Forest 34
Georgia Tech (4-4) at North Carolina (1-6), 12:15 p.m. ACC Network
Georgia Tech 40, North Carolina 31
No. 6 Georgia (7-1) at No. 9 Kentucky (7-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS
This is the biggest Kentucky home football game in I have no idea how long. This is the defacto SEC East championship game. The winner likely gets -- GULP -- Alabama in Atlanta in a month. The Wildcats have been great this season under sixth-year coach Mark Stoops. They went 7-6 in two straight seasons before this one. Their only loss this year came at Texas A&M, 20-14. The Bulldogs are trying to get back into the playoff for a second straight season. Their only loss came at LSU, 36-16. Georgia did not face A&M, and Kentucky did not face LSU. Kentucky beat Florida, 27-16, South Carolina, 24-10, Vanderbilt, 14-7, and Missouri, 15-14. Georgia defeated Florida, 36-17, South Carolina, 41-17, Vanderbilt, 41-13, and Missouri, 43-29. The line is Bulldogs -9, which seems high, but I do think they are better, even at Kentucky. It should be a low-scoring game. Both defenses are very good, and Kentucky has struggled to score points in the SEC despite its record.
Georgia 23, Kentucky 18
No. 13 West Virginia (6-1) at No. 17 Texas (6-2), 3:30 p.m. Fox
The winner is in the driver's seat to get to the Big 12 championship, likely against Oklahoma (remember last season the conference started taking the top two teams at the end of the regular season and pitting them in a title game). The Longhorns have beaten Oklahoma already and have an easier schedule coming up. The Mountaineers still have to face the Sooners at the end of the season.
Texas 38, West Virginia 35
Florida State (4-4) at No. 21 N.C. State (5-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
N.C. State 27, Florida State 20
No. 14 Penn State (6-2) at No. 5 Michigan (7-1), 3:45 p.m. ESPN
Even with a loss, the Wolverines would still be tied with Ohio State for the Big Ten East lead with one defeat. So win or lose, Michigan is probably headed toward a showdown with the Buckeyes for the division title in Columbus later this month. A loss to PSU, though, would most likely knock the Wolverines out of playoff contention. The Nittany Lions would need help to claim the division even with a victory since they have two conference losses. Michigan is looking for revenge after a 42-13 loss in Happy Valley last season. The Wolverines will get it in Ann Arbor.
Michigan 31, Penn State 24
No. 22 Boston College (6-2) at Virginia Tech (4-3), 3:45 p.m. ACC Network
The Eagles, who have one ACC loss, will get a shot vs. Clemson at home next week. Until then, they need to keep winning to keep their slim Atlantic Division title hopes alive. The Hokies are really struggling after getting blown out last week at home vs. Georgia Tech. If it weren't for a late goal-line fumble and 98-yard drive against UNC, they'd have three straight losses, and their bowl streak would be in real jeopardy. As it is, getting run over for 465 rushing yards by the Yellow Jackets isn't a good look with physical BC coming to town. Bruising back AJ Dillon is second in the conference with 801 yards.
Boston College 31, Virginia Tech 28
Duke (5-3) at Miami (5-3), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Miami 34, Duke 25
Game of the week
No. 1 Alabama (8-0) at No. 3 LSU (7-1), 8 p.m. CBS
The Crimson Tide has had an easy path so far, but it is dominating its competition. 'Bama's closest win came against Texas A&M, 45-23. It's gotten to face Arkansas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, all of whom are in the bottom of the SEC. The Tigers have had to deal with Mississippi State, Georgia, and Florida in three consecutive weeks. They handed Georgia its first loss, and by a healthy 36-16 margin. Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest places for a road team to win, and Alabama has been unchallenged thus far. It could get very interesting, but I like the Tide. Alabama wins the SEC East with a victory, while LSU will take first place for the time being in an upset, but would need to keep winning.
Alabama 29, LSU 22
Tonight
Pittsburgh (4-4) at No. 25 Virginia (6-2), 7:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers look to keep their edge in the ACC Coastal race under the lights at Scott Stadium against a temperamental Panthers team.
If Virginia can win, it will have a chance in the back half of November to secure the division title against the Techs, since it faces Liberty next week in a game that won't affect the ACC standings. A loss would shoot the Panthers into front for the time being. They still have tough Coastal games to come vs. Virginia Tech and at Miami.
The Panthers have been up and down this season, but have done it against a challenging schedule (Albany, W, 33-7; Penn State, L, 51-6; Georgia Tech, W, 24-19; UNC, L, 38-35; UCF, L, 45-14; Syracuse, W, 44-37; Notre Dame, L, 19-14; Duke, W, 54-45). Virginia beat the Tar Heels, but certainly, the Cavaliers probably would have lost to Penn State, Notre Dame, and UCF. And Syracuse would've been a tough game. That's to say, I'm not sure if UVa would be a lot better than 4-4 right now against Pitt's schedule. This team is better than its overall record, and that is borne out in its tied-for-first-place position in the Coastal.
What drives Pittsburgh when it is successful is its run game, anchored by an offensive line that features four senior starters. The Panthers rank 22nd in the nation in rushing yards per contest and piled up 484 -- second in program history -- and four TDs against Duke. Senior Qadree Ollison leads
them with 795 yards and seven TDs, and he averages 6.3 ypc. Another senior, Darrin Hall, is second with 429 yards and four TDs with a 6.1 ypc average. And against Duke, freshman V'Lique Carter broke out for 137 yards and two scores on just seven carries. He had not played all season, and apparently the plan was to use him deep in the ACC schedule as a sort of secret weapon. The new redshirt rule implemented this year mandates that players can now play up to four games and still get redshirted, so it is up to coaches how and when they want to play certain promising players. This week, though, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi has cast Carter's status in doubt because of an injury, though some people are speculating that this is a bit of gamesmanship from Narduzzi, who in fact will deploy Carter in the plan again. So we are in wait-and-see mode on Carter, but Bronco Mendenhall said this week the defensive staff is preparing as if he will suit up.
In the two most recent meetings against Pitt with Mendenhall at the helm, the Panthers rushed for 209 yards and two TDs in 2016 in a 45-31 win and then 176 yards and two scores in a 31-14 victory last season. But Virginia has been better recently against good rushing attacks, holding UNC to 66 rushing yards, Duke to 58, and Miami to 149 (keep in mind Miami got 70 of those yards on one play, the one that ended in the crucial Bryce Hall pursuit-and-catch of Travis Homer, so other than that one play, the rush 'D' performed pretty well). Virginia's rushing defense ranks 20th in the country and will need to be on point tonight. Linebacker Jordan Mack, who got hurt against Louisville and hadn't really played since then, though I saw where he was in for one play last week, is expected to play, so that should help shore up the defense. Malcolm Cook didn't play last week either, and he's expected to be back. Zane Zandier and Rob Snyder have been revelations in their absences. Virginia has a very solid group of linebackers.
Kenny Pickett is Pitt's QB, but he hasn't done a lot with his arm this season. The sophomore has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,156 yards, eight TDs, and five INTs. He's averaging 144.5 yards per game. He can run some as well, compiling 152 yards and a trio of scores on the ground. Pickett's favorite target in the passing game is junior Maurice Ffrench (yes, Ffrench with two "f"s), who has 19 catches for 294 yards and four TDs. Sophomore Taysir Mack has tallied 12 catches and an impressive 22 yards-per-catch average but missed two games and then didn't see any action against Duke. He's listed as questionable this week on his ESPN.com profile. And senior Rafael Araujo-Lopes has 20 catches for 216 yards and two TDs.
If Pitt always seems dangerous in the return game to you, you're right. The Panthers had a kick return for a TD in 2016 at UVa and then a punt return for a score last year at home vs. UVa, both by Quadree Henderson, who is now in the NFL. But the Panthers have made a habit of being exceptional in the return game. In a cool stat I picked up from TheSabre.com, Pittsburgh has 24 return TDs since 2000, 13 on kicks and 11 on punts. The rate has increased under Narduzzi, with 12 of them coming since he took over for the 2015 season. Since 2015, those 12 return scores rank second nationally to San Diego State's 13. This year, it is Ffrench who has two kick return TDs and leads the ACC with a 29.6 yards-per-return average, while Lopes has one on a punt return. Virginia has done a great job in 2018 on return defense, especially on punts, where it ranks seventh nationally, and will have to keep it up tonight and not give the Panthers an easy touchdown.
The main reason for Pittsburgh's inconsistency has been its defense, which has given up 32.6 ppg (97th), 38.3 in losses. The strong effort in the loss to Notre Dame must not have carried over to the shootout against Duke, even though the team did win. Virginia had strong offensive outings against Duke and North Carolina and has a good chance to keep that going against Pitt. The Panthers rank 101st in total defense, 95th against the run, 93rd vs. the pass, and 117th on third-down conversions.
Despite the defensive woes of the past couple seasons -- confusing since Narduzzi was a great defensive coordinator at Michigan State -- Pittsburgh always seems to represent a physical challenge for Virginia, one it hasn't handled well. Since it joined the ACC in 2013, Pitt has won four of the team's five matchups. UVa needs to be ready tonight, but the national spotlight and night game at home should have the 'Hoos prepared if they weren't already. But based on this season, they were probably already eager and focused, as they've shown the ability to put each game in the past and get on to the next one. The short week should benefit the Wahoos, since they were able to stay at home. The rainy weather expected for the game probably favors Pitt a bit, which has the better overall run game, though Jordan Ellis and Bryce Perkins certainly have done their part to give Virginia a nice one-two punch on the ground. I like Virginia, but Pittsburgh likely makes it very competitive.
Virginia 30, Pittsburgh 26
Nailed: Iowa-Penn State (guess was 26-23 PSU, final was 30-24); Washington State-Stanford (guess was WSU 31-27, final was 41-38)
Whiffed: Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech (guess was VT 27-23, final was GT 49-28)
Season: 73-34
There are lots of important games this week, so let's dive right in. The College Football Playoff rankings were released for the first time this season Tuesday, and those are the rankings used beside the teams.
Saturday
Louisville (2-6) at No. 2 Clemson (8-0), Noon ABC
This is not one of the important games. The Tigers should roll, and I'm not exactly feeling bad for a coach with the character of Bobby Petrino. Clemson has shown no mercy on its past three opponents, crushing Wake Forest, N.C. State, and Florida State by an average score of 54.3-6.7. The Tigers' close call with Syracuse seems to have woken them up.
Clemson 52, Louisville 10
No. 19 Syracuse (6-2) at Wake Forest (4-4), Noon ACC Network
Syracuse 42, Wake Forest 34
Georgia Tech (4-4) at North Carolina (1-6), 12:15 p.m. ACC Network
Georgia Tech 40, North Carolina 31
No. 6 Georgia (7-1) at No. 9 Kentucky (7-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS
This is the biggest Kentucky home football game in I have no idea how long. This is the defacto SEC East championship game. The winner likely gets -- GULP -- Alabama in Atlanta in a month. The Wildcats have been great this season under sixth-year coach Mark Stoops. They went 7-6 in two straight seasons before this one. Their only loss this year came at Texas A&M, 20-14. The Bulldogs are trying to get back into the playoff for a second straight season. Their only loss came at LSU, 36-16. Georgia did not face A&M, and Kentucky did not face LSU. Kentucky beat Florida, 27-16, South Carolina, 24-10, Vanderbilt, 14-7, and Missouri, 15-14. Georgia defeated Florida, 36-17, South Carolina, 41-17, Vanderbilt, 41-13, and Missouri, 43-29. The line is Bulldogs -9, which seems high, but I do think they are better, even at Kentucky. It should be a low-scoring game. Both defenses are very good, and Kentucky has struggled to score points in the SEC despite its record.
Georgia 23, Kentucky 18
No. 13 West Virginia (6-1) at No. 17 Texas (6-2), 3:30 p.m. Fox
The winner is in the driver's seat to get to the Big 12 championship, likely against Oklahoma (remember last season the conference started taking the top two teams at the end of the regular season and pitting them in a title game). The Longhorns have beaten Oklahoma already and have an easier schedule coming up. The Mountaineers still have to face the Sooners at the end of the season.
Texas 38, West Virginia 35
Florida State (4-4) at No. 21 N.C. State (5-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
N.C. State 27, Florida State 20
No. 14 Penn State (6-2) at No. 5 Michigan (7-1), 3:45 p.m. ESPN
Even with a loss, the Wolverines would still be tied with Ohio State for the Big Ten East lead with one defeat. So win or lose, Michigan is probably headed toward a showdown with the Buckeyes for the division title in Columbus later this month. A loss to PSU, though, would most likely knock the Wolverines out of playoff contention. The Nittany Lions would need help to claim the division even with a victory since they have two conference losses. Michigan is looking for revenge after a 42-13 loss in Happy Valley last season. The Wolverines will get it in Ann Arbor.
Michigan 31, Penn State 24
No. 22 Boston College (6-2) at Virginia Tech (4-3), 3:45 p.m. ACC Network
The Eagles, who have one ACC loss, will get a shot vs. Clemson at home next week. Until then, they need to keep winning to keep their slim Atlantic Division title hopes alive. The Hokies are really struggling after getting blown out last week at home vs. Georgia Tech. If it weren't for a late goal-line fumble and 98-yard drive against UNC, they'd have three straight losses, and their bowl streak would be in real jeopardy. As it is, getting run over for 465 rushing yards by the Yellow Jackets isn't a good look with physical BC coming to town. Bruising back AJ Dillon is second in the conference with 801 yards.
Boston College 31, Virginia Tech 28
Duke (5-3) at Miami (5-3), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Miami 34, Duke 25
Game of the week
No. 1 Alabama (8-0) at No. 3 LSU (7-1), 8 p.m. CBS
The Crimson Tide has had an easy path so far, but it is dominating its competition. 'Bama's closest win came against Texas A&M, 45-23. It's gotten to face Arkansas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, all of whom are in the bottom of the SEC. The Tigers have had to deal with Mississippi State, Georgia, and Florida in three consecutive weeks. They handed Georgia its first loss, and by a healthy 36-16 margin. Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest places for a road team to win, and Alabama has been unchallenged thus far. It could get very interesting, but I like the Tide. Alabama wins the SEC East with a victory, while LSU will take first place for the time being in an upset, but would need to keep winning.
Alabama 29, LSU 22
Tonight
Pittsburgh (4-4) at No. 25 Virginia (6-2), 7:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers look to keep their edge in the ACC Coastal race under the lights at Scott Stadium against a temperamental Panthers team.
If Virginia can win, it will have a chance in the back half of November to secure the division title against the Techs, since it faces Liberty next week in a game that won't affect the ACC standings. A loss would shoot the Panthers into front for the time being. They still have tough Coastal games to come vs. Virginia Tech and at Miami.
The Panthers have been up and down this season, but have done it against a challenging schedule (Albany, W, 33-7; Penn State, L, 51-6; Georgia Tech, W, 24-19; UNC, L, 38-35; UCF, L, 45-14; Syracuse, W, 44-37; Notre Dame, L, 19-14; Duke, W, 54-45). Virginia beat the Tar Heels, but certainly, the Cavaliers probably would have lost to Penn State, Notre Dame, and UCF. And Syracuse would've been a tough game. That's to say, I'm not sure if UVa would be a lot better than 4-4 right now against Pitt's schedule. This team is better than its overall record, and that is borne out in its tied-for-first-place position in the Coastal.
What drives Pittsburgh when it is successful is its run game, anchored by an offensive line that features four senior starters. The Panthers rank 22nd in the nation in rushing yards per contest and piled up 484 -- second in program history -- and four TDs against Duke. Senior Qadree Ollison leads
In the two most recent meetings against Pitt with Mendenhall at the helm, the Panthers rushed for 209 yards and two TDs in 2016 in a 45-31 win and then 176 yards and two scores in a 31-14 victory last season. But Virginia has been better recently against good rushing attacks, holding UNC to 66 rushing yards, Duke to 58, and Miami to 149 (keep in mind Miami got 70 of those yards on one play, the one that ended in the crucial Bryce Hall pursuit-and-catch of Travis Homer, so other than that one play, the rush 'D' performed pretty well). Virginia's rushing defense ranks 20th in the country and will need to be on point tonight. Linebacker Jordan Mack, who got hurt against Louisville and hadn't really played since then, though I saw where he was in for one play last week, is expected to play, so that should help shore up the defense. Malcolm Cook didn't play last week either, and he's expected to be back. Zane Zandier and Rob Snyder have been revelations in their absences. Virginia has a very solid group of linebackers.
Kenny Pickett is Pitt's QB, but he hasn't done a lot with his arm this season. The sophomore has completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,156 yards, eight TDs, and five INTs. He's averaging 144.5 yards per game. He can run some as well, compiling 152 yards and a trio of scores on the ground. Pickett's favorite target in the passing game is junior Maurice Ffrench (yes, Ffrench with two "f"s), who has 19 catches for 294 yards and four TDs. Sophomore Taysir Mack has tallied 12 catches and an impressive 22 yards-per-catch average but missed two games and then didn't see any action against Duke. He's listed as questionable this week on his ESPN.com profile. And senior Rafael Araujo-Lopes has 20 catches for 216 yards and two TDs.
If Pitt always seems dangerous in the return game to you, you're right. The Panthers had a kick return for a TD in 2016 at UVa and then a punt return for a score last year at home vs. UVa, both by Quadree Henderson, who is now in the NFL. But the Panthers have made a habit of being exceptional in the return game. In a cool stat I picked up from TheSabre.com, Pittsburgh has 24 return TDs since 2000, 13 on kicks and 11 on punts. The rate has increased under Narduzzi, with 12 of them coming since he took over for the 2015 season. Since 2015, those 12 return scores rank second nationally to San Diego State's 13. This year, it is Ffrench who has two kick return TDs and leads the ACC with a 29.6 yards-per-return average, while Lopes has one on a punt return. Virginia has done a great job in 2018 on return defense, especially on punts, where it ranks seventh nationally, and will have to keep it up tonight and not give the Panthers an easy touchdown.
The main reason for Pittsburgh's inconsistency has been its defense, which has given up 32.6 ppg (97th), 38.3 in losses. The strong effort in the loss to Notre Dame must not have carried over to the shootout against Duke, even though the team did win. Virginia had strong offensive outings against Duke and North Carolina and has a good chance to keep that going against Pitt. The Panthers rank 101st in total defense, 95th against the run, 93rd vs. the pass, and 117th on third-down conversions.
Despite the defensive woes of the past couple seasons -- confusing since Narduzzi was a great defensive coordinator at Michigan State -- Pittsburgh always seems to represent a physical challenge for Virginia, one it hasn't handled well. Since it joined the ACC in 2013, Pitt has won four of the team's five matchups. UVa needs to be ready tonight, but the national spotlight and night game at home should have the 'Hoos prepared if they weren't already. But based on this season, they were probably already eager and focused, as they've shown the ability to put each game in the past and get on to the next one. The short week should benefit the Wahoos, since they were able to stay at home. The rainy weather expected for the game probably favors Pitt a bit, which has the better overall run game, though Jordan Ellis and Bryce Perkins certainly have done their part to give Virginia a nice one-two punch on the ground. I like Virginia, but Pittsburgh likely makes it very competitive.
Virginia 30, Pittsburgh 26
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