No. 2 Duke (20-2, 8-1) at No. 3 Virginia (20-1, 8-1), 6 p.m. ESPN
The stage is set. Again.
"College GameDay" will be in Charlottesville on Saturday, as another epic matchup is expected between the teams leading the ACC. The winner of the Blue Devils-Cavaliers rematch will likely be tied with North Carolina in first place in the conference, assuming the Tar Heels take care of Miami.
Three weeks ago, the ESPN pregame show was set up at Cameron Indoor Stadium in anticipation of the first meeting, and the top-five squads did not disappoint. The contest went down to the wire with Duke pulling out a 72-70 win. Neither team held more than a seven-point lead in the first half, and then in the second half, it was nip and tuck until Duke extended its lead to 67-60 with 1:09 left. But Virginia got to within three twice in the final minute before Duke finally closed the door.
De'Andre Hunter led the Wahoos with 18 points, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome finished with 14 each, and Braxton Key had 11 off the bench. Mamadi Diakite had just two points on 1-of-5 shooting, one rebound, and one block in 17 minutes. He committed four fouls. The good news is he has played much better since that game, averaging 10 points, 6.3 rebounds, and three blocks. UVa really needs
the dynamic Diakite to show up to give it the best chance to win. Jack Salt had five points and four rebounds, going 2 for 2 on field goals and 1 of 2 from the line. Kihei Clark had just two points but only shot the ball twice. Jay Huff scored four points and had two blocks (at least one rejection of a Zion Williamson shot that I can remember) and a rebound in seven minutes. He probably deserved more playing time in the second half.
For Duke, it was the Williamson and RJ Barrett show, with Barrett scoring 30 points and Zion 27. Cam Reddish finished with nine points, Jack White scored four, and Marques Bolden had two. Williamson collected nine rebounds, but Duke only outrebounded Virginia, 32-30. He got plenty of whistles driving the lane, something Hunter pointed out after the game, but it ended up being a pretty good strategy (as long as it wasn't an and-one), because he made only 7 of his 14 attempts at the line. Both teams shot poorly at the line and from beyond the 3-point arc, with Virginia falling more below its averages than Duke. If they shoot more like normal, the 'Hoos have a great chance Saturday.
Keep in mind, Duke point guard Tre Jones did not play in the first meeting after separating his shoulder a few days before the contest. He starts the offense and defense for Duke, and analysts assumed his absence gave Virginia a better chance to win in Durham. But others speculated that the Blue Devils' adjustments threw the Cavaliers for a loop. So we will have to see how he changes the matchup in Charlottesville.
Neither team has lost since the first meeting, though both have struggled at times. Duke's final results have looked pretty good, but it found itself down by two at the half at home to Georgia Tech and Boston College. Virginia cruised over Wake Forest and Notre Dame but looked sloppy at N.C. State
while pulling out an overtime victory, and then against Miami, with Jerome out and nursing a back injury, the team looked lethargic and ready for a week off but still won by double digits, 56-46. Hunter had 14 points, Diakite 11, and Guy 10. Clark started in Jerome's place and had nine points and six assists, but also six turnovers as UVa was again uncharacteristically sloppy, with 14 total.
No one seems to know the status of Jerome. After the Miami game, Bennett said he seemed to be going in the right direction. So hopefully that is good news. There was a rumor started this week by a rogue Hokies fan that Jerome was going to need surgery. But that doesn't seem to be true. Jerome is tough, and I'm sure he really wants to play Saturday. And Virginia fans really want him to play, and of course really want UVa to beat Duke. But, if playing could aggravate his back more, sit him, please. Yes, it would significantly hurt the Cavaliers' chances of winning, but the next month and hopefully into April are much more important in the grand scheme of things. If getting swept by Duke in the regular season keeps Jerome healthier down the stretch, you absolutely sit him.
Duke was not shooting well going into the first game, and its percentages have actually gotten worse since then. The Blue Devils' overall field goal percentage is down just a tick, from 48.8 percent to 48.6. The drop in free throw percentage is small, too, from 67.7 to 67.6. But the two players who take the most free throws -- their numbers are down: Barrett from 68.5 to 68.2, and Williamson from 70.8 to 65.7. The team's 3-point percentage is down a whole point, from 31.8 to 30.8. Alex O'Connell (38.1 to 36.7), Reddish (35.8 to 34), Barrett (31.7 to 31.4), and Jack White (32.8 to 29.7) are all shooting worse from beyond the arc than three weeks ago. Williamson is actually up from 27.3 to 28.6.
It is tough to imagine Duke shooting worse from the line (18 of 31) and from beyond the arc (2 of 14) this time, but Tony Bennett wasn't happy with the defense last game because of the penetration Virginia allowed into the lane. On average, UVa opponents make 9.5 free throws per game, though, so Duke would've been just a touch over 60 points had it made the normal amount of free throws foes
make against UVa. So Virginia has to either hope Duke is way off again at the line, or that it shoots fewer free throws. Some of those 31 attempts came late, with UVa fouling intentionally, so I'd be very surprised to see Duke even reach 30 free throws, and hopefully not even get to the upper 20s. As for 3s, on average in 14 attempts, Duke should've made 4-5 last game, so that is potentially 6-9 more points. Duke might make more than two 3s at JPJ, but I still don't expect the Blue Devils to go off.
It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Bennett makes in guarding Williamson. I believe in the first game, Diakite, Huff, and possibly Key and Huff all had their shots. As Hunter said, it is tough to not get whistled against him in the lane. He is so big and strong, plus he can control his body when getting fouled, and he's going to get some help because of the name on the front of his jersey. He's also a good passer, so the double team isn't as effective as it could be, and he can dribble and drive the floor somewhat as we saw on his and-one when Huff fouled him across the arm. It's a tough matchup for any player, perhaps the toughest in college basketball.
It will also be tough for Virginia to shoot worse on 3s and free throws. Just a few days before facing Duke and going 3 of 17 from beyond the arc, Virginia made 13 of 24 against Virginia Tech. That's unexpected, too, but one would think the 'Hoos could fall somewhere in between those marks, making at least six or seven. Since the Duke game, Virginia went 7 of 21 vs. Wake Forest, 8 of 18 at Notre Dame, 4 of 10 at N.C. State, and 6 of 17 against Miami. At the line in Durham, Virginia was 11 of 17. A normal mark for them with that number of shots would've been 13 of 17.
We can talk about how each team will shoot and what kind of adjustments each will make for a while, and better basketball minds than mine can discuss it for even longer. But for me, it'll boil down to Jerome. If he can play, I like UVa's chances to bounce back and win the rematch, but wouldn't be surprised at a loss, either, given how Virginia has looked its past two games. Plus, even if he plays, he might not be 100 percent. If he can't go, I could see Duke winning by 10 and possibly more. So I'm actually going to make two predictions, perhaps a first for my blog. As for odds-makers, as of late Friday night, Virginia was listed as a 2.5-point favorite on ESPN.com.
Gut feeling (with Jerome): Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Gut feeling (without Jerome): Duke wins by 10-15 points.
The stage is set. Again.
"College GameDay" will be in Charlottesville on Saturday, as another epic matchup is expected between the teams leading the ACC. The winner of the Blue Devils-Cavaliers rematch will likely be tied with North Carolina in first place in the conference, assuming the Tar Heels take care of Miami.
Three weeks ago, the ESPN pregame show was set up at Cameron Indoor Stadium in anticipation of the first meeting, and the top-five squads did not disappoint. The contest went down to the wire with Duke pulling out a 72-70 win. Neither team held more than a seven-point lead in the first half, and then in the second half, it was nip and tuck until Duke extended its lead to 67-60 with 1:09 left. But Virginia got to within three twice in the final minute before Duke finally closed the door.
De'Andre Hunter led the Wahoos with 18 points, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome finished with 14 each, and Braxton Key had 11 off the bench. Mamadi Diakite had just two points on 1-of-5 shooting, one rebound, and one block in 17 minutes. He committed four fouls. The good news is he has played much better since that game, averaging 10 points, 6.3 rebounds, and three blocks. UVa really needs
 |
| Mamadi Diakite did have once nice block against Zion Williamson in UVa's first meeting with Duke, but he was unable to stay out of foul trouble and went just 1 of 5 on the offensive end. |
For Duke, it was the Williamson and RJ Barrett show, with Barrett scoring 30 points and Zion 27. Cam Reddish finished with nine points, Jack White scored four, and Marques Bolden had two. Williamson collected nine rebounds, but Duke only outrebounded Virginia, 32-30. He got plenty of whistles driving the lane, something Hunter pointed out after the game, but it ended up being a pretty good strategy (as long as it wasn't an and-one), because he made only 7 of his 14 attempts at the line. Both teams shot poorly at the line and from beyond the 3-point arc, with Virginia falling more below its averages than Duke. If they shoot more like normal, the 'Hoos have a great chance Saturday.
Keep in mind, Duke point guard Tre Jones did not play in the first meeting after separating his shoulder a few days before the contest. He starts the offense and defense for Duke, and analysts assumed his absence gave Virginia a better chance to win in Durham. But others speculated that the Blue Devils' adjustments threw the Cavaliers for a loop. So we will have to see how he changes the matchup in Charlottesville.
Neither team has lost since the first meeting, though both have struggled at times. Duke's final results have looked pretty good, but it found itself down by two at the half at home to Georgia Tech and Boston College. Virginia cruised over Wake Forest and Notre Dame but looked sloppy at N.C. State
 |
| Tony Bennett and his staff have probably been hard at work thinking about how the Cavaliers can do a better job of slowing down Zion Williamson in the rematch. |
No one seems to know the status of Jerome. After the Miami game, Bennett said he seemed to be going in the right direction. So hopefully that is good news. There was a rumor started this week by a rogue Hokies fan that Jerome was going to need surgery. But that doesn't seem to be true. Jerome is tough, and I'm sure he really wants to play Saturday. And Virginia fans really want him to play, and of course really want UVa to beat Duke. But, if playing could aggravate his back more, sit him, please. Yes, it would significantly hurt the Cavaliers' chances of winning, but the next month and hopefully into April are much more important in the grand scheme of things. If getting swept by Duke in the regular season keeps Jerome healthier down the stretch, you absolutely sit him.
Duke was not shooting well going into the first game, and its percentages have actually gotten worse since then. The Blue Devils' overall field goal percentage is down just a tick, from 48.8 percent to 48.6. The drop in free throw percentage is small, too, from 67.7 to 67.6. But the two players who take the most free throws -- their numbers are down: Barrett from 68.5 to 68.2, and Williamson from 70.8 to 65.7. The team's 3-point percentage is down a whole point, from 31.8 to 30.8. Alex O'Connell (38.1 to 36.7), Reddish (35.8 to 34), Barrett (31.7 to 31.4), and Jack White (32.8 to 29.7) are all shooting worse from beyond the arc than three weeks ago. Williamson is actually up from 27.3 to 28.6.
It is tough to imagine Duke shooting worse from the line (18 of 31) and from beyond the arc (2 of 14) this time, but Tony Bennett wasn't happy with the defense last game because of the penetration Virginia allowed into the lane. On average, UVa opponents make 9.5 free throws per game, though, so Duke would've been just a touch over 60 points had it made the normal amount of free throws foes
 |
| The big question on all Hoos' minds: What is the condition of Ty Jerome's back? |
It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Bennett makes in guarding Williamson. I believe in the first game, Diakite, Huff, and possibly Key and Huff all had their shots. As Hunter said, it is tough to not get whistled against him in the lane. He is so big and strong, plus he can control his body when getting fouled, and he's going to get some help because of the name on the front of his jersey. He's also a good passer, so the double team isn't as effective as it could be, and he can dribble and drive the floor somewhat as we saw on his and-one when Huff fouled him across the arm. It's a tough matchup for any player, perhaps the toughest in college basketball.
It will also be tough for Virginia to shoot worse on 3s and free throws. Just a few days before facing Duke and going 3 of 17 from beyond the arc, Virginia made 13 of 24 against Virginia Tech. That's unexpected, too, but one would think the 'Hoos could fall somewhere in between those marks, making at least six or seven. Since the Duke game, Virginia went 7 of 21 vs. Wake Forest, 8 of 18 at Notre Dame, 4 of 10 at N.C. State, and 6 of 17 against Miami. At the line in Durham, Virginia was 11 of 17. A normal mark for them with that number of shots would've been 13 of 17.
We can talk about how each team will shoot and what kind of adjustments each will make for a while, and better basketball minds than mine can discuss it for even longer. But for me, it'll boil down to Jerome. If he can play, I like UVa's chances to bounce back and win the rematch, but wouldn't be surprised at a loss, either, given how Virginia has looked its past two games. Plus, even if he plays, he might not be 100 percent. If he can't go, I could see Duke winning by 10 and possibly more. So I'm actually going to make two predictions, perhaps a first for my blog. As for odds-makers, as of late Friday night, Virginia was listed as a 2.5-point favorite on ESPN.com.
Gut feeling (with Jerome): Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Gut feeling (without Jerome): Duke wins by 10-15 points.
Comments
Post a Comment