Week 3 college picks

Last week: 11-4 Season: 18-7

No huge games this weekend, but perhaps the quirkiest game of the season takes place, UNC at Wake, and it is NOT an ACC contest.

Friday
North Carolina (2-0) at Wake Forest (2-0), 6 p.m. ESPN
Repeat with me: This is not a conference game. This is not a conference game. Both of these teams are in the ACC, but this counts as a nonconference matchup because of an agreement between the two schools. The Demon Deacons won a close game at home over Utah State then blew out Rice on the road. UNC edged South Carolina on a neutral field then nipped Miami at home to get out to a surprising 2-0 start. Can the Tar Heels do the same in their first road game?
Wake Forest 31, North Carolina 28

Kansas (1-1) at Boston College (2-0), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Everyone knows former LSU coach Les Miles has his work cut out for him at college football backwater Kansas. In Week 1, the Jayhawks escaped against Indiana State with a win, but in Week 2, they fell to Coastal Carolina, 12-7.
Boston College 38, Kansas 14

Saturday
Pittsburgh (1-1) at No. 13 Penn State (2-0), Noon ABC
The Panthers got by Ohio, 20-10, last week after their Week 1 loss to Virginia. The Nittany Lions have two easy wins over Idaho and Buffalo and have cruised by Pitt the past two seasons.
Penn State 38, Pittsburgh 17

Furman (1-1) at Virginia Tech (1-1), Noon ACC Network
The Hokies got a little scare from Old Dominion last week, with ODU getting within 24-17 in the second half. But Tech won, 31-17. Furman is a quality FCS school with a good offense that has scored more than 40 points in each of its first two games, last week losing 48-42 to Georgia State, which upset Tennessee in Week 1. The Paladins have a shot at making this interesting if Tech continues to struggle.
Virginia Tech 38, Furman 17

N.C. State (2-0) at West Virginia (1-1), Noon FS1
This would've been a much better game a season ago, when it was scheduled to be played in Raleigh. WVU, led by QB Will Grier, finished 8-4, and N.C. State, led by QB Ryan Finley, went 9-4. But Hurricane Florence had other ideas, and it was canceled. The Wolfpack probably won't win nine games this season, and the Mountaineers appear to be really bad in their first year under coach Neal Brown, with a win by seven over JMU and a 38-7 loss to Missouri.
N.C. State 31, West Virginia 16

The Citadel (0-2) at Georgia Tech (1-1), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Georgia Tech 24, The Citadel 13

Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy
No. 19 Iowa (2-0) at Iowa State (1-0), 4 p.m. FS1
The Hawkeyes have a pair of easy victories over Miami-Ohio and Rutgers. The Cyclones struggled in Week 1 but defeated Northern Iowa in overtime, falling out of the top 25 in the process. With a week off to gather their thoughts, regroup and get ready for this rivalry game, the 'Clones should feel more prepared. They've lost the past four games in the series. "College GameDay" is in Ames for the first time so the crowd will be rocking, but I'm picking Iowa in a close one.
Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

Louisville (1-1) vs. Western Kentucky (1-1) in Nashville, 4 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Louisville 27, Western Kentucky 17

Bethune-Cookman (1-1) at Miami (0-2), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Miami 45, Bethune-Cookman 10

Duke (1-1) at Middle Tennessee (1-1), 7 p.m. Facebook Live
Duke 30, Middle Tennessee 20

No. 1 Clemson (2-0) at Syracuse (1-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
The Tigers crushed Georgia Tech then won by two touchdowns over Texas A&M in a semi-challenging game. The Orange shut out Liberty then ... lost to Maryland 63-20? Yeah, that actually happened. "College GameDay" originating from Upstate New York was all but a foregone conclusion this week until the Terrapins whooped the Orange. Syracuse went 4-8 two years ago when it shocked Clemson in the Carrier Dome, 27-24. After that victory, Syracuse didn't win another game. Then last year, Syracuse controlled a lot of the action in Death Valley, but Clemson escaped 27-23. I'll be pretty surprised if Clemson isn't ready for this one, and given what happened to Syracuse last week, I'm not sure how close the matchup will be this time, especially if the Tigers are locked in.
Clemson 45, Syracuse 21

Florida State (1-1) at No. 25 Virginia (2-0), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Thursday, I watched highlights of UVa's home upsets of No. 2 Florida State in 1995 (33-28) and No. 4 Florida State in 2005 (26-21). Virginia also won at No. 23 Florida State in 2011 (14-13), but I haven't gotten to that one yet, and it isn't necessarily included among the top wins in program history, though it was still a heckuva victory. The first win is usually considered UVa's best, with it being a Thursday night prime time game on ESPN with FSU coming in with a 29-0 ACC record. The second win was most notable for QB Marques Hagans' standout performance (27 of 36 for 306 yards, two TDs), leading former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden to quip after the game, "We just couldn't stop that daggum No. 18." Both highlight packages were fun to watch, but 2019 FSU isn't your daddy's edition of the Seminoles.

Straight up, Virginia should win this game. Vegas believes as much, installing UVa as a slightly-over-a-touchdown favorite, and plenty of analysts have been taking the Cavaliers. FSU is in the second year of a rebuild under coach Willie Taggart and has a record of 13-14 since the beginning of the 2017 season, which was the last year now-Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher led the program. A new offensive coordinator, Kendal Briles, a proponent of the spread style of attack, is guiding that unit in
2019, and results have been mixed. The Seminoles opened the season with a 36-31 home loss to Boise State in a game that started out in a way that suggested FSU had figured out its offensive woes. The 'Noles led 31-19 at halftime. You'll notice that's the same number of points they scored in the game, and that's a problem. FSU QB James Blackman passed for 327 yards and three touchdowns, but the offense rushed for just 99 yards, and Blackman was sacked four times. Last week at home, FSU needed OT to beat Louisiana-Monroe, 45-44. The 'Noles got their run game going with 219 yards -- with Cam Akers going for 193 and a pair of scores on 36 carries -- but Blackman wasn't quite as good, tossing two picks to go along with three more scores. He was sacked twice. FSU's offense scored at least 10 points in each quarter except the third, when it was shut out.

Florida State did have three turnovers against UL-Monroe compared to the Warhawks' one, so that certainly affected the outcome, and FSU was up 24-7 at the half. Against Boise, though, the Broncos actually had more turnovers, three, than FSU's two.

While the offensive problems look to be at least partially solved, the defense has been the Seminoles' bigger issue. The Broncos put up an incredible 621 yards in their win, and the Warhawks went for 419 in their loss. The Seminoles said they were simplifying their defense after the setback vs. Boise State, and this week, there have been more changes to the depth chart on that side of the ball. UVa has posted at least 27 points in six straight games dating to last season, and, given the combination of putting up 30 and 52 in the first two outings of the season and FSU's defense performing as it has, it would be pretty disappointing if Virginia can't score at least 30 points. Eating up time and keeping FSU off the field will be big, too. Boise was able to hold the ball for 40 minutes. UL-Monroe and FSU each had possession for about 30 minutes. I think offensive coordinator Robert Anae should trust Bryce Perkins' arm in the short and medium passing games, and also, trust the running backs to pick up around four yards per carry. Don't get all pass happy, and don't run Perkins just to do it. Use him a weapon.

I'm pretty confident that -- barring injuries or nasty weather -- UVa can score at least in the high 20-point range if not more than 30. I think the game will come down to how Virginia's defense performs. The Cavaliers are supposed to have a top-20 defense this season, and for the most part, they've shown it. Pitt scored 14 points in the second quarter but could do little else. William & Mary had a few chunk plays, but didn't score a touchdown until the fourth quarter and got a field goal after recovering a punt return fumble deep in UVa territory, so the starters essentially pitched a shutout (the other score was a pick-6). FSU's offensive attack is fast, but Blackman has been prone to some turnovers. Can UVa bother him with pressure? The defense has recorded 11 sacks in two games, and FSU's line has been shaky. Can cornerback Bryce Hall and the secondary slow down the passing game and dangerous receiver Tamorrion Terry (10 catches, 156 yards, one TD)? I think the 30-point mark is important. If UVa could hold FSU below that, that would be huge given what I believe about the Wahoos' offense. I think Virginia's defense has a good chance to do that, but it could be tough. Let's remember the 'Noles did score 31 in one half against Boise State. And then ... nothing. So this offense can get on a roll quickly, and it could just as easily get bogged down. I'll be very curious to see how Virginia tries to disrupt FSU's offensive flow.

OK, time for a prediction. This is a big moment for UVa. The students are pumped, and the community is pumped. About 55-60,000 fans are expected to attend, which would be Scott Stadium's biggest crowd in a long while. The national champion men's basketball team will also be honored at the game, getting the juices flowing even more. It's a night game, just as the other wins over FSU were. Even if the Cavaliers lose, they have the ability to bounce back, but it would be a disappointment. But I think they'll seize the moment and show they are better than the Seminoles, who I believe are improving.
Virginia 34, Florida State 27

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