Last week: 10-3 Season: 37-13
There are some intriguing games this week, but nothing that really, really jumps out nationally or in the ACC. But Duke-Virginia Tech and N.C. State-Florida State will help the set the pecking order of the Coastal and Atlantic divisions, respectively. And then of course, there's some game happening in South Bend ...
Friday's game
Duke (2-1) at Virginia Tech (2-1), 7 p.m. ESPN
The Hokies are three-point favorites at home but have slept walk through two games at Lane Stadium so far: a 31-17 win over Old Dominion and a 24-17 victory over Furman. Duke has recovered from getting beat down by Alabama with easy wins over North Carolina A&T (45-13) and Middle Tennessee (41-18). Paired with Tech's loss to Boston College, a team that lost at home to Kansas by double digits, I'm going to go with the Blue Devils in a close one.
Duke 27, Virginia Tech 24
Saturday's games
Holy Cross (1-2) at Syracuse (2-2), Noon, ACC Network
Syracuse 56, Holy Cross 14
Delaware (3-1) at Pittsburgh (2-2), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Pittsburgh 45, Delaware 13
No. 21 USC (3-1) at No. 17 Washington (3-1), 3:30 p.m. Fox
The Huskies have three easy wins and a one-point home loss to surprising Cal. The Trojans have been more impressive, though, with a 25-point win over Stanford and a victory by a touchdown over Utah, which was ranked No. 10. They do have a common opponent in BYU. USC lost to the Cougars, 30-27, and Washington defeated the Cougars, 45-19. I think USC's little run comes to a close, and Washington won't lose a second game at home so quickly. But the 10.5-point spread is too big.
Washington 31, USC 24
Georgia Tech (1-2) at Temple (2-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS Sports Network
The Yellow Jackets are off to a rough start in coach Geoff Collins' first season, having lost to The Citadel at home in overtime, 27-24. Now, they face Collins' old team in the Owls, who own wins over Bucknell and a ranked Maryland team, but also a loss to Buffalo.
Temple 30, Georgia Tech 20
Wake Forest (4-0) at Boston College (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
Besides Virginia, the Demon Deacons are the ACC's other nice surprise. But two of the wins were close, over Utah State (38-35) and North Carolina (24-18 with UNC trying to drive for the winning score). But BC has that loss to Kansas I can't get over, and though the Eagles did defeat Virginia Tech, it was only by seven points after BC won the turnover battle 5-1. These teams have alternated wins and losses the past four years with the Eagles winning the 2018 matchup at home, 41-34.
Wake Forest 35, Boston College 24
No. 1 Clemson (4-0) at North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
All of the Tar Heels' games have been decided by six points or fewer -- close wins over South Carolina and Miami and close defeats to Wake Forest and Appalachian State -- surely not good for old man Mack Brown's blood pressure. UNC has been better than expected, but I think the Tigers will let Brown have a relaxing second half in a blowout.
Clemson 38, North Carolina 13
Mississippi State (3-1) at No. 7 Auburn (4-0), 7 p.m. ESPN
These Tigers picked up a very nice road win over Texas A&M last week, 28-20. The Bulldogs have yet to go on the road, with their loss coming to Kansas State, 31-24. MSU won this meeting last year in Starkville, 23-9. The Tigers won at home two seasons ago, 49-10. I like Auburn to hold serve at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Auburn 30, Mississippi State 26
No. 24 Kansas State (3-0) at Oklahoma State (3-1), 7 p.m. ESPN+
The Wildcats are undefeated with their nice road win over Mississippi State and victories over Nicholls State and Bowling Green. They have yet to give up more than 24 points. The Cowboys started with three easy wins over Oregon State, McNeese State, and Tulsa before giving Texas all it wanted in Austin in a 36-30 loss. Oklahoma State is a four-point favorite, and I like it to hand KSU its first loss as well.
Oklahoma State 31, Kansas State 27
N.C. State (3-1) at Florida State (2-2), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Seminoles' defense finally bowed up in the fourth quarter a bit last week, getting a key interception after blowing a 21-7 halftime lead at home against Louisville. The Cardinals grabbed a 24-21 lead in the fourth before the pick, and then FSU scored twice to win, 35-24. FSU hasn't had many issues scoring, netting at least 31 points in every game except the loss in Charlottesville. The Wolfpack is off to a decent start a year after losing QB Ryan Finley and a host of other offensive starters, with easy victories over Western Carolina, East Carolina, and Ball State. State suffered a road loss to West Virginia, which was off to a terrible start but is actually now 3-1 (albeit a shaky win over JMU and then a five-point win over Kansas). I'll take the Seminoles at home, but I don't trust the defense to win by the line of seven points.
Florida State 34, N.C. State 31
No. 5 Ohio State (4-0) at Nebraska (3-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
"College GameDay" is in Lincoln, where the Cornhuskers are making improvements in their second year under coach and alumnus Scott Frost, the former UCF coach, after going 4-8 in 2018. Some people thought "GameDay" should've been hosted in South Bend for the matchup below this one, but the Irish were featured last week at Georgia, and I think a lot of times, non-ESPN/ABC games face a difficult road in landing the show unless it is THE game of the week. And while Virginia at Notre Dame could certainly be a good game, it isn't a top-5 or even top-10 contest. Nebraska has wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, and a 34-31 loss to rival Colorado. OSU is destroying everything in its path, defeating Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Miami-Ohio by an average score of 53.5-9. The Buckeyes shouldn't have many issues with the Cornhuskers, and the Cavaliers-Fighting Irish final score could very well end up tighter than this result.
Ohio State 38, Nebraska 21
No. 18 Virginia (4-0) at No. 10 Notre Dame (2-1), 3:30 p.m. NBC
There won't be any overlooking the opponent this weekend for the Wahoos.
Virginia travels to Notre Dame for the first time in a nationally televised game in one of only two contests all weekend that matches two ranked teams. UVa is 0-2 against the Fighting Irish. In 2015, No. 9 Notre Dame came to Scott Stadium and needed a final-minute TD pass to escape with a 34-27 win. The only other meeting came in the Meadowlands in 1989, with No. 2 Notre Dame beating what ended up being a very good UVa team 36-13 to open the season. No ACC team has ever beaten a ranked Notre Dame team in South Bend. 0-20. And Virginia has zero road wins over top-10 teams. 0-27. So the 'Hoos have a chance to make some history.
It could be Notre Dame overlooking UVa. The Irish just played a very solid game but came up short with No. 3 Georgia winning 23-17 last week in Athens. The difference is UVa's trap game against Old Dominion was sandwiched by two big games: this one and the home tilt vs. FSU. Notre Dame gets ... Bowling Green next week. So rather than looking ahead, UVa fans just have to hope the Irish
are feeling tired and uninspired after their physical loss to the Bulldogs.
In Week 1, Notre Dame defeated what was thought to be a not-very-good Louisville team, 35-17. It took a while for the Irish to take control, though, with the score just 21-14 at halftime. After a week off, Notre Dame returned home and crushed New Mexico, 66-14, before the Georgia loss.
Notre Dame QB Ian Book has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 828 yards, eight touchdowns and two picks, both of which he threw vs. Georgia. He's been sacked four times, but interestingly enough, none of those came against Georgia. Louisville sacked him three times. Can UVa get some pressure on Book? Amazingly, UVa is tied for first with Florida and Ohio State with 20 sacks. Book's gotten pretty good protection, so I think that will be a big key. If Notre Dame hurts UVa, it is likely to be through the air, so any pressure the Cavaliers can get on him is a huge plus. He's a good runner, though, and is second on the team with 145 rushing yards and a pair of scores.
Tony Jones Jr. is the Irish's top running back, with 148 yards (4.9 ypc) and a touchdown. He had 115 yards vs. Louisville but then just 17 against New Mexico and 21 vs. Georgia. Notre Dame's rushing offense ranks just 85th. At receiver, Chase Claypool is a big, 6-foot-4, 229-pound target who leads the team with 15 catches for 256 yards and two TDs. Tight end Cole Kmet is a load as well (6-5, 250) and has nine receptions for 108 yards and a score. Notre Dame's passing offense ranks 25th.
Virginia's rush defense is 12th, so it should be able to keep the Irish's attack in check. It did a good job of limiting Florida State star Cam Akers. UVa's pass defense, which ranks 34th, will be tested, though. Pressure, pressure, pressure on Book. And since he's good at escaping it, contain him whenever possible. UVa has had trouble with that at times. The Wahoos could easily be first in sacks by themselves with the number of sacks that seemed to have gone through their fingertips.
Meanwhile, the Irish's pass defense ranks 16th, and its rush defense is 110th. And UVa likes to move the ball in the air and is the best at that, so these differences will be interesting to watch play out on the field. UVa likes to use the short- and medium-passing games, but Notre Dame will probably do a pretty good job of slowing it down. Can the Cavs figure out ways to move the ball on the ground? One positive is Notre Dame is at the opposite end of the spectrum on sacks recorded: just four through three games, which, averaged out, ranks tied for 107th. So Perkins will hopefully have some time, which he's seemingly had little of at times.
Bronco Mendenhall faced Notre Dame three times while the coach at BYU with varying degrees of success -- but all losses. In 2005, Mendenhall's first season, the Cougars, which finished 6-6, lost at No. 9 Notre Dame, 49-23. In 2012, BYU, which went 8-5, took No. 5 Notre Dame to the brink in South Bend, losing 17-14. That was one of several close calls for the Irish that year, which went 12-0 then got walloped by Alabama in the BCS national championship. And finally, in 2013, BYU, which went 8-5 that year as well, lost at Notre Dame, 23-13. So Mendenhall's best BYU teams (five seasons of at least 10 wins) never got a chance to face a good Notre Dame team, and he still got close one year to knocking the Irish off.
The last time UVa faced a top-10 team on the road came in 2014 at Florida State, with the Cavaliers losing 34-20. Those Wahoos were talented and should've gone bowling, but were undisciplined and finished 5-7. Still, I would hope this team can fare better than that one. So I think a reasonable goal is for these Wahoos to lose by no more than 13 points.
OK, prediction time. I think Virginia's mindset is going to be great. The guys took a little vacation for a quarter or two last week. It happens to the best teams. What's important is they recovered. Defensive end Eli Hanback was quoted as saying this week, "We aren't up there to sightsee," so on the surface, they are definitely treating this trip the right way, and don't sound as if they'll be taken in by the mystique of playing in South Bend. I'm pretty sure the focus will be there this week, and it will be easier for the Cavaliers to have their heads in the game than the Fighting Irish, because of what they went through last weekend on the road. It wouldn't surprise me to see UVa take a lead early. Eventually, though, I do think Notre Dame will battle back and be a little too much for the Cavaliers, who put up a good fight but come up short.
Notre Dame 31, Virginia 20
There are some intriguing games this week, but nothing that really, really jumps out nationally or in the ACC. But Duke-Virginia Tech and N.C. State-Florida State will help the set the pecking order of the Coastal and Atlantic divisions, respectively. And then of course, there's some game happening in South Bend ...
Friday's game
Duke (2-1) at Virginia Tech (2-1), 7 p.m. ESPN
The Hokies are three-point favorites at home but have slept walk through two games at Lane Stadium so far: a 31-17 win over Old Dominion and a 24-17 victory over Furman. Duke has recovered from getting beat down by Alabama with easy wins over North Carolina A&T (45-13) and Middle Tennessee (41-18). Paired with Tech's loss to Boston College, a team that lost at home to Kansas by double digits, I'm going to go with the Blue Devils in a close one.
Duke 27, Virginia Tech 24
Saturday's games
Holy Cross (1-2) at Syracuse (2-2), Noon, ACC Network
Syracuse 56, Holy Cross 14
Delaware (3-1) at Pittsburgh (2-2), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Pittsburgh 45, Delaware 13
No. 21 USC (3-1) at No. 17 Washington (3-1), 3:30 p.m. Fox
The Huskies have three easy wins and a one-point home loss to surprising Cal. The Trojans have been more impressive, though, with a 25-point win over Stanford and a victory by a touchdown over Utah, which was ranked No. 10. They do have a common opponent in BYU. USC lost to the Cougars, 30-27, and Washington defeated the Cougars, 45-19. I think USC's little run comes to a close, and Washington won't lose a second game at home so quickly. But the 10.5-point spread is too big.
Washington 31, USC 24
Georgia Tech (1-2) at Temple (2-1), 3:30 p.m. CBS Sports Network
The Yellow Jackets are off to a rough start in coach Geoff Collins' first season, having lost to The Citadel at home in overtime, 27-24. Now, they face Collins' old team in the Owls, who own wins over Bucknell and a ranked Maryland team, but also a loss to Buffalo.
Temple 30, Georgia Tech 20
Wake Forest (4-0) at Boston College (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
Besides Virginia, the Demon Deacons are the ACC's other nice surprise. But two of the wins were close, over Utah State (38-35) and North Carolina (24-18 with UNC trying to drive for the winning score). But BC has that loss to Kansas I can't get over, and though the Eagles did defeat Virginia Tech, it was only by seven points after BC won the turnover battle 5-1. These teams have alternated wins and losses the past four years with the Eagles winning the 2018 matchup at home, 41-34.
Wake Forest 35, Boston College 24
No. 1 Clemson (4-0) at North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
All of the Tar Heels' games have been decided by six points or fewer -- close wins over South Carolina and Miami and close defeats to Wake Forest and Appalachian State -- surely not good for old man Mack Brown's blood pressure. UNC has been better than expected, but I think the Tigers will let Brown have a relaxing second half in a blowout.
Clemson 38, North Carolina 13
Mississippi State (3-1) at No. 7 Auburn (4-0), 7 p.m. ESPN
These Tigers picked up a very nice road win over Texas A&M last week, 28-20. The Bulldogs have yet to go on the road, with their loss coming to Kansas State, 31-24. MSU won this meeting last year in Starkville, 23-9. The Tigers won at home two seasons ago, 49-10. I like Auburn to hold serve at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Auburn 30, Mississippi State 26
No. 24 Kansas State (3-0) at Oklahoma State (3-1), 7 p.m. ESPN+
The Wildcats are undefeated with their nice road win over Mississippi State and victories over Nicholls State and Bowling Green. They have yet to give up more than 24 points. The Cowboys started with three easy wins over Oregon State, McNeese State, and Tulsa before giving Texas all it wanted in Austin in a 36-30 loss. Oklahoma State is a four-point favorite, and I like it to hand KSU its first loss as well.
Oklahoma State 31, Kansas State 27
N.C. State (3-1) at Florida State (2-2), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Seminoles' defense finally bowed up in the fourth quarter a bit last week, getting a key interception after blowing a 21-7 halftime lead at home against Louisville. The Cardinals grabbed a 24-21 lead in the fourth before the pick, and then FSU scored twice to win, 35-24. FSU hasn't had many issues scoring, netting at least 31 points in every game except the loss in Charlottesville. The Wolfpack is off to a decent start a year after losing QB Ryan Finley and a host of other offensive starters, with easy victories over Western Carolina, East Carolina, and Ball State. State suffered a road loss to West Virginia, which was off to a terrible start but is actually now 3-1 (albeit a shaky win over JMU and then a five-point win over Kansas). I'll take the Seminoles at home, but I don't trust the defense to win by the line of seven points.
Florida State 34, N.C. State 31
No. 5 Ohio State (4-0) at Nebraska (3-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
"College GameDay" is in Lincoln, where the Cornhuskers are making improvements in their second year under coach and alumnus Scott Frost, the former UCF coach, after going 4-8 in 2018. Some people thought "GameDay" should've been hosted in South Bend for the matchup below this one, but the Irish were featured last week at Georgia, and I think a lot of times, non-ESPN/ABC games face a difficult road in landing the show unless it is THE game of the week. And while Virginia at Notre Dame could certainly be a good game, it isn't a top-5 or even top-10 contest. Nebraska has wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, and a 34-31 loss to rival Colorado. OSU is destroying everything in its path, defeating Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Miami-Ohio by an average score of 53.5-9. The Buckeyes shouldn't have many issues with the Cornhuskers, and the Cavaliers-Fighting Irish final score could very well end up tighter than this result.
Ohio State 38, Nebraska 21
No. 18 Virginia (4-0) at No. 10 Notre Dame (2-1), 3:30 p.m. NBC
There won't be any overlooking the opponent this weekend for the Wahoos.
Virginia travels to Notre Dame for the first time in a nationally televised game in one of only two contests all weekend that matches two ranked teams. UVa is 0-2 against the Fighting Irish. In 2015, No. 9 Notre Dame came to Scott Stadium and needed a final-minute TD pass to escape with a 34-27 win. The only other meeting came in the Meadowlands in 1989, with No. 2 Notre Dame beating what ended up being a very good UVa team 36-13 to open the season. No ACC team has ever beaten a ranked Notre Dame team in South Bend. 0-20. And Virginia has zero road wins over top-10 teams. 0-27. So the 'Hoos have a chance to make some history.
It could be Notre Dame overlooking UVa. The Irish just played a very solid game but came up short with No. 3 Georgia winning 23-17 last week in Athens. The difference is UVa's trap game against Old Dominion was sandwiched by two big games: this one and the home tilt vs. FSU. Notre Dame gets ... Bowling Green next week. So rather than looking ahead, UVa fans just have to hope the Irish
In Week 1, Notre Dame defeated what was thought to be a not-very-good Louisville team, 35-17. It took a while for the Irish to take control, though, with the score just 21-14 at halftime. After a week off, Notre Dame returned home and crushed New Mexico, 66-14, before the Georgia loss.
Notre Dame QB Ian Book has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 828 yards, eight touchdowns and two picks, both of which he threw vs. Georgia. He's been sacked four times, but interestingly enough, none of those came against Georgia. Louisville sacked him three times. Can UVa get some pressure on Book? Amazingly, UVa is tied for first with Florida and Ohio State with 20 sacks. Book's gotten pretty good protection, so I think that will be a big key. If Notre Dame hurts UVa, it is likely to be through the air, so any pressure the Cavaliers can get on him is a huge plus. He's a good runner, though, and is second on the team with 145 rushing yards and a pair of scores.
Tony Jones Jr. is the Irish's top running back, with 148 yards (4.9 ypc) and a touchdown. He had 115 yards vs. Louisville but then just 17 against New Mexico and 21 vs. Georgia. Notre Dame's rushing offense ranks just 85th. At receiver, Chase Claypool is a big, 6-foot-4, 229-pound target who leads the team with 15 catches for 256 yards and two TDs. Tight end Cole Kmet is a load as well (6-5, 250) and has nine receptions for 108 yards and a score. Notre Dame's passing offense ranks 25th.
Virginia's rush defense is 12th, so it should be able to keep the Irish's attack in check. It did a good job of limiting Florida State star Cam Akers. UVa's pass defense, which ranks 34th, will be tested, though. Pressure, pressure, pressure on Book. And since he's good at escaping it, contain him whenever possible. UVa has had trouble with that at times. The Wahoos could easily be first in sacks by themselves with the number of sacks that seemed to have gone through their fingertips.
Meanwhile, the Irish's pass defense ranks 16th, and its rush defense is 110th. And UVa likes to move the ball in the air and is the best at that, so these differences will be interesting to watch play out on the field. UVa likes to use the short- and medium-passing games, but Notre Dame will probably do a pretty good job of slowing it down. Can the Cavs figure out ways to move the ball on the ground? One positive is Notre Dame is at the opposite end of the spectrum on sacks recorded: just four through three games, which, averaged out, ranks tied for 107th. So Perkins will hopefully have some time, which he's seemingly had little of at times.
Bronco Mendenhall faced Notre Dame three times while the coach at BYU with varying degrees of success -- but all losses. In 2005, Mendenhall's first season, the Cougars, which finished 6-6, lost at No. 9 Notre Dame, 49-23. In 2012, BYU, which went 8-5, took No. 5 Notre Dame to the brink in South Bend, losing 17-14. That was one of several close calls for the Irish that year, which went 12-0 then got walloped by Alabama in the BCS national championship. And finally, in 2013, BYU, which went 8-5 that year as well, lost at Notre Dame, 23-13. So Mendenhall's best BYU teams (five seasons of at least 10 wins) never got a chance to face a good Notre Dame team, and he still got close one year to knocking the Irish off.
The last time UVa faced a top-10 team on the road came in 2014 at Florida State, with the Cavaliers losing 34-20. Those Wahoos were talented and should've gone bowling, but were undisciplined and finished 5-7. Still, I would hope this team can fare better than that one. So I think a reasonable goal is for these Wahoos to lose by no more than 13 points.
OK, prediction time. I think Virginia's mindset is going to be great. The guys took a little vacation for a quarter or two last week. It happens to the best teams. What's important is they recovered. Defensive end Eli Hanback was quoted as saying this week, "We aren't up there to sightsee," so on the surface, they are definitely treating this trip the right way, and don't sound as if they'll be taken in by the mystique of playing in South Bend. I'm pretty sure the focus will be there this week, and it will be easier for the Cavaliers to have their heads in the game than the Fighting Irish, because of what they went through last weekend on the road. It wouldn't surprise me to see UVa take a lead early. Eventually, though, I do think Notre Dame will battle back and be a little too much for the Cavaliers, who put up a good fight but come up short.
Notre Dame 31, Virginia 20
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