Week 8 college picks

Last week: 10-1 Season: 62-18

Week 7 was a big bounceback week for me in picks after going 3-4 in Week 6. This schedule is a little light on big games after last week’s huge headliners. I’m on vacation this week at the Outer Banks, and a solid internet connection is lacking. So I’m pretty much only doing score predictions. That said, Virginia’s game at home against Duke seems like it could be pretty pivotal to the Cavaliers’ season. So while I’m off this week, UVa certainly can’t afford to be.

Friday's game
Pittsburgh (4-2) at Syracuse (3-3), 7 p.m. ESPN
Pittsburgh 30, Syracuse 27

Saturday's games
No. 3 Clemson (6-0) at Louisville (4-2), Noon ABC
Clemson 45, Louisville 21

Georgia Tech (1-5) at Miami (3-3), Noon, ACC Network
Miami 34, Georgia Tech 20

N.C. State (4-2) at Boston College (3-3), Noon, ACC Network Extra
Boston College 31, N.C. State 28

No. 12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington (5-2), 3:30 p.m. ABC
Oregon 27, Washington 24

North Carolina (3-3) at Virginia Tech (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
North Carolina 31, Virginia Tech 27

No. 17 Arizona State (5-1) at No. 13 Utah (5-1), 6 p.m. Pac-12 Network
Utah 27, Arizona State 20

No. 16 Michigan (5-1) at No. 7 Penn State (6-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Penn State 23, Michigan 17

Florida State (3-3) at Wake Forest (5-1), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Wake Forest 41, Florida State 38

Duke (4-2) at Virginia (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Blue Devils, like most Coastal teams, have been up and down, but for the most part, they’ve been one of the division’s more consistent teams. After getting blown out by Alabama, Duke won easily over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee, and, most impressively, Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Back in Durham the next week, Duke overcame a 23-point deficit against Pittsburgh but ultimately fell, 33-30, before downing Georgia Tech last week, also at home. As a result, the Devils are tied with the 'Hoos for first in the division.

Virginia is struggling, having not scored a touchdown in six straight quarters. It needs to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns, a problem that was a fatal flaw at Miami, and that could be especially important against Duke, which has put up at least 30 points in every game after the Alabama defeat.
The Wahoos aren’t likely to win this contest in the low 20s. Duke’s rush offense ranks 46th, and the pass offense, now led by QB Quentin Harris, ranks just 111th. Those aren’t overly impressive numbers. But the Devils are tied for first in red-zone scoring, having scored either a TD or field goal on every trip inside the 20. Virginia’s defense, now without All-America cornerback Bryce Hall, could have its hands full.

Meanwhile, Duke’s rush defense is 38th, and its pass defense comes in 70th. Watch out for Duke’s ability to sack the quarterback. The Devils rank 29th in sack percentage, and Virginia has had a big problem protecting Bryce Perkins. If the offensive line can hold up a bit better, UVa needs to make sure it takes advantage of what has been a rather soft pass defense and score multiple touchdowns. Otherwise, Duke will take first place in the division and officially put Virginia in a tailspin.

The Cavaliers have had the recent advantage in the series, having won the past four meetings, and they’ve scored at least 28 points in each of those victories. But the combination of the offense being in a rut and Hall’s absence are two obstacles that could be too difficult to overcome to beat a solid team like Duke.
Duke 28, Virginia 24

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