A few early UVa hoops observations; plus, game-by-game predictions

Welcome to the ninth annual edition of me predicting the results of each UVa men's basketball regular-season game. I think Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country if not the best coach, and yet I pretty much always underrate how his team performs. This season is off to a similar start. In my season preview last week, I picked Virginia to lose to Syracuse.

So of course, the Cavaliers promptly smacked down the Orange in the Carrier Dome, 48-34, holding them to their fewest points since World War II (Click here for my HoosPlace.com recap). So that means Bennett is already a win ahead of my prediction.

On Sunday, Virginia opened its home schedule by holding James Madison to 34 points, too, and finding its offense a bit in a 65-34 win. The Dukes actually challenged the 'Hoos a bit better than the

Each year, Tony Bennett seems to be thinking,
"How can this season's defense be better
than last season's?"

Orange, even holding leads at 15-14 and 17-16. But UVa eventually took control, especially in the second half.

A few early observations through two games:

• Mamadi Diakite is going to be really fun to watch as he works himself into an NBA draft pick. He's averaging 15.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2 blocks, and he's demonstrated the ability to hit 3s, a midrange game, and aggressiveness in getting to the hoop.
• Early on, it looks like Jay Huff is going to have his breakout season, as expected. He's averaging 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in 28 minutes per game. And he's been doing it without shooting 3s so far: He's 0 for 0, instead scoring down low and on rebounds and alley-oops.
• Kihei Clark is stepping nicely into his leadership role. Without Ty Jerome beside him, more of the onus is on him to start the offense, and he's struggled a bit, with three turnovers per game. But he's also averaging 7.5 points, 6.5 assists, and 7 rebounds. The 5-foot-6 sophomore had an absurd 11 rebounds at Syracuse as he came up three assists shy of a triple-double. He's not afraid to shoot the deep ball so far, either, but he's made just 3 of 13.
• Braxton Key is doing Braxton Key things. It'll be interesting to see how long he can keep this up, but the senior is averaging a double-double at 10.5 points and 10 rebounds. He's added four assists and three steals. He's 2 for 8 on 3s so far, making 2 out of 3 against JMU and 0 out of 5

  

  Mamadi threw one down against JMU ...

  at Syracuse. Simply put, he's a glue guy yes, but he's more than that. He's a stat sheet stuffer.
• Kody Stattmann has been a revelation. The sophomore from Australia didn't see the floor much last season and struggled when he did. But through two games, including one start vs. JMU, he's averaging 6.5 points and 2.5 rebounds. He's only 1 of 9 from downtown, but he's scoring in other ways, being pesky on defense, and turned a JMU turnover into a surprisingly vicious breakaway dunk.
• Casey Morsell has two starts and is as impressive as advertised on defense, but his offense isn't there yet. He has just one 3 against Syracuse for his only points.
• The offense as a whole is lacking, but this isn't at all surprising and no reason to panic. The Syracuse zone was a tough first game assignment with new pieces minus the Big Three, but JMU looked more like a team that was beginning to figure it out a bit. Last season's offense was spectacular when looking at efficiency and also went above the 70-point mark consistently. It'll be a bit more of a slog this year, more like UVa offenses of several seasons ago.
• This defense, though, wow. It is mean, it is long, and it may be better than last season. JMU is a CAA team, but it is picked to finish a respectable fourth in that conference. And Syracuse is likely a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, but still, it is an ACC team. The Wahoos held both to

  

  ... but so did Kody. (Wow)

  34 points.
• Transfer guard Tomas Woldetensae started against Syracuse but did not score. Then, he was in a boot for the JMU game, and Bennett said afterward he hurt his foot but didn't give a timetable for his return. Forward Francisco Caffaro (aka "Papi") has been out for both games after having a procedure to relieve pressure in his thigh after getting kneed there.

OK, on to the game-by-game predictions. First, a look at how I've done in previous seasons, with the difference in estimated victories and actual victories at the end of each line (remember, this only looks at the regular season):

My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9): +2

My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7): +1

My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7): +4

My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2): +1

My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +4

My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5): -1

My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7): +1

My 2017-18 prediction: 20-10 (11-7); actual record: 28-2 (17-1): +8

My 2018-19 prediction: 26-4 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +2

Here we go:

at Syracuse - L (actual: W, 48-34)

vs. JMU - W (actual: W, 65-34)

vs. Columbia - W

vs. Vermont - W

vs. Massachusetts in Uncasville, Conn. - W

vs. Arizona State or St. Johns's in Uncasville, Conn. - W

vs. Maine - W

at Purdue - L

vs. North Carolina - W

vs. Stony Brook - W

vs. Navy - W

vs. Virginia Tech - W

at Boston College - W

vs. Syracuse - W

at Florida State - L

at Georgia Tech - W

vs. N.C. State - W

at Wake Forest - W

vs. Florida State - W

vs. Clemson - W

at Lville - L

vs. Notre Dame - W

at North Carolina- L

vs. Boston College - W

at Pittsburgh - W

at Virginia Tech - W

vs. Duke - L

at Miami - W

vs. Louisville - W

Prediction: 24-6 (15-5 ACC)

A 24-6 record would put the reigning national champions firmly in No. 2 seed territory for the NCAA tournament, with the outside possibility of a No. 1 seed if things fell right. A 15-5 ACC mark should put the team in the top three of the conference standings. Other than the losses I marked, I think some other trouble games I have identified as wins are vs. North Carolina, vs. N.C. State, at Miami, and vs. Louisville. I would be very happy if Bennett could pull off such a record in what is a rebuilding year. A 24-6 regular-season finish, top-eight NCAA seed, and run to at least the Sweet 16 would truly mean this team reloads, it doesn't rebuild. Remember, the best part about this year is we as fans can really just enjoy the journey with the pressure off. Watch the team develop and grow, overcome obstacles, and hopefully max out its potential. We will see what that equals at the end of the season.